The Inadequacy of Opponent Adjustments

Semi-annual blogger Derek Sarley:

VOA is a measure of how well a team has played and DVOA corrects for opponents, so you can throw out any concerns about strength of schedule and say things like “DVOA proves the Eagles have the league’s twelfth-best defense, even if you claim they didn’t play very many teams that were any good.”

Except you can’t. DVOA says nothing of the kind, as we can best demonstrate with a couple of charts. Here’s the first one, plotting this season’s DVOAs against VOAs:

Long story short, opponent adjustments are nice, especially for comparing teams quickly. But DVOA and its ilk will never be able to provide a complete understanding of a single team or unit. Even advanced stats need context.

Washburn and Spagnuolo

Peter King:

Someone Who Knows told me a major roadblock to Steve Spagnuolo taking the defensive coordinator job in Philadelphia was the presence of very strong personality Jim Washburn on the defensive line.

This doesn’t surprise me. The Wide Nine was always a red herring in talks about whether a new coordinator would be compatible with Washburn. The bigger issue is that a new coordinator would have to cede all control of the line to his supposed underling. Remember, Washburn doesn’t take orders from anyone.

'Yes, But in Some Cases No.'

Jeff McLane:

Is there any correlation between size and regular-season success? Yes, but in some cases no.

Let me summarize this article for you:

What if the problem on defense is because the Eagles draft small players? Could it be? Maybe, if I repeat the question enough. They are undoubtedly small, though. Well, unless you compare the Eagles to similar defenses. But I’ll call them tiny anyway. Does it matter? This small sample size says yes. But not this slightly larger group. Forget it, I’m just going to cherry pick some stats that support my argument.

'We Can Just Let Him Walk'

Jason Wilde, for ESPN Milwaukee:

“You look at it now, even though they’re saying that stuff, before the season and throughout the whole offseason, everybody had that attitude that they could just replace me, that I was just another player. ‘We can just let him walk,’” Jenkins said in a telephone interview Wednesday afternoon. “Certain players spoke out publicly about guys they hoped they’d bring back, but back then you didn’t hear anybody say too much about me. So I don’t pay it too much attention.”

The Packers’ loss was the Eagles’ gain. I’ll be surprised if the Eagles choose to cut Jenkins just so they don’t have to pay him the $5 million roster bonus in March.

Steve Spagnuolo and a Franchise on the Decline

Just a few weeks ago, Jeffrey Lurie stood behind the podium and argued that retaining Andy Reid representedthe best chance for the Eagles to win a Super Bowl next season. But as Steve Spagnuolo, the odds-on favorite to replace Juan Castillo, chose New Orleans instead, that wisdom comes into doubt.

Regardless of playoff results, Lurie was right when he said that the true class of the NFC is represented by the Packers and Saints. Everyone else is playing catch up. And on a day when the best defensive coordinator on the market picked the Saints instead of the Eagles, Reid’s team looks like it’s only losing ground.

Let’s be clear. Regardless of the length or seriousness of the talks between him and the Eagles front office, Spagnuolo knew what he’d be getting into in Philadelphia. He knows Reid, the front office, the situation on defense, probably better than he did the Saints job or any other. The fact that he avoided returning to Philly doesn’t bode well for the Eagles organizational health.

I would say that Spagnuolo’s preference to stay away represents a certain canary-in-the-coal-mine warning, but we already had that last year when the Reid fell back to Juan “Plan H” Castillo. The head coach has had success luring older, mercenary-type assistants to the staff in the last two years. Bobby April, Jim Washburn, Howard Mudd have all had positive impacts on the team. But Reid has now struck out twice (three times if you count McDermott) in trying to bring an experienced veteran in to run the defense.

Lets go back to the Packers and Saints for a moment and their two great offensive-minded head coaches in Mike McCarthy and Sean Payton, not unlike Andy Reid. Both have utilized “defensive head coaches” to win a Super Bowl — Dom Capers and Gregg Williams. Now Steve Spagnuolo will slide into the spot in New Orleans vacated by Williams.

The Eagles used to have a defensive head coach in Jim Johnson. Reid knew his limitations and almost won a Super Bowl with Johnson dialing up blitzes independently from his oversight. Payton and McCarthy have stolen from that playbook, but Reid’s original copy is gathering dust in a closet somewhere.

When Reid announces next week that his first choice at defensive coordinator was always bringing back Castillo, not only will he be lying, but it will be an example of how far he’s fallen from the realm of elite NFL coaches, as well as the latest indictment of an organization stuck in neutral.

Perhaps next season will provide a rebound playoff year, and both Reid and Howie Roseman will refurbish their reputations. But sitting here right now, it’s tough to be anything but pessimistic about the future of this franchise.

Photo from Getty.

Trot & T.O.

Les Bowen at his best:

Trot was a leader in the locker room, and the unquestioned leader of the forces trying to get Owens restored to the active roster. He didn’t defend the things T.O. had done, but he seemed to think McNabb ought to just ignore the persistent undermining of his authority and leadership, because, hey, T.O. was a dominant player — probably THE most dominant player physically I’ve ever covered, in any sport — and the Eagles needed him to get back to the Super Bowl.

Football is a team game, though, the Daily News has learned, and you really don’t win the Super Bowl with a superstar wideout trying to tear down your quarterback. Reid later told me one of his biggest regrets was that he let that situation fester too long, tolerated too much. I eventually concluded McNabb was never viewed quite the same way again by his teammates.

Today, I think maybe Trot finally understands what the big deal was, why you don’t clasp a viper to your bosom, or whatever that passage in the bible says.

The whole post is definitely worth reading.

Is the Wide Nine to Blame for Poor Run Defense?

Since I’m worried that these may be some of the Eagles final days with Jim Washburn as defensive line coach, now is as good a time as any to analyze his impact on the defensive line. A few days ago I showed how Washburn formed an elite pass rush.

Today, let’s look at the run defense.

During the season the Wide Nine technique was often scapegoated for poor run defense. While no one doubted that the Eagles linebackers were awful, many also alleged that Washburn’s scheming put too much pressure on those overmatched LBs.

To that end, it’s worth examining the defensive line to see how much it contributed to the problem, if at all.

Football Outsiders numbers suggest that, if anything, the line was the only thing working correctly against the run. While they place the Eagles squarely in the middle of the league on adjusted line yards, the defensive line was third-best in the NFL at both power success (denying short yardage runs) and stuffed percentage (runs stopped behind the line of scrimmage). The bigger problems appeared in second level and open field yards, which are generally the responsibility of the linebackers and safeties.

But let’s look more specifically, player by player. Pro Football Focus has the numbers there:

At defensive end, I don’t see much cause for blaming Washburn. Both Trent Cole and Darryl Tapp improved on their tackle and stop percentages in 2011. Juqua Parker dropped off, but there’s little reason to think that was because of the Wide Nine.

Jason Babin does come out looking pretty bad here. Among defensive ends with at least 25 percent of their team’s run snaps, Babin ranked near the bottom — 51st — in stop rate. Unlike Cole, Babin isn’t a complete player. But if he can continue to put up big sack numbers, it won’t really matter.

The two main holdovers from 2010, Mike Patterson and Trevor Laws, both improved against the run last year. Broderick Bunkley helped Denver reach the second round of the playoffs, but the additions of Derek Landri and Cullen Jenkins more than made up for that loss.

Overall, I just don’t see any merit to the arguments that blame poor run defense in Jim Washburn and the front four. All signs point to the putrid tacklers playing behind them, not the line itself.

The Never-Ending Coaching Search

It was a year ago this week that Andy Reid fired Sean McDermott and kicked off a league-wide search that culminated in the underwhelming and, frankly, absurd promotion of Juan Castillo to defensive coordinator. One year later, the Eagles are supposedly conducting another search, but signs increasingly point to this one being bungled as well.

While Reid seems reluctant to demote or fire Castillo until his replacement is ready to go, obvious front runner Steve Spagnuolo is already interviewing with other teams. Meanwhile, Marty Mornhinweg has resumed interviews for his second head coaching opportunity, with Indianapolis a potential fit. Within a week, the Eagles could easily see both their current offensive coordinator and best prospective defensive coordinator slip through their fingers.

It’s unclear where that would leave the Eagles. Is there a Plan B on defense that doesn’t involve retaining Castillo? Or would they switch him over to a job he is equally unqualified for — offensive coordinator? Maybe long time wide receivers coach David Culley, who’s never gotten any interest from other teams, is ready to take over on offense, or maybe Reid could convince Brad Childress to return, but neither of those are slam dunk hires either.

Going into the offseason, the plan to turn around this team wasn’t rocket science. Step one: hire a better, more experienced defensive coordinator. Step two: draft/sign some linebackers. Step three: help Michael Vick get back in track. In recent days, with the mismanaged wooing of Spagnuolo, the departure of college scouting head Ryan Grigson, and the potential loss of Mornhinweg, the Eagles may have suffered setbacks to all three goals.

Perhaps this speculation is too early. Many of these things are still up in the air, and could land in the Eagles favor before long. But if the worst does come to pass, I wonder how resilient and resourceful Reid can be. He outright failed a year ago when he fell back to Castillo. Here’s hoping he can do better the second time around.

Photo from Getty.