Eagles-Jaguars Preseason Thoughts: How To Combat The Scrape-Exchange

Is it too late to talk about the Eagles' third preseason game? Hope not, because that's what I'm about to do. 

•  When we last talked, I was remarking about how bad Trent Cole looks in his new role. Shocker: he's still bad. In the few nickel snaps that he put his hand in the ground and rushed the passer, Cole got some good pressure (as he always has). But putting him in space does no one any good in coverage and it has so far hindered his naturally good run defense. Especially bad: any play that has him line up over the slot receiver and blitz. First, it's not fooling anyone. Second, he's too far away from the quarterback to do any damage.
• Luckily, the rest of the linebacking core is shaping up well so far. DeMeco Ryans has been solid, if unspectacular. Mychal Kendricks was a force all over the field against the Jagurs, and was often brought on blitzes up the middle (with Cole dropping back though). On the other side, Connor Barwin continues to impress. His interception was the most athletic feat we've seen an awhile at linebacker. Interesting note: on that play, the Eagles kept their base defense in on Jacksonville's 2nd and 19, against 4 WRs and 1 TE. Odd choice.
• I am a paying member of the Patrick Chung fan club. He's not a star, but watching him come up and make solid tackles is a revelation. 
• I didn't think Michael Vick was as horrible as the post-game narrative suggested. He held on to the ball too long a few times and threw one bad pick. But Vick also made some laser completions and showed ample mobility. He was never going to be as perfect as he had shown through the first two contests. Plus, the offensive line wasn't exactly in peak form early.
• In truth, the offense Chip Kelly had Vick run seldom resembled that of the previous games. There was more under-center snaps and down-the-field passing routes than we were shown before. As some remarked, it looked at times more like an Andy Reid offense than one run by Kelly.
•  Sheil Kapadia has a good breakdown of what looks like the Jaguars using the scrape-exchange to combat the zone read. Here's what it looks like below. As in their typical zone read play, the Eagles let the defensive end go unblocked, with Lane Johnson crashing down on the guard, and Todd Herremans releasing to the second level. However, in the scrape-exchange, the defensive end is trained to immediately come down the line at the running back, forcing the QB keeper. The linebacker Herremans must reach arcs around the outside instead (away from the would-be block) and gets in Vick's face right away:

• It worked great in the above play, but not only is the scrape hard to pull off, it's not all that difficult to combat either.  The first way is simply for Vick to get better at running the QB keeper and executing the second option. On this play he ran vertically too quickly instead of laterally, negating any chance to throw the quick bubble screen to DeSean Jackson.
• The second way is even easier: just don't run the zone read. Think about what happens in the above play if the Jaguars defenders get too comfortable executing the scrape, only to have the Eagles block normally. If Johnson and Herremans take on their defenders straight up and the linebacker comes around the edge instead of up the middle, there's going to be a huge hole for the running back. The offense can use further deception with an H-back in the backfield. That player come across the formation to lead blocker with multiple choices about who to attack. The below image comes from Chris Brown's (always excellent) breakdown of this technique:

• Want another option? How about stop reading the defensive end? By mixing up the read, you can keep defenders unsure of their responsibility. Last time we talked about a play where the Eagles read a defensive tackle. Here's a similar play in which Vick reads the linebacker(s):

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• And here's even more variation. This time the Eagles read the end, but if Vick keeps it he's running behind a pulling guard in Evan Mathis. Bryce Brown picks up 11 yards to the left on this run after the zone read freezes the unblocked defender, but I wonder how many yards Vick would have gotten had he pulled it down himself to the right:

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• By the way, Jamar Chaney did seemingly everything possible to try to get cut over the last couple of years. What finally did him in? Not being able to block a punter on special teams. Ouch.
• And what is the Toddfather doing below cavorting with the enemy, aka Jason Baboon?

Want more Eagles analysis? Don't forget to grab your copy of the Eagles Almanac! 

Eagles at Jaguars: The Big Question

The Eagles quarterback controversy has made headlines all week as the Eagles prepare for a trip to Jacksonville, but defense is where many of the problems have come from early in the season. There is hope, though, which is why our biggest question of the week is:

Can Stewart Bradley, returning from injury, help return the defense to an elite level?

Ironically, we were asking this same question before the season began. Then Bradley was returning from an ACL injury. Back now from a concussion, the 6-foot-4 255-pound linebacker is ready to return to his starting spot in the middle of the defensive formation…

Breaking Down the Eagles' 1st Preseason Game

*LeSean McCoy looked really solid. He doesn’t have the three-step acceleration that Brian Westbrook had, but his slashing style will be productive. Shady also does seem to have added some muscle and has looked more confident holding the ball close to his body. I feel good about him.

*Unfortunately, I don’t feel good about the middle of the offensive line. It seemed there were a few times where Max Jean-Gilles and Stacy Andrews failed to get any push up the middle and McCoy was forced to just lean into their backs for two yards…

What We Learned Yesterday

So yesterday was rather hectic. You can see the bizarre up and down nature of the day, rife with Andy’s reveal, very specific trade rumors, and more at yesterday’s updated thread.

But now that we’ve moved on from thinking the McNabb trade is immediately imminent, what have we learned?

• Don’t believe every rumor you hear over the next few days and weeks. The Rams rumor sounded nice and the whole web got caught up in it, but sometimes where there is smoke there is no fire at all.
• With that said, you can now safely assume that McNabb will not be in Midnight Green next year. It’s nice to look at Andy’s words and see that he never rules out that possibility, but you have to consider his words before yesterday. All Andy had said was that he was happy with his quarterbacks and that he wasn’t looking to trade any of them. After probably weeks of limited interest, the Eagles front office decided to kick trade talks up a notch — by going public with their interest. There’s no way they do that if they aren’t set on trading McNabb.
• It sounds like someone close to the Eagles might have unleashed the 33rd pick and FS OJ Atogwe rumor to drive up McNabb’s price. Whether or not the Rams are actually involved in talks (and I never thought they were a likely candidate), clearly there are now trade conversations going on with multiple teams. The Rams rumor and Andy’s announcement that the Eagles were open for offers has worked — at least to some degree — to drive up immediate interest.
• Tommy Lawlor says the Bills, Raiders, and Jaguars have “all made serious inquiries into trading McNabb.” According to Lawlor’s sources the teams “have shown some willingness to deal their 1st round pick” but the Eagles are also “exploring scenarios where a lesser pick and veteran player would be the compensation.” If true, the Eagles have finally gotten multiple teams to bite. That’s what they’ve needed all along — a little bidding war. We’ll keep track of this.
• It seems like the Eagles are getting desperate enough that they won’t be trading McNabb to a playoff contender. One would have thought that Reid would try to accomodate his best and closest player, but with serious rumors about Oakland, that’s tough to do. I still have to ask: where is San Francisco?
• I think the more you hear about the specifics of a particular offer, the more likely it is that that offer is not true. Any actual trade, if talks are progressing well, will take place entirely behind closed doors. It’s in neither team’s best interests to publicize details and risk talks collapsing. We’ll probably get rumors about who’s talking to whom constantly now, but the actual announcement will come out of the blue.

Keep checking back for more updates, news, and analysis. The blog may not be much longer for this world…

The Updated Odds on McNabb Destinations

A lot of quarterback moves in the NFL since free agency began. The Seahawks got themselves a new, if unproven, quarterback of the future. The Browns exchanged two mediocre quarterbacks for two more. In fact, 15 of the league’s 32 teams have made some sort of change at the position.

So with all that change, some have suggested that the market for McNabb is drying up. Maybe to a degree, but there are still a number of teams who still seem like they would be interested at the right price. It’s been awhile since we last examined the options. Let’s give them a quick look, in rough order of likelihood:

• San Francisco 49ers — I still think the 49ers repesent the most likely destination for McNabb. They have the need, the means, and a demonstrated interest. With Kurt Warner’s retirement, San Fran is a good quarterback away from being the class of the NFC West. The defense is solid, the offense has talented playmakers from Gore to Crabtree to Davis. Last year, the Niners made a strong push for Warner — and despite their declarations of support for Alex Smith and commitment to David Carr as a back-up, McNabb would be a huge upgrade. Additionally, the team has two first round picks (13 and 17), which makes McNabb’s price tag feasible. Even McNabb would probably be happy there. The only big question I have is how their chaotic front office situation will affect their decision-making process.
• Buffalo Bills — I can see where McNabb would be hesitant to go up to moribound Buffalo, but the Bills are one of the few teams actually broadcasting a need for quarterback. Coach Chan Gailey and company have been open to the idea of a trade, and the team has already been burned twice by mediocre draft picks.
• Jacksonville Jaguars — Jack Del Rio has not been quiet about his disappointment with current starter David Garrard, and McNabb would be a big step up. He (or Michael Vick) would also boost attendance figures.
• Carolina Panthers — While the team is outwardly fine with going into 2010 with Matt Moore as their starter, that still would be a large risk for a coach and front office on the hot seat. Also, Moore is the only quarterback with any experience on the roster. Trading for Vick as a back up and possible challenger might make more sense, but McNabb could immediately put them back into playoff contention. They don’t have a 1st round pick, which hurts their chances at McNabb, but also at getting a QB of the future.
• Minnesota Vikings — Only jump back in to this discussion if Favre decides he’s not coming back, which seems like a longshot from here.
• Cleveland Browns — They’ve got two veterans for back-up/keep-the-seat-warm duty while they groom a mid-round QB prospect who catches Mike Holmgren’s eye.
• Seattle Seahawks — Found their guy in Charlie Whitehurst, apparently.
• Arizona Cardinals — McNabb’s dream destination appears to be a competition between Derek Anderson and Matt Leinart.
• Denver Broncos — Kyle Orton is the present. Brady Quinn (gag) is the future.
• Oakland Raiders — Don’t really see McNabb ever approving a trade to Oakland.

Certainly there are a lot of teams now out of the running. Sound off in the comments where you think McNabb will end up, if anywhere.

Where Vick Will Go: The Breakdown

So, as we’ve already done with McNabb, it’s time to breakdown where Michael Vick might end up.

Maybe I didn’t make it very clear last time, but my thoughts on distinguishing landing spots for McNabb and Vick is simple. I see three largely distinct groups of teams looking for quarterbacks this offseason. There’s the group who should be interested in McNabb: contenders who just need a good QB to put them over the top (e.g. MIN, ARI, SF). There’s the group who should be looking to the draft: teams rebuilding long term (e.g. STL, CLE, SEA). And then, somewhere in between, there’s the Vick group: those that don’t have the time or don’t want to fully rebuild, and are in some way desperate for attention (e.g. BUF, JAC, OAK).

This is definitely reductionist. For example, St. Louis might decide, as has been recently rumored, that Vick is a good bet for their franchise. Or Buffalo might want to go get McNabb instead. These are basic categories for who most likely will be interested — and you can definitely disagree with me.

But while we’re here, let’s define the Vick category a little better:

1. Not Blowing Up and Rebuilding: I would be shocked if someone like Pete Carroll traded for Vick. He has the luxury of a few years to rebuild his team the way he wants — and can therefore take the time to develop his own QB. Whatever team takes Vick has to be looking to win now.
2. Not a Contender Either: Arizona will not be risking their Super Bowl chances on the play of a quarterback who hasn’t played in two years. Unlike McNabb, Vick isn’t the last piece in the puzzle (and he may never have been).
3. Franchise Uncertainty: Trading for Vick is inherently risky. The cost might not be very high for him, but he hasn’t started an NFL game in two years. Are you willing to risk your job on his performance? To some degree, the front office and/or coach is going to have to feel pressured to make a bold move and have something happen right away. Any team with the time or confidence to rebuild slowly won’t be looking at Vick.
4. Desperation: This is what I think highlights the Vick-chasers most. Vick has maybe always been more hype than hero, and after two years away from the game that is definitely the case. Plus, he’s still a PR risk (although not as much as he was before the Eagles took the hit). He still can be an exciting addition to a team looking to return from obscurity — or just attract more fans.
5. Need a QB, and Maybe Don’t Want to “Try Again”: Kind of obvious, but this team can’t be set at quarterback. However, I think that they might be more likely contenders if they’ve already been burned once with a QB. San Francisco and Oakland fit that bill — both having tried and failed with #1 overall picks.

So that’s the basic outline we’re talking about. Desperate, attention-seeking, uncertain, middling teams. Who, per the rumors about Vick, fits this bill:

• Oakland Raiders: Oakland was rumored to be interested last year, but Vick (or Tony Dungy) supposedly turned them down. Vick is everything Al Davis loves — speedy, flashy, big arm. And having already been burned by JaMarcus Russell, trading for a starter makes more sense. Of course, little Oakland does “makes sense.” Then again, that may be a mark in their favor.
• Buffalo Bills: Could be interested in McNabb, but the team reeks of desperation to me. They’re trying to stay relevant while rumors swirl about a move away from upper NY (See: move for TO). New coach who probably won’t be around long enough to mentor a new QB could be interested in Vick.
• Jacksonville Jaguars: As I already talked about, the Jags could be an ideal spot for Vick. David Garrard hasn’t wowed anyone, and everyone knows that their biggest problem is attendance. They have to get a game-changer this offseason to reverse that trend — whether that’s Tim Tebow or Michael Vick.
• San Francisco 49ers: I still think they’re more likely McNabb suitors, but if Mike Singletary likes Vick and wants to work with him, don’t count this out.
• St. Louis Rams: Apparently there’s been interest, but I think Spags would be better suited continuing his long-term rebuilding plan.
• Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks: Other teams with new regimes and long-term strategies. See above.
• Carolina Panthers: Also mentioned them with McNabb, but this could be John Fox’s last year. If he doesn’t want to tie his future to Matt Moore, Vick could be an option.
• Miami Dolphins: I know some people suggest this. Not likely. Chad Henne is their guy. (This also goes for DET, TB, KC)
• Washington Redskins: If they weren’t in the NFC East, I’d say Daniel Snyder’s team would be in hot pursuit.

The takeaway: it’s tough to tell who’s really interested in Vick and who’d be willing to send a conditional pick for him. If the Eagles are forced to drop him before his bonus comes up then a lot of teams could be inquiring. Ultimately, though, I think the Jags take Tebow and either Buffalo or Oakland send something to the Eagles for Vick.

Thoughts?

Vick to the Jags? Could Sell Some Tickets

Jacksonville Jaguars Head Coach Jack Del Rio stuck his foot in his mouth big time yesterday when asked if his current QB is Super Bowl-caliber:

Well that’s a, uh, good question. I think I would say a quarterback like David Garrard can be that with a great supporting cast.  You know, I don’t know.  When you look at teams that have won multiple championships, I think they’ve had elite quarterbacks. Peyton Manning type guys, Joe Montana type guys.  The elite quarterback?  He’s not that.

Obviously Del Rio’s telling the brutal truth about Garrard — he’s not great. But you would think he’d be more diplomatic.

This is really just a convenient way to transition to rumors. Jacksonville, with its woeful attendance rate, is in the market for some kind of game changer — such as messiah Tim Tebow. But Donovan McNabb or Michael Vick could work just as well.

Donovan might be the better fit for a team that’s not terrible, but Vick just makes too much sense here. He’s quite simply the cheapest excitement you can buy in the NFL this offseason. Bring him to Jacksonville and media attention will be everywhere, enthusiasm will be everywhere.

I’ll break down further why Jacksonville is a likely destination for Vick in a new post soon detailing the team scenario which would cause a team to look at him.