Training Days With Luke Kuechly

Sheil Kapadia:

Essentially, Kuechly runs through a mini-combine on a daily basis. And he’s not alone. While there are currently 30 prospects training at IMG Academy, there are 300-plus training around the country. The combine presents a series of predictable tests. It’s the job of agents, trainers, coaches and advisers to make sure there are no surprises, that the prospects know exactly what they’re being asked to do when the spotlight’s on them.

Great breakdown of a combine trainee’s daily schedule. Boston College’s Luke Kuechly makes almost too much sense for the Eagles in the middle of the first round.

Extend LeSean McCoy's Contract Already

One of the most worrisome characteristics of Eagles front office in the last couple of years has been its seeming reluctance to hand out early contract extensions to their young players.

Now, there have been extenuating circumstances. For starters, the drafting has been poor overall, so there haven’t been many players since 2008 that have been worth extending. Additionally, the collective bargaining agreement drama delayed some contract talks.

However, the Eagles now have three young offensive stars who are/should have been prime candidates for extensions. DeSean Jackson, obviously, is the most urgent name. He’s scheduled to be a free agent in just a few weeks and the team is reportedly far apart in negotiations. Perhaps Jackson has been asking for a salary that’s too high, but in any case this could be a failure the Eagles front office hasn’t seen since Jeremiah Trotter left after the 2001 season.

On the flip side, Jeremy Maclin still has two years on his deal, so it’s not quite an emergency for him. If the Eagles are still operating with the same principles they did a few years back, though, he would be a prime candidate for a below-market value extension this offseason.

The middle case is LeSean McCoy, the Eagles All-Pro running back, who is about to enter the final year of his rookie contract. An extension with McCoy has to happen as soon as possible, lest the Eagles risk another DeSean situation. If an extension is worked out, we may be able to write off that problem as one special to, if not created by, Jackson.

Besides, McCoy has said publicly that he doesn’t want to end up like DeSean:

“Let me be honest with you, I never want to be in that situation,” McCoy said. “Everybody’s situation is different. [An extension] would be a blessing if that happened because I don’t want to go anywhere else or play anywhere else. I love it here. I’m a Pennsylvania guy – from high school to college to here.”

(Read what you will into McCoy twice firing and and re-hiring Drew Rosenhaus during the season.)

Still, the Eagles have already hurt themselves by failing to lock up McCoy a year ago. Back in October, I wrote about what that potential contract could look like. Here, again, are the most recent running back deals:

2011- Chris Johnson (25): 6 years, $55 million, $30 million guaranteed
2011- Adrian Peterson (26): 7 years, $96 million, $36 million guaranteed
2011- Frank Gore (28): 4 years, $26 million, $14 million guaranteed
2011- DeAngelo Williams (28): 5 years, $43 million, $21 million guaranteed
2010- Jamaal Charles (24): 6 years, $28 million, $10 million guaranteed
2009- Maurice Jones-Drew (24): 5 years, $31 million, $18 million guaranteed
2008- Steven Jackson (25): 6 years, $45 million, $21 million guaranteed
2008- Michael Turner (26): 6 years, $35 million, $15 million guaranteed

At the time I suggested McCoy’s production put him in line for a similar deal to the one signed by Jamaal Charles, who had comparable stats through his first three seasons. However, McCoy’s monster 2011 dwarfs Charles’s top production so far. That one year still doesn’t get him up to Peterson-Johnson stratosphere, but I’d be surprised if isn’t looking more at the Jones-Drew range.

A complicating factor is the pending free agency status of Ray Rice and Matt Forte. Both young, complete running backs are likely candidates for long term extensions in the coming weeks. The Eagles and McCoy may choose to wait until the running back market is set by those players before getting serious about negotiations.

It’s not ideal, given the opportunity the Eagles had to lock him up at a lower rate, but as long as a contract extension happens this offseason I don’t think any fans will complain.

Photo from Getty.

Against the Grain

Tommy Lawlor:

Should Andy Reid embrace Super Bowl talk? I don’t mean go all Rex Ryan and start talking about how we’re the best and definitely will win the SB. I’m talking more about openly using the phrase “Super Bowl” when discussing the season and goals…

Normally I don’t think this would be smart, but since Reid is going to be under big pressure this year…could this actually be smart? Rather than ignore the obvious, embrace it. Reid isn’t on a Super Bowl or bust mandate, but he’s not far off from that if you read between the lines of Jeff Lurie’s PC.

Counter-intuitive, but I like it. Perhaps a slightly better way would be to have Michael Vick and other team leaders spread the “Win one for the Gipper” message, instead of having it come from the top down. The players really seem to genuinely like and respect Reid, so a fiery campaign to prove he’s worth keeping could motivate everyone.

That said, if he pushes win-now mode hard and still finds himself with a losing record down the stretch, Reid could be out before Christmas.

Michael Vick: Under Pressure

I don’t think anyone (with the possible exception of Andy Reid) was shocked when Juan Castillo didn’t work out on defense. But nearly everyone was surprised at just how far Michael Vick regressed from his star season in 2010.

The big problem Vick had was simply turnovers. After posting zero interceptions through his first eight games the previous season, Vick was picked off 14 times in 13 games in 2011. That’s not nearly good enough if the Eagles want to rebound and make a run into the playoffs next year.

So let’s go a little deeper to try to understand some of Vick’s interception woes, using some stats from Pro Football Focus. Today I want to split Vick’s plays into two categories: regular and under pressure.

Let’s look at his non-pressured stats first. When not threatened by sacks or hits, Vick completed 69 percent of his passes, good enough for 8th-best among the 24 quarterbacks who took at least 50 percent of their team’s offensive snaps. That completion rate jumps to 76 percent and 6th-best when you don’t count drops against him.

As to interceptions, Vick was slightly below average, but not by much. He was 15th out of 24, with an interception rate of 2.5 percent. For reference, Eli Manning was 14th with 2.4 percent, and Drew Brees was 11th with 2.1 percent.

Overall, Vick showed room for improvement, but no big problems when he wasn’t pressured. When he had defenders in his face, however, Vick’s performance was more of a mixed bag.

On one hand, he had the 5th-highest touchdown rate and the 2nd-lowest sack rate among those 24 quarterbacks. With only 11.6 percent of all pressured dropbacks turned into sacks, Vick’s famed elusiveness served him well avoiding a big loss.

However, Vick completed only 42 percent his passes under pressure, which ranks 18th. Worse, 4.9 percent of his passes were intercepted, beating only Matt Hasselbeck, Tarvaris Jackson, Rex Grossman, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. (Matt Ryan scored about average, at 3.5 percent, while Andy Dalton, Aaron Rodgers, and Sam Bradford were blemish-free.)

There are two takeaways from this information. One is relatively straightforward: Vick needs to handle the pressure better, even take a few more sacks rather than expose himself to interceptions. The rookie Dalton, who threw zero interceptions under pressure, also threw the ball away in those situations more than anyone else in the league. Vick could learn something from that example.

But the second takeaway is more nuanced. For the last two seasons, Vick has been under pressure more than nearly any other quarterback. Last year he ranked first overall with pressure in 39.8 percent of his dropbacks. In 2010 he was second, with 41.8 percent.

Given the improvement along the offensive line year-over-year, it’s likely that this has more to do with Vick than his blockers. Football Outsiders sack timing stats show that more than half of his sacks take longer than three seconds, which partially can be attributed to avoiding defenders, but also results from his tendency to hold on to the ball too long.

Vick is a playmaker when he scrambles around — his touchdown rate is actually higher with pressure than without. But avoiding sacks and trying to score big also led him to turn the ball over far too much.

Perhaps Reid and Marty Mornhinweg should focus on teaching Vick to avoid more of those situations by making pre-snap reads and quick decisions about where to go with the football. If DeSean Jackson returns, there will still be plenty of opportunities to create big plays, even without dancing around in backfield. If he doesn’t become more consistent and less turnover-prone, Vick will continue to be a liablity going forward.

Photo from Getty.

Yes, Michael Vick can be ELIte

Les Bowen:

That last part was the most important; it was what separated the Giants from, say, the 49ers. Eli was sacked 11 times in the playoffs - more than any other quarterback. He still completed 65 percent of his passes, threw for nine touchdowns and was intercepted exactly once. His QB rating was 103.3. He averaged 304.8 passing yards per game.

Good luck copying that “blueprint,” NFL GMs. And Eagles fans, do you really see Michael Vick throwing for nine touchdowns and one interception?

To be fair, Vick had 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions through his first eight games last season. So yes, I have seen it happen. Not only that, but just a year ago Eli Manning threw for a league-leading 25 interceptions.

Vick has an important offseason ahead of him, but there’s no reason to think he can’t rebound from 2011.

The Giants Won the Super Bowl

… with this touchdown.

Dawkins Considering Retirement

Paul Domowitch:

Brian Dawkins said yesterday that he hasn’t yet made a decision on whether he wants to play a 17th NFL season.

The 38-year-old, nine-time Pro Bowl safety, who has played the last three seasons in Denver after leaving the Eagles as a free agent in 2009, missed four of the Broncos’ last five games, including both of their playoff games, with a neck injury. He will be a free agent in March.

The Eagles defense still hasn’t recovered from losing Dawkins and Jim Johnson after the 2008 season. Those were good times.

Answering the DeSean Jackson Question

Sam Lynch’s post at Iggles Blitz provides a good framework for looking at the DeSean Jackson question. It’s important to note, as he does, that so much of your opinion is based on what you think about Jackson.

I’ve explored that topic a few times, most notably here. I’ll stick with the assessment I made then of DeSean’s abilities:

Perhaps Jackson is just a unique type of player. Rather than referring to him as a “true” top wide receiver, we should just accept that he’s a “non-typical” #1. When we look at the whole picture, it’s clear he’s doing something different — even if the stats are split as to what exactly that means.

To me, Jackson is a special player, and a “number one wide receiver” in this offense.

With that out there, I want to look at this issue from the opposite direction that Sam did. What are the potential end-game states for the Eagles-DeSean standoff?

The Eagles use the franchise tag on DeSean, presumably don’t pursue a free agent replacement:

1. Jackson eventually signs the offer, even after missing some training camp (who cares?). He plays out a one year deal at $9.5 million and we put everything off for a year. This is a perfectly acceptable option to my mind and one that the wide receiver has actually said he wouldn’t have a problem with.

2. Jackson refuses to sign the offer, misses some training camp, but the hardball talk about trades and a lost season eventually leads to a new long-term contract. This is ideal.

3. Jackson refuses to sign the offer, forces a trade. The Eagles leverage in this will be low, so they won’t able to get fair value — although they’ll have more than if they let him walk.

4. Jackson refuses to sign, no trade, he misses the season. The parable of Vincent Jackson makes this an unlikely result.

The Eagles don’t use the franchise tag on DeSean:

5. The Eagles pounce on a free agent wideout to replace Jackson. There are three, maybe four free agent receivers who you can argue would be as good (or better in some areas) as Jackson. This scenario is attractive for its relative certainty, since there’s no need to wait at the mercy of Jackson. However, you probably have to pay about the same amount (or more) as you would for Jackson, so there’s not much upside.

6. The Eagles let the market play out, hope Jackson doesn’t get the offer he wants and comes back. High risk, high reward.

7. Forget wide receiver entirely and hope Jeremy Maclin can take over. Use a high draft pick better spent on a linebacker to try to find Jackson replacement. Ugh.

Options 1, 2, and 5 would all be good outcomes for 2012. At least 3 nets you something in a trade. 4 and 7 are awful, and hopefully unlikely. 6 is basically a mixed strategy of 1 and 7.

All told, I would franchise DeSean and take it from there. Letting him hit the free agent market seems sub-optimal from a number of areas, unless there’s a receiver you’re confident you can sign who’s also an improvement on Jackson. I doubt those two requirements are fulfilled.

There’s an outside chance Jackson has been telling the truth with regard to not minding the franchise tag. If not, you play hardball but engage in negotiations after the wide receiver market is more clearly set by one or two free agent deals. Worst case scenario you get something back in a trade.

That’s what I would do, anyway. Of course, I’d also have struck a deal with DeSean six months ago. So maybe, just maybe, the Eagles front office isn’t actually listening to me.

Photo from Getty.