Everyone's so excited, it's like a political campaign! Right?
Week One
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns
1:00 pm EST on FOX
Matchup: Eagles vs. Browns
Les Bowen had a fun piece today, looking at the last five Eagles season openers. It's interesting. There were three blowout victories: 2008, 2009, and 2011. Then there were two close losses (both to the Packers, incidentally) in 2007 and 2010.
It's hard to look at the Eagles matchup on Sunday and not see something closer to the former than the latter. The Browns appear to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Their starting quarterback is a 28-year-old rookie. They have no passing weapons to speak of. Trent Richardson, their other first round pick, seems dangerous—but he's hobbled by an injury. The Browns defense is filled with castoffs, starting a familiar defensive backfield that includes Dimitri Patterson and Sheldon Brown. Mike Tanier was dead on accurate in his assessment of the Browns as the Eagles "minor-league affiliate".
I don't know how you call this game any other way but a victory for the Eagles. They're the nine-point favorite—on the road! I'm not smart enough to pick against all these factors. All I had to see was Damaris Johnson torching Sheldon Brown down the sidelines in the third preseason game. If that's what an undrafted free agent can do, I'm expecting a big day from the newly-minted man, DeSean Jackson. Hopefully this game will also give Michael Vick an opportunity to return to form against slightly lesser competition.
All that said, I'm also expecting a sloppy game. The Eagles weren't exactly firing on all cylinders throughout the preseason (which is fine). Keep an eye on the offensive line and linebackers this week. Problems there might not be enough to lose the game, but as with last year's opener against the Rams, the warning signs may be flashing for the rest of the season.
See you on Sunday!
Photo from Getty
Round and Round They Go
I swear to God that I was planning on writing a post for today titled "The Optimist's Guide to the 2012 Eagles." Heavens knows I've been critical all offseason.
But then we heard the music from Linebacker Musical Chairs™ start up once more:
Asked if he still considers himself a three-down linebacker, which is what the Eagles heralded Ryans as when they traded for him, Ryans said: "I am."
But will he be a three-down linebacker on Sunday?
"That's the coaches' decision. I don't decide who goes out on the field," Ryans said.
Apparently Jamar Chaney and Mychael Kendricks took first team reps at nickel. For more, see my post from July on Ryans not necessarily being the three-down linebacker we expected.
Oh, Danny Boy
There are plenty of reasons to be unhappy with the Danny Watkins pick in 2011. There's his age, for starters. Guard isn't exactly a premium position, especially in Howard Mudd's scheme. Plus, there was his poor play last year after being called "NFL ready" by basically everyone.
But now we have to worry about something more: that Watkins's football intelligence just isn't close to being starter-quality yet. Sheil Kapadia, who continues to kill it over at Birds 24/7, wrote a revealing piece about Watkins yesterday:
When Danny Watkins saw a notice last week at the Novacare Complex for a mandatory rookie event, his first instinct was to tell his teammate, Jason Kelce.
But then, Watkins remembered: He's not a rookie anymore.
Alright, alright. Mocking him for forgetting that he's not a rookie anymore would be juvenile. But take that in context of the rest of the story. Here's Jason Kelce on Watkins's progress:
"Now, having a full offseason under his belt, finally learning to think about things in different ways than he's used to, he can now watch film on his own and tell what's going on. 'I screwed up there. I should be doing this.' That's huge. Really, if you're at the level where you should be mentally, you should know immediately after a play, I just screwed that up. Last year, he wasn't at that level, whereas now, he's slowly able to recognize, 'I should have did that better that last play.' "
Wait, I'm supposed to comfortable with a guy who's "slowly" able figure out that he might have done something wrong on the previous play? It's one thing to mess up, to miss a block or blow an assignment. Everybody makes mistakes. But it's mind-boggling to me that someone would consistently not even realize that they made a mistake at all.
It's not a good sign that Watkins only now is learning how to watch film. That (a) was something the Eagles should have known before they drafted him and (b) something renowned line coach Howard Mudd ought to be able to teach. Unless... Well, yeah, we've been there already.
At the end of the day, your former first round pick shouldn't be talking about your former sixth round pick like there are light years separating the two:
"Looking back at where me and him started last year, he's so far ahead with his football IQ, and I'm trying to learn from him. I think he's going to do awesome this year. I'm excited for him."
Photo from Getty.
Check Out My Forbes Cover Story
My day job doesn't often cross paths with this blog, but when it does, the results tend to be awesome. I wrote the cover story for the latest edition of Forbes Magazine. It's about new Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shahid Khan. Hopefully the lack of Eagles content will be outweighed by NFL insight and one tremendous mustache. But I'll let you decide.
Final Thoughts on the Final Cuts
The final cuts are in, and I was wrong on so many counts. Oh well, not all of us can be Geoff Mosher. Here are my last thoughts on the roster as it currently stands:
- I'm really kicking myself for not marking down a cut for Joselio Hanson. It's not like I didn't see this coming. He played poorly in 2011 (Sheil Kapadia noted that his Success Rate dropped dramatically) and the Eagles actually drafted his clear replacement. This should have been an easy call, but I was confused by the Eagles not giving Boykin much of a chance to start in the preseason.
- Speaking of the secondary, is anyone else worried about the safety position? I'm on record as being relatively skeptical about the starters, but all in all they should be fine. The problem comes if they don't play well consistently—or one of them, shocker, gets hurt. Are you going to turn to Jaiquawn Jarrett? What about newly acquired youngster David Sims? Colt Anderson, coming off an injury, has never been thought of as anything more than a special teams whiz kid. I'm shocked that the Eagles could have five safeties on the roster and not one reliable veteran backup. Les Bowen did have a good quote from Howie Roseman on the bare safety market:
Everyone’s looking for safeties. They’re really hard to find. We’ve talked about this publicly. We’ve talked about it with our scouts. It’s just a position where guys who used to play it are moving to other spots. Some of it is the advent of the spread offense in college football. Some of it is other positions being glorified.
- Not to rehash an extended discussion I had on Twitter last week, but it seems like the Trent Edwards over Mike Kafka decision may have more to it than meets the eye. It wasn't a month ago that Kafka was considered a lock to be Michael Vick's backup. Then he played 9 snaps, broke his hand, and was promptly passed by not one, but two players. Nick Foles certainly played his was into the second-string job, but was Edwards really that impressive? After getting cut by three teams and then sitting out the entire 2011 season, Edwards looked like just a camp body. He didn't get many reps in practice and although he played well in preseason games, that was against third and fourth-stringers. Perhaps it had less to do with Edwards though, and more to do with Foles. Once the rookie showed what he could do (perhaps even established himself as a QBOTF), the difference between Kafka and Edwards was meaningless. All that mattered was picking the player who best complemented (or who was best friends with) Foles.
- Darryl Tapp reportedly took a pay cut to stay with the Eagles. It will be interesting to see if they make five defensive ends active on gameday. That's the only reason it makes sense to keep him.
- The team kept both Bryce Brown and Chris Polk. I wonder if, at least for the future, there's some doubt about Dion Lewis. Lewis has shown some flashes, but he's a much better understudy than complement to LeSean McCoy, since everything the former can do the latter can do better. Brown and Polk bring different styles to the table. With any luck, one of them will be able to fill a Correll Buckhalter-type role down the line.
Photo from Getty.
Notes on Cut Down Day
The Eagles need to get down to a 53-man roster by 9pm tonight. I already published my final roster prediction yesterday. However, here are somethings to watch for:
- Apparently Joselio Hanson was already cut. So much for one of my predictions. Really should have stuck with my gut on that one.
- OJ Atogwe's injury throws a wrench into an already broken safety position. If his hamstring problem is anything more than day-to-day, I expect the team to cut him and find someone else off the street. After flirting with the waiver wire all preseason, Jaiquawn Jarrett is definitely going to survive.
- Other than safety, the interior offensive line is the place most likely to see a free agent pickup. I chose Steve Vallos over Dallas Reynolds basically at random. Good possibility that neither makes the squad.
- I really don't understand the fascination with Trent Edwards. I wasn't able to watch the game last night, but is anyone surprised that a quarterback with 33 regular season starts under his belt would have no problem playing against third and fourth string players? Replacement-level veterans like that are always available off the street.
- Presumably the trade phones will be ringing all day about Darryl Tapp. I really don't see him sticking around, but if the Eagles don't get an offer they like in time, maybe he stays for a day or two past the deadline.
Final 2012 Eagles 53-Man Roster Prediction
I have to admit, this exercise was a lot easier last year. When I was struggling with the final spots on my predicted roster this year, the problem wasn't finding guys to cut -- it was the opposite. There are half a dozen players that I couldn't care less about making the team. Yet some of them are going to survive cuts, if only by default. Knowing this, I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles shake up the bottom few jobs by bringing in players from the outside.
In any case, here goes nothing:
Quarterback: (3) Vick, Foles, Kafka. What Foles showed in the preseason was far beyond what anyone expected of him. By looking like a natural NFL quarterback with the poise and pocket presence to make all the throws, he most likely played himself into the backup job, or at least QBOTF consideration. Mike Kafka's ceiling looks more like AJ Feeley at this point, but that's not without value. While Trent Edwards is the walking definition of the replacement player you can get off the street, Kafka has been groomed in Philadelphia.
Running Back: (4) McCoy, Lewis, Brown, Havili. Bryce Brown won the third RB spot by showing his potential. He's still quite raw in most phases of the game, but that's fine in this spot. It's possible the Eagles could keep him inactive in the first few weeks, though, unless he's demonstrated that he can be an asset in special teams. Chris Polk is the odd man out, either to the practice squad or injured reserve. He never showed anything of note, so I wouldn't feel bad letting him go. Stanley Havili played his way into the fullback job against the Patriots, although the team could look at waiver wire castoffs as well.
Tight End: (2) Celek, Harbor. After fans experienced a brief wave of idealism about the Eagles keeping a third tight end, Brett Brackett never demonstrated anything that can't be had on the practice squad.
Wide Receiver: (6) Jackson, Maclin, Avant, Cooper, Johnson, McNutt. Last year Eagles kept six WRs, including an injured player. This year, that player is Riley Cooper. Damaris Johnson doesn't look as dependable as Chad Hall, but his explosive talent makes Hall expendable nonetheless. As for McNutt, he could be a practice squad candidate after a quiet preseason. But I'm not sure you can go into week one with only four healthy wide receivers, especially none of whom are taller than 6'0". Eventually, McNutt could be a replacement for Cooper and/or Avant. Might be worth stashing for now.
Offensive Line: (9) Herremans, Watkins, Kelce, Mathis, Dunlap, Bell, Kelly, Vandervelde, Vallos. This is one of those positions where a waiver wire pickup could be useful. There isn't a single backup that you would feel comfortable stepping in. With that in mind, I think Demetress Bell is only saved by the guaranteed nature of his contract. If they didn't have to pay him $3 million anyway, Bell probably wouldn't be worth keeping.
Defensive End: (5) Cole, Babin, Hunt, Graham, Curry. Having already been surpassed by Philip Hunt and at least matched by Brandon Graham, Darryl Tapp is in trouble. His salary is so much higher than the other backups, that it's just not justifiable. Somebody must be willing to send the Eagles a fifth or sixth round pick for him.
Defensive Tackle: (5) Jenkins, Cox, Landri, Thornton, Dixon. Consummate veteran Mike Patterson will miss at least the first six weeks, and possibly the entire season as his skull heals from brain surgery. With him out of the picture, you need to have enough guys in the middle that you can count on. Cedric Thornton might have shown more than Antonio Dixon this preseason, but the big-bodied Dixon has been a tremendous run stuffer in the past. He's on the bubble, and maybe even trade bait, but I think he sticks for now.
Linebacker: (6) Ryans, Kendricks, Jordan, Rolle, Chaney, Matthews. The main competition was always Akeem Jordan vs. Keenan Clayton, which was superceded this week when Jordan was (at least temporarily) promoted to starting WIL. There's actually a shot that Clayton sticks around as a seventh guy here, though. Keep an eye on the health of Jamar Chaney and Casey Matthews for the indicator on that. Bobby April could also ask for him as a replacement for Colt Anderson.
Cornerback: (6) Asomguha, Rodgers-Cromartie, Marsh, Boykin, Hanson, Hughes. This spot is a matter of trust: how much are you willing to count on Curtis Marsh and Brandon Boykin? The Eagles have been trying to get rid of Joselio Hanson for two years now, but he's a cheap insurance policy until Boykin is ready. Hughes can play all the positions and special teams.
Safety: (4) Allen, Coleman, Atogwe, Jarrett. Jaiquawn Jarrett has six weeks (i.e. until Anderson returns) to prove that he's a better backup than OJ Atogwe.
Special Teams: (3) Henery, Henry, Dorenbos. Yesterday I would have listed Mat McBriar here. Shows how seriously you should take this whole endeavor.
Photo from Getty.