The following is a guest post by @sunset_shazz.
In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, one of the key lessons learned was that you cannot afford to ignore rare events, and that you should not assume that an event that rarely occurs is the same thing as one that never transpires. One of the key errors in subprime risk modeling was the assumption that there was zero probability of home price decline. As an old colleague of mine used to say, “never is a long time”.
Which brings us to our friend David Murphy, who, a few weeks ago, with the arrogance and overconfidence of a subprime bond salesman, declared:
Are the Eagles looking to make a play up the board to draft a Quarterback of the Future?
No. Hell no. It makes no sense. Unless Howie Roseman and Pederson are the two least rational people on the planet, everything that they have done thus far this offseason tells us that there is a ZERO percent chance that they are planning to make a play for Wentz or Goff. And everything we know about Roseman tells us he is the opposite of irrational. You do not survive as long as he has without being an extremely cold, calculating, meticulous decision-maker.
So . . . no. Hell no.
Now, I agreed, ex ante, that such a scenario was unlikely. Maybe 10-15% probability by my rough guess. But only a fool or somebody with no life experience says that a future event has 0% probability. And the easiest way to test such foolishness is to ask the fool to put his money where his mouth is. If he really thinks 0% probability is a fair bet, he should jump at the chance to take money from a sucker such as myself who offers him INFINITELY more than $0 should this impossible event occur. So I did.
To his credit, he didn’t demur. Instead, he backed his tough talk with real dollars. And, of course, today, the Eagles traded a king’s ransom to move up to the 2nd pick overall. Technically the bet has not been decided; if the Eagles don’t take a QB in the 1st round, I still lose. If they do take a QB, I assume that David is a man of his word, though I ask that rather than sending me the money, he instead donate $100 directly to Connor Barwin’s Make The World Better project. He can even take the tax deduction.
Bottom line: rare events occasionally occur. Nothing has zero probability – on any given Sunday (or Wednesday!) anything can happen. And that’s why we love this game.