Touchbacks: Returning More With Less

Last year, I projected that the new kickoff rules — mainly the new default kick spot at the 35, rather than 30 yardline — would result in a huge increase in touchbacks. The math from 2010 showed that touchbacks would likely go from 16 percent to almost 40 percent of all kicks.

Turns out I was close, but not high enough. According to what I compiled directly from play-by-play data, 44.5 percent of all kicks were touchbacks in 2011. But let’s go a little bit deeper.

Just how much did those extra five yards help the kickers? Check out the graphs at right.

In 2010, only 38 percent of all kickoffs made it to the end zone. With an extra five yards of distance, NFL kickers took advantage. They kicked 81 percent of all kicks into the end zone in 2011.

But that’s not all. With that kind of increase, we would expect even higher levels of touchbacks than just 44 percent. So what kept it down? Apparently, the returners.

The chart above plots the percentage of kickoffs that became touchbacks by where they landed in the end zone. Obviously, as the kicks got deeper, returns became more rare.

The odd thing is that the end zone kicks were returned much more frequently in 2011 than in 2010. The first two yards are still almost always returned. But under the old rules, returners frequently didn’t bring out kicks that were just 3 or 4 yards deep. By 5 yards into the end zone, 72 percent were touchbacks.

This past year, that changed. Returners actually brought out more than half of all kicks as deep as 7 yards into the end zone. There were still more touchbacks overall, and a higher percentage of kicks into the end zone became touchbacks with the added distance. But returners took more risk than before, even knowing that the coverage teams also had five yards less to make up.

Perhaps kick returners felt the need to justify their continued presence on the roster. Kneeling down over and over would drive many a fierce competitor to take unnecessary risks. It will be interesting to see how that changes in year two after the kickoff changes.

Photo from Getty.

Touchbacks Skyrocket to 43.5 Percent

Paul Carr, for the ESPN Stats & Info blog:

Expressed as a percentage, 53.4 percent of kickoffs were returned this season, a huge drop from 80.1 percent in 2010.

In a related note, touchbacks skyrocketed to 43.5 percent this season, more than two and a half times last year’s rate of 16.4 percent.

I was pretty close. My analysis of the new rule, based on last year’s kickoffs, suggested just under 40 percent touchbacks. The difference is small but perhaps meaningful. While returners brought back more deep kicks, kickers may have used the shorter field try for distance over hangtime.

(Via BGN)

Quick Hit Thoughts on the First Preseason Game

The big story from the first preseason game Thursday night was clearly the tremendous pressure the Eagles got from the defensive line. I’m not sure that the front four caused as much chaos in the backfield during any quarter last season as they did in the first 15 minutes last night. If the Eagles can bring that same pass rush to bear during the regular season, Jim Washburn will rightfully be lauded (as he already is).

Still, I have to throw a little cold water on the unnatural optimism (for Eagles fans). First of all, the usual caveats apply: we saw less than a quarter of action from the starters, which is generally predictive of squat. But perhaps more importantly, the Baltimore offensive line has almost as many dead bodies as you’d see on the streets of The Wire. The Ravens line already ranked 25th in pass protection in 2010 according to Football Outsiders. And now they have new starters at right guard and right tackle.

In short, I couldn’t have expected much more from the Eagles defensive line last night. But let’s watch at least a few more preseason games before we crown them.

* * *

Other quick hit thoughts:

• You probably noticed that only one of the six kickoffs was returned last night. I might have written something about that before…
• I thought the most impressive thing about Michael Vick’s series was how good he made the starting trio of Jason Avant, Riley Cooper, and Chad Hall look. The best quarterbacks in the league raise the play of average wideouts (see Manning, Peyton and Brady, Tom). Maybe we shouldn’t worry too much about Jeremy Maclin’s injuries.
• Also, staying in the pocket and threading the needle for the touchdown pass to Brent Celek on the Eagles’ first red zone appearance of the year was sublime .
• Vince Young looked like Vince Young. He’s a less accurate, less steady version of Michael Vick. But almost as elusive with his legs.
• Wished we could have gotten more looks at the first team linebackers and offensive linemen. Both units were question marks for me before the game and I didn’t see enough to answer anything.
• File this under a positive start for the revamped, all star defensive backfield: the Ravens didn’t complete a pass to a wide receiver until almost 25 minutes into the game.

Photo from Getty.

Kickoff Rule Update: Expect Touchbacks Galore

After the NFL owners approved the new rule moving kickoffs up by five yards, I wrote a post about how the change might affect the number of kickoff returns. Only 16 percent of all kickoffs ended up as touchbacks last year, and I projected that they would more than double. However, my projection was only moderately scientific — I didn’t have all the data for every kickoff. Instead, I was just modeling from the averages of each kicker.

So I thought I’d go back and comb through the actual play-by-play data and see if I could come up with a more definite answer.

First, let’s look at how often kickoffs become touchbacks by distance. Mostly it matters where the ball lands. Obviously, if the kick never makes it to the end zone, the returner has to pick it up and take it out. But when it lands in the endzone…

Turns out that the first yard or two don’t make a big difference. More than nine in every ten kickoffs landing less than two yards deep in the end zone get returned. But the ratio goes up sharply from there. By the time we get three yards deeper, the returner is only bringing out less than one in three kicks. And once the ball gets seven, eight, or nine yards in, only desperation would cause a player to attempt a return.

The graph shows how much of a difference five extra yards is going to make. Many more footballs last year fell in the 5 to -5 yard range than in the deep zone. As those push forward they get exponentially more difficult to return.

Therefore, when I added five yards to each kickoff from last year and assumed the same return percentage by distance, there was a huge jump in touchbacks. Unless the kickers in 2011 take a big step back, touchbacks should go from 16 percent to just under 40 percent. I know that was my rough estimate last time, but now I can fully back up such a prediction. Also, as I wrote before, this is actually still a low projection. It assumes that kickoff coverage teams won’t get any better even though they have five less yards to cover, and kickers themselves won’t change their tactics to further maximize touchbacks.

Finally, there’s the question of how much this changes the role of the players. For starters, kickers with the most powerful legs aren’t huge difference makers any more, which should please middle-of-the-road David Akers.

There’s an additional benefit for Eagles fans though. Andy Reid hasn’t been keen on investing in a kickoff returner. Last year’s main man was Jorrick Calvin, who was only slightly better than awful. Plus, kickoff coverage has often been one of the Eagles weakest units. But the rule change takes a lot of the power out of the returner’s hands. Their ability to make big plays has dropped by at least at least 30 percent.

Again, this might seem like a small rule change. But it’s going to have a big impact throughout the NFL.

Photo from Getty. Originally published at NBC Philadelphia.

Kickoff Returns Will Drop Sharply with New Rule

This week the NFL owners approved a rule change that will move kickoffs forward five yards, from the 30 to the 35 yard line. And while that might not seem like a lot, it will have a huge impact on the return game, drastically cutting back on the number of kickoffs that can be brought all the way back for a game-changing play.

Last year, kickers (with at least 15 attempts, not counting onside kicks) averaged 65 yards per kickoff — so the ball landed at the 5 yard line. Because most of these kicks ended up short of or barely crossing into the end zone, returners brought out the vast majority. Only about 16 percent of kickoffs were downed in the end zone for touchbacks in 2010.

When the kickers move forward five yards and average the same distance per kick, the ball is going to land in the end zone a lot more. Some NFL reporters, such as Sal Paolantonio, have suggested that the status quo is likely to return to what it was in 1993. That was the last year that kickoffs occurred at the 35 yard line. In 1993, touchbacks accounted for 32 percent of all kickoffs.

However, we won’t see touchbacks simply double. Kickers have improved significantly since the early nineties. They kick farther and with more hang time than ever before. So  you can’t assume the league will go back to just 32 percent touchbacks.

Based on the correlation between average kickoff distance and touchback percentage, I extrapolated from the 2010 data to determine how many touchbacks we’d have if each kicker essentially gained an extra five yard head start. According to my calculations, the actual number of touchbacks will be more like 40 percent of all kickoffs in 2011.

And that’s actually a conservative estimate. Billy Cundiff of the Ravens was the only kicker in 2010 to average over 70 yards per kickoff (71.1). Most of his kicks landed in the endzone, causing over half of them to go unreturned. With the five yard bump to the 35, the average kickoff will likely be over 70 yards now, thus allowing many more kickers to also force 50 percent or more touchbacks.

Plus, when the receiving team does get a returnable kick, the opposing tacklers will now have less ground to cover in order to get down the field and cut off the angles for a long return. Teams aren’t going to be paying more money for kickoff or return specialists anymore, either.

Overall, these changes have a clear effect. By reducing the number of returnable kicks and cutting down the likelihood of a breakout play, the NFL owners may have relegated kickoffs to an afterthought in the game. Enjoy the touchdown returns, because they’ll be few and far between.

Originally published on NBC Philadelphia. Photo from Getty.

Should the Eagles Let David Akers Go?

Eagles long-time kicker David Akers has been in the headlines recently after his two missed field goals in the Wild Card game came back to haunt the team. Andy Reid made some critical comments following the game about Akers.

“We can all count,” Reid said. “Those points would have helped.” But then later we learned that Akers’s six-year-old daughter was diagnosed with a malignant tumor only days before the playoffs began.

Akers’ contract is up, and some in the national media have suggested that this may be the end of his tenure in Philadelphia — especially after these recent events. At 36-years-old and after those two missed field goals, could it be time to say goodbye to Akers?

Not so fast. Looking at the kicker’s production over his career shows that even at his age, he’s playing at his highest level yet. Let’s start by looking at career kickoffs — where we can measure Akers’s leg strength:

After factoring out onside kicks, it’s easy to see that Akers in 2010 has shown as much leg strength as ever. In fact, four out of the last five years have been his most productive.

And what about touchbacks:

Again, even at 36, Akers is doing better than ever. He had his highest touchback percentage of his career in 2010.

Finally, let’s compare him to the rest of the league this season:

Turns out Akers’s great 2010 doesn’t look quite as good in comparison to the rest of the league. He’s only average in kickoff distance although he’s in the top ten in touchbacks. Still, there’s no evidence that his leg strength is slipping, and unless the Eagles are sure they can pick up an elite kicker to replace him, there doesn’t seem to much reason to let Akers walk in free agency.

Check back soon and we’ll take a similar look at Akers’s field goal percentages to see where they measure up.

Originally published at NBC Philadelphia. Photo from Getty.