Exploring the "Why" of Donovan's Decline: The Running Game

This is the second post in a series examining the possible explanations for McNabb’s decline from the performance of his peak years (2004-2006).

Read the first part of this analysis: The Offensive Line.

* * *

Running Game

Let’s move on from the big uglies. Want to set us up, Derek?

And it’s not like McNabb got any help from the running game.  The addition of Weaver kept it from being a complete loss, but I again think it’s funny that people expect McNabb to not be the least bit affected by Brian Westbrook going from “pretty much the entirety of the offense” to “he’s out again this week, isn’t he?”

This is a relatively easy narrative. Everyone’s been calling for a more balanced attack since Andy arrived in Philly, and recently the running game hasn’t even been any good.

DVOA, a Football Outsiders stat, shows the effectiveness of the running game. Clearly that effectiveness has trailed off drastically over the last two years. Possible easy explanation for that: Brian Westbrook no longer being Brian Westbrook.

DYAR shows the actual production, rather than just the effectiveness, of the running game. This is normally an individual stat, but I ran the numbers for all running backs to calculate total production from all backs with 20 or more rushes in a season.

The more Andy dials up running plays, the higher the DYAR. You can see, for example, that while the effectiveness of the running game (DVOA) went up slightly from 2008 to 2009, the rushing attack was actually used less last year — lowering the overall production from backs.

Another statistic from Football Outsiders, Power Success, calculates the rate of success of short yardage runs. This one includes all rushers, including quarterbacks, which makes it a little less dependant on running backs and more dependant on the offensive line’s ability to get that 1-2 yard push. And Power Success tells a similar story to the others: great year in 2007, fall off to 2008.

Now that we’ve seen the raw numbers, let’s put all of these stats together by analyzing how the Eagles perform against the rest of the league in all of these statistics:

Here you go. DVOA (rushing efficiency) rank, DYAR (total RB production per team), and Power Success (rate of success in short yardage) showing the Eagles against the rest of the league. Plus, to see if we can spot any trends, I threw the previously-derived McNabb performance trendline is thrown in as well.

Initial observations:

• You can read this graph to some degree as an analysis of Brian Westbrook’s time as an Eagle. The running back groups he led for the last 7 years only once dipped below average in either DVOA or DYAR, and 2006 to 2007 was his heyday as one of the best runners in the NFL.
• The DVOA and DYAR ranks generally run together, which makes sense since they’re measuring similar things. If you take Andy Reid’s run-pass ratio into account as a given, production is mostly going to fluctuate based on how good/efficient those runners (and the offensive line blocking for them) are.
• However, 2009 shows the first sharp deviation from that trend. Total RB production stayed even with 2008, but the effectiveness of the individual runs was actually way up. It’s easy to deride the running game for poor production last year, but overall effectiveness was up from 12th to 5th in the league.
• Power Success highlights something that we as fans often noticed: the 2008 Eagles offense (also known as Year of No Fullback) could not buy a first down. The uptick last year didn’t put the team into the top half of the league, but the addition of Leonard Weaver clearly made a big impact nonetheless.

I think if McNabb’s production only fell from 2007 to 2008, you could make a solid case that the decline in the running game was directly tied to, if it didn’t cause, McNabb’s average to slightly above-average play.

But the problem is that the large drop-off occurred for the 07 season, followed by 2 more plateau years. 2007 was the height of Westbrook’s powers, but McNabb’s production hit a 4-year low — and then didn’t decline further as a result of the rapid decline of the rushing attack (especially in short yardage) during 2008. Donovan’s been constant while the running game bounces around. Clearly there’s still more at play here.

* * *

Stay tuned. An analysis of receiver talent and performance is coming soon.

Want Another Place to Sound Off About McNabb?

Need another place to voice your opinions about McNabb? Don’t like the options you have to comment at Philly.com, or the numerous Eagles blogs out there? Think your voice isn’t worthy of the pristine conditions presented here? Or just can’t get enough amateur opinions?

Well there’s hope for you yet.

Sound off on basically all the questions we’ve been talking about here for a while now at Football Outsiders:

-What do you think the actual trade value is of each quarterback?
-What do you think the Eagles will end up doing with the three quarterbacks this season?
- What do you think Philly should do?

Exploring the "Why" of Donovan's Decline: The Offensive Line

So over the last few weeks I’ve been trying to examine how good Donovan McNabb actually is. It’s easy to bandy around “top-10 or top-12 quarterback” when you’re not citing any numbers, but the stats show otherwise. Here’s the conclusion of the last installment:

The truth is, McNabb is only a little better than average compared to the rest of the league — not just last year, but over the last three years. That’s pretty clear by this graph.

The question, of course, is why? It’s easy to just say he’s getting older, and that’s true. But what has caused this plateau? Is it just McNabb? Or can we isolate some other factors?

Time to do some breakdown. (This was going to be one long post, but that wasn’t working out, so I’m splitting it up into multiple.)

* * *

Offensive Line

Let’s start with the big uglies. After all, the first and easiest offensive excuse after last season is line play. Derek at IgglesBlog sums up that view nicely for us:

Consider too the unsettled state of the offensive line.  That thing was a mess almost the entire season.  And then once they finally did get things straightened out — albeit without their single most dominating guy — Jamaal Jackson blew out his knee and suddenly Nick Cole was snapping balls into his butt and Max Jean-Gilles was again prominently involved.

True, true, and true. But how bad was the O-line? And does a decline up front really explain the last three seasons of stagnant play from McNabb?

I’m not sure there’s any one great metric for calculating pass blocking. But above you have Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Sack Rate (sacks + int. grounding / pass attempt, adjusted for down, distance, and opponent) for the Eagle O-Line from 2000 on.

Overall, it actually looks as though the offensive line has been improving since early in McNabb’s career (although Donovan running around back there less has to help). Even in 2009, which was a shaky year, the numbers are in line with McNabb’s prime years of 04-06. That would suggest, right off the bat, that the front five wasn’t the problem.

But now we have to look to see how the offensive line did compared to the rest of the league and try to give some context to the numbers. Somewhat surprisingly, the Eagles have never been that great in this category. Only in 2008, with the last efforts of Tra and Runyun, did the offensive line crack the top ten — and that didn’t correspond to some grand increase in McNabb’s production. However, if you stop the analysis with 2006, there’s probably a good argument to be made that Adj. Sack Rate and McNabb’s production are very closely tied.

The problem is that over the last three years the rate has been extremely variable — yet McNabb’s production remains more or less the same compared to the rest of the NFL.

We’re looking for something that can explain the drop off from 06 to 07, and the subsequent plateau. Protection issues can’t do that for us — at least alone. There must be other, bigger factors at work.

* * *

Make sure to stop by over the next few days. I’ll be hitting running game, wide receiver play, and more to try to find that missing link that can explain McNabb’s decline.

Peter King Chimes In On Eagles QB Clusterf%$k

Peter King dedicates about 1000 words to the case for trading/trading for Donovan McNabb in his MMQB column. Most of his talk rehashes everything you’ve heard before, so I don’t have a ton to say on it. Just a couple notes.

This is a good opportunity to bash this recurring dialogue:

I think the Eagles should go with Kolb and make the best deal they can for McNabb this offseason, because, basically, it’s Groundhog Day in Philadelphia. Every year’s the same, and I don’t see McNabb getting Philly over the hump and into another Super Bowl.

There are plenty of reasons to argue for a McNabb trade. But this one is just stupid, largely because it gets repeated so often. It comes from this desire to change something, anything. And since people realize Andy Reid isn’t going anywhere, McNabb is the next best thing.

Having consistency is good. Having great players who keep you in the hunt every year is good. Has McNabb been good enough for the Eagles to win a Super Bowl? Absolutely. Could he be good enough next year for that? Absolutely. The idea that McNabb should go just because he’s been around and the team’s never gotten over the hump is silly. If you think McNabb should go, say why the team would be better without him. Don’t call for change for change’s sake.

Also, King lays out the case for sending a 1st round pick for McNabb:

So why would I want to pawn him off on another quarterback-needy team when I don’t think he’s a top-five quarterback? Simple. Because he’s a top-10 or top-12 quarterback, and they’re too hard to find to let one pass when he’s just sitting there for the taking. McNabb would shore up any team’s most important position for the next half-decade. Some team’s going to take Jimmy Clausen between, say, the fourth and 20th pick in the first round, and whoever takes him is going to have no idea if he’s the long-term solution at quarterback.

We can debate about whether McNabb’s really a top-10 or -12 quarterback anymore, but you can certainly make the argument. I sincerely doubt any GMs listen to Peter King for advice, but the Eagles front office must be happy that their demands for a 1st round pick are finding acceptance in the mainstream media.

Finally, an interesting note about a guy the Eagles may be targeting in the middle rounds to groom in that third QB spot:

Fordham University, not exactly a football hotbed, had its pro day for NFL coaches and scouts Friday in the Bronx. Fordham has a late-round quarterback prospect, John Skelton. The Eagles were at the workout with not one coach but two — quarterback coach James Urban and offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg. Maybe it means nothing, but it’s pretty rare for two coaches to be looking at a late-round quarterback — especially when you’re as packed at quarterback as the Eagles are.

The Eagles are obviously in the market for a long term prospect, since all of their QBs don’t have contracts past this year. But that does seem pretty amazing that they’d send two of their top offensive minds to go look at this guy. Tommy Lawlor has the briefest of scouting reports on him.

Update: Don’t miss KSK’s always hilarious takedown of MMQB here.

Also, tune in later for the explosive third part of the “How Good is McNabb Really?” series. You don’t want to miss this one…

Large Price Tags for Eagles' Quarterbacks

Until now, we’ve gotten few reports about what the Eagles are looking for in return for their quarterbacks.

Jason La Canfora on the NFL Network talked to some teams who have at least called the Eagles about their QBs, and got a rough estimate of what they think it would take to pry away each player:

• Michael Vick — Still a second round pick according to these teams. Again, that’s ridiculously high. The Eagles will have to come down from that bargaining position to get a deal done, but maybe their hoping by asking for a 2, they can get a 3.
• Donovan McNabb — La Canfora says it would take “at least a first round pick to start any real cogent discussions.” This makes a lot of sense. It’s hard to imagine the Eagles getting much more than a 1st round pick for McNabb, but once one team is willing to go there you never know.
• Kevin Kolb — Remarking on the Seattle rumors, La Canfora says the Eagles would want both of the Seahawks 1st round picks (#6 and #14): “that’s how serious they are about Kevin Kolb being part of their future.”

Very interesting stuff.

Seahawks Only Asking About Kevin Kolb?

And the Seahawks sources strike back:

A source in Seattle has informed Comcast SportsNet that the Seahawks have contacted the Eagles about Kevin Kolb, contradicting a report that the team has asked about Donovan McNabb as well.

Asked about the possibility of acquiring McNabb, the Seattle source said it would leave the Seahawks in the same position they’re in with veteran Matt Hasselbeck – but wouldn’t elaborate further.

Interesting turn of events, so soon after the report that Pete Carroll really wanted either McNabb or Kolb. It’s not entirely surprising though. I’m sure there are a number of teams that would rather have Kolb than McNabb. He’s seen around the league, and presumably at the NovaCare Complex, as the next Matt Schaub or Aaron Rodgers — guys who have emerged as great quarterbacks after sitting behind veterans for a few years. His youth and upside are tremendously attractive.

Yet, more importantly, Kolb is seen as a better — or at least safer — alternative to drafting a quarterback high in the draft. Sam Bradford seems like a solid prospect and likely to go in the top 5, if not #1 overall to the St. Louis Rams. Jimmy Clausen’s stock is free falling. And none of the other quarterbacks look like immediate contributors in the mold of a Matt Sanchez, Joe Flacco, or Matt Ryan.

Every team looking for a young franchise quarterback they can build around has to be salivating at Kolb. But of course, you have to imagine Andy Reid feels the same way. McNabb may still be the present for the Eagles, but Kolb is undoubtably the future. He’s very valuable, and barring some sort of massive, unforeseen Herschel Walker/Ricky Williams trade, Kolb isn’t going anywhere.

Of course, maybe Pete Carroll has already been rebuffed in his attempts to get Kolb, and has been pushed by the Eagles front office toward McNabb. Emphasizing that aquiring McNabb has the same effect as keeping Matt Hasselbeck is a good bargaining argument. It’s ridiculous and false, with Hasselbeck a shell of his former self over the last two years, but still a good way to try to gain back a little bit of leverage after someone told Sal Pal how much the Seahawks were interested.

Report: Pete Carroll Gunning Hard for Eagles QBs

In an appearance on Mikey Miss on  97.5  yesterday, Sal Pal  dropped  a bomb  with perhaps the new frontrunner for Donovan McNabb’s services:

Paolantonio says that Seattle coach Pete Carroll wants to win right away, and in Carroll’s mind that includes getting McNabb or Kolb.  And Paolantonio says that he now firmly believes that McNabb will be traded by the Eagles at some point in the offseason.

This is clearly a huge development for the McNabb trade front. The Seahawks have apparently been calling “non-stop” about the two Eagles quarterbacks — the first really substantial interest we’ve heard about any team in the NFL.

I dismissed Seattle from the McNabb equation initially for three reasons. One, they clearly have time and the need to rebuild. Two, they have the ability to go grab a young QB high in the draft (sitting at 6 and 15 in the first round is a nice way to start turning around a franchise). And three, I figured Carroll, with all of his new college experience, would covet “recruiting” and mentoring his own signal-caller.

But while this all could still turn out to be moot, the ego factor on Carroll probably shouldn’t be downplayed. He’s a man who got total control of the Seahawks this offseason and has the ability to make whatever football decisions he wants. If he wants to make a play for a veteran signal-caller, there’s no one who’s going to stop him.

* * *

The other interesting nugget from Sal Pal’s radio appearance was his announcement that the market for Michael Vick has gone cold. This isn’t a total surprise considering the Eagles had to pick up Vick’s bonus. And it may just be a lull before we get closer to the draft. If the Eagles aren’t stuck on a super high asking price, I have to imagine there are teams who would be interested.

In the Court of Public Opinion

Ah, public opinion. That fickle devil. In many ways — if not in a pure football sense — mass opinion matters in the whole debate about Donovan McNabb. It infiltrates everything.

For example, take Gonzo’s latest piece in the Inquirer, addressed to the Eagles front office:

From a football standpoint, you might not want to hurry. That’s understandable, because it would likely hurt the bargaining process. But if you’re going to take this slowly and mull your options, then you have to accept that more reports like Fox29’s will inevitably surface.

As long as all three quarterbacks remain in town, fans and the media will talk about the situation and wonder who exactly is in charge down there. You guys may not like it, but that’s the way things are at the moment, and there’s really nothing you can do about it until you pen the final chapter of a tale we’ve all grown tired of reading.

Gonzo’s right. The truth is, until the front office definitively closes the door on the McNabb era or gives him a new contract and sends Kevin Kolb on his merry way (plus Michael Vick as the inconvenient sideshow), no one is going to stop talking about the Eagles QB Clusterf%$k.

Even during next season.

This is one of the reasons I think it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to stick with McNabb another year. You have an offseason of turmoil and second-guessing. A season where McNabb is on the edge of his seat the whole time. And then another offseason where you have to go through all of this crap again — except by then the team risks losing Kevin Kolb, McNabb’s value has gone down, and the only way to trade him is to franchise him (and that always works out harmoniously).

Without any definitive answer, the Philly public and media hounds are going to continue to ask the same questions. Has Andy Reid said McNabb is the starting QB next year at least 100 times? Yes. Will anyone ever stop asking? No.

Want another reason public opinion matters? Two words for you: Brian. Dawkins.

The front office knows that they screwed up last year with Dawk. They kept reiterating that he would be in midnight green for 2009. Then when they low-balled Dawkins and let him walk to Denver, the entire city was up in arms. Of course, guys like Andy and Joe Banner tried to spin it as Dawkins left to take huge money elsewhere, but everyone knew that wasn’t exactly the case.

You would think the front office would have learned from that public relations disaster  (although the hole at safety is something to consider too). Donovan is not as loved as Brian Dawkins, but the overall point is the same. Either put up with the public backlash and media circus or be upfront and decisive about what’s going to happen next year.

Another problem: there’s been no evidence of a locker room split since T.O. left, but with so much up in the air, it’s tough to rule that out in this situation either.

This team has lost so much veteran leadership over the past few years. Guys like Westbrook and Runyan and Dawkins, who stood toe to toe with Donovan in the locker room and on the field, aren’t here any more. Not only is there a lack of leadership to keep everyone unified and quiet, there are clearly a lot of young players who probably wouldn’t mind turning the page.

We all know Celek and Kolb are best buddies. Sheldon probably wouldn’t mind saying some of the things Westbrook just went on air about. I’m sure there are other, typically quieter personalities who also have a say. You know DeSean wouldn’t stay quiet long. All it takes is one public quote, one anonymous locker room presence, and everything unravels to 2005… (shudder)

The point is not that such a thing will happen. Maybe the Eagles keep all three quarterbacks and win the Super Bowl. Or maybe the status quo remains for a year and Donovan’s trade value simply decreases. But nothing exists in a vacuum — not even “purely football” decisions.

As long as the Eagles don’t resolve their QB situation, it’s not an embarrassment of riches — as Andy would like you to believe. The situation is more like a ticking time bomb. The sooner it’s defused, the better.