Farewell Kevin Kolb, We Hardly Knew You

Kevin Kolb Philadelphia Eagles Trade Era

Perhaps the strangest thing about the Kevin Kolb era was that it never came to pass.

Of course, at first we didn’t see him coming. It’s easy to forget the shock and dismay that accompanied Kolb’s first day as an Eagle. Drafting him upset the entire foundation upon which Andy Reid had run the franchise the previous eight years. Reid and Donovan McNabb, joined at the hip through their NFC Championship Game losses and endless boring press conferences, defined the Eagles years from 1999 to 2006. Among the fans, there was little daylight between the two.

McNabb and Reid were the past, present, and future of the Eagles — until April 28, 2007. Suddenly, that narrative broke. Commentators like to point out that McNabb was booed on draft day. The fan base was certainly split back then. But no pick has met with such immediate and overwhelming… confusion. Who was this no-name quarterback from Houston? Why not get a player who can start immediately? How long until he takes over?

And so began the countdown. The confused countdown to an era that never began.

No player in Eagles history has so radically altered the conversation around the team while achieving so little on the field. Kolb changed the entire dynamic. In his second year he inched closer to the starting job. A false start in Baltimore in 2008, followed by a huge step forward in 2009, with impressive spot starts against the Saints and Chiefs that instilled major confidence in Kolb from the fans.

As we rolled into 2010, the debate was raging, but the move was fait accompli. The Eagles traded McNabb to the Redskins to cause ever more drama and we looked to the shining example of Aaron Rodgers to guide the Eagles new leader. Finally, the Kolb era had begun.

Until… it didn’t.

Kolb threw seven passes before Clay Matthews slammed his head into the ground. Seven passes was all the chance he ever got. Michael Vick strode in, almost saved the game against Green Bay, then expanded upon his newfound passing skills in the win at Detroit. On September 21, Reid named Vick the starter. That was it. The rest is epilogue: the Vick era, an exciting new future to contemplate.

For three years Kolb waited for his turn, always just around the next bend. He finally got his chance — foiled. If not for the cruel twists of fate, his rightful time as Eagles leader should have begun in 2010 and continued for at least as long as McNabb. Kolb’s time was incomplete, his promise as an Eagle unfulfilled. Now, as he jets across the country to Arizona, I want to understand the Kolb era. I want resolution, but I can’t find it.

Unless that was the Kolb era. The waiting, the countdown, the drama, the injuries — that certainly wasn’t about McNabb, nor was it yet about Vick. The McNabb years, as I see them now, describe a rise into the NFL elite, a turnaround that peaked with one Super Bowl shot. And Vick’s time is only just beginning. But the Kolb era represents all of the unfulfilled promise in between.

For the last four years the Eagles have always been one year away from the Super Bowl. Fundamentally flawed young teams that showed tremendous potential, but could never capitalize on slivers of opportunity: a confusing countdown that never ended. Rationalization and hope. Ultimately, a brief footnote in the team’s long history.

On one hand Kolb never got his shot. But on the other, he defined the Eagles better than anyone else during his time in Philadelphia. We just couldn’t see it until he was walking out the door.

Photo from Getty.

Finally! Eagles Trade Kolb for DRC, 2nd Rd. Pick

Last year, when the Eagles traded Donovan McNabb, I was shocked. Now I’m just relieved. Took long enough.

And not sure why everyone’s so surprised the Eagles could get a second round pick with Rodgers-Cromartie. The Cardinals had to bid against fair market value. Young, talented, potential franchise quarterbacks don’t come cheap.

Adam Caplan called it first. Arizona handed Kolb a five-year extension for over $63 million with over $20 million guaranteed. Lucky guy.

I’ll be back later with more.

Kolb Watch: Free Agency Third Day Live Blog

Andy Reid Jeff McLane Lehigh

Today’s the day. I think. The final hurdle has to be Kevin Kolb’s new contract. Hopefully that will get settled shortly. My prediction, once again, is Kolb for Rodgers-Cromartie + Arizona’s 2012 2nd round pick + another conditional middle round pick.

Can’t promise the same kind of strange happenings as yesterday, but hit it here for updates as we go along.

9:54 am - Eagles sign Jason Babin to a 5-year deal (Jay Glazer), worth $28 million (Jim Wyatt). There’s your new defensive end. However, as Sam Lynch points out, this is probably a front-loaded deal. No one should expect Babin to still be on the team in 2015, when he’ll be 36.

Time to see if Babin just had a fluke season or if Jim Washburn really discovered his talent.

2:13 pm - Looking more and more like the Kolb deal will go down today. Howard Eskin confirmed my speculation that the Cardinals are working on his contract extension. Adam Caplan also tweeted that the two sides have made “substantial progress in recent hours.”

Photo: “Chasing Andy” from and of Jeff McLane.

Notes on a Bizarre, Boring Start to Free Agency

Donovan McNabb Washington Redskins Trade 2011 NFL Free Agency

So Kevin Kolb didn’t fly out the door on Tuesday at 10:01 am. Looks like it will take at least another day to iron out the details. While the smart money is still on Kolb ending up in Arizona, both the Cardinals and Eagles seem to be doing some last minute maneuvering for leverage.

Some reporters have argued that the Eagles are losing leverage as potential suitors, like Seattle, move on other options. I don’t agree. The Eagles may be losing the ability to jack up the price even higher, but Kolb’s value seems fairly set based on previous trades. The Eagles main leverage is derived from their ability to simply reject any deal and keep Kolb as an inexpensive backup, as well as Arizona’s obvious need for a legitimate long term answer at quarterback. None of critical facts have changed.

* * *

Early yesterday morning I published a post ranking the Eagles free agents based on how likely they were to return. That is now moot.

Jonathan Tamari reports from an extra anonymous source that the Eagles won’t resign any of their free agents:

The Eagles will not pursue any of their own free agents, including starters such as Stewart Bradley, Quintin Mikell and Sav Rocca and backup running back Jerome Harrison, the Inquirer has learned.

As I said yesterday, this move is surprising, but not particularly shocking. None of the Eagles free agents were brilliant, must-keep stars. The only two guys I said even had a 50 percent chance or more of returning were Stewart Bradley and Sav Rocca. Both of those players would only have been convenient to resign. There are other free agents out there with at least equal talent.

* * *

With that said, I hope the front office grabs some veteran competition at some of these spots like linebacker. The offense has Super Bowl talent. Would hate to see mistakes by rookies cost them.

* * *

This thought probably deserves a full post, but I think we’re just now seeing the full impact of Bobby April, special teams ace. It’s not a coincidence that one year after April arrived both Akers and Rocca are out and the Eagles picked up both the top rookie kicker and top rookie punter (arguably) to replace them.

* * *

I’m excited for Noel Devine. The Eagles have had plenty of success with pass-catching, punt-returning, fun-sized speed demons

* * *

As I write this, Donovan McNabb is on the verge of being traded to the Vikings for a 6th round pick in 2012 and another 6th in 2012. Wow.

If the Cardinals are looking for a reason not to deal for Kolb, this is it. Andy Reid knows when to sell high on quarterbacks.

Photo from Getty.

Kolb Watch: Free Agency 1st Day Open Thread!

Today may be the last day that Kevin Kolb, the blog’s final namesake, is still an Eagle.

*single tear*

I’ll try to update as the rumors start to fly. You can also follow my minute to minute updates on Twitter. Jump right into the comment open thread though!

10:26 am - Eagles agree to terms with UDFAs WR Perry Baker, WR DeAndre Brown, RB Graig Cooper, P Chas Henry, QB Jerrod Johnson, DT Ced Thornton, LB Brandon Peguese, WR Terrance Turner and TE Martell Webb (According to @Eagles).

Some of these names were already reported. Henry is new though, I remember him as a good, consistent punter while at Florida. Perhaps I should have downgraded Rocca’s chances to return…

11:42 am - Michael Vick talked to the media and mentioned that DeSean Jackson “has some personal decisions he has to make” before reporting to camp (Source). Could he be considering a holdout? I bet Banner is on the phone right now with DeSean’s agent, reassuring them that an extension is a top priority.

5:35 pm - Jonathan Tamari for the Inquirer says “The Eagles will not pursue any of their own free agents.” He doesn’t mention his source, but he sounds very confident. If this is true, it’s certainly surprising. I thought they’d bring back at least a couple of their own guys.

However, I can’t say I’m totally shocked. Looking at the list again, there are no players who are guys the Eagles “have to sign.” I only listed Bradley and Rocca as having a greater than 50 percent chance of returning, and both of those were a matter of convenience, rather than need. The Eagles should have little problem finding guys of equal talent on the open market.

Which Eagles Free Agents Will Be Back in 2011?

Jerome Harrison Philadelphia Eagles Free Agent 2011

The Eagles have 15 players who just became free agents. Some of them will return, but most will probably move on. Who will still be around when training camp starts later this week? Let’s break down their chances, from least likely to most likely:

0% — Antoine Harris, Bobby McCray, Reggie Wells: Who? I bet there aren’t more than a handful of fans who even remembered these guys were still on the team. I certainly forgot.

5% — Ernie Sims, Ellis Hobbs: Both short term rentals were acquired for middle round draft picks, and neither worked out. No reason to bring them back unless you really can’t find anyone else.

10% — Quintin Mikell, David Akers: Q had a good run here, and he still plays at a high level. But you just don’t draft two safeties in the second round and then give a soon-to-be 31-year-old a new contract. His leadership will be missed. Similar situation for Akers. Can’t last once your successor comes along.

20% — Max Jean-Gilles, Nick Cole, Omar Gaither, Akeem Jordan, Dimitri Patterson: Five young guys who each could return in the right circumstance as a backup and special team contributor, but their spots have already been filled by younger players with more upside. Time to move on.

35% — Jerome Harrison: Coming to the Eagles midway through the season, Harrison provided a spark on offense and was a huge boost over the previous backup running back, Mike Bell. I wouldn’t mind having him back, and neither would the Eagles, but I wonder if there are better fits out there for both parties. Harrison certainly would like a chance to start, if he can find the right opportunity.

60% — Stewart Bradley: With the rest of the linebacker corps young and unproven, the Eagles need at least one veteran presence. Bradley would be the logical choice, even for a one year contract. And yet the Eagles don’t seem all that interested in bringing #55 back. He might command more from another team on the open market, and there are other stopgap solutions (the only type of linebacker Andy Reid has ever seen) all over free agency.

85% — Sav Rocca: 2010 was quite possibly the Aussie’s best year yet as a punter. With no other plan in place, it would be surprising to see the Eagles let him walk.

Let me know if you disagree. And, as updates come flying in on Tuesday, join me in the comment section to sound off on the latest rumors and news.

Photo from Getty.

The Eagles Should Demand More For Kevin Kolb

Kevin Kolb Philadelphia Eagles Trade Cardinals

You may have caught some of the recent hubbub about the likely Kevin Kolb to Arizona trade, about whether or not the Eagles could get anything more than Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie straight up for Kolb.

I think the answer is clear that yes, the Eagles should expect more for Kolb in any trade. My evidence comes from a post I wrote back in April: Assessing Kevin Kolb’s NFL Draft Trade Value.

In that piece I looked at trades from the past three years that involved draft picks and players. It allowed us to see what each player was worth in equivalent pick value. As I noted then, Kolb should likely fall in the late first round territory. That’s what the Eagles should demand for him given the market.

However, it is slightly more complicated because any picks the Eagles would receive would be one year out. Typically, those picks are devalued by one round for each year in the future. That’s why many teams trade next year’s first round pick for another team’s second rounder this year. Getting a player like Rodgers-Cromartie is slightly easier, because he is worth present value. But the cornerback is not worth a first round pick on his own - unless you think the Eagles would overpay even more for him then the Oakland Raiders did for DeAngelo Hall in 2008.

Let’s generously estimate Rodgers-Cromartie’s value at a second round pick. The median second round pick is worth 420 points this year. That leaves another 200 or so points that the Eagles would need to receive as fair value for Kolb. Assuming that added value came in the form of 2012 picks, the Eagles could ask for the equivalent of another second rounder from the Cardinals (discounting for one year in the future).

By this logic, the minimum the Eagles should accept from the Cardinals would be Rodgers-Cromartie and their 2012 second round pick. However, I could easily see the Eagles getting more. If they only value Rodgers-Cromartie as a third round pick, for example, the Cards would likely have to give up their first rounder instead.

With a dearth of young, quality quarterbacks available, Kolb is worth a hefty premium. The Cardinals, or any other team that comes calling, should expect to pay handsomely to get him.

Who Are the Eagles' Free Agent Options at DE?

Ray Edwards Minnesota Vikings 2011 NFL Free Agency

Finally, we can see daylight.

Optimism abounds in the NFL world as the lockout looks to be in its final days. And that means free agency is just around the corner - possibly as soon as this weekend. In preparation for that, we should take a second look at some of the Eagles potential free agent targets.

As I said last week, I really think that defensive end will be the major priority, in light of Brandon Graham’s microfracture surgery. Cornerback is arguably a bigger hole to fill, but it seems likely that the position could be filled as part of the Kolb trade.

When looking at the Eagles defensive end targets, there are really three potential names that stand out:

Jason Babin - The most well known among Eagles fans, Babin had a mediocre season as a backup in 2009 in Philly. Since he was unproductive and already over 30, there wasn’t much discussion about keeping him around. Yet Babin went to the Titans and suddenly registered 12.5 sacks, more than his three previous seasons combined. Babin is definitely the least sexy acquisition the Eagles could make, due to his one-year wonder potential and advanced age.

Charles Johnson - Last year was a breakout year for Johnson, who took over as the primary pass rusher in Carolina after Julius Peppers jetted off to Chicago. Johnson is only 25, so he will require a bigger, long term investment than Babin. However, if he can sustain his production from last season, Johnson could be the solution long term.

Ray Edwards - At 26 and larger than the other two, Edwards could be an even better long term fit for Jim Washburn’s new scheme. Edwards has played second fiddle to Jared Allen in Minnesota for the last couple of years, but he’s been a consistent pass rush threat. The Vikings are not expected to match offers for him.

Negative Plays per Rush 2011 Eagles vs. Free Agent Defensive Ends

If you’ve followed the blog for awhile, you’ll know that I’m not a big fan the sacks stat (despite using it above). The truth is that the player can put pressure on the quarterback and get in his face, but ultimately there’s a lot of luck in actually achieving the sack. Sometimes one end gives all the pressure, but the quarterback escapes, right into the arms of a sedentary tackle.

Therefore, I tend to rank pass rushers by “negative plays,” or sacks plus hits plus pressures plus blocked passes. Then divide by the number of pass rushing opportunities, and you have a percentage, higher the better. (Pro Football Focus has a slightly different formula for the stat they calculate.)

As you can see, Trent Cole was the best pass rusher the Eagles had in 2010. But he actually scored lower on this statistic than both Edwards and Johnson. Adding either would probably be a big boost over the former production, assuming they fit Washburn’s system. Hopefully we’ll find out soon who the Eagles like best.

Photo from Getty.