Vick to the Jags? Could Sell Some Tickets

Jacksonville Jaguars Head Coach Jack Del Rio stuck his foot in his mouth big time yesterday when asked if his current QB is Super Bowl-caliber:

Well that’s a, uh, good question. I think I would say a quarterback like David Garrard can be that with a great supporting cast.  You know, I don’t know.  When you look at teams that have won multiple championships, I think they’ve had elite quarterbacks. Peyton Manning type guys, Joe Montana type guys.  The elite quarterback?  He’s not that.

Obviously Del Rio’s telling the brutal truth about Garrard — he’s not great. But you would think he’d be more diplomatic.

This is really just a convenient way to transition to rumors. Jacksonville, with its woeful attendance rate, is in the market for some kind of game changer — such as messiah Tim Tebow. But Donovan McNabb or Michael Vick could work just as well.

Donovan might be the better fit for a team that’s not terrible, but Vick just makes too much sense here. He’s quite simply the cheapest excitement you can buy in the NFL this offseason. Bring him to Jacksonville and media attention will be everywhere, enthusiasm will be everywhere.

I’ll break down further why Jacksonville is a likely destination for Vick in a new post soon detailing the team scenario which would cause a team to look at him.

Running is the Answer. Maybe.

So according to Bob Brookover’s many friends, the answer for 2010 is not to ditch McNabb, but to run the football. Brian Dawkins chimes in from Denver:

“Run the ball. With that passing attack, the way that thing is shaping up to be, go ahead and bring Donovan [McNabb] back to where he’s supposed to be, and run that pill and let those weapons outside go to work.”

Rich Gannon, for some reason, agrees:

“I think they have a tendency to get away from running the football a little bit,” Gannon said. “Obviously, the injury to Brian Westbrook  didn’t help, but I think in order to be good in that division, you have to be able to run the football.”

Brookover’s found a bunch of different criticisms of the Eagles in the article, so go check it out. But this one is the most interesting — because telling Andy Reid to run more is like asking Rex Ryan to stop eating or Bill Belicheck to wear non-ripped clothes.

The truth is that if Andy and Marty Mornhinweg decided to run the ball more, the team would be better for it. While the offense was big this past year, it was all predicated on the big play. However, this has been a constant refrain for years without really any change.

But at some point you have to realize that Andy won’t ever change — at least as long as he has McNabb’s arm to count on. This has been a refrain Tommy Lawlor has reiterated often. Saying Andy should keep McNabb but change the way he operates the offense is silly, because it won’t ever happen. Keeping McNabb naturally entails doing the same thing next year as they did last year.

And honestly, look at the box scores for the two games Kolb started: NO and KC. Andy’s not going to change his ways even when Kolb’s in the game. The throws might be different, but there’s still going to be a lot of them.

Accept that as a constant in this whole debate and move on.

Vick Going Nowhere? The Dance Continues

From PFT:

NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi reported Tuesday night that the Eagles, suddenly, plan to keep quarterback Michael Vick.

Lombardi says the Eagles feel as if they’re “in a luxury position” with regard to their current quarterback group.  They have Vick, probable future starter Kevin Kolb, and five-time Pro Bowler Donovan McNabb signed through 2010.

Yeah, I’m not buying this any more than Florio’s crew. This is the front office’s direct response to Vick’s trade demand Monday. I think everyone (NFL GMs) knows the Eagles will drop Vick if they can’t get even a conditional pick for him. Maybe by pretending they can keep all their QBs Andy & Co. can up the price a little bit though — or even trick a team into thinking they have no shot at picking him up as a free agent if a deal fell through.

The interesting thing is that Vick would much rather be dropped and get to choose his landing spot. It’s in his best interest to lower his trade value, as long as he’s sure the Eagles won’t keep him around — hence his talk of not being so happy in a backup role.

We’ll be following this tricky dance closely.

Update: Here’s the original report on nfl.com.

In Other News: Vick Wants Out

So apparently Michael Vick wants to be a starter next year. Who knew? When asked if he could accept coming back to the Eagles as a backup, he said:

“It would be a tough decision to make. I would really have to take a lot of things into consideration, the fact that I want to be a starter and the fact that I’m blessed just to be back playing football. If I had to [be a backup], I would. If another opportunity presented itself, then it would be even better.”

This goal has been obvious since last offseason. Interesting strategy to announce it publicly now though. This is pretty much a call to be traded or released. Doesn’t sound like Mike would be too happy sticking around.

Of course, when asked where he thinks he stands against other QBs in the league, said:

“I still feel like I’m among the top 10, to be honest. I’m confident in my skills.”

Was he ever among the top 10, even before going to jail?

Stick around and later on I’ll have a post on Vick’s possible scenarios for trades.

Where McNabb Will Go: The Breakdown

The speculation about where various Eagles QBs could end up never ends. Of course, that’s what we’re doing here. But ultimately some of the rumors make a lot more sense than others. There are certain scenarios where a player like Donovan McNabb is a great fit. There are places where Michael Vick fits. Mostly, however, those two groups of teams are completely separate. A team calling about McNabb isn’t looking for Vick, and vice versa — because they offer completely different things.

I will do another post on the situation for Vick in the next couple days, but there’s been some buzzing on the McNabb front, so we’ll start there — with what kind of team will be inquiring about Donovan, and then what specific teams fit that mold.

A team interested in #5 has to have these characteristics:

1. A Contender: No rebuilding team will want a 33-year-old quarterback with one year left on his contract. They’d much rather draft a prospect and rebuild in the next 2-3 years. Acquiring Donovan is a move made for next year — sacrificing a relatively high draft pick for immediate performance.
2. Have a Definite QB Need: If there’s still a large chance that the quarterback position will be fine, the team might inquire, but won’t really pursue McNabb.
3. QB Must be the Last Piece of the Puzzle: A GM would have to be convinced that all the team is lacking for a playoff/Super Bowl run is a good QB calling the shots. No reason to go after McNabb if the rest of the team isn’t there. Think Vikings’ pursuit of Favre. Everything else was in place, and waiting for Tavaris to mature took too long.
4. West Coast Offense: Unclear how much this is a factor. Adam Caplan and others have argued extensively that McNabb’s familiarity with the WCO limits his desirability, because he’ll have difficulty transitioning to any other system. I personally find it hard to believe, but certainly for any team that runs a WCO, this is a huge plus if they can get a guy like McNabb.
5. Willing to Offer Extension: McNabb is looking for job security. He won’t be happy to play for a one year rental somewhere. And the team that trades a high pick for McNabb probably won’t want to risk losing him after a year either.
6. Not a Definite Eagles Competitor: Andy Reid is quite simply going to ask a lot more from teams who the Eagles have to compete with. The game is all about relative gains, and trading McNabb a rival won’t help the Eagles’ chances. For example, McNabb’s not going to Washington. And while he could go to another NFC team, it would be much more expensive.

Okay, so let’s look at the teams McNabb’s been linked to, and how they fit this mold:

• Minnesota Vikings: Certainly the Vikings are major contenders for McNabb after their performance this year with Brett Favre. If Favre were to retire Brad Childress would have to give his buddy Andy a call. The biggest question is though, when will Childress know that? If he’s content to sit back and wait for Favre’s answer, it probably won’t come until at least the start of training camp. That’s not going to be conducive to a trade. Plus, I’m sure Andy would rather not trade him to a big NFC competitor. This would have to be at least a #1 pick, and Childress would have to decide he doesn’t want to wait for Favre.
• Arizona Cardinals: Similar situation to Minnesota, except they know that Warner is gone. That begs the question, is Lienart ready? Other than the West Coast Offense thing, McNabb looks like he’d fit right into the lineup with Fitz and Boldin. Again, there is the NFC contender issue to be sorted out.
• San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers fit this mold very well. You’re talking about a team with good skill players, good defense, but hasn’t had a quarterback in about 7 or 8 years. Their pursuit of Kurt Warner last year shows you how close they think they are to contending. And with their flop with Alex Smith still haunting them, I doubt they want to try another spin of the prospect  wheel. I think Andy would also find this more palatable than sending him to an already Super Bowl-contending team. They might even take something less than a #1 from San Fran.
• Oakland Raiders: All of this must be premised with the fact that Al Davis is a nut and could do anything. But I think Vick is much more likely here. McNabb could not overnight turn Oakland into a contender. There are still too many holes in that team. And there’s not a chance in hell Donovan will stick around to try to rebuild the black and silver. Also not sure Andy will feel comfortable shipping his QB off to someplace so crappy. That doesn’t seem like something you’d wish on a guy you mentored and owe so much to.
• St. Louis Rams: This team is not a contender. They need all the draft picks they can get.
• Cleveland Browns: See above.
• Chicago Bears: Stop people. They are wedded to Jay Cutler.
• Carolina Panthers: Not sure this is such a clear-cut rebuilding project as Rams or Browns. While starting over might be a good idea, John Fox won’t be the one doing it. To save his job and postpone that process he’s going to need a better season — not wait for some rookie to mature. McNabb could provide that (better than Matt Moore), chucking it to Steve Smith aka DeSean Jackson Sr.
• Buffalo Bills: Similar to Panthers. Might be better to blow stuff up. Not sure they will.
• [Updated] Denver Broncos: Not sure why I left the Broncos off this list. Josh McDaniels has already traded for one veteran QB, why not try again? If he could get a rookie, I think he’d prefer that though.

What all of this adds up to is that if I had to put money on McNabb’s final destination, it would be the 49ers. Their willingness to already pursue a similar solution in Warner makes sense. Meanwhile, Minnesota will wait for Favre and Arizona will give Lienart a chance. That’s just my analysis based on these criteria — and of course he might not get traded at all.  Feel free to sound off about what you agree or disagree about.

"Tell Me About Your Childhood"

Best interview of Donovan McNabb ever. If only 11-year-old reporter Damon Weaver had asked about the Eagles Offseason QB Clusterf%$k™.

McNabb: Promises to the Jester?

“I have a psychic and she told me; she said, ‘Good things are to happen in Philadelphia and it’s going to be really good for you,’ ” McNabb said while doing his best Jamaican psychic impersonation. ” ‘Just relax. You’ll get what you need.’ ” (Source)

Who knows if Kolb can provide these quotes? Score one for Team McNabb!

The more relevant, if less hilarious, part of that story:

“I don’t want to be anywhere else but Philly, and Andy came out to say it and the guys want me back and that’s the most important thing.”

I’ll take a longer look at Andy’s promises in the near future, but how can McNabb be confident of such a commitment in private, when all Reid can muster in public is this tepid statement of support?

In Andy We Trust? Reid's QB History

Coach and Quarterback success is so often intertwined. How often have we seen a coach essentially luck into a great QB and succeed, then without that player they fail. Big examples would be Bill Belicheck (in Cleveland) without Tom Brady, Mike Shanahan after John Elway. In truth most coaches never find that elusive great QB at all.

Very rare is the coach who can find and tutor multiple QBs, who can win long after the first hall-of-famer is gone. Identifying QBs with the intelligence and skills to succeed is the first hurdle; drafting them is a glorified crapshoot. For every Peyton Manning there’s a Ryan Leaf. For every Donovan McNabb there’s a Tim Couch. Bill Walsh stands out for this quality at the top of my head – he found Joe Montana and Steve Young.

But even after drafting or acquiring these players, you have to be able to mentor them to be NFL quarterbacks. This requires, in some ways, a completely separate skill set. The ability to teach a quarterback and build a team around him is incredibly difficult. Norv Turner has often been credited as a fabulous developer of QBs, having helped Troy Aikman and now Philip Rivers reach stardom. However, there were plenty of other talented players he couldn’t help, such as 49ers 1st overall pick Alex Smith and Redskins 3rd overall pick Heath Shuler.

That combination of talent-finding and talent-nurturing is rare. The question naturally becomes: does Andy Reid have both? The answer to that question shapes your entire view of McNabb or Kolb — because if Andy chooses to switch to Kolb, fans have to decide whether to trust that choice or not. Is Reid just another Shanahan, destined to search blindly for a successor to McNabb and never enjoying the same success? Or is he a proven evaluator and teacher of quarterbacks who knows when to hand the keys to the next guy?

We can get a better handle on this by looking at the quarterbacks Andy has at least helped find or mentor over the years:

• Brett Favre — Andy can’t be cited here for finding Favre, he was a lowly offensive assistant in Green Bay when Ron Wolf acquired Favre. However, Andy was there throughout Favre’s young prime years as offensive line coach and then as quarterbacks coach in 97-98. To some degree Andy helped shape Favre during his greatest years.
• Ty Detmer — Acquired through the draft Andy’s first year as offensive assistant with the Packers. As with Favre, Andy probably worked around and with Ty for the first couple years. Detmer never panned out as a starter, but was an adequate back-up for a number of teams.
• Mark Brunell — Similar situation to Detmer, but was traded and became a Pro Bowl quarterback in Jacksonville.
• Matt Hasselbeck — Here’s where Andy starts being more actively involved as QB coach. Hasselbeck was drafted out of Boston College in the 6th round, with Andy as “the one who worked out Hasselbeck before the draft and pored over his film,” according to the Seattle Times. Reid’s input certainly mattered a great deal, and he helped shape at least the rookie year of Hasselbeck’s NFL transition.
• Koy Detmer — Ty’s brother was in Philly when Andy got there in 1999, but he stayed as the backup to McNabb until 2006. Also perhaps the greatest placekick holder in NFL history.
• Donovan McNabb — The crown jewel of Reid’s QB accomplishments, Andy scouted and trusted him enough to make McNabb his first pick in 1999. Reid then helped McNabb grow into a 6x Pro Bowler and borderline Hall-of-Famer. He has built winners around him for 10 years.
• A.J. Feeley — Andy found him in the 5th round of the 2001 draft. Never a fabulous player, but a great backup who won 4 of 5 starts in 2002, saving the Eagles’ playoff aspirations.
• Andy Hall — 6th round pick in 2004 out of Delaware. Bounced back and forth between practice squad and regular roster before release in 2006.
• Kevin Kolb — Jury’s still out.

Honestly, this list is one of the biggest arguments in favor of letting Andy switch to Kolb. Obviously Reid didn’t play the largest role with all of these players, but overall it seems like he got the most out of the ones he worked with. Aside from minor pick Hall, Reid hasn’t drafted anyone who hasn’t in some way “panned out” — relative to their pick. That alone is a fabulous sign that he can diagnose talent. And his work with other low-round picks like Hasselbeck and Feeley that turned them into real NFL players is impressive. Finally, there’s the fact that his one previous high pick on a QB was spot on.

Andy’s history suggests that he may one of a few coaches who can both find and mentor great QB talent. That’s not something we should overlook, although we often do. If that history is any guide, Kolb ought to be a fine QB.