'We Can Just Let Him Walk'

Jason Wilde, for ESPN Milwaukee:

“You look at it now, even though they’re saying that stuff, before the season and throughout the whole offseason, everybody had that attitude that they could just replace me, that I was just another player. ‘We can just let him walk,’” Jenkins said in a telephone interview Wednesday afternoon. “Certain players spoke out publicly about guys they hoped they’d bring back, but back then you didn’t hear anybody say too much about me. So I don’t pay it too much attention.”

The Packers’ loss was the Eagles’ gain. I’ll be surprised if the Eagles choose to cut Jenkins just so they don’t have to pay him the $5 million roster bonus in March.

Follow Up: What a Good Team Looks Like

On Monday, I demonstrated one flaw in the composition of the 2011 Eagles. There are too many starters who are new to the team, because they’re either recent draft picks or recent free agent pickups.

But just for comparison’s sake, here’s what a good team looks like. The 2011 Eagles starters overlaid with the (currently 12-0) 2011 Green Bay Packers starters, arranged by number of years with their respective teams:

(Click for bigger version.)

A Super Bowl Indicator: Net TD Efficiency

In the last post we ranked NFL offenses according to their touchdown efficiency per plays, yards, and drives. Eliminating field goals and calculating rankings based on efficiency rather than raw scores helped isolate the best and worst offenses.

So for the next step, we’ll add defense. I added up touchdowns allowed by each defense and figured out the same efficiency stats as yesterday. Then, simple enough, I subtracted defense from offense. Positive scores indicate better teams. For example, the New England Patriots make their opponents go 13 extra plays, 64 extra yards, and 2 extra drives to get a touchdown. They are ranked third overall.

First and second, by a solid margin, go to the two Super Bowl teams. They were 1-2 in every category, and outpaced the third place teams significantly in Net Plays per TD and Net Drives per TD. Predictive stats are often too reductive, but if you used this measurement to pick the Super Bowl teams at the end of the regular season — it would have guided you well.

The Eagles, despite their highly ranked offense, come out only 13th in the net rankings. If you didn’t figure it out already, Sean McDermott’s defense was a huge liability in 2010. Also note that while we’ve eliminated some biases, the stat doesn’t account for strength of schedule. Not sure how much that would change things, but keep it in mind nonetheless.

See the full rankings below.

Photo from Getty.

Will the Real Eagles Please Stand Up?

Can anyone say with any certainty that they know how the Eagles will play on Sunday against the Packers? I’m not talking about the outcome of the game, but rather how the team will perform, relative to their talent and their recent games.

We know the 2010-11 Eagles can be a dominant bunch. They didn’t win six of seven games during the stretch run from Halloween to Christmas for nothing. Football Outsiders ranks the Eagles number five overall in the league, with the third best offense — one that is capable of scoring 28 points in just under eight minutes against the Giants a few weeks back.

But this team can also look woeful. The first three quarters were ugly in that Miracle in the New Meadowlands game as the Giants mounted a three touchdown lead. And the Joe Webb-led Vikings took down the Birds in a sloppy team effort with a first round bye on the line. You don’t see football played much worse than that…

Why Kevin Kolb Isn't to Blame

The general consensus coming out of Sunday’s loss to the Green Bay Packers is that Kevin Kolb played terribly. Jeff McLane titled a story, “Yes, Kolb was that bad.” Phil Sheridan wrote that Kolb “didn’t look much like ‘The Guy.’” Tommy Lawlor called the first game “a nightmare start.” All over Philadelphia, reactionary fans are screaming for Michael Vick to take over.

The problem with this simple-minded analysis is that while everyone can agree that Kolb was less than stellar, no one puts forward any explanation beyond, “Kolb must be terrible.” Even though there is an explanation, a very simple one.

The explanation starts way back on September 30, 2007…

Knocked Out: Breaking Down the Eagles Defense

*The defense went with a big 3-4 look, with three down lineman and two stand-up rushers. Akeem Jordan dropped into coverage, and Ernie Sims and Nate Allen blitzed. Impossible to figure out which LBs were going to blitz, especially with Allen tacked on to that. Rodgers threw the ball into triple coverage for the pick. Here’s hoping we see that look again.

*Stewart Bradley has the speed to peel off and run with JerMichael Finley. That’s what makes hims so versatile. But he just can’t run into Finley when the ball’s in the air.

*Juqua Parker’s not dead yet, huh? Putting big pressure on opposite Trent Cole on multiple occasions. Three sacks in the first 16 minutes of the game…

Tough Loss: Breaking Down the Eagles Offense

*The Brent Celek motion-out-of-the-backfield play is going to be a big theme this season, isn’t it? But even before Celek’s supposed offensive pass interference, Kolb had two rushers in his face. How do you let two out of four rushers get to your quarterback?

*Then Kolb finally got some time to throw and forced one to Jackson that almost got picked off. Kolb wasn’t fabulous in this game, but (a) he only played a quarter and a half — during which time Aaron Rodgers wasn’t exactly lighting it up either, and (b) how do you expect a lot out of Kolb when he’s sacked on every third or fourth pass attempt?

*The Michael Vick quarterback draw play to pick up some field position yardage is something we didn’t see earlier. Although, if you keep running him up the gut, the Packers might see it coming later…

Packers at Eagles: The Big Question

It seems to me that, at the end of the day, Rodgers and the Packers are going to score points. Hopefully the revamped Eagles defense will have enough to keep the scoring from getting out of hand, but the biggest question mark going into the game is really:

Can Kevin Kolb and the offense keep up with the Packers’ high scoring attack?

Most fans seem upbeat about Kolb as we go into the season, despite his anemic preseason numbers. However, he’s going to have to light it up this Sunday — throwing his first touchdown of the year and more — if the Eagles want to win…