How Chip Kelly Uses The Run To Post Near-Record 3rd Down Efficiency

Here's a stat you probably didn't know: this year's Eagles offense is on pace to register one of the smallest three-and-out percentages in recent history. Through six games, Football Outsiders clocks the Eagles as having three-and-outs on only 10.8% of all drives. If they can keep that pace up, it would tie them for second-best among all teams over the last 16 years (the entire period FO has accounted for this stat).

There are a number of things that help Chip Kelly's offense avoid the dreaded three-and-out. Part is just being tremendously efficient across the board. The historical team the Eagles are tied with right now is the 2001 St. Louis Rams, an offensive juggernaut that rode to a 14-2 record and Super Bowl appearance. Like those Rams, the 2013 Eagles rank second overall in offensive DVOA, with both passing and rushing offenses in the top 5. When you register a full 1.2 yards more per play than the average NFL offense, you're going to have fewer dead drives.

But that's not all. The number two ranked team in three-and-out percentage is the Carolina Panthers, and their offense is middling. There's another key to Kelly's success in this area, and it's relatively simple: he runs the ball more on third down and short.

On third down with 1 or 2 yards to go, NFL teams run just slightly more than they pass this year: 52%. This is odd, because running is significantly more effective. 66% of all runs from this distance convert a first down, while only 51% of passes do. Such odds would be even more favorable for the Eagles offense. The offensive line has looked good so far (although only 3.81 adjusted line yards), but more importantly LeSean McCoy is a beast. Kelly clearly knows this. He has called run plays in those situations 84% of the time, far more than any other team -- and has an 81% success rate to show for them.

The tendency extends to third downs from 3 to 5 yards out as well. For most NFL offenses, this is a straight passing down. A quarter of teams have yet to call a run in this situation, and the overall rush rate is a measly 10%. This seems to be a rational decision for most teams. At this run-pass ratio, the success rate for both has hit an equilibrium of about 47%.

Kelly, however, has called runs on 35% of these plays. That percentage is exceeded by only one other team: the Panthers, who we mentioned above. Both teams have succeeded with this strategy. The Panthers, with Cam Newton and a couple of successful backs, have been successful on 60% of their runs. The Eagles have converted a first down on over 70% of such plays.

This isn't new territory. Brian Burke wrote about how NFL teams should run more on third and short back in 2008:

On 3rd and 1, offenses scored an average of 2.38 points if they ran, and an average of 2.24 points if they passed. The difference of 0.14 points is remarkably close to the 0.12-point theoretical estimate calculated above.

The differences are even bigger for 3rd and 2 and 3rd and 3 situations. The advantage of running is 0.45 and 0.31 expected points respectively—convincing evidence that offenses should be running more often on 3rd and short.

With the numbers -- and an elite back -- to support him, Kelly's play calling has been spot on. The Eagles have converted 74% of all third downs from 1-5 yards. That's the highest rate in the league, and is a key factor keeping their up tempo drives rolling.

Dan Connor, Another Band-Aid at Linebacker?

Geoff Mosher:

At least two sources close to the situation believe Connor, a native of the Delaware County suburb of Wallingford, Pa., is high on the Eagles’ wish list. But one source with direct knowledge of the Eagles’ offseason plans indicated that Connor isn’t their top choice and suggested that it’s less likely to happen, although he did acknowledge that Connor, 26, is someone the team has sought in the past.

All sources interviewed confirmed that the Eagles were interested enough in Connor last August to approach the Panthers about a trade, but Carolina’s uncertainty regarding the health of Pro Bowl middle linebacker Jon Beason made the Panthers reluctant to pull the trigger.

Dan Connor has been out of sight since he graduated from Penn State. In four years and only 17 starts in the NFL, Connor has one sack, one pass defensed, and one forced fumble. Not exactly stellar production. It’s actually more interesting that the Eagles were considering him to help out last season. (Well, that and the jumble of sources.)

(via Noah)

The Updated Odds on McNabb Destinations

Donovan McNabb Odds on Trade Destinations Rumors

A lot of quarterback moves in the NFL since free agency began. The Seahawks got themselves a new, if unproven, quarterback of the future. The Browns exchanged two mediocre quarterbacks for two more. In fact, 15 of the league’s 32 teams have made some sort of change at the position.

So with all that change, some have suggested that the market for McNabb is drying up. Maybe to a degree, but there are still a number of teams who still seem like they would be interested at the right price. It’s been awhile since we last examined the options. Let’s give them a quick look, in rough order of likelihood:

  • San Francisco 49ers — I still think the 49ers repesent the most likely destination for McNabb. They have the need, the means, and a demonstrated interest. With Kurt Warner’s retirement, San Fran is a good quarterback away from being the class of the NFC West. The defense is solid, the offense has talented playmakers from Gore to Crabtree to Davis. Last year, the Niners made a strong push for Warner — and despite their declarations of support for Alex Smith and commitment to David Carr as a back-up, McNabb would be a huge upgrade. Additionally, the team has two first round picks (13 and 17), which makes McNabb’s price tag feasible. Even McNabb would probably be happy there. The only big question I have is how their chaotic front office situation will affect their decision-making process.
  • Buffalo Bills — I can see where McNabb would be hesitant to go up to moribound Buffalo, but the Bills are one of the few teams actually broadcasting a need for quarterback. Coach Chan Gailey and company have been open to the idea of a trade, and the team has already been burned twice by mediocre draft picks.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars — Jack Del Rio has not been quiet about his disappointment with current starter David Garrard, and McNabb would be a big step up. He (or Michael Vick) would also boost attendance figures.
  • Carolina Panthers — While the team is outwardly fine with going into 2010 with Matt Moore as their starter, that still would be a large risk for a coach and front office on the hot seat. Also, Moore is the only quarterback with any experience on the roster. Trading for Vick as a back up and possible challenger might make more sense, but McNabb could immediately put them back into playoff contention. They don’t have a 1st round pick, which hurts their chances at McNabb, but also at getting a QB of the future.
  • Minnesota Vikings — Only jump back in to this discussion if Favre decides he’s not coming back, which seems like a longshot from here.
  • Cleveland Browns — They’ve got two veterans for back-up/keep-the-seat-warm duty while they groom a mid-round QB prospect who catches Mike Holmgren’s eye.
  • Seattle Seahawks — Found their guy in Charlie Whitehurst, apparently.
  • Arizona Cardinals — McNabb’s dream destination appears to be a competition between Derek Anderson and Matt Leinart.
  • Denver Broncos — Kyle Orton is the present. Brady Quinn (gag) is the future.
  • Oakland Raiders — Don’t really see McNabb ever approving a trade to Oakland.

Certainly there are a lot of teams now out of the running. Sound off in the comments where you think McNabb will end up, if anywhere.

Quarterback Trade for DL Help?

Julius Peppers Face

There have been two separate NFL reporters/commentators who have proposed possible trades involving Eagles quarterbacks — not for draft picks, but for veteran defensive linemen.

The first comes from National Football Post’s Michael Lombardi:

What if the Browns offered Pro Bowl nose tackle Shaun Rogers for Kolb?

Rogers would be a gap closer on the field. He would give the Eagles a dominating inside player, something they don’t currently have on their roster and someone who can match up with the Cowboys’ size along their offensive line. Rogers is signed to a long-term deal, he’s kept his weight down and he was a model citizen in Cleveland last season — all of which would be appealing to the Eagles. Kolb gives the Browns a future quarterback, something Holmgren knows he needs, without having to part with a draft pick. This trade might be a win/win for both teams.

A few weeks from turning 31, Rogers is coming off a down year in which he was placed on injured reserve for a broken leg. He’s worth even less than he was two years ago, when at 28 he was traded to Cleveland for a 3rd round pick and average cornerback Leigh Bodden.

So in order for this trade to work, the Eagles would have to think Kolb was worth much less than that deal. It’s strange that Lombardi would consider this proposal just one step down from the Brown’s 1st round draft pick — since Rogers is obviously worth at most a 3rd round pick.

If the Eagles are even willing to trade Kolb, there’s no way it’s for less than what Atlanta got for Matt Schaub a few years back: two 2nd round picks. This is a silly proposal.

The second trade idea, in response to a question, comes from ESPN blogger Pat Yasinskas:

If the Panthers tag Peppers and the Eagles made McNabb available in a trade, I think that’s something the Panthers would have to consider.

Yasinskas doesn’t say this is a perfect trade (as Lombardi does annoyingly), only mentions it as a possibility. But while I like Peppers a lot more than Rogers, this won’t happen either.

Think about it. Peppers does not want to be franchise tagged again. He wants a long-term deal, and will get one on the street. Assuming he gets to free agency, the Eagles will have to decide if they want to enter a bid.

What they won’t do is trade McNabb away just for the right to pay Peppers big bucks. That’s just wasteful.

Could Kolb/McNabb be traded to Cleveland/Carolina? It’s possible. Could they be traded for veteran players instead of or in addition to draft picks? Maybe. But these two specific proposals just don’t make sense.

Where Vick Will Go: The Breakdown

Michael Vick as Eagle

So, as we’ve already done with McNabb, it’s time to breakdown where Michael Vick might end up.

Maybe I didn’t make it very clear last time, but my thoughts on distinguishing landing spots for McNabb and Vick is simple. I see three largely distinct groups of teams looking for quarterbacks this offseason. There’s the group who should be interested in McNabb: contenders who just need a good QB to put them over the top (e.g. MIN, ARI, SF). There’s the group who should be looking to the draft: teams rebuilding long term (e.g. STL, CLE, SEA). And then, somewhere in between, there’s the Vick group: those that don’t have the time or don’t want to fully rebuild, and are in some way desperate for attention (e.g. BUF, JAC, OAK).

This is definitely reductionist. For example, St. Louis might decide, as has been recently rumored, that Vick is a good bet for their franchise. Or Buffalo might want to go get McNabb instead. These are basic categories for who most likely will be interested — and you can definitely disagree with me.

But while we’re here, let’s define the Vick category a little better:

  1. Not Blowing Up and Rebuilding: I would be shocked if someone like Pete Carroll traded for Vick. He has the luxury of a few years to rebuild his team the way he wants — and can therefore take the time to develop his own QB. Whatever team takes Vick has to be looking to win now.
  2. Not a Contender Either: Arizona will not be risking their Super Bowl chances on the play of a quarterback who hasn’t played in two years. Unlike McNabb, Vick isn’t the last piece in the puzzle (and he may never have been).
  3. Franchise Uncertainty: Trading for Vick is inherently risky. The cost might not be very high for him, but he hasn’t started an NFL game in two years. Are you willing to risk your job on his performance? To some degree, the front office and/or coach is going to have to feel pressured to make a bold move and have something happen right away. Any team with the time or confidence to rebuild slowly won’t be looking at Vick.
  4. Desperation: This is what I think highlights the Vick-chasers most. Vick has maybe always been more hype than hero, and after two years away from the game that is definitely the case. Plus, he’s still a PR risk (although not as much as he was before the Eagles took the hit). He still can be an exciting addition to a team looking to return from obscurity — or just attract more fans.
  5. Need a QB, and Maybe Don’t Want to “Try Again”: Kind of obvious, but this team can’t be set at quarterback. However, I think that they might be more likely contenders if they’ve already been burned once with a QB. San Francisco and Oakland fit that bill — both having tried and failed with #1 overall picks.

So that’s the basic outline we’re talking about. Desperate, attention-seeking, uncertain, middling teams. Who, per the rumors about Vick, fits this bill:

  • Oakland Raiders: Oakland was rumored to be interested last year, but Vick (or Tony Dungy) supposedly turned them down. Vick is everything Al Davis loves — speedy, flashy, big arm. And having already been burned by JaMarcus Russell, trading for a starter makes more sense. Of course, little Oakland does “makes sense.” Then again, that may be a mark in their favor.
  • Buffalo Bills: Could be interested in McNabb, but the team reeks of desperation to me. They’re trying to stay relevant while rumors swirl about a move away from upper NY (See: move for TO). New coach who probably won’t be around long enough to mentor a new QB could be interested in Vick.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars: As I already talked about, the Jags could be an ideal spot for Vick. David Garrard hasn’t wowed anyone, and everyone knows that their biggest problem is attendance. They have to get a game-changer this offseason to reverse that trend — whether that’s Tim Tebow or Michael Vick.
  • San Francisco 49ers: I still think they’re more likely McNabb suitors, but if Mike Singletary likes Vick and wants to work with him, don’t count this out.
  • St. Louis Rams: Apparently there’s been interest, but I think Spags would be better suited continuing his long-term rebuilding plan.
  • Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks: Other teams with new regimes and long-term strategies. See above.
  • Carolina Panthers: Also mentioned them with McNabb, but this could be John Fox’s last year. If he doesn’t want to tie his future to Matt Moore, Vick could be an option.
  • Miami Dolphins: I know some people suggest this. Not likely. Chad Henne is their guy. (This also goes for DET, TB, KC)
  • Washington Redskins: If they weren’t in the NFC East, I’d say Daniel Snyder’s team would be in hot pursuit.

The takeaway: it’s tough to tell who’s really interested in Vick and who’d be willing to send a conditional pick for him. If the Eagles are forced to drop him before his bonus comes up then a lot of teams could be inquiring. Ultimately, though, I think the Jags take Tebow and either Buffalo or Oakland send something to the Eagles for Vick.

Thoughts?

Where McNabb Will Go: The Breakdown

Donovan McNabb Flex

The speculation about where various Eagles QBs could end up never ends. Of course, that’s what we’re doing here. But ultimately some of the rumors make a lot more sense than others. There are certain scenarios where a player like Donovan McNabb is a great fit. There are places where Michael Vick fits. Mostly, however, those two groups of teams are completely separate. A team calling about McNabb isn’t looking for Vick, and vice versa — because they offer completely different things.

I will do another post on the situation for Vick in the next couple days, but there’s been some buzzing on the McNabb front, so we’ll start there — with what kind of team will be inquiring about Donovan, and then what specific teams fit that mold.

A team interested in #5 has to have these characteristics:

  1. A Contender: No rebuilding team will want a 33-year-old quarterback with one year left on his contract. They’d much rather draft a prospect and rebuild in the next 2-3 years. Acquiring Donovan is a move made for next year — sacrificing a relatively high draft pick for immediate performance.
  2. Have a Definite QB Need: If there’s still a large chance that the quarterback position will be fine, the team might inquire, but won’t really pursue McNabb.
  3. QB Must be the Last Piece of the Puzzle: A GM would have to be convinced that all the team is lacking for a playoff/Super Bowl run is a good QB calling the shots. No reason to go after McNabb if the rest of the team isn’t there. Think Vikings’ pursuit of Favre. Everything else was in place, and waiting for Tavaris to mature took too long.
  4. West Coast Offense: Unclear how much this is a factor. Adam Caplan and others have argued extensively that McNabb’s familiarity with the WCO limits his desirability, because he’ll have difficulty transitioning to any other system. I personally find it hard to believe, but certainly for any team that runs a WCO, this is a huge plus if they can get a guy like McNabb.
  5. Willing to Offer Extension: McNabb is looking for job security. He won’t be happy to play for a one year rental somewhere. And the team that trades a high pick for McNabb probably won’t want to risk losing him after a year either.
  6. Not a Definite Eagles Competitor: Andy Reid is quite simply going to ask a lot more from teams who the Eagles have to compete with. The game is all about relative gains, and trading McNabb a rival won’t help the Eagles’ chances. For example, McNabb’s not going to Washington. And while he could go to another NFC team, it would be much more expensive.

Okay, so let’s look at the teams McNabb’s been linked to, and how they fit this mold:

  • Minnesota Vikings: Certainly the Vikings are major contenders for McNabb after their performance this year with Brett Favre. If Favre were to retire Brad Childress would have to give his buddy Andy a call. The biggest question is though, when will Childress know that? If he’s content to sit back and wait for Favre’s answer, it probably won’t come until at least the start of training camp. That’s not going to be conducive to a trade. Plus, I’m sure Andy would rather not trade him to a big NFC competitor. This would have to be at least a #1 pick, and Childress would have to decide he doesn’t want to wait for Favre.
  • Arizona Cardinals: Similar situation to Minnesota, except they know that Warner is gone. That begs the question, is Lienart ready? Other than the West Coast Offense thing, McNabb looks like he’d fit right into the lineup with Fitz and Boldin. Again, there is the NFC contender issue to be sorted out.
  • San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers fit this mold very well. You’re talking about a team with good skill players, good defense, but hasn’t had a quarterback in about 7 or 8 years. Their pursuit of Kurt Warner last year shows you how close they think they are to contending. And with their flop with Alex Smith still haunting them, I doubt they want to try another spin of the prospect  wheel. I think Andy would also find this more palatable than sending him to an already Super Bowl-contending team. They might even take something less than a #1 from San Fran.
  • Oakland Raiders: All of this must be premised with the fact that Al Davis is a nut and could do anything. But I think Vick is much more likely here. McNabb could not overnight turn Oakland into a contender. There are still too many holes in that team. And there’s not a chance in hell Donovan will stick around to try to rebuild the black and silver. Also not sure Andy will feel comfortable shipping his QB off to someplace so crappy. That doesn’t seem like something you’d wish on a guy you mentored and owe so much to.
  • St. Louis Rams: This team is not a contender. They need all the draft picks they can get.
  • Cleveland Browns: See above.
  • Chicago Bears: Stop people. They are wedded to Jay Cutler.
  • Carolina Panthers: Not sure this is such a clear-cut rebuilding project as Rams or Browns. While starting over might be a good idea, John Fox won’t be the one doing it. To save his job and postpone that process he’s going to need a better season — not wait for some rookie to mature. McNabb could provide that (better than Matt Moore), chucking it to Steve Smith aka DeSean Jackson Sr.
  • Buffalo Bills: Similar to Panthers. Might be better to blow stuff up. Not sure they will.
  • [Updated] Denver Broncos: Not sure why I left the Broncos off this list. Josh McDaniels has already traded for one veteran QB, why not try again? If he could get a rookie, I think he’d prefer that though.

What all of this adds up to is that if I had to put money on McNabb’s final destination, it would be the 49ers. Their willingness to already pursue a similar solution in Warner makes sense. Meanwhile, Minnesota will wait for Favre and Arizona will give Lienart a chance. That’s just my analysis based on these criteria — and of course he might not get traded at all.  Feel free to sound off about what you agree or disagree about.