Great numbers by Jimmy Kempski over at Blogging the bEast. Turns out, the Eagles have drafted more total offensive and defensive lineman in the last five years than any other team. Alright, so they’re not actually first by percent of total picks, but still, Andy Reid values numbers in the trenches.
Note that the Eagles have taken 18 linemen in the last five drafts. That’s the same as the Redskins and Cowboys combined.
Adam Schefter, when asked if Bill Cowher might be a candidate to replace Reid in the undetermined future:
My belief is that Reid will stay on in that job as long as he wants. Jeffrey Lurie will not fire him. When the time comes for Reid to go, whenever that is, it will be because he opts to go.
People seem to be getting worked up about this because they’re taking Schefter’s words too literally. He’s obviously wrong that Lurie won’t fire him. In fact, the owner has backed himself into a corner this year where if the team doesn’t improve from “unacceptable,” he’ll have little choice but to fire Reid. What Schefter’s words reiterate is simply that Lurie doesn’t want to fire Reid. Give him a playoff win and he’ll be happy keeping the status quo.
In other news, Reid (or someone else at NovaCare) apparently convinced Jason Babin that running with the bulls isn’t such a bright idea.
Last week, Ron Jaworski went on SportsCenter and talked about Michael Vick’s potential in 2012:
“Vick has shown he is capable of throwing the ball exceptionally well from the pocket,” said Jaworski. “His overall throwing skill set can be top five in the league. His objective in 2012 must be to play that way more often. It becomes an availability issue. You can’t be an elite NFL quarterback if you can’t be counted on every single week.
“I am really excited to see Michael Vick in 2012. A more disciplined player will result in fewer turnovers. I would not be surprised if we’re getting ready to see the best year of Vick’s ten-year career.”
While Jaws supposedly watched every 2011 snap of Vick, his conclusions seem half-baked, especially compared to Sheil Kapadia’s epic breakdown of Vick’s game for the Eagles Almanac (plug alert!). For example, Sheil noted all of Vick’s injuries came on hits in the pocket, not because he was running around. Availability seems to be less of an issue (an NFL team loses its starting QB, on average, for three games a season) than accuracy and decision-making.
Regardless, Jaws’ sentiments are those I think a lot of fans hold. Vick had an amazing season in 2010, then fell back to Earth in 2011. But, we are told, his first full offseason as the starter with Marty Mornhinweg and Andy Reid will push him back to the top. It’s not a crazy opinion, but it is an optimistic outlook, and one that I’m not sure there’s any more evidence for than that Vick has already peaked, and he’ll never again reach that height.
In the spirit of a series of posts I did about Donovan McNabb two years ago (yeesh, that long ago?), I put together a new graph showing where Vick ranked on key statistics, during the years he was the main starter. By focusing on the rankings, rather than the stats themselves, we can see how well Vick has done compared to his peers — since the last ten years has resulted in a better passing environment pretty much across the board. QB Rating is slightly bolded because it’s more of an aggregate indicator than a separate statistic.
Obviously, Vick’s passing career has been less than stellar overall. Through 2006, he was below average across the board, and especially terrible in completion percentage. He went on his two year hiatus, came back as a wildcat threat in 2009, and resurrected triumphantly in 2010.
The question of “what’s next?” remains, though. There was a big drop off from 2010 to 2011, approximately from Aaron Rodgers-level to Jay Cutler-level. Was that a temporary bump in the road, soon to be righted after an offseason of hard work? That’s certainly the conventional wisdom right now.
The other answer, while not necessarily disastrous, is significantly less Super Bowl-worthy. That possibility suggests that Vick simply regressed to his career mean. His numbers were still up from 2006, but one might attribute that to slightly improved play and a much better supporting cast. Vick never had DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek, and LeSean McCoy in Atlanta.
Ultimately, there’s no such thing as a prediction engine for player performance. Vick may really benefit from these months of personal tutoring, allowing him to overcome the blitz-happy adjustments many teams made against him last year. Or, at 32 years old, it may be too late for him to completely change his ways. Jaws’ statement about Vick’s talent and potential are the same things people have been saying about him for the last decade.
One’s personal expectation probably has a lot to do with your thoughts on Mornhinweg and Reid’s mentor skills. In my experience, you doubt their abilities to coach and gameplan at your own risk. But I also wonder how much this ballyhooed “first full offseason as a starter” will really make a difference. Vick has been playing at a more mediocre rate since the end of the 2010 season, and we’re supposed to believe the three of them haven’t had time until this offseason to go over that?
For now, among the cautiously optimistic analysts, consider me more cautious than than optimistic.
Photo from Getty.
Derek Sarley has shown new life this week with the release of the Eagles Almanac. He’s releasing a few tidbits of new stats analysis that he didn’t finish in time for the book. Deleted scenes, let’s call them.
Jimmy Kempski (Blogging the bEast), Derek Sarley (IgglesBlog), and myself will be on Reddit at noon eastern to answer any questions you might have about the Almanac, or anything else Eagles-related. You can leave questions in advance or enter the fray during the free-for-all at noon.
Join us!
Thank you everyone who has already bought the Eagles Almanac 2012! I’m really proud of the work we’ve done on this book, and I hope you all enjoy it.
This week, I’m going to share a series of smaller graphics and other posts based on the work in the Eagles Almanac. For those of you who bought it, hopefully this will provide an opportunity to discuss some of the findings (since that’s difficult on an ebook). And for those who haven’t, you’ll see what you’re missing.
Below is a simple chart from my article, which was a detailed examination of LeSean McCoy’s running style and the areas he can still improve. The question this chart poses, as the title suggests, is whether Shady is a better back than Westbrook, using Football Outsiders’ year-by-year rushing plus receiving DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement). Your answer probably varies from “so far” to “not yet.”
Today I’m proud to introduce Eagles Almanac 2012.
This is a project that that has been in the works secretly for months, a collaboration between 10 of your favorite writers, bloggers, and reporters to create the single best, most comprehensive guide to the 2012 Philadelpha Eagles season. The book, which you can download now as a PDF, is more than 80 ad-free pages of absolutely wall-to-wall Eagles content. There’s statistics, analysis, opinion, predictions, and even a dash of personal reflection thrown in for good measure.
The Eagles Almanac features long articles and in-depth essays on all the biggest offseason questions, and provides insight into a whole host of topics. And it does it all in a beautiful, magazine-quality layout:
I’ve personally taken on the task of editing and publishing the Eagles Almanac, but all together it was a collaborative effort between myself and a bunch of fabulous authors:
Mike Tanier (Football Outsiders and The New York Times), broke down the failings of Juan Castillo’s defensive play calling.
Tommy Lawlor (Iggles Blitz) penned a comprehensive draft review, as well as a personal recollection of the 1992 Eagles season.
Sheil Kapadia (Moving the Chains) analyzed what exactly happened to Michael Vick last year.
Jason Brewer (Bleeding Green Nation) looked at how 2012 is shaping up to be make-or-break season for Andy Reid, after 13 years on the job.
Jimmy Kempski (Blogging the bEast) put together the only NFC East preview you will ever need to read.
Tom McAllister (Bury Me In My Jersey) discussed the fragility of rabid Eagles fandom at age 30.
Derek Sarley (IgglesBlog) asked if Nnamdi Asomugha is on his last legs, and wondered what’s going on with Evan Mathis.
Sam Lynch (IgglesBlitz) looked ahead to the team’s problems and potential in 2013 and beyond.
Gabe Bevilacqua (IgglesBlog) gives advice for living in a (cruel) world where the Giants have won two of the last five Super Bowls.
And your truly examined LeSean McCoy’s breakout 2011 season and how he can actually improve from here.
Plus so much more! Given the hard work that’s gone into this book from all of us, I think it’s a steal at our price of $4.99, and I hope you think so too. At the end of the day, it’s a chance to get more top-notch Eagles content and support your favorite writers at the same time.
Buy the Eagles Almanac 2012 today!
(And while you’re at it, follow us on Twitter and like us on Facebook.)
I meant to write about this a couple weeks ago, but it got lost in the shuffle of next week’s big news (teaser). From Dave Spadaro:
“There should be no excuses at all,” said Jenkins… “With as many veterans as we have on this team, if there any grey areas, they have to be resolved. It can’t be something that carries over into the season. We have the pieces here.
“It was good to get back out here with the team. It’s good energy out there coming off the season last year. There’s a lot of determination this year. You can just see it in everybody, where it’s a different feel from last year. We weren’t out here this year because of the lockout, but you can just see the difference in everybody.
“I know the second I got here and I heard the phrase ‘Dream Team’ going around, that was just something like, ‘No, no, no.’ Hopefully, we don’t have anything like going around this year,” said Jenkins. “We can just work for it and know we have to work for it.”
I think last year’s team came into the season with the expectation that they were going to be good. Based on comments by Cullen Jenkins and others, this year’s team seems to know that they better be good, or else. That should be positive.
Furthermore, a veteran like Jenkins really couldn’t have a significant impact, leadership-wise, last season — both because of the lockout and the simple fact that he was new to the locker room. I expect that to change this year.