Is The Eagles Defense One Competent Safety Away From Success?

Alright, no.

But as I was watching the Eagles-Giants game on Sunday, I was drawn to this question. The Eagles defense has problems across the board. The new corners can at least tackle better than their predecessors, but remain inconsistent in coverage. Even at their best, neither Cary Williams nor Bradley Fletcher scares an opposing quarterback. Meanwhile, the front seven is a transitioning mess. Sopoaga barely shows up, and two-gapping hides last year's stud Fletcher Cox. Connor Barwin has been solid, but Trent Cole is hit-or-miss at OLB. Mychal Kendricks makes terrifically athletic plays, then falls down in coverage. The responsibilities in the run game are unclear. The pass rush is nonexistent, which has led to the bizarre move of making Brandon Boykin a rush linebacker.

This is all granted. It's a bad defense with a lot of personnel and scheme questions. But unlike the offensive side of the ball, where a great quarterback or running back can carry a team at times, defense often seems to be about your weakest link. A smart, patient, accurate quarterback can find your weakness and exploit it. Such was evident against the Peytons, but I'm not sure how much there is to learn from a drubbing at their formidable hands.

The Elis posed a much less dangerous threat. The Giants offense only scored 7 points in the two previous games. Yet they put up three times that on Sunday. Why? Again, there are many problems with this defense. The front seven, most notably, failed to register a sack until the end of the game, against a banged-up Giants offensive line.

But looking at the tape and the numbers, I'd single out safety as by far the biggest problem. The Giants only had three scoring drives. The officials gifted them the last one on a bogus pass interference call on Brandon Boykin. On the other two, 80% of the Giants' total yards were gained on four plays of 20 yards or more. What all four plays had in common was the Eagles' safeties.

On the Giants' first drive, Hakeem Nicks caught a 49-yard bomb from Manning, the second attempt in a row to split Nate Allen and Bradley Fletcher. Two plays later, David Wilson plunged into the end zone.

The second scoring drive, in the third quarter, started with a 26-yard pass to Brandon Myers where the tight end found a huge hole down the middle between Allen and Earl Wolff. Two plays later, Manning found a wide open Reuben Randle for 20 yards. Looked like Wolff should have been covering that zone, but ran with Myers over the middle instead.

Finally, the drive culminated in a disgustingly easy 24-yard TD pass to Randle. We don't have All-22 yet, but let's break that one down anyway. The Giants have three WRs, one TE, and one RB. The Eagles are going to play what looks like (again, pre-coaches tape) a variant of Cover One Robber. The defense is in man-to-man across the formation. At the snap, Allen (in blue) is going to drop into a centerfield role while Wolff rolls into the short middle. The rookie's job in Robber coverage is to help in run support if necessary, then read the QB's eyes and jump into those short and intermediate crossing routes.

Below, you can see what happens after the snap. Kendricks has blitzed, and DeMeco Ryans is looping around him (and possibly reading the running back). That leaves Wolff as the sole middle-of-the-field defender. At the top, Randle is going to run a slant against Fletcher.

Below, Manning has stared down Randle, but as he throws, Wolff hasn't moved much. Meanwhile, Fletcher is dropping further back guarding against getting beat deep in man. This leaves a big hole in the zone where Wolff ideally should be:

As Randle catches the ball below, the defense has failed. He's about to pick up a first down because neither Fletcher, who dropped way back, nor Wolff were there to stop an easy slant. Still, with three guys converging -- including Allen from his deep role -- at least it should stop there...

Except wait, no, that's not what happens. You can see below that Wolff was not only late, but he took a terrible angle at Randle and didn't even lay a finger on him. Ditto for Allen, who does this all the time. Randle scampers in for the easy touchdown.

It's worth pointing out that Boykin (bottom) is basically standing still in the last screenshot. If you re-watch the play you'll see that he slows down, seeing what we did, that the Eagles have three defenders set to shut Randle down. As the receiver breaks free instead, Boykin has an "Oh $&!#" moment, where he briefly tries to recover and help out. But it's too late.

So overall, what do we learn? The Eagles defense has a lot of problems, but the biggest mistakes all came from the two safeties. I'd venture that without those, the Eagles might have held the Giants to only 7 or 10 points. That's why I wonder how much better this defense would be with just one competent safety. Getting Patrick Chung healthy again will certainly help some, but I'm already looking ahead to the 2014 free agent class. Jairus Byrd? Donte (W)Hitner? An above-average player at that position would do wonders for this team.

Yes, Michael Vick can be ELIte

Les Bowen:

That last part was the most important; it was what separated the Giants from, say, the 49ers. Eli was sacked 11 times in the playoffs - more than any other quarterback. He still completed 65 percent of his passes, threw for nine touchdowns and was intercepted exactly once. His QB rating was 103.3. He averaged 304.8 passing yards per game.

Good luck copying that “blueprint,” NFL GMs. And Eagles fans, do you really see Michael Vick throwing for nine touchdowns and one interception?

To be fair, Vick had 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions through his first eight games last season. So yes, I have seen it happen. Not only that, but just a year ago Eli Manning threw for a league-leading 25 interceptions.

Vick has an important offseason ahead of him, but there’s no reason to think he can’t rebound from 2011.

By the Numbers: Unsatisfying Victory

Eli Manning Eagles Sack

I’ve never been less enthused about an Eagles win in the Meadowlands. Hope that doesn’t harsh your mellow, but this terrible season and the race-to-the-bottom game last night didn’t really cheer me up.

Let’s look at the numbers:

0 = Giants red zone opportunities. How do you solve a massive red zone defense problem? Don’t let the Giants inside the 20!

3 = Interceptions by Vince Young. The Eagles backup was alternatively efficient and mistake-prone. He helped convert more than half of the Eagles third down opportunities and threw for two touchdowns in a game where the Giants largely contained LeSean McCoy. When Young is on his game, you wonder why he isn’t an All-Pro. But those turnovers, yikes.

12 = Passes targeted at Riley Cooper. Sunday night was our first extended look at Cooper and Young looked to him early and often. DeSean Jackson had a rebound day, but after him, Cooper was clearly Young’s favorite target. The largest wideout the Eagles have by far, Cooper could fill a fade-catching niche for the offense. But I’m not convinced after one game. It would be nice to see him get more snaps as the season conintues so we can evaluate his receiving skills going forward.

128 = Receiving yards by Victor Cruz. I hoped that Nnamdi Asomugha would redeem himself against the Giants and Cruz, showing that his early season troubles were mostly the result of learning a new system and trying to fit into Juan Castillo’s questionable coverages. Then we all saw that touchdown catch by Cruz, where Asomugha completely lost him in the end zone. $60 million? Not even close to worth it right now.

10 = Official quarterback hits on Eli Manning. The Eagles defensive line looked energized after a few down weeks. The Giants have one of the worst run blocking lines in the NFL, so it was good to see Jim Washburn’s group shut that down. But the pressure on Manning was a nice bonus.

50 = Receiving yards left on the table by DeSean Jackson due to a taunting penalty. I don’t really know where to start with Jackson. The taunting penalty seemed unfair considering its dead-ball-foul nature, but ultimately it’s DeSean’s responsibility. And after he missed last week’s game, you’d think he’d play with some maturity and humility. I guess not. At this point I am increasingly sure that he won’t be in Philadelphia next season.

Photo from Getty.

Compliments of the Eagles, Take One

For when setting people on fire is funny. See y’all in the press box.

Week Three
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 pm ET on FOX

Reasons to Worry About the Eagles-Giants Game

Eli Manning Eagles Giants 2010

Last week I told you why the Falcons weren’t a team to worry about. Of course, they ended up beating the Eagles. Now I’m going to tell you that this week’s opponent, the Giants, are a surprisingly worrisome matchup. Given my track record, the Eagles will probably end up blowing out the Giants. But let me air my concerns anyway.

On the whole, the Giants defense is an injury-riddled unit. But those pass rushers still look formidable. I have no desire to see Justin Tuck bearing down either on injured Michael Vick or first-time starter Mike Kafka. If the Eagles quarterback - whoever it is - can get time to throw, the Giants secondary is eminently beatable. But will they have that time? So far Howard Mudd’s offensive line has exceeded my expectations. Let’s see if they can keep it up this weekend.

I also worry, as usual, about the Eagles run defense matched up against a team that enjoys playing power football. Looking at the Adjusted Line Yard stats for the Eagles defensive line is instructive. The attacking defensive line is definitely disrupting running backs, as the Eagles have the second best “power success” rate and fifth best “stuffed” rank. But once the play gets to the linebackers, yikes. The Eagles are ranked 29th in “second level” rush yards (5-10 yards from scrimmage) and 31st in the “open field” (10+ yards). And don’t expect some big improvement  just because the Eagles are rearranging the deck chairs.

Finally, isn’t odd that people don’t seem concerned about Vick missing this game? Perhaps fans are more sure that Vick will return from his concussion than I am, but I don’t know what that’s based on. As of Thursday morning he hadn’t passed his concussion tests. Is everybody sure that Kafka can win the game on Sunday? He looked like he belonged last week, and might have been a Jeremy Maclin drop away from winning the game. Not to mention, his performance was better than other, more highly touted quarterbacks coming off the Eagles bench in the past. But will he be able to step up for a full game? That’s still very much up in the air.

The most lopsided matchup in the whole game will be Eli Manning against the Eagles pass rushers and cornerbacks. Luckily for the Eagles, Manning doesn’t have a Hall of Fame tight end to rely on either. So there’s a good chance they will sack and pick off Eli enough to obviate any other issues.

But if that’s not enough, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Photo from Getty.

Hot Read: Egotism, Attitude, and a Safety Puzzle

There’s no easier character for the sports media to portray than the athlete megalomaniac. Perhaps it’s the public’s fault. We demand that our stars be humble and empower our media representatives to take them down a notch when necessary.

There’s no other way to explain the overblown reactions to stories like this and this. Fans love to hate, and the media is happy to oblige in blowing small quotes up into page view-chasing controversies.

Of course, what makes two overconfident remarks from quarterbacks proof of their egotism, and another quotation only a positive example of appropriate confidence is beyond me.

* * *

Relatedly, is it such a bad thing if this year’s Eagles team has an “us against the world” mentality?

Spygate didn’t work out so poorly for the loaded Patriots in 2008. Maybe channeling some anger and isolation back at the rest of the NFL is a good attitude to take. Everyone is going to be gunning for the Eagles anyway.

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Safety is a really interesting spot these days for the Eagles defense. 

Nate Allen is supposed to be the unquestioned starter out there, but his knee isn’t 100 percent, so now he’s sharing snaps. Kurt Coleman has taken over as one of the more consistent and trusted youngsters on the defense, despite the team drafting his replacement. That rookie, Jaiquawn Jarrett, hasn’t shown the ability to contribute much right away. Meanwhile, Patriots castoff and cheap free agent pick up Jarrad Page is getting some first team reps. All while the fifth guy on the depth chart, Colt Anderson, was called out recently by Bobby April for his star special teams contributions.

Last year the Eagles started the season with only three safeties. Not sure what the answer is to that puzzle in 2011.

Hot Read: the Beast, Burress, and Cheap Owners

There’s a new blog in town. Friend of the blog Jimmy Kempski (known as JimmyK at Bleeding Green Nation), kicked off his new site “Blogging the Beast” yesterday and it looks great — he’s covering the NFC East better than ESPN.

Jimmy already has some nice posts up, including a breakdown of this Plaxico Burress nonsense, which I completely agree with. The original report on the New York Post doesn’t convince me of any sort of accuracy. There isn’t even an anonymous source quoted, just a reporter shooting the breeze: “I’ve heard that the Eagles will eventually be first in line.”

Taking on a talented but reformed criminal doesn’t strike me as out of the question for the Michael Vick-era Eagles. Burress has made Eli Manning look great so many times that I’m interested to see if the guy has anything left.

But we should also remember that it takes two to tango. Even if the Eagles are interested, they aren’t going to be the most desperate for help. Burress would have to take less money and know that he won’t have an immediate chance to start in Philly — something Vick was willing to do to rehabilitate his image. I’m not sure Plaxico, at age 34, has the time or patience to take that same route.

* * *

Good for Jeffrey Lurie and the Eagles for not cutting their coaches’ salaries immediately after the lockout started. I wonder how much money the rest of the owners are saving with this cheap move over these summer months, and how much less the coaches are really working.

This probably also hints at the catastrophe that could strike the all the coaches and other support staff if this lockout extends into the regular season. We’ll certainly see a lot of layoffs in that case.