Mike Tanier, over at his new home Sports on Earth, has a quick look at one Eagles defensive change at halftime designed to inhibit the Ravens' tight end-centered attack. Interestingly, Juan Castillo apparently didn't order the change, but rather it was the defensive backs acting on their own (or perhaps under the authority of shadow-coordinator Todd Bowles). Check it out.
By the Numbers: Eagles Triumph Over Ravens
If the ending of the Browns game came as a collective sigh of relief among Eagles fans, this one point win was a jubilant scream. Despite more turnovers, penalties, and a spate of injuries that grounded three offensive starters, the Eagles beat what looks like at worst a solid contender and at best a team primed to make a deep playoff run. Kudos all around. Let's go to the numbers:
71.9 = Michael Vick's completion percentage. That's Vick's second-highest single-game completion percentage since he came to Philly. He still isn't out of the woods; that end zone interception on the first drive was too ambitious, and he almost had a third pick when he tried to force the ball to Brent Celek in the red zone, but this was a much better version of Vick.
36.0 = Average QB rating vs Eagles defense. Average QB rating in opponents' other games (both vs CIN): 121.7. Great stat find by The Guy On The Couch, at the very least it shows how much better the Eagles D is compared to the Bengals D.
42:31 = Eagles pass-run play call ratio. The actual ratio of passes to runs tilts the other way because of Vick's scrambles, but overall Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg called a fairly balanced attack (especially compared to last week). Two other notes on this. One: LeSean McCoy clearly has a pitch count. Otherwise they wouldn't have given six early carries to Bryce Brown/Stanley Havili/Damaris Johnson. Two: the pitch count makes it obvious early on when the Eagles are going to focus on the run. If the coaches know they want to run more, they work hard to limit McCoy's touches early in order to preserve him for later.
9 = Eagles turnovers in their first two games. It's amazing that the Eagles have managed to win twice with these turnovers (plus other mistakes like penalties). The only five teams with worse turnover margins are a combined 3-7 so far. What does DeSean Jackson think about this?
"If you cut away those turnovers, the best team in the league," he said, "period, hands down."
30 = Possessions by Eagles opponents in two games. Not to harp on the same theme, but the defense has had to deal with the ramifications of those turnovers. Let me put it this way: the Ravens offense racked up 44 points in 10 drives against the Bengals. They could only muster 23 points in 14 drives against the Eagles.
70 = Defensive snaps for both DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. They played every down yesterday. Looks like the linebacker shuffle may be over, at long last.
19.6 = Yards per catch for Celek. The Eagles tight end had a tremendous game, not the least of which was his vault over Hall of Fame safety Ed Reed. I think this will be easier to see on All-22, but it seems that the Ravens—like the Browns before them—kept their safeties deep to prevent the long ball. That opened up a lot of space in the middle of the field for Celek to exploit in crossing routes. One of the things that such success suggests, however, is how much better Vick is throwing to larger targets. At least until Riley Cooper returns, Celek is by far the Eagles biggest receiver—and that's unfortunate.
25 = Pass targets, out of 42 total, for Ray Rice and Dennis Pitta. Again, tough to tell before the All-22 is released, but it seemed that the Eagles were very effective in man coverage on the Ravens wide receivers. Aside from a few breakdowns, like Jacoby Jones beating Nnamdi Asomugha with a double move or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie inexplicably bailing out of coverage on Torrey Smith down the sideline, Flacco couldn't get anything going on the outside or up the field. He was forced to check down to his tight end and running back, a trade-off the Eagles will take every time. There's definitely room to improve against those players, though. Nate Allen and Kurt Coleman each had trouble at times keeping up with Pitta/Rice.
2 = Back-to-back Eagles wins by a single point. Last season, the Eagles went 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less. This year, they've won two straight by a single point. I think some of the "if this were 2011, they would have lost" talk is misleading, because this isn't about "heart" or something similarly abstract. A large part is substantive improvement in the defense. In both games, the Eagles opponent had ample time to mount a game-winning drive in the final seconds (and the Ravens certainly had the kicker to pull it off). The difference in 2012 is that the defense is good enough that it can shut down an offense in the last moments.
Photo from Getty.
Mister Rodgers-Cromartie's Neighborhood
Cullen Jenkins puppet is for real.
Week Two
Baltimore Ravens @ Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 pm EST on CBS
More Fun With All-22
I'm a big fan of the coaches' tape, which I've played with a little bit this week. Other people have actually been putting it to work, though. We've seen a blogsplosion in great content. Here are two more:
Three Eagles Must-Reads
This week is tremendously busy for me at my day job, so I haven't had time to dig deep into the Browns game or the upcoming match up against the Ravens yet. Luckily for you, other folks are writing brilliant stuff. Here are your three must-reads:
- Sheil Kapadia's All-22 look at the Eagles offense.
- Then Sheil's All-22 look at the Eagles defense.
- Andy Benoit at Football Outsiders analyzing Eagles-Ravens using the All-22.
(See a pattern?)
Same Old Eagles? Not So Fast
The prevailing reaction to Sunday's season opener was, "Here we go again." The Eagles won, despite showing shockingly bad tendencies across the field. Anyone who was optimistic all offseason that the problems of 2011 were behind us was sorely mistaken.
But the more I think about the game, the more I think that narrative rings false. In fact, the team we saw on Sunday looked markedly different than last year's version — for better and worse. This version looked like a Bizarro Eagles — comically exaggerated in some ways and a complete 180 turn in others. All told, I may actually be more optimistic today that I was before Sunday.
Let's start, as one should, with Michael Vick. The conventional wisdom was that whatever was wrong with Vick in 2011 could be fixed in a few months of one-on-one tutelage with Marty Mornhinweg. I was never so sure. To me, Vick looked like a flawed quarterback last year. I use the word flawed purposely. He certainly wasn't the elite player we glimpsed in 2010, a Superman quarterback. But for 2011 Football Outsiders ranked him 12th in passing DVOA, the second-best mark in his career — by far — and just a tick below his 2010 performance. Other measures were even more positive: lowest sack rate in his career and highest yards per rush since 2006, despite staying in the pocket more than ever.
Vick's biggest problems in 2011 were accuracy and turnovers, both of which reverted back toward his career averages. That alone, though, doesn't make Vick a bad quarterback — just flawed. And they are flaws Vick is unlikely to snap out of at age 32. But the Vick we saw against the Browns wasn't merely flawed, he was broken. He posted a shocking single-game -50.7% DVOA, third-worst in the NFL, in front of only Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden (-106.4% LOL). He threw four interceptions, tying a career-worst. His quarterback rating was 51.0, worse than in all but one game he's played in the last two years.
Derek gave you the pessimistic scenario for Vick's problems — that Andy Reid and company have actually made him worse by tinkering. There is truth there with regard to Vick's regression in 2011. He was at his best when he was playing off the cuff, taking the world by storm in 2010. But in terms of Sunday, we may have watched something akin to a statistical anomaly. It is unlikely that Vick has permanently fallen back to the realm of overmatched rookies, unable to see linebackers dropping back into coverage. You can't wave away his performance with a "rusty" tag, but what you saw is basically worst case scenario Vick. I would be surprised if he is still be playing at that level next week, let alone six weeks from now.
That is, assuming the offensive line gets fixed. Bizarro Eagles exaggerated Vick's flaws — as well as the line's problems. King Dunlap is a poor substitute for Jason Peters, but he wasn't the (main) issue. There were simply too many communications breakdowns. Sheil Kapadia ran through every hit Vick took, and by my quick examination, eight of those involved either a completely unblocked rusher or one that was handed off improperly. Considering four out of the five linemen played together last year, that shouldn't happen. Nor do I expect it to going forward. Molding the line into a coherent unit is what Howard Mudd gets paid the big bucks to do — and it's an easier fix than having to replace overmatched players.
Clearly the play-calling was also an issue. Why did the Eagles keep four running backs if they aren't going to use them? Take some pressure off of Vick by running more of the offense through LeSean McCoy. And if you're worried about McCoy breaking down, give some carries to Bryce Brown (or Dion Lewis or Chris Polk). Last year, right after the Eagles fourth preseason loss, I advocated unleashing McCoy. Coincidentally, that was right after Vick played in a similarly crappy manner to last Sunday (2 TDs, 4 INTS, 315 yards passing). Marty Mornhinweg listened (or at least had the same thought), and proceeded to call Shady's number for 58 rushes over the next two games. He didn't disappoint — racking up 311 yards and three scores. Mornhinweg and Reid aren't complete idiots. They know last week's pass-run ratio was untenable, and nearly cost them the game.
Thus, in my mind, the team's three biggest problems are eminently fixable (four, if you count an extreme number of penalties). Moreover, their biggest liability from last year — the defense — showed signs of improvement. Look, it's hard to draw conclusions playing against Brandon Weeden & Co. That offense looked pitiful. But Juan Castillo's defense was rock solid. They did everything they were asked to do and more.
Cleveland had the fourth-highest average starting field position in the NFL on Sunday, courtesy of the five Eagles turnovers. They were also tied for first (with the Eagles) in total number of offensive possessions (15). Despite that, the defense only allowed three measly field goals. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie stole two interceptions (Asante Samuel who?). The defensive line stacked up against the run better than we've seen since Jim Washburn came to town. DeMeco Ryans put last year's linebackers to shame with his burst through the hole.
No one should expect this level of dominance from the defense against the Ravens or other opponents, but it seems well on its way to competence and more. If you're looking for a reason for optimism, this is it. The offense is unlikely to be as bad as we saw in week one. The defense looks better than it has in quite some time. Is it too early to talk playoffs? (Yes, for the record.)
Photo from Getty
What if Michael Vick were Tiger Woods?
I feel like we should root for frustrating/maddening results from the Eagles, because it's the only thing that drags Derek Sarley out of his self-imposed blogging exile. Obviously, it's a thought-provoking read:
Vick has said before that he wishes Andy Reid had gotten to him sooner. Everyone does. When Vick was at his best in 2010, he ran the Reid offense -- for a short period of time -- better than anyone we've ever seen.
But you can't change history. Right now, we have Vick the 32-year-old, not Vick the 23-year-old. He's never going to play the game the way Peyton Manning plays it and -- here's the kicker -- the more they try to push him in that direction the more it seems to screw him up. It turns out, you don't get all the good stuff Vick gives you plus 30 percent or 50 percent of Peyton. You get a discombobulated mess that leaves otherwise sane individuals asking if, you know, maybe it's time to give Nick Foles a shot.
Recap: Eagles vs. Browns
I don't know what everyone's all excited about. This is why the Eagles schedule five preseason games in the first place.
Michael Vick didn't have his greatest game. In fact, he was downright bad, with four interceptions and a few more close calls. But, as Andy Reid said after the game, Vick was just "rusty." After he injured himself the last two times he took the field, it was good to see Vick back out there today, and his ability to "just keep shooting" will help him once the real games start.
What's that? Yes, you're right. Vick was supposed to show improvement this year, considering he had his "first real offseason as a starter" with quarterback gurus Reid and Marty Mornhinweg. But I'm sure that "new Vick" is coming soon. The fact that he looked worse than ever, making poor decisions and forgetting that linebackers existed in coverage, is a small thing. Vick needed to get out some of the bugs, and what else is a dress rehearsal for?
That must have been the reason Reid and Mornhinweg didn't use LeSean McCoy. Vick had 65 pass drop backs in the game, while the Eagles All-Pro running back—who the Browns demonstrated an inability to stop—was a sideshow for most of the afternoon. Better to keep McCoy fresh for the games that count, I suppose, and let Vick get more practice throwing interceptions.
That goes double for Jeremy Maclin, who racked up yardage and a touchdown, but wisely avoided blocking down the field and dropped a few balls just for practice. We wouldn't want the biggest of the Eagles' healthy wide receivers to actually demonstrate toughness yet.
We can probably also discount the inebriated performance of the offensive line. Howard Mudd was just using this game to test the replacement referees' definition of holding and roughing the passer. When Danny Watkins let his man stream by him off the snap, I'm sure it was in service of one of those goals. Same with the time that McCoy tried to run behind his left tackle, and the King in the North just stood there, idly watching.
Besides, the defense looked great, didn't it? Let's not discount their improvement. Yes, it was against on offense that probably had trouble tying its shoes in the morning, but that's no matter. Brandon Weeden and his 5.1 passer rating is surely up to the quality of the rest of the quarterbacks the Eagles will face. And the Browns' other offensive weapons were at least average, right?
Save your outrage. Embrace "rusty." And wake me up next week in time for the season opener against the Ravens. There's a game I'm looking forward to.
Photo from Getty.