In the Court of Public Opinion

Ah, public opinion. That fickle devil. In many ways — if not in a pure football sense — mass opinion matters in the whole debate about Donovan McNabb. It infiltrates everything.

For example, take Gonzo’s latest piece in the Inquirer, addressed to the Eagles front office:

From a football standpoint, you might not want to hurry. That’s understandable, because it would likely hurt the bargaining process. But if you’re going to take this slowly and mull your options, then you have to accept that more reports like Fox29’s will inevitably surface.

As long as all three quarterbacks remain in town, fans and the media will talk about the situation and wonder who exactly is in charge down there. You guys may not like it, but that’s the way things are at the moment, and there’s really nothing you can do about it until you pen the final chapter of a tale we’ve all grown tired of reading.

Gonzo’s right. The truth is, until the front office definitively closes the door on the McNabb era or gives him a new contract and sends Kevin Kolb on his merry way (plus Michael Vick as the inconvenient sideshow), no one is going to stop talking about the Eagles QB Clusterf%$k.

Even during next season.

This is one of the reasons I think it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to stick with McNabb another year. You have an offseason of turmoil and second-guessing. A season where McNabb is on the edge of his seat the whole time. And then another offseason where you have to go through all of this crap again — except by then the team risks losing Kevin Kolb, McNabb’s value has gone down, and the only way to trade him is to franchise him (and that always works out harmoniously).

Without any definitive answer, the Philly public and media hounds are going to continue to ask the same questions. Has Andy Reid said McNabb is the starting QB next year at least 100 times? Yes. Will anyone ever stop asking? No.

Want another reason public opinion matters? Two words for you: Brian. Dawkins.

The front office knows that they screwed up last year with Dawk. They kept reiterating that he would be in midnight green for 2009. Then when they low-balled Dawkins and let him walk to Denver, the entire city was up in arms. Of course, guys like Andy and Joe Banner tried to spin it as Dawkins left to take huge money elsewhere, but everyone knew that wasn’t exactly the case.

You would think the front office would have learned from that public relations disaster  (although the hole at safety is something to consider too). Donovan is not as loved as Brian Dawkins, but the overall point is the same. Either put up with the public backlash and media circus or be upfront and decisive about what’s going to happen next year.

Another problem: there’s been no evidence of a locker room split since T.O. left, but with so much up in the air, it’s tough to rule that out in this situation either.

This team has lost so much veteran leadership over the past few years. Guys like Westbrook and Runyan and Dawkins, who stood toe to toe with Donovan in the locker room and on the field, aren’t here any more. Not only is there a lack of leadership to keep everyone unified and quiet, there are clearly a lot of young players who probably wouldn’t mind turning the page.

We all know Celek and Kolb are best buddies. Sheldon probably wouldn’t mind saying some of the things Westbrook just went on air about. I’m sure there are other, typically quieter personalities who also have a say. You know DeSean wouldn’t stay quiet long. All it takes is one public quote, one anonymous locker room presence, and everything unravels to 2005… (shudder)

The point is not that such a thing will happen. Maybe the Eagles keep all three quarterbacks and win the Super Bowl. Or maybe the status quo remains for a year and Donovan’s trade value simply decreases. But nothing exists in a vacuum — not even “purely football” decisions.

As long as the Eagles don’t resolve their QB situation, it’s not an embarrassment of riches — as Andy would like you to believe. The situation is more like a ticking time bomb. The sooner it’s defused, the better.

Eagles to Make Down Payment on Vick Trade

So all the local papers are reporting it. The Eagles will apparently pay Michael Vick the $1.5 million roster bonus due this Tuesday.

I thought the team would get a suitor by now to take him off their hands. I was wrong. The Eagles wouldn’t be admitting Vick will get the bonus if they were in hard discussions with another team.

So what does this mean long term? Probably not much. At $3.75 million next year, Vick is even more of a steal for any team as a back up or starter. Someone is going to be interested.

We’ll just have to wait and see what the price tag ends up being. I can’t imagine the Eagles are really holding out for a second round pick.

Thoughts on Free Agency Day 1

So the first day of free agency is wrapping up, and we’ve seen a few interesting things happen. If I were you I’d read KSK’s round-up first, but here are a few interesting nuggets to think about:

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The Rams signed A.J. Feeley to a one year, $6 million deal. Too bad for the Eagles, he would have been a nice veteran back-up option to Kolb. But good for Feeley. I imagine he’ll get a chance to start for a year in front of Sam Bradford. (By the way, all the Vick to St. Louis talk just never really made sense to me. Why would you do that when you can draft the best quarterback and start over?)

Maybe the bigger take away for the Eagles though, is that Michael Vick is a great value at only $5 million in 2010. And if a lucky team can get him after the Eagles pay Vick’s bonus in a few days, he will be a ridiculous steal at about $3.5 million.

Maybe I was too much of a downer on likely returns for Vick…

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Remember only a year ago when everyone wanted Anquan Boldin to be an Eagle? Yeah… neither do I. But John Harbaugh apparently does.

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So both Julius Peppers and Chester Taylor bolted to the Windy City?

Do you hear that sound? That’s the air letting out of Philly fan hopes for this free agency.

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If, as reported, Todd Collins and David Carr are attracting interest, teams are really scratching the bottom of the barrel on quarterback talent. I assume the Eagles front office has recieved many, many calls about their QBs.

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Leonard Weaver deserves mad money for his work last season. Maybe he’s even convinced the front office that the fullback position is important?  Count me unconvinced.

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Didn’t notice Lawlor’s post yesterday, when he said:

I’m hearing that at least one team is having talks with the Eagles about Michael Vick.  I don’t know if this is a deal that will get done soon or not.  The other team is trying to figure out how Vick will handle joining a team with a starter already in place.  Can’t be specific with this for now.

“With a starter already in place”? Weird. I can’t imagine Vick would be all that happy with that. But where would that put him? It would have to be a team with a starter and no real back up. In other words, it could be a lot of teams.

Guesses off the top of my head? Jets, Ravens, Chargers, Lions, Bucs.

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Will Witherspoon, we hardly knew you.

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Oh, almost forgot. Breaking news: Reid goes on the radio says McNabb is the Eagles QB for 2010.

Report: Eagles Front Office Divided on McNabb

Very interesting report as free agency breaks. Sources tell Fox 29 that:

Trading McNabb is not going to be easy because internally the Eagles’ brass wants to move him but Andy Reid does not.

If true, this would be an astounding development. We haven’t heard much about dissension within the Eagles front office since Andy consolidated power a few years back. But certainly Reid and Joe Banner (since those are pretty much the only two personalities we’re talking about here — with new GM Howie Roseman likely just a pawn on one side or the other) have slightly different outlooks and motivations. Andy may feel more connected to Donovan and want him to stay, while Banner and others see current public opinion as an opportunity to turn the page.

On the other hand, of course, this report plays far too easily into the stereotypes we already have for Banner & Co. as the evil money-hoarders. Reid appears to have pretty much total control over all football decisions these days, and his new contract proves  that’s with Banner’s approval. Therefore, it would shock me if there really was such a huge gap between Reid and the so-called “Eagles Brass” over this.

Another interesting thing to think about: if Banner is the “fall guy” (not that he’s going anywhere) for a McNabb trade decision, will the Philly fans be happy McNabb is finally gone or be mad at Banner? Sounds like this could give them the opportunity to be both if they want — a win-win for the mindless trolls!

The Vick Watch: Latest Notes and Rumors

Checking in with a few interesting notes on the Michael Vick front.

First, Michael Lombardi at NFP says the Eagles won’t move Vick for less than a 2nd round pick:

You think that’s too much? Not really if you understand that if they hold on to him and he becomes a free agent in 2011, then signs with another team, the Eagles would probably get a compensatory third-round pick. So it makes sense to ask for a second rounder right now.

I’m not sure where Lombardi gets his information, or why he’s so sure the Eagles would get a 3rd rounder. It seems like he’s counting on Vick signing a large deal in free agency 2011 and playing relatively well — as, for example, Asante Samuel did to give the Patriots a 3rd round pick in last year’s draft.

That combination of factors seems awfully unlikely to me, but if it’s true, this would be one very good reason to keep Vick around. Read more about how compensatory picks are awarded here.

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Sam over at IgglesBlog has a great write-up on what exactly it means for the Eagles to keep Vick past the $1.5 million bonus due March 10th.

From an Eagles perspective, they are really buying a draft pick for $1.5 million. So in order for paying Vick $1.5 million to make sense, the expected present value of that pick must be $1.5 million, above and beyond what that pick would make in comp.

This is something I’ve also been thinking about. Substitute “draft pick” for “deal” in this equation: Later deal > Deal now + $1.5 million bonus. The Eagles would have to be thinking this in order to think about paying Vick.

That equation does change based on a number of other factors — such as how uncertain the front office is about who will start under center in 2010, what Vick would net the Eagles as a compensatory pick, whether Andy still loves the wildcat offense.

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A column on Fox Sports gives maybe the most pessimistic take of he Vick trade market to date:

All Vick proved last season is that he could keep his nose clean. Besides, now that he’s being totally honest and telling everyone that he didn’t work as hard as he could have with the Falcons, why does it mean that he deserves a fat new deal and a starting gig? The Eagles may be stuck with Vick until a team loses a starter in training camp.

Can’t say I totally disagree. As an Eagles fan, though, I hope some team is willing to take the chance on Vick’s excitement-factor.

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Oh, and also, Vick seems to like the Panthers’ uniforms. For the record, I think Vick would be ecstatic to be anywhere competing for a starting job next season.

How Good Is Donovan McNabb Really? Part 2!

So a couple weeks back I took a look at some of Football Outsiders’ stats on Donovan McNabb to gauge how good he actually is and how good he might be over the next couple years. Go check out that post if you haven’t already, but in this part I’m going to dive into some other stats to see if they match up to the same picure the DVOA ranks gave us.

I gathered new information from the awesome site Advanced NFL Stats. The author over there, Brian Burke, puts some great stats up on all sorts of statistical parts of the NFL. But he just launched a section that breaks down stats by postions. It’s fabulous stuff. And while the individual player pages aren’t live yet, you can manipulate your url to get to them pretty easily. Check out McNabb here. Westbrook here. DeSean here. Etc.

As I talked about last time, it’s difficult to compare stats across multiple years, because the overall game changes so much. For example with McNabb, his 2009 stats look great compared to his past performance, until you realize many quarterbacks did a lot better last year. To get a true sense of McNabb’s “value” you have to look at how he ranked against the other quarterbacks in each stat. Thus, each stat below is shown based on how McNabb stacked up, not the exact number he got. (Random caveat: all of the Advanced Football Stats include playoff numbers.)

Alright, let’s dive in. The first stat is Win Probability Added (WPA), which “measures each play in terms of how much it increased or decreased a team’s chances of winning the game.” You can get the statistical breakdown of what that means at the link, but Burke also describes how we can utilize it:

WPA is what I call a narrative stat. Its purpose is not to be predictive of future play or to measure the true ability of a player or team. It simply measures the impact of each play toward winning and losing… And although we still can’t separate an individual player’s performance from that of his teammates’, we add up the total WPA for plays in which individual players took part. This can help us see who really made the difference when it matters most. It can help tell us who is, or at least appears to be, “clutch.” It can also help inform us who really deserves the player of the week award, the selection to the Pro Bowl, or even induction into the Hall of Fame.

McNabb has been involved in so many plays with the Eagles that looking at his WPA probably says as much about the offense and other factors as anything else. But it’s still a useful place to start. Where does McNabb rank year over year:

The numbers are incredibly volatile, but the list of top quarterbacks who lead in the category last year looks pretty accurate — so we know it’s worth a look. Not sure if the trendline there is helpful, but I left it on. McNabb has had three relatively middling years according to WPA, after posting two top 10 seasons over a three year span from 2004-2006. Clearly not elite anymore.

Let’s look at some more stats. Success Rate is:

the percent of plays in which the player participated that result in an increase in net expected point advantage. SR measures consistency as opposed to the total magnitude of each play’s outcome.

Ah consistency, McNabb’s bugaboo. Let’s see what it says.

Well that pretty much jives with our expectations, doesn’t it? Only one year (2004) of above average success rate. Everything else since then is mediocre at best. Last year McNabb posted a 47.7% success rate, which basically tied him with the dynamic duo of David Garrard and Kyle Orton. For comparison’s sake, Peyton Manning had 56.6%. Clearly McNabb is not the most accurate or consistent quarterback. Part of that may be on Andy Reid’s offense as well. Would it change under a new quarterback? Tough to tell, but this clearly isn’t (and has never been) a great indicator for Donovan.

Moving on to Adjusted Yards per Attempt, calculated as (PassYds - SkYds - 45*Ints)/(PassAtt + Sks). It’s supposed to be a more accurate indicator than simple YPA.

AYPA is a little more kind to McNabb than the other two stats, placing him at about the top ten mark over the last three years. Certainly that’s a solid, if unspectacular, rank. However, we still see the general trend upwards and then a more recent decline/plateau.

So what to do with all of these numbers? We’ve got our traditional stats, our Football Outsiders, our Advanced NFL Stats. Where’s the middle ground? What’s the takeaway?

I think this might be the point:

I combined all McNabb’s ranks from this time, plus all those from last time, into one handy graph and worked out the average line. I think looking at all of these at once is helpful. Some ideas:

Are any one of these stats “more reliable” than another? Doubt it. But we can see which ones rank McNabb higher and which grade him out lower than average. Derek’s traditional stats, for example, are consistently higher than the other statistics. That goes against the whole “Is McNabb Under-Appreciated?” meme and at least poses the question, “Is McNabb slightly over-estimated?” based on regular numbers. Those stats still follow the same basic trend as everything else though.

2005 was just an off, bad year. The Eagles were in the smack middle of McNabb’s prime and TO and injuries and everything had to ruin it. Should have been a top 5 season for Donovan. Still makes me mad.

The various numbers bunch up much more during McNabb’s most successful seasons. That could be due to a couple different factors. It may be that a good offensive year means many of these stats will show high performance, whereas a mediocre offensive year finds some things that are working and some that are not. Or it could be that as you put up a middle-of-the-bell-curve season it’s easier to slip around a few slots in the QB rankings than it is when you put up spectacular numbers.

Regardless, the average line there makes a pretty good case, by factoring out as much individual statistical bias as possible, that McNabb has been barely more than average over the last few years. Yes, the numbers are all tied to other factors, like wide receiver performance and offensive line play and coaching decisions and defensive variance. But those things have all (except for coaching) changed drastically over the last three years while McNabb’s play stayed fairly constant.

If you believe this analysis, it’s tough to say McNabb is really worth keeping around over Kevin Kolb, at least for much longer. An “average” quarterback just isn’t worth that much — especially if he’s older. His play, and trade value, is only likely to decline from here. We could expect (although not guarantee) at least similar performance from Kolb in a cheaper, younger version with more upside.

Thoughts, ideas, suggestions?

Breathless Rumor: Eagles Will Pay Vick Bonus

So over at PFT the headline “Report: Eagles to pay Vick’s bonus” caught my eye, as it may have yours. And the report says with such certainty:

Citing “multiple league sources,” Geoff Mosher of the Delaware News Journal reports that the Eagles fully intend to pay Michael Vick’s $1.5 roster bonus, due March 5, and trade him thereafter.

Wow. That sounds pretty definitive, like Mosher found out from the Eagles front office that the team has decided to keep, then trade Vick. But what did Mosher actually discover?

Multiple league sources have told me that they anticipate the Eagles paying Vick’s 1.5 [million dollar] roster bonus and holding onto Vick for as long as possible to get the best available offer.

Oh. So the “Eagles fully intend to pay” wasn’t quite so definitive. It was just PFT’s interpretation… of another reporter’s interpretation… of multiple random league sources’ interpretations… of what they think the Eagles might do. In other words, a few league guys shooting the breeze at the combine said they think the Eagles would probably end up holding on to Vick for a little while, which Mosher buried in a story about Leonard Weaver contract negotiations — because it isn’t news.

Then PFT got a hold of that story and the flawless brand of journalism propagated by Florio’s crew turned it into something akin to “OMG LOOK AT THIS BREAKING NEWS: EAGLES TO KEEP VICK.”

Sigh.

Are the "Moons lining up" for a McNabb trade?

Paul Domovitch kicks off the NFL Scouting Combine with this great piece on why the Eagles are in a good position as all the coaches, scouts, and general managers descend on Indianapolis:

Any general manager who tries to tell you he can’t wait to go to war next season with Ryan Fitzpatrick (Buffalo) or Keith Null (St. Louis) or Brady Quinn (Cleveland) or Alex Smith (San Francisco) or JaMarcus Russell (Oakland) or Matt Moore (Carolina) as his starting quarterback is either lying or dumb as a post.

Few of the league’s many quarterback-needy teams are going to have their SOS answered in the draft. Heading into the combine, just two QBs - Sam Bradford, of Oklahoma, and Jimmy Clausen, of Notre Dame - are considered first-round worthy. And both have issues that could affect their draft stock.

It’s a point that’s been made many times, but Domo sums it up as well as anyone. Success in the NFL is predicated on a number of factors, with quarterback play high on the list. So many teams are unsettled at the position that the Eagles having multiple options is fabulous leverage.

This position didn’t come by accident. I’m convinced Andy Reid and others in the front office knew exactly what they were setting themselves up for when they went out on a limb and signed Michael Vick.

Domo also gets a great quote from an NFL person who has “worked with Reid” (and has a fiery, no-bullshit tone that is the exact opposite of Andy’s):

“The timing’s perfect. The moons are lining up to do it. His contract [he has 1 year left on his current deal]. The demand out there for him. It all depends on what they think of Kolb, and every indication I’ve gotten is that Andy loves the [bleep] out of the kid. If they’re convinced he’s ready, you pull the trigger.

“Really, what are they going to do? Try and squeeze 1 more year out of him and then trade him? His trade value never is going to be higher than it is right now, particularly given the [quarterback] market. And if Kolb is legit, sitting on the bench another year isn’t going to make him any more ready.”

Haha, “Andy loves the [bleep] out of the kid.” Just a guess, but I’m thinking the source is John Harbaugh. Any other ideas?

Whoever it is, I agree completely: “The moons [multiple, of course] are lining up to do it.” Considering McNabb’s age, contract, and the stated atrocious quarterback market, even if he has another solid year, Donovan’s value is only going down from this point.

If Andy wants to set the team up best for the long term, he should probably trade McNabb now. If he’s still committed to McNabb personally and thinks they can make one more run, then maybe he won’t just yet. But that decision would probably not be maximizing the value of the loaded QB position the team has now.

Regardless, look forward to a fun week from the NFL combine. Be very scared: Hot Stove Cometh.