Together At The Close

On Sunday, Andy Reid will go out and coach his last game with the Eagles. His 243rd game as head coach in Philadelphia, 14 seasons of ups and downs. And I'm so glad that Michael Vick will be quarterbacking that final game.

I know it doesn't really matter. Getting another chance to see Nick Foles is probably a better use of our time. But Vick's story will always be so closely tied to Reid for me. Sure, Donovan McNabb was the long-running franchise icon who Reid groomed and partnered with for the best years. And Kevin Kolb was supposed to be second in line after that. But Vick disrupted that natural progression — leading to one of the highest points in Reid's tenure and, ironically, his lowest.

If there was one thing you could say about Reid (beside fat jokes and run-pass ratio gripes), it was that the coach was a quarterback whisperer. McNabb and Kolb both crumpled after they departed Philly. Guys like AJ Feeley and Jeff Garcia had no business being successful, but Reid made them so. Yet nothing cemented Reid's reputation more than salvaging Vick's career.

Truthfully, I think even Reid believed Vick was beyond saving. He did provide refuge after Vick spent two years in jail. But it always seemed like an investment more than a true rebuilding project. With the backing of Tony Dungy and Roger Goodell, Reid saw a beaten down player with immense talent who he could buy cheaply and sell later on, while being a fun toy to play with in the meantime. He never intended to start Vick. The 2010 offseason was filled with nearly as many Vick trade rumors as there were for McNabb.

If not for a twist of fate (or Kolb's neck), Vick never would have started in Philadelphia. But not only did he start, he experienced a resurrection. Vick was always a dynamic fan-favorite, but suddenly he was commanding one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. The player  who had never been a complete player was running, passing, and executing Reid's offense better than McNabb ever did. That 2010 team didn't win a playoff game, but there were eternal memories nonetheless. Remember the opening play bomb to DeSean Jackson that kicked off a 59-point score against the Redskins? Remember the Miracle at the New Meadowlands? 

Although we didn't know it at the time, these victories were the last hurrah for both Reid and Vick in Philadelphia. The last two years devolved as both Reid and Vick fell from their lofty 2010 peak. What had seemed to be the master stroke of Reid's career turned out to be a fleeting mirage of success. He made terrible coaching and personnel decisions. Vick couldn't replicate the efficiency he had demonstrated for the first time at age 30.

With the end of their careers in Philly inexorably entwined, it is fitting that Vick and Reid should go out together. And while I still hope for the best draft pick losing can buy, it will be hard for me not to root for them on the way out. 

Photo from Getty.

Bye McNabb and Kolb, Hello Defense

Sheil Kapadia has the breakdown of the complete haul the Eagles received for our revered blog namesakes:

McNabb and Kolb = Nate Allen, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Casey Matthews, Vinny Curry, Brandon Boykin, and DeMeco Ryans

Remains to be seen how all of these players will turn out but on the surface: not too shabby.

Kudos to Dan Snyder

There was a lot more hand-wringing and bad-mouthing than I expected regarding Washington’s big trade to jump up to the second pick in the draft. And yes, absolutely the cost for Robert Griffin III was high. The risk may be even higher. But even so, the Redskins front office deserves high marks for executing this dramatic move.

One of the paramount truths of today’s NFL is that your franchise is irrelevant unless it has an elite quarterback. I don’t mean that you absolutely can’t win. Teams can go far in the playoffs or even win a Super Bowl with some luck, timing, and roster dominance in other areas (See: 2011 Broncos, 2000 Ravens). I mean that you are unable to sustain or count on success.

Teams that don’t have a franchise QB grasp at straws year after year. They do what the Redskins have done. They throw second-tier, underprepared youngsters into the role and hope they succeed. They cycle through overpriced veterans past their prime and flawed journeyman. It’s the most pathetic of struggles, as the front office just tries to keep their team above water.

Since Dan Snyder bought that team in 1999, they have had seven different single-season passing leaders. It’s been a murderer’s row of Brad Johnson, Tony Banks, Patrick Ramsey, Mark Brunell, Jason Campbell, old Donovan McNabb, and Rex Grossman. Yuck.

Andy Reid is not a perfect coach, but he understands this better than anyone. He didn’t hesitate to draft Donovan McNabb, and reared him into a top quarterback. When Reid saw the end of McNabb’s career, he snared Kevin Kolb to carry the torch. And now he’s settled on Michael Vick for at least the next couple of years. All three of those quarterbacks, even Kolb, would have been upgrades over the slop the Redskins have tolerated over the last decade. Reid never would have let himself go that long without a real franchise quarterback.

Regardless of how it turns out, the Redskins should be applauded for finally grasping that half measures aren’t enough. Another couples of years stumbling along with more free agent castoffs or another mediocre prospect would have gotten that front office fired anyway. At some point, you might as well try something that could actually work.

Photo from Getty.

RG3 to Philly? It's Pretty Crazy

Heisman-winning quarterback and draft analyst man-crush Robert Griffin III met with the Eagles at the NFL Combine late last week, sparking a mini-resurgence of speculation (read: hope) that by some twist of fate RG3 could be coming to Philadelphia.

Jimmy Kempsi wrote, “it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see the Eagles make some sort of blockbuster trade to move up to 2 to get him.” He goes on to make some good points: Michael Vick will turn 32 before the season starts, his contract isn’t really for the full six years, and the cost of paying a first round quarterback isn’t prohibitive any more. Despite those reasons, there are still major barriers to bringing Griffin to the Eagles.

Let’s start with the fact that the Eagles are completely outgunned in trade negotiations. All indications are that the Rams are looking to sell out of the second overall selection. Do you know what it would take for the Eagles to even get into the conversation for that pick? According to the draft value chart, giving up the Eagles 2012 1st, two 2nd, 3rd, and 2013 1st round picks still leaves the team coming up slightly short.

For comparison, let’s take two of the teams cited most often in trade rumors: the Browns and the Redskins. Cleveland has the 4th and 22nd overall picks. Just those two selections are already worth more than the massive Eagles bounty described above. Former Eagles GM Tom Heckert definitely has the inside track on Griffin. Washington, meanwhile, could match Philly’s offer with just their 1st and 2nd round picks this year and 1st rounder next year.

You can draw comparisons with Vick today and Donovan McNabb in 2007, the year the Eagles drafted Kevin Kolb, but the cost is so much more prohibitive for Griffin. Using an early second round pick when you already have a starting quarterback is questionable, forfeiting almost your entire draft is prohibitive.

And that brings up the second major reason to shoot down any Griffin ideas: the opportunity cost is far too high. Giving up that many high picks would mean ignoring needs at a bunch of positions, including linebacker, defensive line, cornerback, and wide receiver. Given the general lack of young talent, especially on defense, the Eagles cannot afford to waste the opportunity to finally get a good, full draft.

Drafting Griffin, despite these concerns, would be writing the next year or two off. The Eagles front office would be admitting to the fans and — more importantly — a veteran group of players that they can’t win in 2012. They would be telling Michael Vick, who everyone hopes will work to improve himself this offseason, that he’s not really their franchise player. That could be a disaster.

What it comes down to is that the timing is off. Tommy Lawlor called the situation “awkward,” but it’s more than that. 2012 is shaping up to be a make-or-break year for more than just Andy Reid. Vick needs to get back to his 2010 form. DeSean Jackson, if he even accepts the franchise tag, could be gone after 2012. Veterans like Cullen Jenkins, Nnamdi Asomugha, Jason Babin, and Trent Cole may only have a year or two of high-level play left, and poor drafting has left the cupboard bare behind them.

Next year should answer a lot of questions about this team and the way it’s constructed. The Eagles could rebound and make a playoff run, in which case you will want a strong crop of young players in place to fill in the holes and keep up the momentum. Alternatively, if the Eagles flop there will be a NovaCare house cleaning like we haven’t seen since 1999. In that case, the team will be in a natural position to draft a new franchise quarterback and rebuild around him going forward.

Watching RG3 highlights is intoxicating, and I would love it if he ended up with the Eagles. But it’s not going to happen. Let’s just make that clear.

Photo from Getty.

Trot & T.O.

Les Bowen at his best:

Trot was a leader in the locker room, and the unquestioned leader of the forces trying to get Owens restored to the active roster. He didn’t defend the things T.O. had done, but he seemed to think McNabb ought to just ignore the persistent undermining of his authority and leadership, because, hey, T.O. was a dominant player — probably THE most dominant player physically I’ve ever covered, in any sport — and the Eagles needed him to get back to the Super Bowl.

Football is a team game, though, the Daily News has learned, and you really don’t win the Super Bowl with a superstar wideout trying to tear down your quarterback. Reid later told me one of his biggest regrets was that he let that situation fester too long, tolerated too much. I eventually concluded McNabb was never viewed quite the same way again by his teammates.

Today, I think maybe Trot finally understands what the big deal was, why you don’t clasp a viper to your bosom, or whatever that passage in the bible says.

The whole post is definitely worth reading.

By the Numbers: A Win!

Jason Babin, after the game:

“I don’t know how many times we stopped them, but it was almost unfathomable. I wouldn’t have even guessed we could stop them that much.”

I think I speak for all Eagles fans when I say, yes, that is “almost unfathomable.”

10 = Stops by the Eagles on downs of two yards or fewer. Very unexpected, although if you go through them individually as the above linked article does, you’ll see not a single linebacker’s name among the list of defensive players who came up big in short yardage.

9 = Sacks by the Eagles, including 3 each by Trent Cole and Jason Babin. Note that no one is talking about how bad the wide nine formation is today.

1.4 = LeSean McCoy’s yards per carry. McCoy finally got a ton of carries, but he was largely stuffed. Undoubtedly this will be used as proof that running the ball doesn’t work, and Marty Mornhinweg will call 50 passes next week against the Jets.

12 = Interceptions for Michael Vick in 10 games. In 2010, Vick had a 1.6 percent interception rate — better than Donovan McNabb’s career rate. This year that’s up to 3.6 percent, which is just barely off the Hall of Fame-type pace set by Mike McMahon in 2005.

57 = Yards from scrimmage by the Eagles in the second half. That’s in 7 possessions, with 6 punts and 1 interception. Good thing they got out to such a big lead in the first half.

1 = Win. If you look at the box score, it’s hard to understand how the Eagles won. Their leading rusher went for 38 yards, their leading receiver for 59, and their quarterback completed only half his passes. Still, getting a victory has been nigh impossible for this team at various points in the season, so it’s hard to be too negative. Plus, playoff possibilities!

Photo from Getty.

McNabb-Baiting

Bob Ford, for the Inquirer:

All that said, and all that considered, here’s one for you: If the Philadelphia Eagles actually believe the final four games of this season might mean something, they should release Vince Young immediately and sign McNabb. (I know, I know. I am aware there is a large percentage of you who must now blindly search the floor for your heads, because they have popped off your necks and rolled away. And, yes, there is a part of me that wrote the sentence just to have that happen. But let’s wait and see where the column goes. I have no idea, either.)

It’s nice when columnists admit they’re going off the rails.

The Sad Decline of Donovan McNabb

It’s been awhile since I’ve talked about Donovan McNabb.

Take a gander at the chart below. It’s an updated variant on the graphs I put together back before McNabb was traded to the Redskins.

Yuck. The last two years have not been kind to McNabb. Both in Washington last year and with the Vikings this year, he’s scored solidly at the bottom of NFL quarterbacks.

You can read the graph two different ways, although neither are positive for Donovan.

First, you can just plot a steady decline in performance since 2006. In that season he put up numbers akin to the Super Bowl year. Afterward, even through Brian Westbrook’s masterful season of 2007 and the emergence of the young guns in 2008 and 2009, McNabb could never again match those peak years.

Before he was traded there were warning signs of his decline. 2009 saw his lowest DVOA performance since 2002 and his lowest EPA since 2005. Perhaps that trend would have continued in Philadelphia.

The second understanding of the graph comes instead from the sharp dropoff in 2010. From 2007-2009 McNabb largely hovered just above average, as the 10th- to 15th-best quarterback in the league. As soon as he started in Washington, however, he plummeted to 25th-best. Every notable stat fell.

There is no doubt that the difference is large between the Eagles offense and those in Washington and Minnesota. That’s a potential excuse for McNabb, if you’re looking for one. If he came back and started with the Eagles his numbers would probably look better. But the fact that he couldn’t elevate those teams and perform at least close to he did in Philadelphia doesn’t lend to any argument in his favor. Maybe Andy Reid was propping him up.

Or maybe it’s just age catching up to McNabb. 35 is old for an NFL player. This year only Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, and Kerry Collins are seeing significant playing time among quarterbacks over age 32. Since he came into the league, McNabb has gained about 20 lbs and has lost his trademark speed.

No matter the reason, it’s sad to watch.

Photo from Getty.