Why Nick Foles Is Better Than Ever (But Can't Stay This Good)

I call him SuperNick. The man who threw seven touchdown passes in little more than three quarters of play deserves such a cartoon moniker. But how did "one of the better backups in the NFL" become in one afternoon the guy who plays what "might have been the best three-quarters of a game we've ever witnessed"?

The simple answer is, he didn't. With the notable exception of four horrendous quarters against Dallas where he looked like he sustained a concussion before he ever got to the stadium, Foles has looked good all year. Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg may have the quarterback guru reputation, but Chip Kelly's offense has been much friendlier to QBs than he gets credit for. Why? Because his spread-option, up tempo, zone read running attack forces opponents to pick their poison. Kelly has repeated versions of this quote for years:

"They can't defend it all. I'm really happy with how we threw the ball. If you're going to devote nine guys and try to stop the run, God bless you, and we'll throw it."

Since early in the season, defenses have made their choice: plug the box with seven or eight players and keep just one safety back deep. That often leaves man-to-man coverage on the outside against DeSean Jackson and Riley Cooper. Those are golden matchups for a quarterback, but the Eagles haven't executed. As Sheil Kapadia wrote after the Cowboys game, "An average QB performance likely would have yielded 300+ yards and a score in the 20s." Unfortunately, Foles couldn't make that happen. Neither could Matt Barkley, as Derek Sarley showed last week.

Jump ahead to the Raiders game, and Foles finally started taking advantage of those one-on-one matchups, just as he did against the Buccaneers. Fran Duffy diagrammed all 7 TDs, and over and over you saw Cooper and Jackson beating man coverage -- and passes actually finding them. The gains were comical. Check out how Foles' numbers on long passes differ from last year (stats courtesy Pro Football Focus):

To start with, Foles is attempting about 50% more long passes than he did with Andy Reid at the helm. That's a big jump. His current rate of 16.1% is near the top of the league, after placing in the bottom half last season. This change is entirely about the offense; Michael Vick has also seen a spike in his deep balls, bringing him back to 2010 levels after declines the last two years.

But where things start to get crazy is the long ball effectiveness. Foles completed only 36% of passes 20 yards or longer in 2012. That's up to nearly 53% so far this year. Long ball completion percentage is a huge indicator of success. Look at the list of QBs who posted 48% or above last year: Kaepernick, Rodgers, P. Manning, Newton, Griffin, Brees, Wilson. That's elite territory.

Can Foles keep that completion rate up? Unclear. While there may be some regression to the mean, I'm actually bullish on this front. Kelly's offense seems to be giving his QBs a boost. Vick has also seen a double-digit jump in 20+ yard completion rate, so Foles' numbers may not be an aberration.

Touchdown and interception rates are another matter. Foles is averaging an insane four TDs for every ten long passes he throws. Eight out of his ten completions at that distance have gone for six points. He also has no interceptions at any distance all year -- the only quarterback with more than 75 passes who can say that. (No fumbles either.)

Even if the completion percentage stands, those most certainly won't. Last year, RGIII led the league in touchdown rate on passes of 20 yards or more -- at only 19.4%. Even if defenses don't significantly adjust their coverage schemes (although I expect they'll have to back out of the box more now), Foles simply can't count on the type of luck he's had so far with defenders falling down, receivers wide open, and more. He also eventually will start throwing interceptions. Last year he threw them on just 1.9% on all throws, but Football Outsiders' adjusted interception rate showed a more pedestrian 4.2% after accounting for defenders dropping would-be picks.

The first takeaway here is that SuperNick's current outsized numbers will almost certainly come back to Earth. He may be good the rest of the year, but he won't be that good. The second takeaway is more important, though. Foles' improvement is only over a small sample, but it may not be an anomaly. Kelly is putting his quarterbacks in a great position to succeed, and when defenses change to prevent that, it will only give McCoy more room to run. If the Chip's scheme looks this good with competent QB play from a limited upside guy like Foles, think about what it might do with a true top-tier talent at the position.

Bowles Turned Down Raiders Coordinator Job

Jonathan Tamari:

Bowles, the only new addition to the coaching staff, took the Eagles job over offers to become the defensive coordinator in Oakland, to remain the assistant head coach/secondary coach in Miami, or take the same position in Cincinnati.

Obviously, we’re taking new secondary coach Todd Bowles at his word here, but it’s surprising to say the least. Perhaps Bowles thought that his input would actually have a bigger impact working “under” Juan Castillo rather than defensive-minded Raiders head coach Dennis Allen.

Dissecting the Recent Rumors on McNabb

There’s been a lot of rumors flying around over the last week. Time to step back and look at them piece by piece. Let’s use Mike Florio’s McNabb magnum opus as a jumping off point, since it seems pretty obvious to me that his source is inside the Eagles organization:

Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the Eagles are receiving offers from teams that have not been identified publicly at the request of the teams making the offers.  This is happening for two reasons:  (1) some of the teams have incumbent starting quarterbacks who would be confused, to say the least, if they learned that McNabb could be joining the club; and (2) none of the teams want fans or the media to know that they are courting McNabb, in the event that they fail to land him. This doesn’t explain the fact that the Bills, Rams, and Raiders have been named as potential trade partners.  According to the source, however, the Eagles have disclosed to no one the names of the teams with whom they are or aren’t talking.

Put simply, in order for Florio to be so sure there are teams talking to the Eagles that no one has heard of, he has to have talked to someone with the Eagles. Think about it.

First of all, no one could know that there are other teams in the mix who haven’t been mentioned unless they were working for one of those teams or for the Eagles. Since those teams clearly have no desire to make it public, and wouldn’t know there are multiple “teams” interested, it had to have been the Eagles.

Second, only the Eagles have an incentive to get this information out there — true or not. If there are only negotiations with Oakland, Buffalo, etc. than this could give Philadelphia the upper hand. I’m not saying the new rumor isn’t true — there probably are a number of teams who have quietly inquired about the price tag on McNabb. But this is just as self-serving to the Eagles as McLane’s McNabb-to-Rams report.

In any case, who could these teams with “incumbent starting quarterbacks” be? Basically you’re talking about teams that don’t have a mix of quarterbacks (looking at you Oakland), but rather have a nominal starter. This category of teams would probably include teams like Carolina, Jacksonville, San Francisco, maybe even Tennessee.

We initially believed that Jeff McLane’s erroneous report that McNabb could be a Ram by the end of the week was the Eagles themselves, who were floating a phony rumor in the hopes of sending a “speak now or forever hold your piece/peace” vibe to other interested teams.  Based on our source, McLane apparently had a different source.

“Based on our source…” — i.e. “From what the Eagles told me, they had nothing to do with McLane’s report.” And again, I think it’s funny that Florio would discredit the possibility McLane’s report was the Eagles putting out stuff to boost the offers on McNabb, when that’s exactly what his report here does as well!

It’s possible that McLane’s source was McNabb himself, or agent Fletcher Smith.  (McLane’s subsequent report that McNabb prefers playing for the Vikings suggests he has a pipeline into the McNabb camp.)  This approach by McNabb would allow him to push the issue to a head without pulling a Jay Cutler and openly demanding a trade.

Interesting idea. Thought not sure if it’s really in McNabb’s best interest to push a trade to the Rams that hasn’t actually been discussed — unless he’s really just fed up with the whole process and finally wants out of Philadelphia. But this type of analysis treads awfully close to Deadspin’s interpretation.

The McLane report isn’t the only nugget that might not reflect reality.  ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio says that no one is willing to offer more than a third-round pick.  But as our source pointed out, “Has he talked to every team and have they told him their offer?”

Or I don’t know, maybe he just talked to one team that’s interested in keeping the price low… Sal Pal is close to worthless these days.

Finally, the Associated Press reported that the Eagles want the 42nd pick or higher in the 2010 draft.  (And, of course, the AP report was taken as gospel truth because the AP has never been wrong.)  Said the source, “Does anyone really believe the Eagles would pick such a random number and draw a line in the sand?”  We’re told that something higher than this reported threshold already has been offered.  The source believes that the “42 or higher” requirement was leaked by one or more other teams in order to frame the value — and possibly to create local pressure on the Eagles, many of whose fans generally are anxious, to say the least, to see McNabb get run out of town.

First of all, yes, I can see the Eagles saying they want a first round pick or early 2nd rounder (probably plus something extra) for McNabb and not budging. And how exactly does this create local pressure? The fact that the Eagles are asking for a high pick doesn’t sound crazier than anything else — a better way to put the pressure on the Eagles would be to release Sal Pal’s report, or (better yet) say the team would be willing to take a 3rd rounder.

Instead, this basically affirms the stance the Eagles took if they were the ones to leak the 33rd overall pick and FS O.J. Atogwe deal to McLane — they want first round value, and aren’t afraid to ask for it. By telling the AP this, the Eagles front office has essentially told the teams that are snooping around, offering late-second or third round picks to get serious or get left behind. And Florio affirms that the Eagles have in fact gotten an offer “higher than this reported threshold.”

As we understand it, the Eagles have received a variety of offers, with draft picks only and players only and players and picks.  We’re told that the Eagles have never placed an asking price on McNabb.  Instead, they’re doing exactly what we reported in early March that they’d do — sitting back and waiting for the offers to come and evaluating them at the appropriate time.

Ha. No asking price on McNabb. I don’t believe that for one second. Maybe early in the process, but by now the Eagles have to be seriously telling teams, either through the press or in direct talks, that they want at least one high pick.

* * *

By the way, a couple notes on Michael Lombardi’s post yesterday about McNabb and similar rumors:

A team executive told me the Raiders and Vikings are discussing the availability of backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels. Trading Rosenfels would only happen if the Vikings know for certain that Brett Favre is coming back.

The Sage Rosenfels chatter is the most obvious sign Oakland is in serious negotiations with Philadelphia about McNabb. They’re trying to show they can go other directions.

Many executives I talked to last week wondered why the 49ers are not actively pursuing McNabb. With McNabb, the 49ers would be the favorites to win the NFC West. As I often write, the biggest problem in the NFL is evaluating your own team, and the 49ers really believe they’re set at QB.

Agreed 100%. If San Francisco isn’t one of those teams who, according to Florio, are in quiet talks with the Eagles, they truly are incompetent.

Sizing Up the Rumored Contenders for McNabb

Trade winds are blowing, folks. Looks like the action’s dwindled to a few teams competing for Donovan McNabb. One piece of news comes from sources talking to Tommy Lawlor:

“The latest reports I’m getting are that the Raiders are the frontrunners… The Jaguars remain interested, but it seems as if the Raiders are being more aggressive with their offer.  I don’t have any firm details, but the 8th overall pick in the 2010 draft is being talked about.  Jacksonville may try to come up with a counter-offer, but it doesn’t seem like they want to get into a bidding war.”

Lawlor also says Buffalo was more involved in trade talks yesterday, but that the Bills conversations have died down today.

Mike Florio has a tipster who gives some ridiculous terms of a trade with the Raiders:

“Per the tip — uncorroborated but nevertheless intriguing — McNabb and cornerback Asante Samuel would go to Oakland, and cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha would go to Philadelphia.”

I don’t buy that one. Asomugha is better than Samuel, but not by an amount of McNabb. Especially since the cornerbacks are the same age and the Raiders just gave Nnamdi a lot of money. Still, interesting to see outlines of deals emerging. Oakland could be deeper into conversations about getting McNabb than we thought.

Finally, no more reputable a source than the Associated Press reports that “a person familiar with trade discussions involving McNabb” says the Eagles:

“will only consider a deal for the six-time Pro Bowl quarterback if it includes a pick among the top 42 in next month’s NFL draft.”

That’s a strange number. Until you consider that its just outside the Bills’ second round pick. Maybe the Eagles are trying to signal to the Bills how serious they are about getting at least their 2nd round pick.

Also it means maybe Eagles fans should temper their enthusiasm about getting a high 1st round pick like one from the currently discussed teams. If the Eagles are putting it out there that they want a high 2nd rounder, it may mean that top picks are already off the table.

In any case, let’s take a closer look at the three teams being talked about:

• Oakland Raiders — Draft Picks: #8 overall, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, two 5ths, two 7ths. Drafting a 1st round quarterback bust is killer in the NFL. Tim Couch, Joey Harrington, and now JaMarcus Russell. You whiff in the first round and it just messes up your team for years. Maybe the Raiders think trading for a proven quarterback is the way to jump start a turnaround. While I disagree with Lawlor’s assessment that McNabb might actually be “open” to starting the season in Black and Silver, Oakland may not care. They had no problem trading their 2011 first round pick to the Patriots for another veteran who didn’t want to be there, Richard Seymour, then slapped the franchise tag on him last month to keep him around for another year.
• Buffalo Bills — Draft Picks: #9 overall, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, two 6ths, 2 7ths. Another team that’s made some bad decisions on quarterbacks, and now has a new coach in Chan Gailey who doesn’t seem all that intent on grooming someone for awhile in the competitive AFC East — he’s said he wants the position resolved before the draft. The problem is McNabb may not want to go to upstate NY either. Buffalo really doesn’t have much talent — maybe even less than Oakland. And I’m not sure the Bills, unlike the unconventional Raiders, will be as willing to play it year to year with McNabb.
• Jacksonville Jaguars — Draft Picks: #10 overall, 3rd, 4th, 5th, two 6th. It’s easy to say that after committing to David Garrard two years ago as starting quarterback that Jacksonville must not want anyone else. But Garrard has really stalled the last two seasons, since getting his 6-year, $60 million deal, showing he’s little more than a mediocre passer. Coach Jack Del Rio has expressed concern about Garrard and even the QB himself has acknowledged that he’s competing for the starting job with journeyman back up Luke McCown. If the team is even considering starting McCown, especially knowing it needs desperately to sell tickets, McNabb might be a good place to start.

Besides uncertainty at the quarterback position, there’s one interesting common thread through all three of these teams: each one was bad, but not bad enough to ensure a shot at one of the top quarterbacks in the draft. For example, I don’t think there’s much separating St. Louis and Buffalo. They’re both bad franchises that need to rebuild. The difference — which may be why Buffalo’s pursuing McNabb and St. Louis is shooting down rumors — is that the Rams can go out and pick the best quarterback in the NFL draft (presumably Sam Bradford). Buffalo has no shot at Bradford, and a small chance even to get less-liked Jimmy Clausen, who could end up with Mike Shanahan in Washington with the 4th pick.

One thing I still don’t understand is why San Francisco hasn’t been linked to McNabb. Alex Smith really isn’t any better than Brad Gradkowski or David Garrard and the 49ers have a team that overall could be ready to take the next step with a solid quarterback. With two picks in the first round, I’d be clamoring for McNabb if I were Mike Singletary.

What We Learned Yesterday

So yesterday was rather hectic. You can see the bizarre up and down nature of the day, rife with Andy’s reveal, very specific trade rumors, and more at yesterday’s updated thread.

But now that we’ve moved on from thinking the McNabb trade is immediately imminent, what have we learned?

• Don’t believe every rumor you hear over the next few days and weeks. The Rams rumor sounded nice and the whole web got caught up in it, but sometimes where there is smoke there is no fire at all.
• With that said, you can now safely assume that McNabb will not be in Midnight Green next year. It’s nice to look at Andy’s words and see that he never rules out that possibility, but you have to consider his words before yesterday. All Andy had said was that he was happy with his quarterbacks and that he wasn’t looking to trade any of them. After probably weeks of limited interest, the Eagles front office decided to kick trade talks up a notch — by going public with their interest. There’s no way they do that if they aren’t set on trading McNabb.
• It sounds like someone close to the Eagles might have unleashed the 33rd pick and FS OJ Atogwe rumor to drive up McNabb’s price. Whether or not the Rams are actually involved in talks (and I never thought they were a likely candidate), clearly there are now trade conversations going on with multiple teams. The Rams rumor and Andy’s announcement that the Eagles were open for offers has worked — at least to some degree — to drive up immediate interest.
• Tommy Lawlor says the Bills, Raiders, and Jaguars have “all made serious inquiries into trading McNabb.” According to Lawlor’s sources the teams “have shown some willingness to deal their 1st round pick” but the Eagles are also “exploring scenarios where a lesser pick and veteran player would be the compensation.” If true, the Eagles have finally gotten multiple teams to bite. That’s what they’ve needed all along — a little bidding war. We’ll keep track of this.
• It seems like the Eagles are getting desperate enough that they won’t be trading McNabb to a playoff contender. One would have thought that Reid would try to accomodate his best and closest player, but with serious rumors about Oakland, that’s tough to do. I still have to ask: where is San Francisco?
• I think the more you hear about the specifics of a particular offer, the more likely it is that that offer is not true. Any actual trade, if talks are progressing well, will take place entirely behind closed doors. It’s in neither team’s best interests to publicize details and risk talks collapsing. We’ll probably get rumors about who’s talking to whom constantly now, but the actual announcement will come out of the blue.

Keep checking back for more updates, news, and analysis. The blog may not be much longer for this world…

McNabb Trade Rumors Swirl: Updated Thread

Regardless of the intentions of Andy Reid finally opening up on the possibility of McNabb being traded, it certainly has set the NFL media world on fire. Check here for the latest rumors as we hear them.

7:21 pm — Jay Glazer gets off a plane and chimes in. Affirms that there is no Rams deal, but that Buffalo, Oakland, and two other teams have “shown interest.” Apparently the Eagles rebuffed offers for Kolb but were open on McNabb.

6:47 pm — Might be time to call it. To the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Rams general manager Billy Devaney shot down the persistent McNabb rumors, calling them “absolutely false.” He added:

“It’s utterly ridiculous. I haven’t talked to Philadelphia about any of their players.”

That sounds about as definitive as it gets. Maybe this blog will last untill tomorrow after all.

6:29 pm — Yahoo Sports, the third outlet to do so, reports on Twitter that a “dependable Rams source” says St. Louis has NOT offered its second round pick for McNabb. Might all of this talk have been based on false information?

6:18 pm — Mike Holmgren weighs in on the McNabb rumors. The Cleveland Browns president told the Cleveland Plain-Dealer that his team is not pursuing Donovan (anymore?):

“The ship has sailed.”

6:11 pm — NFL FanHouse gets in on the debunking. Sources say Rams trade “pure speculation right now.”

6:05 pm — Tommy Lawlor’s got a “new source” that indicates “something could be going down with the Bills.” He also talks about the potential Rams deal.

5:30 pm — Anybody else notice this from Andy Reid’s talk earlier, when asked what he thought of the new draft format:

I’d love to have that first pick of the second day. Where you can sleep on it, regather your thoughts, which you normally don’t get to do.

That sly bastard.

5:20 pm — PFT cites a Rams source that there is “zero truth” to the McNabb to St. Louis rumors, that “all focus” is on draft options at that position. Could just be posturing in negotiations with Eagles.

5:00 pm — Jeff McLane (who certainly has come a long way in a hurry from Happy Valley) reports that there’s already “an offer on the table” for “St. Louis’ second-round draft pick (33rd overall) and free safety Oshiomogho Atogwe in exchange for McNabb.”

While “not yet completed,” this seems like the best offer we’ve seen for McNabb so far. And apparently McNabb would be willing to sing a long-term deal with the Rams.

3:00 pm — Yahoo Sports reports “the Buffalo Bills and Oakland Raiders have inquired about the quarterback’s availability.” However, as we anticipated, “McNabb likely wouldn’t sign a long-term deal in either Buffalo or Oakland.”

The Updated Odds on McNabb Destinations

A lot of quarterback moves in the NFL since free agency began. The Seahawks got themselves a new, if unproven, quarterback of the future. The Browns exchanged two mediocre quarterbacks for two more. In fact, 15 of the league’s 32 teams have made some sort of change at the position.

So with all that change, some have suggested that the market for McNabb is drying up. Maybe to a degree, but there are still a number of teams who still seem like they would be interested at the right price. It’s been awhile since we last examined the options. Let’s give them a quick look, in rough order of likelihood:

• San Francisco 49ers — I still think the 49ers repesent the most likely destination for McNabb. They have the need, the means, and a demonstrated interest. With Kurt Warner’s retirement, San Fran is a good quarterback away from being the class of the NFC West. The defense is solid, the offense has talented playmakers from Gore to Crabtree to Davis. Last year, the Niners made a strong push for Warner — and despite their declarations of support for Alex Smith and commitment to David Carr as a back-up, McNabb would be a huge upgrade. Additionally, the team has two first round picks (13 and 17), which makes McNabb’s price tag feasible. Even McNabb would probably be happy there. The only big question I have is how their chaotic front office situation will affect their decision-making process.
• Buffalo Bills — I can see where McNabb would be hesitant to go up to moribound Buffalo, but the Bills are one of the few teams actually broadcasting a need for quarterback. Coach Chan Gailey and company have been open to the idea of a trade, and the team has already been burned twice by mediocre draft picks.
• Jacksonville Jaguars — Jack Del Rio has not been quiet about his disappointment with current starter David Garrard, and McNabb would be a big step up. He (or Michael Vick) would also boost attendance figures.
• Carolina Panthers — While the team is outwardly fine with going into 2010 with Matt Moore as their starter, that still would be a large risk for a coach and front office on the hot seat. Also, Moore is the only quarterback with any experience on the roster. Trading for Vick as a back up and possible challenger might make more sense, but McNabb could immediately put them back into playoff contention. They don’t have a 1st round pick, which hurts their chances at McNabb, but also at getting a QB of the future.
• Minnesota Vikings — Only jump back in to this discussion if Favre decides he’s not coming back, which seems like a longshot from here.
• Cleveland Browns — They’ve got two veterans for back-up/keep-the-seat-warm duty while they groom a mid-round QB prospect who catches Mike Holmgren’s eye.
• Seattle Seahawks — Found their guy in Charlie Whitehurst, apparently.
• Arizona Cardinals — McNabb’s dream destination appears to be a competition between Derek Anderson and Matt Leinart.
• Denver Broncos — Kyle Orton is the present. Brady Quinn (gag) is the future.
• Oakland Raiders — Don’t really see McNabb ever approving a trade to Oakland.

Certainly there are a lot of teams now out of the running. Sound off in the comments where you think McNabb will end up, if anywhere.

Where Vick Will Go: The Breakdown

So, as we’ve already done with McNabb, it’s time to breakdown where Michael Vick might end up.

Maybe I didn’t make it very clear last time, but my thoughts on distinguishing landing spots for McNabb and Vick is simple. I see three largely distinct groups of teams looking for quarterbacks this offseason. There’s the group who should be interested in McNabb: contenders who just need a good QB to put them over the top (e.g. MIN, ARI, SF). There’s the group who should be looking to the draft: teams rebuilding long term (e.g. STL, CLE, SEA). And then, somewhere in between, there’s the Vick group: those that don’t have the time or don’t want to fully rebuild, and are in some way desperate for attention (e.g. BUF, JAC, OAK).

This is definitely reductionist. For example, St. Louis might decide, as has been recently rumored, that Vick is a good bet for their franchise. Or Buffalo might want to go get McNabb instead. These are basic categories for who most likely will be interested — and you can definitely disagree with me.

But while we’re here, let’s define the Vick category a little better:

1. Not Blowing Up and Rebuilding: I would be shocked if someone like Pete Carroll traded for Vick. He has the luxury of a few years to rebuild his team the way he wants — and can therefore take the time to develop his own QB. Whatever team takes Vick has to be looking to win now.
2. Not a Contender Either: Arizona will not be risking their Super Bowl chances on the play of a quarterback who hasn’t played in two years. Unlike McNabb, Vick isn’t the last piece in the puzzle (and he may never have been).
3. Franchise Uncertainty: Trading for Vick is inherently risky. The cost might not be very high for him, but he hasn’t started an NFL game in two years. Are you willing to risk your job on his performance? To some degree, the front office and/or coach is going to have to feel pressured to make a bold move and have something happen right away. Any team with the time or confidence to rebuild slowly won’t be looking at Vick.
4. Desperation: This is what I think highlights the Vick-chasers most. Vick has maybe always been more hype than hero, and after two years away from the game that is definitely the case. Plus, he’s still a PR risk (although not as much as he was before the Eagles took the hit). He still can be an exciting addition to a team looking to return from obscurity — or just attract more fans.
5. Need a QB, and Maybe Don’t Want to “Try Again”: Kind of obvious, but this team can’t be set at quarterback. However, I think that they might be more likely contenders if they’ve already been burned once with a QB. San Francisco and Oakland fit that bill — both having tried and failed with #1 overall picks.

So that’s the basic outline we’re talking about. Desperate, attention-seeking, uncertain, middling teams. Who, per the rumors about Vick, fits this bill:

• Oakland Raiders: Oakland was rumored to be interested last year, but Vick (or Tony Dungy) supposedly turned them down. Vick is everything Al Davis loves — speedy, flashy, big arm. And having already been burned by JaMarcus Russell, trading for a starter makes more sense. Of course, little Oakland does “makes sense.” Then again, that may be a mark in their favor.
• Buffalo Bills: Could be interested in McNabb, but the team reeks of desperation to me. They’re trying to stay relevant while rumors swirl about a move away from upper NY (See: move for TO). New coach who probably won’t be around long enough to mentor a new QB could be interested in Vick.
• Jacksonville Jaguars: As I already talked about, the Jags could be an ideal spot for Vick. David Garrard hasn’t wowed anyone, and everyone knows that their biggest problem is attendance. They have to get a game-changer this offseason to reverse that trend — whether that’s Tim Tebow or Michael Vick.
• San Francisco 49ers: I still think they’re more likely McNabb suitors, but if Mike Singletary likes Vick and wants to work with him, don’t count this out.
• St. Louis Rams: Apparently there’s been interest, but I think Spags would be better suited continuing his long-term rebuilding plan.
• Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks: Other teams with new regimes and long-term strategies. See above.
• Carolina Panthers: Also mentioned them with McNabb, but this could be John Fox’s last year. If he doesn’t want to tie his future to Matt Moore, Vick could be an option.
• Miami Dolphins: I know some people suggest this. Not likely. Chad Henne is their guy. (This also goes for DET, TB, KC)
• Washington Redskins: If they weren’t in the NFC East, I’d say Daniel Snyder’s team would be in hot pursuit.

The takeaway: it’s tough to tell who’s really interested in Vick and who’d be willing to send a conditional pick for him. If the Eagles are forced to drop him before his bonus comes up then a lot of teams could be inquiring. Ultimately, though, I think the Jags take Tebow and either Buffalo or Oakland send something to the Eagles for Vick.

Thoughts?