The Eagles Have a Fetish for What?

So columnist Gwen Knapp (no, I’ve never heard of her either) wrote a strongly-worded argument for keeping Donovan McNabb over at cbssports.com. Most of the article is fine, but there’s one line that I can’t get over:

The Eagles, however, have developed a near-fetish for shedding players as they head toward the periphery of their prime…

Um… what? Since when?

She can’t be talking about Brian Dawkins, who as good as he is, certainly was passed his “prime” when the Eagles let him walk last year. I just can’t, for the life of me, think of anyone who fit that description — especially not a whole bunch that would constitute a “near-fetish,” whatever that means.

Am I just totally forgetting a number of players? If I am, please, enlighten me in the comments.

A Kindred Spirit on Vick Analysis

Apparently I’m not alone in disagreeing with the silly report about Vick not getting traded until the summer. Matt Bowen over on National Football Post gives his take:

What value would the QB have then? Maybe a backup role in another city, but to expect a team to come in — with injury issues at their quarterback position — and make an offer for Vick in August just isn’t sitting well with me today…

I agree that NFL offseason programs can act more as babysitting services, outside of a weekend mini-camp and two weeks of OTA’s, but if you have your eye on Vick as a possible starter, he needs to be there. He needs to be in the playbook, in the meeting room and so on. All of the things we tend to talk and write about come May.

Exactly what I said. I don’t understand why people keep taking the report about the Eagles waiting until as late as the preseason to unload McNabb seriously. Vick’s value goes down after the draft, and rapidly declines once teams go into offseason workouts and training camps.

Very simply, the Eagles are not going to get a better offer than whatever they are talking about right now. Bowen sums it up nicely:

So, if the right offer were floated today, I don’t know how the Eagles could actually turn it down. And, that is why this report is so odd, so strange and so out of character for the NFL buzz.

Could an NFL Lockout Keep McNabb in Philly?

So there’s plenty of discussion about the impending collective bargaining between the NFL and the Players Union (maybe the most talked about story other than the Eagles Offseason QB Clusterf%$k™). Many, many league sources and reporters are suggesting that there’s a high likely of no football in 2011.

I have zero expertise on the complex labor issues at hand. All I know is what I read, and with every day that passes it seems more and more likely there could be a lockout after this season.

So what would that mean for the Eagles quarterback situation? Obviously it’s tough to say exactly, but let’s speculate. We’ll work from the premise that a lockout is likely for 2011, that we’ll miss one year of football — but no more. General thoughts:

• McNabb cannot be counted on to come back after a year off. Entering a season in which he would turn 36, without any football the previous year? That sounds like a bad combination.
• Kevin Kolb will be in the prime of his career. Could an off year stunt his development? Maybe. But he’s still probably a better option than McNabb in the 2012 return year.
• Jettisoning players after and/or during the lockout season could potentially be much easier — and easier to defend/justify. Presumably there would be a great deal of turnover, as some players retire, and a whole host of new, rookie bodies (from two drafts) flood in.

This is actually one of the more interesting reasons why the Eagles might choose to keep McNabb as the starter in 2010. Why take the huge risk of trading McNabb now when you can do so with less rancor, fewer questions, and minor drama in a year? Andy Reid could say he tried his best with McNabb and wish him good luck elsewhere, without stabbing him in the back. Avoiding all that trouble could be worth it to the Eagle front office.

Secondly, if 2011 is a wasted year, what is the point of starting Kolb this season? We’ve established that Kolb is probably going to be worse than McNabb this year (the degree of that difference is the question, of course), but starting him now theoretically sets the Eagles up to play well for the next 5+ years as Kolb hits his prime. However, if there’s no future, or a scarred future, for the league after 2010, why play for that goal?

What I’m saying is it comes down to payoffs (again, assuming we have a league lockout in 2011):

1. McNabb stays, and plays great this year. He leaves during transition — no hard feelings anywhere since McNabb is old and without contract. Kolb starts in 2012 at 28 years old.
2. McNabb stays, and plays mediocre this year. He leaves during transition — no hard feelings anywhere since McNabb is old and not very good any more. Kolb starts in 2012 at 28 years old.
3. McNabb stays, and gets hurt. Kolb steps in at 26 years old and takes over starting job permanently. McNabb leaves during transition — no hard feelings anywhere since he is old and hurt. Maybe he even retires.

If you knew there was going to be a lockout, keeping McNabb seems like a smart move without any massive deterrent. Trading McNabb now, on the other hand, causes all sorts of bad publicity, then sets you up with a potentially worse QB for the one make or break season — without actually helping the future all that much.

Obviously this is all speculation based on how likely a lockout is. If the Eagles are assuming there will be football (and the argument could be easily made that doing so is their responsibility), the best move is probably to get something for McNabb now and start the Kolb era. But, if they see empty locker rooms in 2011, then keeping Donovan for a year could prove more worthwhile.

Why Michael Vick Will Be Out of Town... Soon

You may have seen the report on NFL.com that Michael Vick likely won’t be traded until the preseason:

Sources from two teams who would be in the market for a quarterback said they don’t expect Vick to be dealt until the preseason. That’s when his value could be enhanced by strong preseason performances, a full offseason of work with his team and injuries/uncertainty at quarterback on other teams.

Spending $1.5 million to retain Vick’s services isn’t a significant impediment for a team like the Eagles, and while doing so also guarantees $1 million of the quarterback’s 2010 salary, that isn’t a major financial hindrance, either.

This just doesn’t make any sense to me. The argument seems to be that since Mike Vick hasn’t seen much action at quarterback, teams won’t want to trade for him before they see him in preseason games.

Um, what?

So these admittedly QB-needy teams can wait until after training camp and halfway through the preseason before acquiring their starting quarterback? And a quarterback who, because of his time away, is going to need all the reps he can get in what will likely be a new offense?

Yeah… I don’t buy that.

The only redeeming part of this report is that it helps us consider why the Eagles might choose to wait and pay Vick his bonus. Maybe if the team doesn’t get any offer it considers serious, it will wait until after the draft to send Vick to a team that missed out on its draft target. A conditional draft pick deal for 2011 could still be worked out.

But honestly I don’t see Vick’s value going up after the draft. By waiting, all you’ve done is eliminate a bunch of teams who might have been interested but have suddenly thrown in with Jimmy Clausen, Sam Bradford, or Tim Tebow.

Vick’s value is highest now, while there are a number of teams who could use his services both as a potentially-good starting quarterback and instant attention-grabber (with media coverage that would explode all offseason). As long as that’s the case, I’m sure the Eagles would rather get rid of Vick before they have to pay him $1.5 million. To keep Vick past the beginning of March, the Eagles would have to believe: Later deal > Deal now + $1.5 million bonus. I don’t see it.

Finally, not to repeat the GCobb/Kolb Contract-Gate fiasco all over again, but who are these sources, and what are their motives?

From “teams who would be in the market for a quarterback,” it seems like these two guys have a vested interest in Vick’s market value staying low. Saying that he’s not worth very much until he plays in preseason games sounds like posturing. Obviously teams can’t afford to wait that long. But that has to be part of the argument from one front office to another to lower the asking price for Vick.

$1.5 million might not sound like much in the greater context of things, but for a cap/money-smart team like the Eagles it’s tough to see them paying that to a guy who won’t be playing for them next year. Especially if there’s no likely payoff in terms of trade value.

A Few Notes on Kevin Kolb

First, the final (?) message on Cobb/Kolb Contractgate. Kevin went on 610-WIP earlier today and squashed the reporter who shares his name:

“We haven’t even talked to them as far as I know,” Kolb told WIP host Howard Eskin. “That totally blew me away when that was reported because that was obviously false.

“I don’t even talk to my agent [Jeff Nalley] that much about it because ultimately it doesn’t have anything to do with what we say. So we’re kind of just sitting back right now and letting things iron out. We know there’s still some time here and I’m sure there’ll be a phone call some time in the near future or a meeting. But as of right now we’re just going to let it iron out and have faith that the right decision’s going to be made.”

Ok, so on the surface at least, it seems like the Eagles and Kolb haven’t had any serious discussion yet. But this was still a strange interview. “As far as I know”? “I don’t even talk to my agent”? Those are just some weird statements from Kolb.

I’m not going any further than that. No point in stoking the flame more.

Second, here’s a flattering report on Kevin Kolb from Scouts Inc.’s Matt Williamson:

“He’s been very impressive in limited snaps, going back to preseason. Although last year he got thrown into action when [Donovan] McNabb got benched against the Baltimore Ravens, and he looked horrible. But that was the worst-case scenario for the poor guy, too, to go into the second half against one of the best defenses in the league with no preparation. So you tend to wash that away. But since then Kolb has really stepped it up, and I am high on him. I think he can make every throw. He’s a quick decision-maker, and he’s a good enough athlete. Kolb has everything you want physically, and the ball comes out of his hand really nice. He has an awful lot of upside, almost like a Matt Schaub when he was in Atlanta or Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay [waiting] behind Brett Favre. Kolb just needs to get a crack at it. I kind of feel like he’s the next guy to be breaking out, either with his present team or with a new team. Considering what some of the teams are starting in this league, I would start Kolb today, still being more of an unknown, over 10 or 12 starting quarterbacks for sure.”

A glowing report to be sure. It’s especially nice to hear Kolb “can make every throw,” since one of the big dropoffs to him from McNabb is arm strength. And maybe more important: “quick decision-maker.”

Williamson said he’d start Kolb over one third of QBs starting right now. That’s a big vote of confidence based on the few games he’s played. You have to think Andy Reid and the rest of the Eagles front office is even more positive on Kolb, with thousands of hours of practice on top of that.

It’ll be interesting to see how Reid characterizes Kolb if/when he finally takes over for McNabb, and how he knew Kolb was ready. Until then, I’ll take any (qualified) take that I can get.

Quarterback Trade for DL Help?

There have been two separate NFL reporters/commentators who have proposed possible trades involving Eagles quarterbacks — not for draft picks, but for veteran defensive linemen.

The first comes from National Football Post’s Michael Lombardi:

What if the Browns offered Pro Bowl nose tackle Shaun Rogers for Kolb?

Rogers would be a gap closer on the field. He would give the Eagles a dominating inside player, something they don’t currently have on their roster and someone who can match up with the Cowboys’ size along their offensive line. Rogers is signed to a long-term deal, he’s kept his weight down and he was a model citizen in Cleveland last season — all of which would be appealing to the Eagles. Kolb gives the Browns a future quarterback, something Holmgren knows he needs, without having to part with a draft pick. This trade might be a win/win for both teams.

A few weeks from turning 31, Rogers is coming off a down year in which he was placed on injured reserve for a broken leg. He’s worth even less than he was two years ago, when at 28 he was traded to Cleveland for a 3rd round pick and average cornerback Leigh Bodden.

So in order for this trade to work, the Eagles would have to think Kolb was worth much less than that deal. It’s strange that Lombardi would consider this proposal just one step down from the Brown’s 1st round draft pick — since Rogers is obviously worth at most a 3rd round pick.

If the Eagles are even willing to trade Kolb, there’s no way it’s for less than what Atlanta got for Matt Schaub a few years back: two 2nd round picks. This is a silly proposal.

The second trade idea, in response to a question, comes from ESPN blogger Pat Yasinskas:

If the Panthers tag Peppers and the Eagles made McNabb available in a trade, I think that’s something the Panthers would have to consider.

Yasinskas doesn’t say this is a perfect trade (as Lombardi does annoyingly), only mentions it as a possibility. But while I like Peppers a lot more than Rogers, this won’t happen either.

Think about it. Peppers does not want to be franchise tagged again. He wants a long-term deal, and will get one on the street. Assuming he gets to free agency, the Eagles will have to decide if they want to enter a bid.

What they won’t do is trade McNabb away just for the right to pay Peppers big bucks. That’s just wasteful.

Could Kolb/McNabb be traded to Cleveland/Carolina? It’s possible. Could they be traded for veteran players instead of or in addition to draft picks? Maybe. But these two specific proposals just don’t make sense.

Who Leaked the Kolb Contract Offer?

So we now have competing reports on whether the Eagles have actually offered Kevin Kolb a contract extension.

But regardless of its veracity, who did GCobb actually get the information from? He didn’t just make up an “NFL source.” Someone told him this. But who? And why?

It’s clear to me that the only entity this “leak” (calling it that even absent verification of truth) hurts is the Eagles. If the team actually wants to extend Kolb’s contract and trade McNabb, the best scenario is to work out a deal with Kolb without anyone hearing about it, trade McNabb, then announce Kolb’s new deal. Having the deal leak hurts McNabb’s trade value, while trading McNabb before a deal is in place with Kolb ratchets up the new starter’s leverage in negotiations. Obviously if the Eagles don’t actually want to extend Kolb at all, this is even more against their wishes.

In other words, unless there’s some kind of rift in the Eagles organization right now, it didn’t come from the NovaCare Complex.

So if it hurts the Eagles, who does it help? In theory the leak helps any team around the league interested in acquiring McNabb or Kolb. But I don’t believe GCobb would have believed, and continued to stand up for, a source from some random NFL who wouldn’t be privy to internal negotiations. Plus, they wouldn’t have been able to tell Cobb this part:

I learned that someone in the Eagles front office had communicated to Kolb more than a year ago that he was going to take over as the starting quarterback in a year or so.

Again, we have no way of verifying this information. But someone who Cobb believed would know that told him so.

So its not the Eagles. It can’t be some random NFL guy. There’s only one person/group who could have leaked it:

Kevin Kolb.

Let it sink in for a moment. This information getting to the public helps Kolb in his negotiations — because as soon as the Eagles have committed to him as their quarterback of 2010, they have to pay him accordingly. In other words, the Eagles currently have all the negotiating power because they can threaten to trade Kolb if he doesn’t accept their below market value contract extension.

As soon as word gets out, hopefully credibly but not identified as a source close to Kolb (I’m not saying Kolb got on the phone himself necessarily), the Eagles lose a little bit of that leverage. The public (which according to recent polling is heavily in favor of Kolb, not McNabb) will be expecting Kolb to be the starter next year. McNabb might even demand a trade once he hears that negotiations have been going on behind his back. Actually, these positive developments for Kolb are true even if there hasn’t been been any contract offer yet. The leak works from every angle.

Breaking: Eagles Offer Contract to Kevin Kolb

Update: Right on schedule Jeff McLane has a team source say the report is “completely 100 percent false.” Again, this may not be true. But its going to hurt the Eagles’ trade leverage no matter what.

Update (2): GCobb fires back at critics — “Wasn’t it interesting that Kolb’s agent had no comment about the matter?”

* * *

It’s all very vague, but GCobb has a source that says the Eagles have made an extension offer to Kevin Kolb, and offers some of his own analysis:

The Birds have been accused of a lot of things, but being bad businessmen isn’t one of them. They know they can get Kolb for less, if they work out a deal with him while they have McNabb and Vick on the roster.

They also know that they can pressure Kolb by telling him and his agent, that they would have to consider trading him if they couldn’t get him under contract for some “reasonable” numbers.

All of the above is certainly true. Right now, in terms of contracts, the Eagles have all the power. They can say, “Look over at the Phillies and how they handled Cliff Lee. If you’re looking for some ridiculous sum (in other words, anything higher than what we offer) then we’ll go with the other guy.”

But in order to keep Kolb, you’re going to have to pay him starter money. He might accept something below market value (whatever that is for a guy who’s only made two starts), but it still is going to be greater than what you pay a backup. And there’s no way he and McNabb will both be here next year at starter’s salaries.

Thus, the problem with even offering him a new contract is the Eagles have tipped their hand as to whom they want behind center next year. At the negotiating table with Kolb that might be ok, because you still hold all the cards. But what does your leverage look like when you talk with Buffalo or San Francisco or whoever comes calling next about McNabb?

I’m sure the Eagles will deny the report whether its true or not for that very reason. But its too late — the cat’s out of the bag. Every team now knows, or think they know, that McNabb can’t be back next year. Look for them to take advantage of that.