On the Inaccuracy of SackSEER

Jimmy Kempski:

I think just about any knowledgeable football fan that is familiar with Football Outsiders is generally very complimentary of the work they do (as they should be), but SackSEER has its fans and detractors. The model was formed from data collected prior to the 2010 season and was first introduced in 2010. Therefore, the the model pre-2010 is understandably extremely successful. Its fans point to the pre-2010 success. Its detractors feel that predicting a player’s future in the NFL based on a couple jumps and a few passes through some cones at the Combine is a little ridiculous. It also is a pure data model that ignores things like watching game tape.

Jimmy rightly points out the utter failure this model has been in the last two years, although I’d make two additional points. First, in defense of SackSEER, don’t read the projections as predictions, but rather the most likely general range based on past precedent. For example, to knock the model for projecting “only” 36.4 sacks in his first five years for Von Miller is silly. It argued that he would be good and he is. Jerry Hughes, on the other hand…

That said, any model that leans too heavily on something as luck-dominated as sack totals is going to have trouble. I wonder if a better SackSEER could be constructed based on total pressure (sacks, hits, hurries).

Plax Wants Philly, Philly Should Want Plax

I find it hard to mount any case why the Eagles shouldn’t sign Plaxico Burress. Sure, he’ll be 35 by the time the season starts, and he’s certainly not a role model. But at this point I wouldn’t mind seeing Andy Reid sell a bit of his soul for better red zone production.

2011 was the first year since 2006 that the Eagles have even nudged above average in red zone touchdown percentage. And they haven’t been in the top ten since 2004. That’s a historic stretch of poor red zone play, and it spans three quarterbacks, two running backs, and two generations of wide receivers.

It’s clear that outside of LeSean McCoy, whatever’s going on down by the goalline isn’t working. The speed-beats-all mentality that has made the offense so explosive in the first 80 yards of the field isn’t getting it done where it counts. It’s obvious even by the play calling. Reid and Marty Mornhinweg have long since abandoned the normal offense in the red zone. They’ve resorted to tricking their way into a touchdown with shovels and screens.

The data proves this out. DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, despite game-breaking speed in the middle of the field, are both below average in scoring touchdowns per target and reception. Even at age 35, Burress is the opposite. He’s a touchdown machine.

With the Jets last year, Burress scored a touchdown on nearly 18 percent of all his receptions. That’s more than Calvin Johnson, and good enough for third in the NFL among receivers with at least 50 percent of their team’s offensive snaps. Eagles fans will remember Burress constantly beating one-on-one coverage in the end zone for Eli Manning, and he could do the same for Michael Vick.

Where all of the Eagles wide receivers become distractions at best and liabilities at worst down in the red zone, replacing one of them with Burress doesn’t just provide a different set of physical strengths (if so, Hank Baskett and Riley Cooper would have filled this role). Plaxico brings the experience of 63 career touchdowns — more than all of the Eagles current receivers combined.

Burress wants to be an Eagle. He did last year too, but the front office picked Steve Smith instead. Time to correct that mistake.

Photo from Getty.

Everyone's Favorite LB Proves His Athleticism

Tony Pauline, for Sports Illustrated:

Luke Kuechly, Boston College: Questions about Kuechly’s speed and athleticism preceded the combine. He answered his critics in dynamic fashion, running both of his 40s in the mid 4.5-second range. His vertical jump of 38-inches and broad jump of 10-feet, 3-inches graded among the better marks from today’s linebackers. He was smooth opening his hips in coverage drills and was able to get great depth on pass drops. Kuechly did not display a smooth change of direction and some will question his pursuit skills, but on the whole it was a great performance by the Boston College junior.

I’m confused. Kuechly’s worst combine drill yesterday was the bench press, and he was still sixth among linebackers on that one. Who exactly is going to “question his pursuit skills” at this point?

The new question of the day: can Kuechly play outside linebacker as well? If (when) the Eagles address middle linebacker in free agency, the answer will tell us whether he could still be a draft target.

Will Nate Allen Finally Break Out in 2012?

John Breitenbach, for Pro Football Focus:

Having said that, Allen’s performances late in the season can give Eagles fans hope going into 2012. Following that New England debacle, he graded positively in each of the last five games, amassing a grade of +7.2 in that span. Overall, he finished at +3.8, good enough for 15th in the league last year. He looks ready to break out if he can remain fully healthy in 2012.

Over the last two seasons, Nate Allen has had stretches of games where he’s looked like an above average starter with good coverage and acceptable tackling ability. In his third season, maintaining that level through all 16 games would be a big boost to the Eagles defense.

Also check out Breitenbach’s take on some potential low-cost veteran additions to compete for the other safety spot.

RG3 to Philly? It's Pretty Crazy

Heisman-winning quarterback and draft analyst man-crush Robert Griffin III met with the Eagles at the NFL Combine late last week, sparking a mini-resurgence of speculation (read: hope) that by some twist of fate RG3 could be coming to Philadelphia.

Jimmy Kempsi wrote, “it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see the Eagles make some sort of blockbuster trade to move up to 2 to get him.” He goes on to make some good points: Michael Vick will turn 32 before the season starts, his contract isn’t really for the full six years, and the cost of paying a first round quarterback isn’t prohibitive any more. Despite those reasons, there are still major barriers to bringing Griffin to the Eagles.

Let’s start with the fact that the Eagles are completely outgunned in trade negotiations. All indications are that the Rams are looking to sell out of the second overall selection. Do you know what it would take for the Eagles to even get into the conversation for that pick? According to the draft value chart, giving up the Eagles 2012 1st, two 2nd, 3rd, and 2013 1st round picks still leaves the team coming up slightly short.

For comparison, let’s take two of the teams cited most often in trade rumors: the Browns and the Redskins. Cleveland has the 4th and 22nd overall picks. Just those two selections are already worth more than the massive Eagles bounty described above. Former Eagles GM Tom Heckert definitely has the inside track on Griffin. Washington, meanwhile, could match Philly’s offer with just their 1st and 2nd round picks this year and 1st rounder next year.

You can draw comparisons with Vick today and Donovan McNabb in 2007, the year the Eagles drafted Kevin Kolb, but the cost is so much more prohibitive for Griffin. Using an early second round pick when you already have a starting quarterback is questionable, forfeiting almost your entire draft is prohibitive.

And that brings up the second major reason to shoot down any Griffin ideas: the opportunity cost is far too high. Giving up that many high picks would mean ignoring needs at a bunch of positions, including linebacker, defensive line, cornerback, and wide receiver. Given the general lack of young talent, especially on defense, the Eagles cannot afford to waste the opportunity to finally get a good, full draft.

Drafting Griffin, despite these concerns, would be writing the next year or two off. The Eagles front office would be admitting to the fans and — more importantly — a veteran group of players that they can’t win in 2012. They would be telling Michael Vick, who everyone hopes will work to improve himself this offseason, that he’s not really their franchise player. That could be a disaster.

What it comes down to is that the timing is off. Tommy Lawlor called the situation “awkward,” but it’s more than that. 2012 is shaping up to be a make-or-break year for more than just Andy Reid. Vick needs to get back to his 2010 form. DeSean Jackson, if he even accepts the franchise tag, could be gone after 2012. Veterans like Cullen Jenkins, Nnamdi Asomugha, Jason Babin, and Trent Cole may only have a year or two of high-level play left, and poor drafting has left the cupboard bare behind them.

Next year should answer a lot of questions about this team and the way it’s constructed. The Eagles could rebound and make a playoff run, in which case you will want a strong crop of young players in place to fill in the holes and keep up the momentum. Alternatively, if the Eagles flop there will be a NovaCare house cleaning like we haven’t seen since 1999. In that case, the team will be in a natural position to draft a new franchise quarterback and rebuild around him going forward.

Watching RG3 highlights is intoxicating, and I would love it if he ended up with the Eagles. But it’s not going to happen. Let’s just make that clear.

Photo from Getty.

Trent Edwards Means Nothing

Les Bowen:

It’s looking as if a quarterback won’t be a big priority for the Eagles in the April draft.

The team announced yesterday it had agreed to terms on a 1-year deal with former Buffalo starter Trent Edwards, who presumably will replace pending free-agent backup Vince Young. Given that 2010 fourth-round pick Mike Kafka is under contract and expected to return, that would use up all the roster slots for QBs behind starter Michael Vick, who will be 32 when the season starts.

I know we just played this game a few days ago, but signing a guy who has been out of football for a full year tells me nothing about the Eagles plans for quarterback this offseason. Bowen did qualify this intro later on, but for all discerning fans out there, it’s a nice test case of when not to buy into the immediate surface-level story.

The real question is whether Mike Kafka is any good, and if he really is going to compete with Edwards, that answer is (still) no.

Pity the Child

Jimmy Kempski and his wife had a baby girl yesterday:

When they brought me in for the C section, you’re basically behind a curtain, sitting by your wife’s head.  You can’t actually see the operation (nor would you want to do), and there’s so much going on that you barely even notice the doctors performing it.  And so, when they pulled the baby out and I could hear her “whaaaaaaah!” for the first time, such a surreal and awesome moment, really just about the most natural high you can experience, I looked up and realized that the first person to ever hold my newborn baby was…

A Giants fan.

No word yet on whether Joselia Hanson Kempski thinks the second Super Bowl win cements Eli Manning’s status as “elite.”

The Case Against Re-signing Evan Mathis

Due to his Twitter and Reddit participation, Evan Mathis has become something of a unifying force for fan goodwill on the Internet. Honestly, I’m not sure there’s anything Eagles fans online agree about more than that Mathis must be retained.

At the risk of setting off a mini-revolt from those legions of supporters, I wonder if the enthusiasm has gotten a bit out of control. Is Mathis really as valuable as everyone says? There’s at least circumstantial evidence that points in the opposite direction.

First, we should remember that only a year ago, Mathis was completely unknown. With the Panthers and Bengals from 2007 to 2010, he started only seven games. He wasn’t a highly-valued free agent, just a veteran journeyman, and the Eagles signed him at the end of August last season largely because of Danny Watkins’s surprising holdout. If a bunch of options at right tackle, like Ryan Harris and Winston Justice, hadn’t failed so miserably, Mathis might not even have been promoted to the starting lineup.

Now, none of that on its own is damning. Players rise and fall over the course of their careers. Mathis is a good fit for Howard Mudd’s system, and his rapid offseason body change may have contributed to his revitalized prospects. Still, we must wonder whether a career year at age 30 is really indicative of future top performance.

The other question, for which I don’t have any conclusive answer, remains: was Mathis as good last year as many people thought? I’m not trying to take anything away from what was clearly a solid season. Mathis provided stability to an offensive line that desperately needed it and had good results despite sharing the middle with two rookies.

But at the same time, former NFL linemen have said that left guard is one of the easier line positions. Mathis manned that side with Jason Peters, a truly dominant force, and yet runs to the left tackle netted the third-worst mark in the league, according to Football Outsiders. When Todd Herremans lined up in that spot, directional rushing to the left was alwasy a major strength. In 2011 it became a mixed bag.

Furthermore, Mathis just never passed the eye test that a supposedly top-five-type guard might. He gave up few negative plays, but I also never found myself saying “wow” after one of his highlights. With Todd Herremans and Shawn Andrews in recent years, the Eagles have had guys on the interior that could lay claim to the “dominant” descriptor. As solid as Mathis was, to my eyes he was never that.

All of this is not to say the team absolutely shouldn’t resign Mathis. I’m actually in favor of that move in theory. But if he has other offers for significant money, would the Eagles really be wise to get into a bidding war for his services? I think not.

Photo from Getty.