Hot Read: Competing Values on Heisman Winner

On Wednesday, Tommy Lawlor discussed the possibility that the Eagles could sign likely free agent Reggie Bush. The idea is fun to think about, especially from a video game all-star team perspective. But the debate over Bush actually raises an interesting dichotomy of Eagles front office philosophies.

First, there’s the motivation to bring in dynamic, multi-dimensional offensive players. Especially at running back the Eagles show little interest in anyone who can’t catch the football as well as they can run it. And when they do, often the results aren’t pretty (see: Hunt, Tony).

And yet, there’s also the guiding conviction not to overpay for second-string players. You can see this all over the field, where the Eagles look for bargains and/or young players to fill in as back ups, but especially at running back. Correll Buckhalter never required a large investment before the team let him walk away for four years, $10 million last offseason.

When the Eagles signed Chad Hall — the poor man’s Reggie Bush — these two strategies came together perfectly. But with Bush himself, those values would clash and I tend to think frugality would win out.

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Recently I’ve seen a couple of positive remarks about Trevard Lindley, and how we shouldn’t count him out for an increased role in 2011. I hope he can improve and make a significant contribution in year two, but in limited snaps last season his numbers were ugly. Just compare him to Dimitri Patterson, everyone’s favorite whipping boy:

Patterson — Target Rate = 19.4%, Catch Rate = 62.8%, Pass Defensed Rate = 7.7%

Lindley — Target Rate = 19.1%, Catch Rate = 65.8%, Pass Defensed Rate = 0%

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Kevin Kolb rumors all converge on Arizona, where the latest analysis examined the possibility that the Cardinals could offer a deal similar to what Houston sent Atlanta for Matt Schaub: a first round swap and two second round picks. Just for the record, that kind of deal would be perfectly in line with Kolb being worth a mid-to-late first rounder. According to the draft trade value chart and accounting for one of the second rounders being a future pick, that 2007 deal assessed Schaub’s value as equal to the 21st overall selection.

Why the Eagles Will Trade Out of the First Round

So this post comes with a fair possibility of being completely wrong come Thursday night, when the Eagles decide to buck the trends and trade their entire draft for Eric Berry. I considered calling it “Why the Eagles Won’t Trade Up,” but when making bold predictions, why play it safe? After all, this reflects what I think is mostly likely to happen tomorrow in primetime: another trade down.

Derek over at Iggles Blog, thoughtful as always, went over the things that wouldn’t suprise him this year in the draft, including trading up:

It’s been awhile, but the Eagles showed with Jerome McDougle and Shawn Andrews that they wouldn’t hesitate to package picks to move up and get a guy they really wanted/needed.  I think we really could see this here, but it’s going to depend on two factors:  1) What the Eagles think of Haden (the only cornerback you’re trading way up to get) and 2) What they think of all the corners after Haden and Wilson.

First of all, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Eagles saw some player they really wanted and jumped up to get him — simply because anything can happen on draft day. And I totally agree with Derek that a lot has to do with the cornerbacks in the draft, which (as I’ve said before) is the Eagles #1 need by far. But I think there are many more reasons to think Andy Reid & Co. will trade back rather than forward.

Let’s first look at the history, before seeing why trading back especially makes sense this year:

2007: Three years ago the Eagles were in basically the same place as now, with the #26 overall pick. Instead of picking there, they traded back (with Dallas) for second (#36 overall — Kevin Kolb), third (Stewart Bradley), and fifth round picks (Brent Celek C.J. Gaddis). Then the front office stuck with their own second rounder (Victor Abiamiri).

2008: Went into the draft with the 19th overall pick and could have taken a tackle like Jeff Otah, but traded back again with Carolina for a 2009 first rounder and 2008 second and fourth (Mike McGlynn). Then packaged Carolina’s #43 overall to Minnesota, moving back four more spots and finally taking Trevor Laws. Kept own second rounder for DeSean Jackson.

2009: Pre-draft, the Eagles traded away Carolina’s #1 for Jason Peters. They then traded up two spots from #21 for Jeremy Maclin, and stayed with their late-second round pick, scooping up LeSean McCoy.

For those keeping track at home, the Eagles started with 3 firsts and 3 seconds and ended up with 1 first and 5 second round payers

So what can we take from this?

• The Eagles value second round picks. Plain and simple. They never once traded away their own second rounder, and multiple times traded back into the second.
• The only other team that seems to value them that much? The Patriots, who took 4 players in the second round last year and have 3 more picks there this year. That’s good company — these are two smart teams that have figured out something about the value involved in (a) still getting top 60 talent, (b) not paying top dollar, and (c) getting more shots at striking gold by moving back.
• Perhaps because they value their second round picks more now, the Eagles haven’t jumped up in the first since 2004 (including the entire Heckert era, for what that’s worth). It’s easy to say that the Eagles might make a big leap into the top 15, but recent history suggests otherwise. Even the Maclin trade doesn’t prove anything — they didn’t target him in the top 10 and drastically trade up. Instead they gave up a 6th round pick to sntach a guy who practically fell into the team’s lap.
• The other reason not to trade up involves the two guys Derek references above: Jerome McDougle and Shawn Andrews. After spending a boatload on the two in both dollars and draft picks, neither panned out long term. Andy Reid and company may have taken a lesson from those two decisions: mortgaging your draft (and make no mistake, the rest of the 03 and 04 drafts were crap) isn’t worth one player, no matter how talented.

On top of all of those historical reasons, I add a couple specific to this year. First, the new draft set-up. The importance of early second-round picks may be exaggerated by the media, but Andy Reid has said:

I’d love to have that first pick of the second day. Where you can sleep on it, regather your thoughts, which you normally don’t get to do.

Or of course talk to some desperate team and get either a 1st round pick next year or more picks in rounds 2-5 this year. Imagine the power the Eagles would wield going into Friday night if they had the #37 pick from Washington, their own #55, and let’s say… #34 from Detroit, who wanted to grab someone falling in the first round. I think the Eagles front office would jump at that chance.

The second reason pertains to this year’s draft class. One could easily craft a scenario in which both Joe Haden and Kyle Wilson (as well as Berry, Thomas, Iupati, etc.) get drafted in the top 15 or 20 picks. The Eagles may like Wilson, for example, but do they like him enough to ditch their recent history and jump up 5-10 spots to get him? I’m not sure.

And after that first wave of talent, especially in the secondary, there’s a dropoff to guys like Devin McCourty, Kareem Jackson, Patrick Robinson, Nate Allen, and Morgan Burnett. Most of these players, if not all, will still be available in the second round. Why would the Eagles reach for them at 24 if they can drop back 10 spots, gather some more ammo, and still get a shot?

Look, you can take Peter King’s reporting to heart and salivate over Eric Berry or Derrick Morgan or whomever. By Thursday’s draft, you might get your wish and see the Eagles make a big splash. But try not to be too surprised if you watch all night and don’t see a single new player try on the Midnight Green…

Large Price Tags for Eagles' Quarterbacks

Until now, we’ve gotten few reports about what the Eagles are looking for in return for their quarterbacks.

Jason La Canfora on the NFL Network talked to some teams who have at least called the Eagles about their QBs, and got a rough estimate of what they think it would take to pry away each player:

• Michael Vick — Still a second round pick according to these teams. Again, that’s ridiculously high. The Eagles will have to come down from that bargaining position to get a deal done, but maybe their hoping by asking for a 2, they can get a 3.
• Donovan McNabb — La Canfora says it would take “at least a first round pick to start any real cogent discussions.” This makes a lot of sense. It’s hard to imagine the Eagles getting much more than a 1st round pick for McNabb, but once one team is willing to go there you never know.
• Kevin Kolb — Remarking on the Seattle rumors, La Canfora says the Eagles would want both of the Seahawks 1st round picks (#6 and #14): “that’s how serious they are about Kevin Kolb being part of their future.”

Very interesting stuff.

The Vick Watch: Latest Notes and Rumors

Checking in with a few interesting notes on the Michael Vick front.

First, Michael Lombardi at NFP says the Eagles won’t move Vick for less than a 2nd round pick:

You think that’s too much? Not really if you understand that if they hold on to him and he becomes a free agent in 2011, then signs with another team, the Eagles would probably get a compensatory third-round pick. So it makes sense to ask for a second rounder right now.

I’m not sure where Lombardi gets his information, or why he’s so sure the Eagles would get a 3rd rounder. It seems like he’s counting on Vick signing a large deal in free agency 2011 and playing relatively well — as, for example, Asante Samuel did to give the Patriots a 3rd round pick in last year’s draft.

That combination of factors seems awfully unlikely to me, but if it’s true, this would be one very good reason to keep Vick around. Read more about how compensatory picks are awarded here.

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Sam over at IgglesBlog has a great write-up on what exactly it means for the Eagles to keep Vick past the $1.5 million bonus due March 10th.

From an Eagles perspective, they are really buying a draft pick for $1.5 million. So in order for paying Vick $1.5 million to make sense, the expected present value of that pick must be $1.5 million, above and beyond what that pick would make in comp.

This is something I’ve also been thinking about. Substitute “draft pick” for “deal” in this equation: Later deal > Deal now + $1.5 million bonus. The Eagles would have to be thinking this in order to think about paying Vick.

That equation does change based on a number of other factors — such as how uncertain the front office is about who will start under center in 2010, what Vick would net the Eagles as a compensatory pick, whether Andy still loves the wildcat offense.

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A column on Fox Sports gives maybe the most pessimistic take of he Vick trade market to date:

All Vick proved last season is that he could keep his nose clean. Besides, now that he’s being totally honest and telling everyone that he didn’t work as hard as he could have with the Falcons, why does it mean that he deserves a fat new deal and a starting gig? The Eagles may be stuck with Vick until a team loses a starter in training camp.

Can’t say I totally disagree. As an Eagles fan, though, I hope some team is willing to take the chance on Vick’s excitement-factor.

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Oh, and also, Vick seems to like the Panthers’ uniforms. For the record, I think Vick would be ecstatic to be anywhere competing for a starting job next season.

Spuds Speaks on Vick, Eagles QB Situation

Spadaro:

To me, the true value of making that decision to sign Vick has yet to be determined. I wonder, looking ahead, what is next for Vick and for the Eagles. The entire quarterback situation is a fascinating one, and head coach Andy Reid is correct when he says the Eagles have a great situation there with Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb and Vick all under contract through 2010 (Vick’s deal is a team option worth a reported $5.2 million). How many teams have three quarterbacks who have won games in the NFL?

At the same time, it would be highly, highly unusual to have all three playing in ‘10 on the final year of their contracts. Imagine the constant questions and scrutiny and the endless speculation about the future. It would seem — and this is merely my perspective — that the Eagles would be best served to listen to any offers that might be forthcoming and use the quarterbacks as assets and see how they can strengthen the roster by dealing a quarterback or two should solid offers reach the trading table.

Because we all value his expert opinion so much. Hmmmm, the Eagles should listen to all offers. So brilliant.