Welcome to the Spin Zone: From Andy Reid's Mouth to Our Newspapers

Everything anyone says on the Eagles 2010 quarterback decision gets read over and over, analyzed to death. With good reason — after all, we’re just trying to figure out what the hell is going to happen here.

The problem is, its tough sometimes to tell who’s putting more spin in their words: Andy Reid and other members of the Eagles front office, or the newspaper reporters who write about them.

For example, here’s Les Bowen on Andy’s latest statement regarding McNabb:

There was no indication yesterday that No. 5 will be moving on, however. In fact, when Eagles coach Andy Reid was asked who will pick up the leadership slack with Westbrook gone, he said: “Well, Donovan is obviously here.”

Reid keeps saying McNabb will be here. Perhaps notably, other team officials, instead of enthusiastically endorsing the wisdom of sticking with McNabb, continue to affirm Reid’s status as the guy who will make the call.

“Andy Reid is the leader of this organization, and he speaks for all of us,” general manager Howie Roseman said yesterday.

Andy made a seemingly clear statement: McNabb is the team leader. And Roseman backed him up.

But Bowen puts a particular spin on it, telling his readers that when Howie says “he speaks for all of us,” the new GM isn’t supporting Reid’s decision on the matter, he’s just loading him with the responsibility.

The point here is not that Bowen is wrong. Certainly the Eagles front office is very tricky. We know that even if they were shopping McNabb it would be in their best interest to pretend he’s in Philly to stay.

Rather, the broader point is that any statement from anyone can be read and interpreted to mean whatever they want it to mean. These quotes could be presented as, “Eagles Front Office Stands United, Backs McNabb for 3rd Time.” (Update: Just to prove my point, PFT does exactly that.) Or, they could be used as Les does.

Welcome to the spin zone, everyone. Keep your arms and legs inside the vehicle.

Westbrook's Release Clears the Way for a McNabb Trade?

The idea that the release of Brian Westbrook yesterday makes it easier for the Eagles to trade McNabb is one that has made its way around the internet. Westbrook even made the point on 97.5 this morning.

In an abstract sense I suppose this is the case since general turnover always makes the oldest (and highest-paid) guys less likely to remain. After all, if you’re moving on at running back, why not change quarterbacks as well?

But ultimately I think both decisions are separate football ones.

Westbrook wasn’t even offered a restructured deal to keep him here for less money. He was cut because the organization deemed him not a good enough player anymore. With his knee problems and concussions, Westbrook has suffered a rapid decline in a year. Hopefully he still has some good seasons left in him, but they won’t be with the Eagles — if they come at all.

The decision on McNabb is going to be made based on football reasons as well; the Eagles haven’t instituted some kind of widespread clearing out of veterans. If they get a good enough offer and think Kolb is ready to step in, then they might make a deal. But no one considers McNabb to be as far down the opposite side of his career as Westbrook (ah RB, the youngsters’ position).

Let’s not get carried away with implications.

Eagles Looking at Free Agent QBs?

Most of the NFL chatter has the Eagles sending quarterbacks away. Michael Vick should be out the door (sooner rather than later), and Donovan McNabb may not be far behind.

But if either or both of these QBs are traded, the team’s depth at the position instantly takes a hit. Suddenly the Eagles will be in the market for a quarterback — especially if Kevin Kolb is named the starter, meaning the Eagles need a capable veteran back up.

While Koy Detmer probably won’t be coming out of retirement, here are a couple replacements.

Most likely:

• A.J. Feeley — You get the feeling Feeley wouldn’t mind starting somewhere else. He signed with Carolina during last season thinking that might be a possibility. But is he likely to have it better some place other than Philly? I doubt it.
• Jeff Garcia — Another guy who knows Andy Reid, Philadelphia, and the system. Brought in last year to back up Kolb, he definitely could be an option this offseason if McNabb is jettisoned.

Interesting other options, if the previous reliable ones aren’t available:

• Jason Campbell — Campbell’s a guy who all of us Eagles fans hate, because as bad as the Redskins tend to be, he always gives the Philly defense fits. There’s a good chance he’ll get tendered for a year by Washington while Shanahan grooms a new QB. But if Campbell gets cuts loose , and doesn’t see a bright path to a starting job elsewhere, I could see Andy, Donovan McNabb’s mentor, being an attractive career-reviver.
• Tavaris Jackson — Ought to get tendered. If he doesn’t, could be attractive in Philly since he knows the system.
• Chad Pennington — Will probably get a job starting for another year somewhere ahead of a young draft pick (STL ?). And if he can’t get that why not go back to Parcells in Miami? Mostly just a safe pick if the Eagles can’t grab an obvious choice.

Random fliers:

• Patrick Ramsey — Career backup. Not a fabulous option.
• Dante Culpepper — It would be pretty funny if the Eagles sent McNabb away and brought in his (much less successful) draft peer. Yay, long ball.
• Rex Grossman — Who knows.

Did I miss anyone? Going to put up another post soon on quarterback draft prospects the Eagles might look at this year. Check back for that one.

The Eagles Have a Fetish for What?

So columnist Gwen Knapp (no, I’ve never heard of her either) wrote a strongly-worded argument for keeping Donovan McNabb over at cbssports.com. Most of the article is fine, but there’s one line that I can’t get over:

The Eagles, however, have developed a near-fetish for shedding players as they head toward the periphery of their prime…

Um… what? Since when?

She can’t be talking about Brian Dawkins, who as good as he is, certainly was passed his “prime” when the Eagles let him walk last year. I just can’t, for the life of me, think of anyone who fit that description — especially not a whole bunch that would constitute a “near-fetish,” whatever that means.

Am I just totally forgetting a number of players? If I am, please, enlighten me in the comments.

A Kindred Spirit on Vick Analysis

Apparently I’m not alone in disagreeing with the silly report about Vick not getting traded until the summer. Matt Bowen over on National Football Post gives his take:

What value would the QB have then? Maybe a backup role in another city, but to expect a team to come in — with injury issues at their quarterback position — and make an offer for Vick in August just isn’t sitting well with me today…

I agree that NFL offseason programs can act more as babysitting services, outside of a weekend mini-camp and two weeks of OTA’s, but if you have your eye on Vick as a possible starter, he needs to be there. He needs to be in the playbook, in the meeting room and so on. All of the things we tend to talk and write about come May.

Exactly what I said. I don’t understand why people keep taking the report about the Eagles waiting until as late as the preseason to unload McNabb seriously. Vick’s value goes down after the draft, and rapidly declines once teams go into offseason workouts and training camps.

Very simply, the Eagles are not going to get a better offer than whatever they are talking about right now. Bowen sums it up nicely:

So, if the right offer were floated today, I don’t know how the Eagles could actually turn it down. And, that is why this report is so odd, so strange and so out of character for the NFL buzz.

Could an NFL Lockout Keep McNabb in Philly?

So there’s plenty of discussion about the impending collective bargaining between the NFL and the Players Union (maybe the most talked about story other than the Eagles Offseason QB Clusterf%$k™). Many, many league sources and reporters are suggesting that there’s a high likely of no football in 2011.

I have zero expertise on the complex labor issues at hand. All I know is what I read, and with every day that passes it seems more and more likely there could be a lockout after this season.

So what would that mean for the Eagles quarterback situation? Obviously it’s tough to say exactly, but let’s speculate. We’ll work from the premise that a lockout is likely for 2011, that we’ll miss one year of football — but no more. General thoughts:

• McNabb cannot be counted on to come back after a year off. Entering a season in which he would turn 36, without any football the previous year? That sounds like a bad combination.
• Kevin Kolb will be in the prime of his career. Could an off year stunt his development? Maybe. But he’s still probably a better option than McNabb in the 2012 return year.
• Jettisoning players after and/or during the lockout season could potentially be much easier — and easier to defend/justify. Presumably there would be a great deal of turnover, as some players retire, and a whole host of new, rookie bodies (from two drafts) flood in.

This is actually one of the more interesting reasons why the Eagles might choose to keep McNabb as the starter in 2010. Why take the huge risk of trading McNabb now when you can do so with less rancor, fewer questions, and minor drama in a year? Andy Reid could say he tried his best with McNabb and wish him good luck elsewhere, without stabbing him in the back. Avoiding all that trouble could be worth it to the Eagle front office.

Secondly, if 2011 is a wasted year, what is the point of starting Kolb this season? We’ve established that Kolb is probably going to be worse than McNabb this year (the degree of that difference is the question, of course), but starting him now theoretically sets the Eagles up to play well for the next 5+ years as Kolb hits his prime. However, if there’s no future, or a scarred future, for the league after 2010, why play for that goal?

What I’m saying is it comes down to payoffs (again, assuming we have a league lockout in 2011):

1. McNabb stays, and plays great this year. He leaves during transition — no hard feelings anywhere since McNabb is old and without contract. Kolb starts in 2012 at 28 years old.
2. McNabb stays, and plays mediocre this year. He leaves during transition — no hard feelings anywhere since McNabb is old and not very good any more. Kolb starts in 2012 at 28 years old.
3. McNabb stays, and gets hurt. Kolb steps in at 26 years old and takes over starting job permanently. McNabb leaves during transition — no hard feelings anywhere since he is old and hurt. Maybe he even retires.

If you knew there was going to be a lockout, keeping McNabb seems like a smart move without any massive deterrent. Trading McNabb now, on the other hand, causes all sorts of bad publicity, then sets you up with a potentially worse QB for the one make or break season — without actually helping the future all that much.

Obviously this is all speculation based on how likely a lockout is. If the Eagles are assuming there will be football (and the argument could be easily made that doing so is their responsibility), the best move is probably to get something for McNabb now and start the Kolb era. But, if they see empty locker rooms in 2011, then keeping Donovan for a year could prove more worthwhile.

Why Michael Vick Will Be Out of Town... Soon

You may have seen the report on NFL.com that Michael Vick likely won’t be traded until the preseason:

Sources from two teams who would be in the market for a quarterback said they don’t expect Vick to be dealt until the preseason. That’s when his value could be enhanced by strong preseason performances, a full offseason of work with his team and injuries/uncertainty at quarterback on other teams.

Spending $1.5 million to retain Vick’s services isn’t a significant impediment for a team like the Eagles, and while doing so also guarantees $1 million of the quarterback’s 2010 salary, that isn’t a major financial hindrance, either.

This just doesn’t make any sense to me. The argument seems to be that since Mike Vick hasn’t seen much action at quarterback, teams won’t want to trade for him before they see him in preseason games.

Um, what?

So these admittedly QB-needy teams can wait until after training camp and halfway through the preseason before acquiring their starting quarterback? And a quarterback who, because of his time away, is going to need all the reps he can get in what will likely be a new offense?

Yeah… I don’t buy that.

The only redeeming part of this report is that it helps us consider why the Eagles might choose to wait and pay Vick his bonus. Maybe if the team doesn’t get any offer it considers serious, it will wait until after the draft to send Vick to a team that missed out on its draft target. A conditional draft pick deal for 2011 could still be worked out.

But honestly I don’t see Vick’s value going up after the draft. By waiting, all you’ve done is eliminate a bunch of teams who might have been interested but have suddenly thrown in with Jimmy Clausen, Sam Bradford, or Tim Tebow.

Vick’s value is highest now, while there are a number of teams who could use his services both as a potentially-good starting quarterback and instant attention-grabber (with media coverage that would explode all offseason). As long as that’s the case, I’m sure the Eagles would rather get rid of Vick before they have to pay him $1.5 million. To keep Vick past the beginning of March, the Eagles would have to believe: Later deal > Deal now + $1.5 million bonus. I don’t see it.

Finally, not to repeat the GCobb/Kolb Contract-Gate fiasco all over again, but who are these sources, and what are their motives?

From “teams who would be in the market for a quarterback,” it seems like these two guys have a vested interest in Vick’s market value staying low. Saying that he’s not worth very much until he plays in preseason games sounds like posturing. Obviously teams can’t afford to wait that long. But that has to be part of the argument from one front office to another to lower the asking price for Vick.

$1.5 million might not sound like much in the greater context of things, but for a cap/money-smart team like the Eagles it’s tough to see them paying that to a guy who won’t be playing for them next year. Especially if there’s no likely payoff in terms of trade value.

A Few Notes on Kevin Kolb

First, the final (?) message on Cobb/Kolb Contractgate. Kevin went on 610-WIP earlier today and squashed the reporter who shares his name:

“We haven’t even talked to them as far as I know,” Kolb told WIP host Howard Eskin. “That totally blew me away when that was reported because that was obviously false.

“I don’t even talk to my agent [Jeff Nalley] that much about it because ultimately it doesn’t have anything to do with what we say. So we’re kind of just sitting back right now and letting things iron out. We know there’s still some time here and I’m sure there’ll be a phone call some time in the near future or a meeting. But as of right now we’re just going to let it iron out and have faith that the right decision’s going to be made.”

Ok, so on the surface at least, it seems like the Eagles and Kolb haven’t had any serious discussion yet. But this was still a strange interview. “As far as I know”? “I don’t even talk to my agent”? Those are just some weird statements from Kolb.

I’m not going any further than that. No point in stoking the flame more.

Second, here’s a flattering report on Kevin Kolb from Scouts Inc.’s Matt Williamson:

“He’s been very impressive in limited snaps, going back to preseason. Although last year he got thrown into action when [Donovan] McNabb got benched against the Baltimore Ravens, and he looked horrible. But that was the worst-case scenario for the poor guy, too, to go into the second half against one of the best defenses in the league with no preparation. So you tend to wash that away. But since then Kolb has really stepped it up, and I am high on him. I think he can make every throw. He’s a quick decision-maker, and he’s a good enough athlete. Kolb has everything you want physically, and the ball comes out of his hand really nice. He has an awful lot of upside, almost like a Matt Schaub when he was in Atlanta or Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay [waiting] behind Brett Favre. Kolb just needs to get a crack at it. I kind of feel like he’s the next guy to be breaking out, either with his present team or with a new team. Considering what some of the teams are starting in this league, I would start Kolb today, still being more of an unknown, over 10 or 12 starting quarterbacks for sure.”

A glowing report to be sure. It’s especially nice to hear Kolb “can make every throw,” since one of the big dropoffs to him from McNabb is arm strength. And maybe more important: “quick decision-maker.”

Williamson said he’d start Kolb over one third of QBs starting right now. That’s a big vote of confidence based on the few games he’s played. You have to think Andy Reid and the rest of the Eagles front office is even more positive on Kolb, with thousands of hours of practice on top of that.

It’ll be interesting to see how Reid characterizes Kolb if/when he finally takes over for McNabb, and how he knew Kolb was ready. Until then, I’ll take any (qualified) take that I can get.