Chip Kelly Is Already Two Steps Ahead Of NFL Defenses

In his Sunday training camp rundown, Sheil Kapadia mentioned one play the Eagles ran that caught my eye:

The Eagles run what initially seems like a read-option play, but instead of taking off, Vick unleashes a pass to McCoy, who is out wide.

It's just one small play in a whole day of practice, but the implications are much greater—it shows that Chip Kelly is a couple steps ahead of the NFL defenses he's facing. Opposing coaches have been studying up on the zone read, trying to get a handle on stopping it before it expands even more widely this season. Last week, Chris Brown wrote a fantastic piece on that quest, as did Greg Bedard—who had Stanford's Derek Mason take him through the learning process NFL coordinators are facing.

If you read those articles, you'll understand the difficulty inherent in facing an offense capable of running the read option. You'll also see suggestions that NFL defenses can catch up if they adopt the "scrape-exchange" and other policies that expert college teams have worked on. But while coaches are trying to teach their defenders how to fight back, Kelly is bringing in a host of new ideas from the college level, most notably turning the "regular" zone read we've already seen from Robert Griffin III and Colin Kaepernick into a triple option attack.

Brown wrote about these variations back in 2009. He described how the triple option off the zone read is easy to do with a third runner in the backfield, but also how bubble screens and other pass options can be even more deadly and unpredictable way to keep the defense honest. Here's Fishduck on Kelly's use of the bubble screen: 

Most of what Fishduck talks about in the related article is using the bubble screen as a constraint play to keep the defense honest. Many times, the read is taking place before the snap, and the zone read is little more than a play-action pass. But other times, as in 1:40 in the video, the quarterback is reading two defenders. After pulling the ball based on the defensive end crashing down, he sees the outside linebacker coming at him too. Instead of taking a loss, the quarterback has a third option to throw a quick bubble pass.

Kelly actually talks about that exact play in this video (at 2:15) with Urban Meyer:

The key, as you learn from Fishduck above, is that a third pass option added to the zone read makes it that much harder to defend. The defense can't load defenders into the box without the quarterback making an easy switch to the outside pass (without even needing to audible). Moreover, even if they execute the scrape-exchange properly and get a defender on the quarterback keeper, he still has an option to throw. 

Nothing about this is fool-proof, and a sound defense can slow down the triple option threat (or keep it to dink-and-dunk down the field). But NFL teams still trying to catch up to last year's version of the zone read are going to be falling down if they don't adjust to what Kelly is adding on to it.

Also: Buy the Eagles Almanac 2013 if you haven't already! 

Chip Stew: What Kelly Needs In The NFL

The latest edition of Chip Stew brings a discussion of the spread offense in the NFL, from ESPN's Ivan Maisel:

"It would take an organizational commitment," [Stanford Coach David] Shaw said. "Everybody from top to bottom, the GM, the owner, the personnel people, need to be on a mission to give that offense what it needs. You can't waver from it. Everybody needs to be on the same page. It can't be, 'Well, let's bring this receiver in.' If he doesn't fit their offense, they can't bring him in. It's so different than [what] most people are used to."

Between free agency and the upcoming draft, this is an important point to keep in mind. The question isn't always "Who is best?" as much as "Who fits best?"

Chip Stew: Why Kelly Will Win Super Bowls In Philadelphia

Oregon blogger Charles Fisher seems as excited to watch Chip Kelly with the Eagles as he was watching his beloved Ducks:

The fans of Philadelphia have no idea what they are about to witness. The greatest sports experience of their lives is about to unfold over the next four years, and they will be delighted with the winning, but confounded by the methods. Football is not supposed to be coached this way, most will declare, but the NFL will be unalterably changed and Eagle fans will be in the eye of one of the greatest transformations the sport has seen. The more discerning football fans of this city will be entertained by more than touchdowns; they will also find themselves caught up in the intellectual fascination of the strategies implemented and the genius of a very special coach named Charles “Chip” Kelly. As he leaves Oregon and comes to Pennsylvania, I wish to offer as a parting gift a glimpse into why he will win Super Bowls at Philadelphia and give you the most total, overall thrills you can imagine from watching a football team.

Like you're not going to read the rest of an article that starts that way.

Chip Stew: Not Everyone's Cup of Tea

One of the nice things about the coaching change is to see a different personality lead the team. While we're largely interested in the play on the field, we also form opinions about the coach based on his interactions with the public and the media. After 14 years, everyone in Philly could quote Andy Reid's favorite press conference lines. Chip Kelly's sarcasm and deadpan humor is a great change. Others, like Marcus Hayes, already take offense to Kelly's obfuscation. All I have to say to that is get used to it. In a long article from December, John Locanthi recounted Kelly's refusal to cater to the outside interests of boosters or journalists:

And the media? Kelly treats the press like a malignant tumor. He is only available for interviews after practice and after games. He is available to the media whenever he is contractually obligated. But his appearances in these situations are often curt, crisp and threaded with the irritation of a man who views this part of the job as utterly trifling.

“If you approached Bellotti with a frivolous question, he would still go out of his way to try to give you something to work with,” says Rob Moseley, who covers Oregon football for The Register-Guard of Eugene. “Chip will not.”

As a member of the media, I suppose I should care about this, but I don't. Bill Belichick often lies about injuries and refuses to say anything useful to the press, but who cares? All that matters is the win-loss record. Sorry, beat guys.

Chip Stew: The Future of the NFL is More Up-Tempo No-huddle

There are plenty of questions about which pieces of Chip Kelly's offense can be imported from the college game to the NFL. But one thing everyone seems to agree on is that the no-huddle offense is here to stay, and that has been a major part of Kelly's success at Oregon. Here's Chris Brown at Smart Football:

It’s only a slight exaggeration to say that huddling is an archaism destined for the dustbin. I say it’s a slight exaggeration because there is a value to huddling, primarily when you have a great leader at quarterback as a huddle is an opportunity for him to show his leadership skills. But otherwise, it’s inherently inferior to going no-huddle. It’s slower, which is a problem both in games but also in practice where your offense gets fewer reps, and, maybe most importantly, the safety net of a huddle leads coaches to transform plays that can be communicated in just one or two words into multi-syllabic monstrosities. That’s the sad secret of those long NFL playcalls: They convey no more information than can be conveyed with one or two words or with a combination of hand-signals.

Chip Stew: As Likely to be the Next Great Coach as Anyone Else

Back in November, when Chip Kelly-to-the-NFL talk was only rumor, Chase Stuart disputed the notion that Kelly was likely to be the next Steve Spurrier. I know most Eagles fans have moved past this line of argument, but the broader context Stuart brings to the disucssion is still worthwhile:

But the bigger question isn’t ‘whether or not Kelly will fail’ because ultimately most coaches do. Rex Ryan was the toast of the town two years ago, reaching the AFC Championship Game in each of his first two seasons, and now seems on his way out the door. Tom Coughlin may be the single best coach in professional football, and Giants fans have wanted him fired for long stretches of his career. After awhile, every coach becomes a failure. Andy Reid is learning that lesson quite painfully in 2012...

Few elements of football are more art than science than the hiring of a head coach. The options always come with bright red flags. College coaches aren’t even in the same league as NFL coaches, young coordinators have never shown the ability to lead, and retreads have already proven that they can fail. The skills needed to make a person a great position coach or a great coordinator often have little overlap with what is needed of a head coach. And while it’s true that the skills needed to make a great college coach a great NFL coach are different as well, criticism of Kelly as ‘just a college coach’ is short-sighted. You can’t pluck the next Bill Walsh off of Craigslist. Kelly is smart, creative, and a proven winner. He can bring a level of clarity to an otherwise dysfunctional organization. To me, he’s the most attractive option out there for the half-dozen or so teams that will need a new coach in 2013.

Chip Stew: Changing the Way the NFL Thinks About Going for Two

For the latest entry in our Chip Stew series, let's look at the coach's aggressive approach to the game. Not only does he routinely go for it on fourth down (a move that's heavily backed by statistics), but Kelly also tries for two point-conversions far more than other coaches. Here's Michael David Smith:

In five of Oregon’s 13 games last season, the Ducks tried for a two-point conversion after scoring their first touchdown. Three of those five two-point tries were successful, and two were unsuccessful. When the Ducks didn’t go for two, they often sent out their field goal/PAT unit and had them line up in a trick-play formation, shifting into the standard kick formation only after seeing if the defense appeared ready to stop the play they planned to run.

Kelly’s approach to two-point conversions — trying them after taking a 6-0 lead, rather than only trying them late in the game when the “chart” says they should — is unheard of in the NFL. According to Aaron Schatz of FootballOutsiders.com, the last time a team tried for a two-point conversion in the first quarter (other than on bad snaps or fumbled holds when the team initially planned to kick the extra point) was in 1998. And even that play was done in an attempt to chase points by a team that had just scored a touchdown to narrow the deficit from 14-6 to 14-12 and wanted to tie the game with a two-point conversion.

The math behind attempting a two-point conversation is more questionable than going for it on fourth down. Brian Burke analyzed it a couple years ago. His numbers showed a potential advantage, especially if you run the ball (or execute a quarterback run), but it's not clear cut. Kelly seems to have confidence it can work, at least in college. I can't wait to see if he will bring that attitude to the NFL.

Chip Stew: For the Spread Generation Shall Inherit the Earth

For our second edition of Chip Stew, let's talk quarterback. Matt Hinton over at CBS Sports isn't discussing Chip Kelly per se, but about the new wave of quarterbacks coming up through the ranks who can both run and pass effectively:

Consider that before 2001, no player in Division I history had ever rushed for 1,000 yards in a season while also passing for 2,000 yards. Up to that point, the few quarterbacks who did manage to crack 1,000 on the ground were almost exclusively glorified tailbacks in triple-option schemes that rarely asked them to put the ball in the air. (Even the 1,000/1,000 milestone was unprecedented until 1981, the height of the option era.) Over the subsequent 11 years, from 2001 to 2011, a dozen different players broke the 2,000/1,000 barrier, all of them in spread offenses, some of them more than once. By the end of last year, the barrier had ceased to exist: The 2,000/1,000 Club added five new members in 2012 alone, all five of whom will be back this fall as part of the most versatile quarterback class the sport has ever produced. At least, so far.

Disappointingly, few of the quarterbacks in the 2013 draft class look like they fit the new mold perfectly. Kelly might not get a great young dual threat candidate this year, but going forward there will be more and more opportunities to do so.