2011 Eagles Offseason Guide: Offensive Line

This is the fifth in a series of posts breaking down the Eagles position by position in advance of the upcoming draft and (hopefully) free agency. We’ve already looked at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. Today we’ll examine the offensive line.

2010 Recap: By most metrics, the Eagles offensive line had a bad year in 2010. They gave up 50 sacks, tied for second-worst in the NFL, and were ranked 28th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate. Not only were there a lot of sacks, but the line was so porous that defenses knocked not one, but two different quarterbacks out of the starting lineup.

Most of the problems started on the right side of the line. Center Jamaal Jackson played only 20 snaps in week one before suffering a torn triceps that ended his season. He was replaced by Mike McGlynn, who was serviceable at best. To McGlynn’s right the guard spot was a revolving door of Nick Cole, Reggie Wells, and Max Jean-Gilles. Jean-Gilles had the job at the end of the season, but primarily by process of elimination. Hurt by the uncertainty next to him and apparently a bone chip in his knee, Winston Justice was also sub par at right tackle.

Jason Peters and Todd Herremans held steady on the left side of the line, and were the only two Eagles lineman that Pro Football Focus awarded positive grades. In run blocking especially they provided a ray of sunshine: backs averaged over 4.5 yards per carry going to the left, compared to a dismal 3.7 yards headed right.

Who’s Leaving: It’s possible that none of the 2010 right guards will be back. Wells is an unrestricted free agent. The Eagles didn’t bother putting a restricted free agent tender on the 6 ft., 350 lb. bowling ball that is Nick Cole. They did offer Jean-Gilles a 4th round tender, which might be enough to keep him if the same rules apply in the new collective bargaining agreement.

2011 Depth Chart: The left side of the line is set, and the team hopes that Jackson can return to solidify the center spot. If the season started tomorrow McGlynn would probably start at right guard, although he should be challenged by Jean-Gilles and a rookie. After last year’s letdown, Justice won’t be handed his starting spot either. He’ll likely have to compete with King Dunlap and/or a rookie.

Other players already on the roster competing for back up positions will be tackles Austin Howard and Fenuki Tupou, center A.Q. Shipley and center/guard Dallas Reynolds.

Potential Additions: This draft has a lot of offensive linemen for the Eagles to throw into the mix, and I’ve gone on record suggesting that it’s the most likely position the team will address in the 1st round. Wisconsin tackle Gabe Carimi has been mentioned a lot in mock drafts. Florida center/guard Mike Pouncey is another option. A few days ago, Tommy Lawlor identified Georgia guard Clint Boling as potential addition in the second round. It’s tough to speculate across such a huge range of players, but adding talent that can compete immediately is essential to restoring the line in 2011.

Future Outlook:  Peters, Herremans, Jackson, and Justice are all signed through 2013, but new line coach Howard Mudd will have this season to determine if the last two are capable long term solutions. McGlynn, Dunlap, and Howard have all shown flashes of potential as well, but it’s unclear at this time where or if they fit into Mudd’s plans for — especially if the team devotes more high draft picks to the position.

Originally published at NBC Philadelphia. Photo from Getty.

2011 Eagles Offseason Guide: Tight End

This is the fourth in a series of posts breaking down the Eagles position by position in advance of the upcoming draft and (hopefully) free agency. We’ve already looked at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. Today we’ll examine the tight ends.

2010 Recap:  Donovan McNabb always liked his tight ends, and two years ago Brent Celek led the Eagles in receptions with 76. The switch to Kevin Kolb, a quarterback with a weaker arm, was supposed to bolster that relationship even more. That’s why the Eagles gave Celek a six year, $30 million contract extension in 2009. But things didn’t quite go as planned.

Last year, with Michael Vick at the helm, Celek became an afterthought. His role as a blocker increased from 14 percent of pass plays to 22 percent and his targets dropped from 111 in 2009 to only 77 last season. As the wide receivers take over, receptions from the tight end spot have become less important — and Celek’s numbers dropped accordingly.

Clay Harbor, a rookie, picked up the back up role without much problem — although he wasn’t asked to do a lot. It did seem like his blocking was improving by the end of the season though. Garrett Mills, who the Eagles promoted from the practice squad midway through the season, was the only other tight end to catch a pass.

Who’s Leaving:  Mills is gone already, claimed off waivers in December. Not exactly a big loss.

2011 Depth Chart: Celek and Harbor seem set in the first two spots, which will likely be the only ones that matter. Two other players will serve as token competitors to Harbor. The first is a familiar face, Cornelius Ingram, who the Eagles drafted in the 5th round of the 2009 draft. Ingram was cut last offseason after a rookie year lost to a torn ACL, and then brought back on the practice squad at the end of 2010. The other player is John Nalbone, who was selected by the Dolphins just eight picks after Ingram in 2009 but never caught on their either.

Potential Additions: I honestly don’t see any reason the Eagles would add another tight end this summer. They seem to think only two tight ends are necessary for the active roster, and there are already four in camp. Unless the coaches are more in doubt about Harbor than we thought, he should be pretty safe.

Future Outlook:  Celek’s signed until 2016. The biggest thing to look at long term is how Harbor progresses. Will he have to permanently compete for the back up job, or does the team think might he has the talent to stick around after Celek?

Originally published at NBC Philadelphia. Photo from Getty.

2011 Eagles Offseason Guide: Wide Receiver

This is the third in a series of posts breaking down the Eagles position by position in advance of the upcoming draft and (hopefully) free agency. We’ve already looked at quarterback and running back. Today we’ll examine the wide receivers.

2010 Recap:  I already explored wide receiver performance in a previous post — so go check that out. Jeremy Maclin led all receivers in targets and DeSean Jackson had the highest yards per target, with Jason Avant retaining his premier slot position role. Because the top three guys are so talented, there was little left in the pie for the large rookie Riley Cooper or tiny Chad Hall. The duo combined for only 17 receptions the whole season.

Who’s Leaving:  No one has to leave. They’re all under contract for next season, although Hall’s roster spot certainly isn’t guaranteed. He didn’t do a whole lot to impress in limited action.

2011 Depth Chart: Everything seems to be set except for the last spot, unless Riley Cooper makes big enough strides in year two to challenge the elder statesman Avant (who’s only 27 years old) for playing time. I expect the Eagles will draft another late round wide receiver to compete with Hall and the practice squad fodder on the roster like Sinorice Moss, Rod Harper, and Jeremy Williams.

Potential Additions: If the Eagles are going to dress a fifth wideout, the player is going to have to offer something else. That something extra is probably on special teams, where the Eagles are still looking for a reliable kick returner. Look for someone like that in a late round. I’m certainly no draft expert, but reading some of the scouting reports guys like Ronald Johnson from USC, Dwayne Harris from East Carolina, or Jeremy Kerley from TCU could fit.

Future Outlook:  Future is brighter here than perhaps anywhere else on the team, assuming the Eagles can lock up DeSean Jackson to a long term deal. Once all this lockout nonsense is behind us, that should happen fairly quickly and the reign of explosive young wide receivers will continue.

Originally published at NBC Philadelphia. Photo from Getty.

2011 Eagles Offseason Guide: Running Back

This is the second in a series of posts breaking down the Eagles position by position in advance of the upcoming draft and (hopefully) free agency. Yesterday we looked at quarterback. Today we’ll examine the running back spot.

2010 Recap: Last season was all about LeSean McCoy. The Eagles young starter ran the ball even more efficiently than Brian Westbrook at the same age. But other than McCoy, the running back position was a revolving door. Mike Bell was signed before the season but showed nothing. He was then traded midseason to the Cleveland Browns for Jerome Harrison. Harrison didn’t play a lot, but he performed when he was called on, including 100-yard rushing days against the Redskins and Cowboys. Eldra Buckley was the third back and saw very limited action. Although he did perform well on special teams.

At fullback, fan favorite Leonard Weaver severely tore his ACL on his very first carry of the season in week one. The team signed Owen Schmitt to take his place for the rest of the year and the former West Virgina grad performed adequately, if not particularly noteworthy.

Who’s Leaving: Much depends on the rules of the new collective bargaining agreement (assuming there is one). Harrison, a restricted free agent, was tendered at a second-round level under the current rules — meaning that any team who wanted to sign him would have to give up a high pick to the Eagles. Buckley was only tendered at the lowest level that allows the Eagles to match any offer, so he’s more likely on his way out. Finally, the team is only going to keep one fullback, so Weaver will have to fight to show he’s fully recovered to keep his job.

2011 Depth Chart: McCoy is the starter, backed up by a veteran (likely Harrison) and probably a rookie. Unless the team adds another fullback to make the battle more interesting, only Weaver or Schmitt will return.

Potential Additions: There are a few interesting free agent names. Darren Sproles of the Chargers is a lightning-quick back who would fit nicely into the Eagles’ speed offense — although he may be too expensive. Brian Leonard or Kevin Faulk also could be options.

If the Eagles miss out on Sproles, Oklahoma State’s Kendall Hunter may be the runner-returner that the team turns to in the draft instead. Hunter visited the Eagles for a workout last month.

Future Outlook: With McCoy in place for the long term, now would be a good time to get a secondary back who could grow into the back up spot. This would be the Correll Buckhalter to McCoy’s Westbrook, taking 5-10 carries a game and keeping McCoy from shouldering the entire load. It remains to be seen if the Eagles consider that high on their priority list.

Originally published at NBC Philadelphia. Photo from Getty.

2011 Eagles Offseason Guide: Quarterback

This is the first in a series of posts breaking down the Eagles position by position in advance of the upcoming draft and (hopefully) free agency. Today we’ll start with quarterback.

2010 Recap: Pretty much the story of the season. Michael Vick took over for injured anointed starter Kevin Kolb and never looked back. Vick threw for over 3000 yards, 22 passing touchdowns with only 7 interceptions in just 13 games (including the Wild Card game). Plus, he used his quick feet to turn gain another 676 yards and 9 touchdowns on the ground.

Who’s Leaving: Kolb is almost certainly gone this offseason. While he was inconsistent in 2010, Kolb still had a four-game stretch as a starter in which he threw over 1000 yards with 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. There should be plenty of suitors for Kolb, perhaps enough demand to get a 1st round pick or more (although whether that’s for 2011 or 2012 remains to be seen). That kind of value would greatly outweigh his potential contributions as a backup.

2011 Depth Chart: Vick is the starter. The question is about second-year quarterback Mike Kafka. Can he be the main back up without any NFL playing experience? Certainly it’s possible. Everyone remembers A.J. Feeley’s five-game win streak in 2002 when Donovan McNabb was injured. Feeley was also a sophomore mid-round pick. Kolb, with a higher profile, became McNabb’s primary back up in his second year (although an older Feeley was still around in reserve).

Despite the Eagles working out a few quarterback prospects, such as TCU’s Andy Dalton and Nevada’s Colin Kaepernick, I’d be surprised to see them add another young player at quarterback this year. Kafka and a rookie QB would be the least experienced pair of quarterback back ups the Eagles have ever had under Andy Reid.

Potential Additions: The team will likely look to find a veteran player to plug into that hole instead. Free agents Matt Hasselbeck, Tarvaris Jackson, and Alex Smith all might be options if they can’t find starting jobs.

Future Outlook: Vick’s value, both on and off the field, is tremendous. As soon as possible the Eagles will give him a multi-year contract extension. However, Vick is turning 31 this June, so he probably only has three or, at most, four good years left. Within a year or two Reid’s going to have to start thinking about drafting his successor.

Originally published at NBC Philadelphia. Photo from Getty.

The Doomed Case for Re-signing Quintin Mikell

Yesterday, Philadelphia Sports Daily had an interesting interview with Quintin Mikell, in which the veteran safety and Eagles defensive leader spoke about the uncertain position the team has left him in as a free agent. Mikell hopes to resign with Philadelphia but isn’t sure if the team wants him back.

If the Eagles don’t lock up a player long term prior to them hitting the market, the player typically doesn’t return. This is especially true of players on the wrong side of 30, who the team would rather replace with younger, less expensive talent. Given that the Eagles already have two young safeties who played admirably in 2010 — soon-to-be second year players Nate Allen and Kurt Coleman — and apparently haven’t talked to Mikell about an extension already, fans should assume the worst.

Yet not all older free agents are equal, and a number of factors suggest that letting Mikell walk would be a mistake. I talked about some of these issues last August when I predicted that the Eagles would probably negotiate a contract extension with Mikell. Although those reasons clearly weren’t enough to convince the Eagles during the season, I still think they should bring their starting strong safety back.

First of all, Mikell’s only 30 years old, which isn’t bad, at least for a safety. While he’s one of the elder statesmen on the team, plenty of defensive backs around the league have productive seasons after the age of 30. Last year, for example, 23 such cornerbacks and safeties started at least 10 games for their teams. It will be tough for him to still be playing when he’s Brian Dawkins’s age (37), but Mikell should have at least two more good seasons left in him — especially since he didn’t become a starter until he was 27.

I also mentioned last year that Mikell likely won’t need to be given a big-time contract extension. Mikell’s recent quotes suggest that he’s willing to take a hometown discount out of loyalty. Plus, despite his one Pro Bowl selection, he isn’t considered a star by anyone around the league.

Finally, while Mikell may not be absolutely necessary anymore with the emergence of the younger players, he would provide a important stability to the defensive backfield. Allen is coming off a season-ending torn patellar tendon injury and Coleman has only three career starts under his belt. You can’t count on either of them to step up as bona fide starters for 2011 and beyond. With that in mind, why not solidify that spot for the next two years with a relatively inexpensive Pro Bowler?

As I said at the beginning, I think the signs pointing to Mikell starting in a different uniform next year are too strong to overcome. His age doesn’t fit with general youth movement on the defense, which is getting retooled schematically anyway. And if Joe Banner and company haven’t reached out to Mikell by now, they probably never will.

Still, there’s always hope.

Originally published at NBC Philadelphia. Photo from Getty.

Eagles Drafting 1st Round Cornerback is Unlikely

A lot of reporters and fans have been putting together their mock drafts for the upcoming NFL draft, and many guesses converge on the Eagles taking a cornerback with their first round pick. That’s a scenario I don’t actually find likely, based on recent precedent.

Typically mock draft “experts” are guessing based on the Eagles most glaring weakness or biggest roster hole. They assume that the Eagles will look at their most vulnerable position and attempt to draft a player to plug into that hole. In truth, this isn’t a bad strategy to create mock drafts — it’s how most of the NFL conducts business. But the Eagles aren’t like everyone else.

Last year, I examined the Eagles recent strategy of drafting and concluded that the team rarely drafts players to fill an immediate need. For example, in 2007 the team drafted quarterback Kevin Kolb while Donovan McNabb still was in his prime. Neither DeSean Jackson (2008) or Jeremy Maclin (2009) were immediate need picks, although they both contributed as rookies because of injuries. And then last year the Eagles jumped up in the draft but didn’t do so to fill holes in the secondary. They went with a more long term need: Brandon Graham to be a pass rusher opposite Trent Cole in the years to come.

This philosophy suggests that the Eagles don’t want to count on rookies maturing into starters in one short offseason. If they’re ready, sometimes players can step up after injuries (Jackson, Maclin, Nate Allen, LeSean McCoy), or even beat out veterans for the opening day job (Brandon Graham). But the emphasis with the Eagles is never to draft a player with that intention — they don’t expect instant success.

With this in mind, it’s unlikely that the Eagles will draft a player at a position that they are looking for an immediate fix. That would especially single out right cornerback, perhaps the weakest link on defense. Some mock drafts have the Eagles taking a player like Colorado cornerback Jimmy Smith or Miami’s Brandon Harris and inserting him directly into the starting lineup across from Asante Samuel.

In line with the Eagles draft philosophy, that would be a bad move for 2011. Less than half of all defensive backs taken in rounds one or two in recent drafts were able to start even 8 of their team’s 16 games. Counting on a rookie to step in and solidify that spot is unreliable. Maybe a year or two later, but not right away. Instead, the team would target one or more free agent corners (such as Nnamdi Asomugha) to fill the void.

That’s why I think the Eagles are more likely to target the offensive line. Nabbing a highly-rated lineman who could compete with a returning Jamal Jackson, an underperforming Winston Justice, or any of the questionable guards would fit with the Eagles recent history. If the rookie needed more time to adjust, there would still be veterans ahead of him — but there would be the opportunity for playing time. Defensive line might fit also, where another player to step into the mix long term (now that Graham’s situation is in jeopardy) would be desirable. Additionally, the current players along both lines may not fit with the techniques preferred by the new position coaches Andy Reid hired this offseason.

The draft is less than a month away, and I could end up being wrong. But don’t be surprised if the Eagles don’t take your favorite cornerback with the 23rd overall pick.

Originally published at NBC Philadelphia. Photo from the Philadelphia Eagles.

Kickoff Returns Will Drop Sharply with New Rule

This week the NFL owners approved a rule change that will move kickoffs forward five yards, from the 30 to the 35 yard line. And while that might not seem like a lot, it will have a huge impact on the return game, drastically cutting back on the number of kickoffs that can be brought all the way back for a game-changing play.

Last year, kickers (with at least 15 attempts, not counting onside kicks) averaged 65 yards per kickoff — so the ball landed at the 5 yard line. Because most of these kicks ended up short of or barely crossing into the end zone, returners brought out the vast majority. Only about 16 percent of kickoffs were downed in the end zone for touchbacks in 2010.

When the kickers move forward five yards and average the same distance per kick, the ball is going to land in the end zone a lot more. Some NFL reporters, such as Sal Paolantonio, have suggested that the status quo is likely to return to what it was in 1993. That was the last year that kickoffs occurred at the 35 yard line. In 1993, touchbacks accounted for 32 percent of all kickoffs.

However, we won’t see touchbacks simply double. Kickers have improved significantly since the early nineties. They kick farther and with more hang time than ever before. So  you can’t assume the league will go back to just 32 percent touchbacks.

Based on the correlation between average kickoff distance and touchback percentage, I extrapolated from the 2010 data to determine how many touchbacks we’d have if each kicker essentially gained an extra five yard head start. According to my calculations, the actual number of touchbacks will be more like 40 percent of all kickoffs in 2011.

And that’s actually a conservative estimate. Billy Cundiff of the Ravens was the only kicker in 2010 to average over 70 yards per kickoff (71.1). Most of his kicks landed in the endzone, causing over half of them to go unreturned. With the five yard bump to the 35, the average kickoff will likely be over 70 yards now, thus allowing many more kickers to also force 50 percent or more touchbacks.

Plus, when the receiving team does get a returnable kick, the opposing tacklers will now have less ground to cover in order to get down the field and cut off the angles for a long return. Teams aren’t going to be paying more money for kickoff or return specialists anymore, either.

Overall, these changes have a clear effect. By reducing the number of returnable kicks and cutting down the likelihood of a breakout play, the NFL owners may have relegated kickoffs to an afterthought in the game. Enjoy the touchdown returns, because they’ll be few and far between.

Originally published on NBC Philadelphia. Photo from Getty.