Has Michael Vick Already Peaked?

Last week, Ron Jaworski went on SportsCenter and talked about Michael Vick’s potential in 2012:

“Vick has shown he is capable of throwing the ball exceptionally well from the pocket,” said Jaworski. “His overall throwing skill set can be top five in the league. His objective in 2012 must be to play that way more often. It becomes an availability issue. You can’t be an elite NFL quarterback if you can’t be counted on every single week.

“I am really excited to see Michael Vick in 2012. A more disciplined player will result in fewer turnovers. I would not be surprised if we’re getting ready to see the best year of Vick’s ten-year career.”

While Jaws supposedly watched every 2011 snap of Vick, his conclusions seem half-baked, especially compared to Sheil Kapadia’s epic breakdown of Vick’s game for the Eagles Almanac (plug alert!). For example, Sheil noted all of Vick’s injuries came on hits in the pocket, not because he was running around. Availability seems to be less of an issue (an NFL team loses its starting QB, on average, for three games a season) than accuracy and decision-making.

Regardless, Jaws’ sentiments are those I think a lot of fans hold. Vick had an amazing season in 2010, then fell back to Earth in 2011. But, we are told, his first full offseason as the starter with Marty Mornhinweg and Andy Reid will push him back to the top. It’s not a crazy opinion, but it is an optimistic outlook, and one that I’m not sure there’s any more evidence for than that Vick has already peaked, and he’ll never again reach that height.

In the spirit of a series of posts I did about Donovan McNabb two years ago (yeesh, that long ago?), I put together a new graph showing where Vick ranked on key statistics, during the years he was the main starter. By focusing on the rankings, rather than the stats themselves, we can see how well Vick has done compared to his peers — since the last ten years has resulted in a better passing environment pretty much across the board. QB Rating is slightly bolded because it’s more of an aggregate indicator than a separate statistic.

Obviously, Vick’s passing career has been less than stellar overall. Through 2006, he was below average across the board, and especially terrible in completion percentage. He went on his two year hiatus, came back as a wildcat threat in 2009, and resurrected triumphantly in 2010.

The question of “what’s next?” remains, though. There was a big drop off from 2010 to 2011, approximately from Aaron Rodgers-level to Jay Cutler-level. Was that a temporary bump in the road, soon to be righted after an offseason of hard work? That’s certainly the conventional wisdom right now.

The other answer, while not necessarily disastrous, is significantly less Super Bowl-worthy. That possibility suggests that Vick simply regressed to his career mean. His numbers were still up from 2006, but one might attribute that to slightly improved play and a much better supporting cast. Vick never had DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek, and LeSean McCoy in Atlanta.

Ultimately, there’s no such thing as a prediction engine for player performance. Vick may really benefit from these months of personal tutoring, allowing him to overcome the blitz-happy adjustments many teams made against him last year. Or, at 32 years old, it may be too late for him to completely change his ways. Jaws’ statement about Vick’s talent and potential are the same things people have been saying about him for the last decade.

One’s personal expectation probably has a lot to do with your thoughts on Mornhinweg and Reid’s mentor skills. In my experience, you doubt their abilities to coach and gameplan at your own risk. But I also wonder how much this ballyhooed “first full offseason as a starter” will really make a difference. Vick has been playing at a more mediocre rate since the end of the 2010 season, and we’re supposed to believe the three of them haven’t had time until this offseason to go over that?

For now, among the cautiously optimistic analysts, consider me more cautious than than optimistic.

Photo from Getty.

DeSean Jackson and the Red Zone Offense

Tommy Lawlor:

I’d love to see DeSean Jackson make a RZ impact, but I’m doubtful. He’s just not at his best moving in traffic and confined spaces. He can be a good decoy.

I know DeSean is at his best running past defenders 30 yards downfield, but the Eagles inability to get him open in the red zone continues to shock me. This is not a player with just straight-line speed; we’ve all seen him make insane moves in small spaces on punt returns. How can Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg not find creative ways to get him open down by the goal line?

Furthermore, if the Eagles red zone offense really hinges on the performance of backup tight ends, fourth wide receivers, and practice squad-caliber fullbacks, that is a coaching failure to the highest degree.

Stevie Johnson's Contract Could Guide DeSean

News broke this morning that would-be free agent wide receiver Stevie Johnson signed a new contract with the Buffalo Bills. Johnson is an interesting test case for a possible new contract for DeSean Jackson because the two players are of similar age and ability.

ESPN reported the figures of the deal:

The Bills didn’t disclose terms of the agreement, but a league source told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter that Johnson received a five-year, $36.25 million deal that includes $19.5 million guaranteed and over $24 million in the contract’s first three years.

That sounds like it would be a great deal for the Eagles. At the very least, it’s a step down from last offseason’s market-setting deal that Santonio Holmes received from the Jets. The Holmes contract was also for five years, but reached $45 million with $24 million guaranteed.

So how close are Jackson and Johnson? Let’s briefly compare them.

Both players are 25 years old. They both have four years of NFL experience and reach free agency as the top receiving threat on their respective teams. DeSean is more of a speedster, at only 5’10”, 170 lbs, while Stevie is a more prototypical 6’2”, 210 lbs. Their numbers over the last two seasons are similar, although they have different strengths:

We already know all about Jackson’s big play ability, and Johnson can’t measure up in yards per reception. But Johnson matched in total yardage because he catches significantly more passes per game. He’s also a bigger threat in the redzone, with seven more touchdowns.

DeSean does have a better full resume than Johnson, since the Bills wideout didn’t become a starter until 2010. Thus, despite his deficiency in some categories, I would expect Jackson could beat this contract, if only by a little bit. Still, it’s a great marker by which both the Eagles and Drew Rosenhaus will have to adjust. Hopefully this deal will help bring the two sides closer together.

Photo from Getty.

Plax Wants Philly, Philly Should Want Plax

I find it hard to mount any case why the Eagles shouldn’t sign Plaxico Burress. Sure, he’ll be 35 by the time the season starts, and he’s certainly not a role model. But at this point I wouldn’t mind seeing Andy Reid sell a bit of his soul for better red zone production.

2011 was the first year since 2006 that the Eagles have even nudged above average in red zone touchdown percentage. And they haven’t been in the top ten since 2004. That’s a historic stretch of poor red zone play, and it spans three quarterbacks, two running backs, and two generations of wide receivers.

It’s clear that outside of LeSean McCoy, whatever’s going on down by the goalline isn’t working. The speed-beats-all mentality that has made the offense so explosive in the first 80 yards of the field isn’t getting it done where it counts. It’s obvious even by the play calling. Reid and Marty Mornhinweg have long since abandoned the normal offense in the red zone. They’ve resorted to tricking their way into a touchdown with shovels and screens.

The data proves this out. DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, despite game-breaking speed in the middle of the field, are both below average in scoring touchdowns per target and reception. Even at age 35, Burress is the opposite. He’s a touchdown machine.

With the Jets last year, Burress scored a touchdown on nearly 18 percent of all his receptions. That’s more than Calvin Johnson, and good enough for third in the NFL among receivers with at least 50 percent of their team’s offensive snaps. Eagles fans will remember Burress constantly beating one-on-one coverage in the end zone for Eli Manning, and he could do the same for Michael Vick.

Where all of the Eagles wide receivers become distractions at best and liabilities at worst down in the red zone, replacing one of them with Burress doesn’t just provide a different set of physical strengths (if so, Hank Baskett and Riley Cooper would have filled this role). Plaxico brings the experience of 63 career touchdowns — more than all of the Eagles current receivers combined.

Burress wants to be an Eagle. He did last year too, but the front office picked Steve Smith instead. Time to correct that mistake.

Photo from Getty.

Where Did the High-Flying Pass Attack Go?

I’m not sure what happened to the Eagles vaunted quick-strike passing attack of 2010. And after combing through some of the stats from last year, I still don’t have a good read on it.

Let’s just take a minute to compare Michael Vick’s passes of 20 yards or more over the last two years, courtesy of Pro Football Focus:

The numbers show a complicated picture. By some measures, Vick’s deep passes were as good as they were a year prior. Yards per target and per reception were almost identical. The interception rate was similar, and completion percentage actually bumped up to 50 percent.

On the other hand, Vick’s touchdown rate dropped precipitously from 12.3 percent of all deep passes to just 6.3 percent. There were also seemingly fewer opportunities downfield — Vick’s percentage of throws 20 yards or greater fell by more than a third.

What about for DeSean Jackson, Vick’s frequent target on deep passes?

DeSean received a higher percentage of deep targets (54.2 percent vs. 44.6 percent in 2010), but his reception rate went in the opposite direction. A few drops here, a few bad passes there caused his yards per target figure to drop as well.

The odd thing about Jackson’s numbers is the interceptions column. Notice anything? Yes, all four of Vick’s interceptions throwing deep were targeted at Jackson. I’m not sure what to make of that. Was Jackson not putting in the effort to go get the ball? Was Vick forcing the ball to his top target? Whatever the problem, is it fixable?

It may be time to go back to the tape.

Photo from Getty.

Michael Vick: Under Pressure

I don’t think anyone (with the possible exception of Andy Reid) was shocked when Juan Castillo didn’t work out on defense. But nearly everyone was surprised at just how far Michael Vick regressed from his star season in 2010.

The big problem Vick had was simply turnovers. After posting zero interceptions through his first eight games the previous season, Vick was picked off 14 times in 13 games in 2011. That’s not nearly good enough if the Eagles want to rebound and make a run into the playoffs next year.

So let’s go a little deeper to try to understand some of Vick’s interception woes, using some stats from Pro Football Focus. Today I want to split Vick’s plays into two categories: regular and under pressure.

Let’s look at his non-pressured stats first. When not threatened by sacks or hits, Vick completed 69 percent of his passes, good enough for 8th-best among the 24 quarterbacks who took at least 50 percent of their team’s offensive snaps. That completion rate jumps to 76 percent and 6th-best when you don’t count drops against him.

As to interceptions, Vick was slightly below average, but not by much. He was 15th out of 24, with an interception rate of 2.5 percent. For reference, Eli Manning was 14th with 2.4 percent, and Drew Brees was 11th with 2.1 percent.

Overall, Vick showed room for improvement, but no big problems when he wasn’t pressured. When he had defenders in his face, however, Vick’s performance was more of a mixed bag.

On one hand, he had the 5th-highest touchdown rate and the 2nd-lowest sack rate among those 24 quarterbacks. With only 11.6 percent of all pressured dropbacks turned into sacks, Vick’s famed elusiveness served him well avoiding a big loss.

However, Vick completed only 42 percent his passes under pressure, which ranks 18th. Worse, 4.9 percent of his passes were intercepted, beating only Matt Hasselbeck, Tarvaris Jackson, Rex Grossman, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. (Matt Ryan scored about average, at 3.5 percent, while Andy Dalton, Aaron Rodgers, and Sam Bradford were blemish-free.)

There are two takeaways from this information. One is relatively straightforward: Vick needs to handle the pressure better, even take a few more sacks rather than expose himself to interceptions. The rookie Dalton, who threw zero interceptions under pressure, also threw the ball away in those situations more than anyone else in the league. Vick could learn something from that example.

But the second takeaway is more nuanced. For the last two seasons, Vick has been under pressure more than nearly any other quarterback. Last year he ranked first overall with pressure in 39.8 percent of his dropbacks. In 2010 he was second, with 41.8 percent.

Given the improvement along the offensive line year-over-year, it’s likely that this has more to do with Vick than his blockers. Football Outsiders sack timing stats show that more than half of his sacks take longer than three seconds, which partially can be attributed to avoiding defenders, but also results from his tendency to hold on to the ball too long.

Vick is a playmaker when he scrambles around — his touchdown rate is actually higher with pressure than without. But avoiding sacks and trying to score big also led him to turn the ball over far too much.

Perhaps Reid and Marty Mornhinweg should focus on teaching Vick to avoid more of those situations by making pre-snap reads and quick decisions about where to go with the football. If DeSean Jackson returns, there will still be plenty of opportunities to create big plays, even without dancing around in backfield. If he doesn’t become more consistent and less turnover-prone, Vick will continue to be a liablity going forward.

Photo from Getty.

Yes, Michael Vick can be ELIte

Les Bowen:

That last part was the most important; it was what separated the Giants from, say, the 49ers. Eli was sacked 11 times in the playoffs - more than any other quarterback. He still completed 65 percent of his passes, threw for nine touchdowns and was intercepted exactly once. His QB rating was 103.3. He averaged 304.8 passing yards per game.

Good luck copying that “blueprint,” NFL GMs. And Eagles fans, do you really see Michael Vick throwing for nine touchdowns and one interception?

To be fair, Vick had 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions through his first eight games last season. So yes, I have seen it happen. Not only that, but just a year ago Eli Manning threw for a league-leading 25 interceptions.

Vick has an important offseason ahead of him, but there’s no reason to think he can’t rebound from 2011.

Maclin vs. Jackson: Who's More Valuable?

After the high-flying success of the 2010 Eagles passing attack, this past season represented a large drop off in passing production. Michael Vick regressed from his MVP-caliber season, and his young wide receivers did as well.

Even with fewer sacks, Vick’s net yards per attempt (which includes sacks) went down in 2011, as did his touchdown percentage. Meanwhile, his interception rate doubled. DeSean Jackson caught more passes, but had fewer yards and touchdowns. Jeremy Maclin suffered a similar decline across his numbers.

However, it was an especially trying season for Jackson, who played with the weight of failed contract negotiations on his shoulders. Unfortunately, instead of keeping business and football separate, Jackson admitted after the final game that he let the contract issues distract him.

So, as we enter the offseason, the question remains as to what to do about Jackson and his pending free agent status. Do you let him test the market, or do you franchise tag him? Do you try to work out an extension, or let him walk/trade him?

These outcomes are all on the table. The correct answer lies as much in how you view Jackson as a player, and how he fits into the Eagles offense. Is he a legitimate number one receiver, or do his personal foibles and inconsistent hands make him expendable?

Relatedly, if Maclin is the real number one wideout, maybe you build the offense around him instead. After all, he has more receptions and touchdowns than Jackson the last two seasons, and (for what it’s worth) wide receiver DVOA stats tend to rank Maclin above Jackson.

I thought a good place to start with all of this was with the final piece: an analysis of Maclin and Jackson against each other and, notably, without each other.

Here are the stats for the two receivers in games they both played, over the last three seasons (from Pro Football Focus):

Looking at this data, you can see that pass distribution has been almost equal; Maclin has a slight edge in targets. However, Maclin’s catch rate is much higher, resulting in more than an extra reception per game. Jackson catches more of the longer passes, however, so the yardage works out almost equal.

Both have been good receivers, but in different ways. Jackson is more explosive, Maclin is more reliable. Two reasonable people might disagree over which is more useful, and I’m not sure it’s worth debating at this time.

But those stats are only when the two play in the same game. If we want to know who is more valuable or, more to the point, what the prospects are without Jackson, we need to look at games they played without their counterpart (highlighted green for improved performance and red for decline against the baseline):

Let me just start by stating plainly the small sample size here. In the last three years Jackson has played only 6 games without Maclin, and Maclin only 3 without Jackson. That said, the numbers might still provide insight.

In both cases their pass targets went up by one — but that’s really the only similarity. In almost every other statistic, Jackson’s numbers actually improved without Maclin in the lineup. He had a higher catch rate and higher yards after the catch. Slightly fewer touchdowns, but that’s so hard to project over a limited number of games.

Meanwhile, things haven’t gone well in Maclin’s few tries without Jackson. While his targets went up, his catch rate dropped dramatically to less than 50 percent. He had fewer yards per catch, fewer yards after the catch, and no touchdowns. All in all, surprisingly poor results.

Once again, small sample size, but this is the only evidence we’re going to have before the Eagles make a long-term decision on their mercurial young star. And the evidence certainly suggests that Jackson’s not only a fine receiver himself, but his deep threat makes his running mate look better as well.

Take away Maclin, and Jackson benefits from the increased attention. Take away Jackson, and Maclin suffers despite it.

Some fans might be willing to move on without Jackson, should that come to pass. But this data reads like a warning. In a full season without DeSean, Maclin might look a lot more like Reggie Brown than Mike Quick.

Photo from Getty.