Anticipating the Impact of Todd Bowles

Todd Bowles is 6’2”, 203 lbs. Well, at least he was that big when he played in the NFL as a free safety for eight years.

Normally, the height and weight of a coach wouldn’t matter much. But in the case of Bowles, we can draw a clear line between his frame and his personnel preferences as a secondary coach.

As you can see at right, teams where Bowles has been the secondary coach consistently draft tall defensive backs (the same way Jim Washburn only picked tall defensive ends). In fact, he’s only drafted one defensive back under six feet since 2003, and that was in the seventh round. Clearly, Bowles’s preference is for bigger, more physical players. He probably would not, for example, have endorsed the selections of Sheldon Brown and Lito Sheppard, two 5’10” corners.

More relevant: Asante Samuel is not the type of cornerback Bowles had in mind as his prototypical starter. As I’ve mentioned before, the Samuel trade was about ego, a broken locker room, and justifying the 2011 personnel decisions — not on-the-field performance or the salary cap. But I doubt Bowles was campaigning for Samuel to stick around.

Instead, he’s probably quite content with his starters at cornerback for 2012. Nnamdi Asomugha is 6’2”, 210 lbs and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is 6’2”, 182 lbs. Hopefully Bowles can help mold a solid defensive backfield around the two of them. Curtis Marsh also stands to gain quite a lot from the Bowles hire, since his athletic 6’1”, 197 lbs frame would be perfect for his new coach’s system.

On the other hand, Kurt Coleman probably shouldn’t get too comfortable as a starter. I’ve discussed his athletic limitations before, but Bowles may be particularly keen to find someone with a higher ceiling. The counter-example of course, is 5’9” Brandon Boykin, whose selection Bowles must have approved. But perhaps he is willing to make an exception for the physical slot corner, regardless of his size, given the value he presented in the fourth round.

Alright, you’re probably saying, this is fun roster speculation and all, but what does it really mean? I’ll admit, not much right now. We already knew who the likely starters were and presumably Bowles will play whomever is the best in practice, not go simply by their official measurements. The more important question remains: is Bowles really a great coach? Every reporter hailed the addition as brilliant, but I’m less impressed by the fossil record:

Photo from Getty.

Castillo Stays, Todd Bowles in at DBs Coach

Jeff McLane has the scoop:

The Eagles are set to hire former Miami interim head coach Todd Bowles to be their defensive backs coach in charge of cornerbacks and Juan Castillo will remain defensive coorindator an NFL source told The Inquirer on Monday.

Well, if they weren’t going to fire Juan Castillo, and they weren’t going to hire Steve Spagnuolo to oversee the defense… I suppose this is about the best you can expect.

Bowles has been a defensive backs coach in the NFL for the last 12 years. He became the Dolphins’ interim head coach after Tony Sparano was fired in December.

Do the Eagles Value Safeties Over Corners Now?

Over the last couple of years we’ve seen an exodus in the Eagles defensive backfield. Brian Dawkins, Lito Sheppard, Sheldon Brown, and now (presumably) Quintin Mikell. There’s a completely new starting unit now — but the way the Eagles have gone about replacing all the departing All-Stars has been interesting. While there have been long-term holes at both cornerback and safety, the team has invested high draft picks only in safety.

Cornerback has long been considered a key position for the Eagles and other defenses. Today’s pass happy NFL regularly exposes mediocre corners (see Patterson, Dimitri). So one would think that in addition to signing Asante Samuel, the Eagles front office would be committed to finding more starters who can lock down opposing wide receivers for years to come. But they haven’t. Instead we’ve seen a string of low round picks, projects with upside rather than instant contributors: Jack Ikegwuonu (4th round), Trevard Lindley (4th), Curtis Marsh (3rd). They also drafted another fourth round corner, Macho Harris, only to convert him to safety and cut him after a year. Veterans Patterson, Ellis Hobbs, and Joselio Hanson haven’t been the answer.

Meanwhile, the team has now invested in two second round safeties who were considered NFL-ready by many scouts. Nate Allen started most of the 2010 at free safety, and Jaiquawn Jarrett, this year’s draft pick, should compete with Kurt Coleman for the starting strong safety spot right away. You can see the difference between a top second round pick like Allen and a fourth round player like Lindley, who barely saw the field last season and isn’t seriously being considered to start next year either.

So why the split? Why not draft a top cornerback to try to replicate the success of Allen and immediately upgrade the position, rather than roll the dice on another project? The opportunities, both this year and last year, were there. And no one can argue that cornerback is less of a need.

There’s no easy answer. Perhaps the Eagles thought that safety was where the value was, especially if they’re planning to pick up a cornerback in free agency, although that doesn’t necessarily answer the long-term question for a team that likes to draft for the future. Maybe the increase in importance of the safety position requires a renewed commitment. Or perhaps there’s more optimism about the team’s current corners than we thought.

Whatever the reason, the Eagles clearly put safety ahead of cornerback in the last two drafts. Free agency will tell us whether that preference is conditional and temporary, or if it’s part of a larger trend.

Originally published at NBC Philadelphia. Photo from Getty.

The Doomed Case for Re-signing Quintin Mikell

Yesterday, Philadelphia Sports Daily had an interesting interview with Quintin Mikell, in which the veteran safety and Eagles defensive leader spoke about the uncertain position the team has left him in as a free agent. Mikell hopes to resign with Philadelphia but isn’t sure if the team wants him back.

If the Eagles don’t lock up a player long term prior to them hitting the market, the player typically doesn’t return. This is especially true of players on the wrong side of 30, who the team would rather replace with younger, less expensive talent. Given that the Eagles already have two young safeties who played admirably in 2010 — soon-to-be second year players Nate Allen and Kurt Coleman — and apparently haven’t talked to Mikell about an extension already, fans should assume the worst.

Yet not all older free agents are equal, and a number of factors suggest that letting Mikell walk would be a mistake. I talked about some of these issues last August when I predicted that the Eagles would probably negotiate a contract extension with Mikell. Although those reasons clearly weren’t enough to convince the Eagles during the season, I still think they should bring their starting strong safety back.

First of all, Mikell’s only 30 years old, which isn’t bad, at least for a safety. While he’s one of the elder statesmen on the team, plenty of defensive backs around the league have productive seasons after the age of 30. Last year, for example, 23 such cornerbacks and safeties started at least 10 games for their teams. It will be tough for him to still be playing when he’s Brian Dawkins’s age (37), but Mikell should have at least two more good seasons left in him — especially since he didn’t become a starter until he was 27.

I also mentioned last year that Mikell likely won’t need to be given a big-time contract extension. Mikell’s recent quotes suggest that he’s willing to take a hometown discount out of loyalty. Plus, despite his one Pro Bowl selection, he isn’t considered a star by anyone around the league.

Finally, while Mikell may not be absolutely necessary anymore with the emergence of the younger players, he would provide a important stability to the defensive backfield. Allen is coming off a season-ending torn patellar tendon injury and Coleman has only three career starts under his belt. You can’t count on either of them to step up as bona fide starters for 2011 and beyond. With that in mind, why not solidify that spot for the next two years with a relatively inexpensive Pro Bowler?

As I said at the beginning, I think the signs pointing to Mikell starting in a different uniform next year are too strong to overcome. His age doesn’t fit with general youth movement on the defense, which is getting retooled schematically anyway. And if Joe Banner and company haven’t reached out to Mikell by now, they probably never will.

Still, there’s always hope.

Originally published at NBC Philadelphia. Photo from Getty.

How Small is the Eagles Defense? Very.

The Eagles’ defense has seemingly always been on the smaller side, valuing speed over size in many phases of the game. But new defensive coordinator Sean McDermott has put an even greater premium on quicker guys who can cover. This defensive philosophy is purposeful, an attempt to counter the pass-heavy nature of today’s NFL.

The question is: how small is the defense? I went back to the NFL rosters I compiled about two months back and looked at the Eagles vs. other teams. The following numbers are based on those pre-draft rosters.

Let’s break the size down by position, starting with defensive backs:

The Eagles’ corners and safeties are undoubtably small. The unit is one of only five in the whole league that averages less than 5’11” and 195 lbs. The others are Detroit, Buffalo, Atlanta, and Indianapolis — not exactly a star group.  Nate Allen and Trevard Lindley may boost the unit’s physical presence, but not by much.

The other thing that isn’t measured here is speed, and I’m not so sure this group of Eagles’ defensive backs makes up for their small stature with blazing speed.

The Eagles’ linebacker corps looks more average. But Stewart Bradley is the only real big guy they have. Ernie Sims, Moise Fokou, Omar Gaither, and Akeem Jordan are all slight, and the incoming class of rookies isn’t any bigger.

Because the Eagles are big fans of both small defensive ends and using those ends in place of back-up defensive tackles, they rank toward the bottom of the NFL here. Only Green Bay has shorter linemen, and only Oakland, Seattle, Carolina, Tennessee, and Indianapolis have lighter ones.

This data doesn’t do a whole lot other than confirm our general observations. But it does show that the Eagles are on the bleeding edge of the league in terms of valuing speed over size — and the defense is only getting smaller with every new acquisition. Whether that’s foreshadowing a new league-wide trend or just a big mistake, we’ll soon find out.

Nate Allen: Under Pressure

Pushing down on me, Pushing down on you…

What a difference a few days make.

Second round pick Nate Allen was supposed to compete for the starting free safety spot, not have it thrown on him before OTAs even ended. But with the season-ending injury to free agent pick up Marlin Jackson, that’s exactly where Allen stands. Add in the MCL sprain to strong safety Quintin Mikell, and Nate Allen suddenly looks to have a whole lot of weight on his shoulders come training camp.

As you can see from the table at right, less than half of the defensive backs taken in the first or second round of the NFL draft start even the majority of their team’s games. There’s no reason Allen, who figures to be somewhere in the middle of that pack talent-wise, couldn’t be one of those guys who starts the whole year. But it’s certainly no given.

**Interesting side note, of the 15 DBs who did start at least 9 games, it’s split down the middle (8 firsts, 7 seconds) as to which round they were taken in.

And yet perhaps the biggest transition for Allen won’t be on the field, it will be avoiding questions about how he measures up against two former Eagles in a war of media memes.

The first pattern emerging from OTAs is that Allen has to live up to being “The Donovan McNabb Pick.” Over the last week you can see this label emerge here, here, and here. I know its fun to see what teams “win” trades by looking at who they actually get from draft picks. (Anthony Spencer for Kevin Kolb, Stewart Bradley, and CJ Gaddis was especially good for that.)

But let’s just end this thing before it goes any further. It’s silly to compare Allen’s performance this year at safety to McNabb’s in Washington, especially when he already has enough responsibility and pressure. When the Redskins come to Philly in October, McNabb will probably expose the Eagles’ secondary, and the easy-way-out-seeking headline writers will champion the failure of the McNabb trade. Chill out.

The second meme of the week, resulting from the Marlin Jackson injury, is that there is some “Brian Dawkins Jinx” on the free safety spot. As Reuben Frank writes,

Quintin Demps got the first crack at it. He didn’t even make it to opening day. Then it was rookie Macho Harris’s turn. He made it through six starts. Sean Jones was up next. That lasted until late in the regular season, when Harris took over for the last few weeks. This summer, the job went to Marlin Jackson. Who limped off the practice field with a ruptured Achilles tendon on Tuesday. So when rookie Nate Allen took over as the Eagles’ starting free safety, he became the fifth different guy in 10 months to get a shot since Brian Dawkins left for Denver.

Okay, first of all, huge stretch to start calling this any kind of real curse. None of these guys (One second-year player, one rookie, two middling veteran pick-ups) could realisitically have been expected to do a great job. And if Allen struggles this year, it won’t be because of some strange voodoo Dawk left in the stadium before he flew to Denver — it will be for the simple fact that starting in the NFL as a rookie is no easy task.

Second, who breaks out the “Curse” watch just a little more than a year after a player’s exit? Were they counting missed titles in Boston in 1921? Were Philly fans in 1988? These reporters seem to be just grasping at straws these days.

And it’s trickled down to the players:

“Everybody saying the whole Dawk-jinx thing, everyone looking at him being a rookie, being the Donovan McNabb pick, all that stuff, he’s got to deal with,” Mikell said. “But if he goes out there and does what he does, don’t ask too much of himself, don’t put too much pressure on himself, just go out there and play ball, he’ll be fine.”

Yeah, that’ll be a real piece of cake. Of course, Andy Reid says Allen’s “got a nice football mind,” whatever that means. Maybe he can beat all this baggage. He’s certainly not going to get off easy if he can’t.

On the Bubble: Projecting the Eagles 2010 Roster — Defense Edition

There was a lot of roster turnover this offseason on the defensive side of the ball. Plenty of young blood and plenty of new toys for Sean McDermott. Here’s how I think the competition looks in early May:

Defensive Line (13 players; 10 likely spots)
Locks: Trent Cole, Broderick Bunkley, Mike Patterson, Darryl Tapp, Brandon Graham (r), Daniel Te’o-Nesheim (r), Ricky Sapp (r)
On the Bubble: Victor Abiamiri, Trevor Laws, Antonio Dixon, Juqua Parker, Jeff Owens (r)
Longshots: Eric Moncur (r)
Analysis: The rookies are going to get good chances to contribute right away in the absence of veterans like Darren Howard, Chris Clemons, and Jason Babin. And you’ve got a motley crew fighting for the remaining jobs: the old vet, the UDFA that showed immense upside last year, the two second-round picks that haven’t done much on the field, and the 7th-round challenger. Listed Sapp here because Andy’s talked about him as a Joker-type, not a legit option at SAM. If the coaches think he can crossover he may be competing with Alex Hall (listed with the LBs) for a job. Plus, When you consider Abiamiri may not be ready for the season to start, the Eagles probably will bring in a few more UDFAs to compete.

Linebackers (9 players; 6 likely spots)
Locks: Stewart Bradley, Ernie Sims, Moise Fokou, Keenan Clayton (r)
On the Bubble: Akeem Jordan, Omar Gaither, Joe Mays, Alex Hall, Jamar Chaney (r)
Longshots: None
Analysis: No longshots here; everybody’s got a legit chance of a spot. However, given the recent youth movement, don’t think guys with little shot of ever starting again (see: Gaither, Mays) should get too comfortable. I would bet it’s Bradley, Sims, and Fokou starting, with Clayton, Jordan, and Chaney subs. Hall could stick as a hybrid DE/LB.

Defensive Backs (15 players; 9 likely spots)
Locks: Quintin Mikell, Asante Samuel, Nate Allen (r), Macho Harris, Ellis Hobbs, Trevard Lindley (r)
On the Bubble: Joselio Hanson, Marlin Jackson, Quintin Demps, Dimitri Patterson, Kurt Coleman (r)
Longshots: Geoffrey Pope, David Pender (r), Josh Morris (r), Devin Ross (r)

Analysis: The Eagles are in a tough spot with Macho, because he’s the best option at FS if Nate Allen can’t step up and take the job right away. However, if Macho doesn’t get reps at CB, how can he compete there? He’s better than back-up safety or dime CB (where he might end up if Allen only takes the job right before the season), so they have to hope the positions sort themselves out soon. Coleman, Demps, and maybe Jackson will be working at back-up safety. The prospects at CB are more unsettled, but clearly Hobbs, Macho, Lindley will get looks. If Jackson can’t pull his weight at safety they could try to stash him at CB as well — but that might eliminate the chances of keeping another long-term prospect at the position like Patterson or one over the UDFAs.

Special Teams (5 players; 3 likely spots)
Locks: David Akers, Jon Dorenbos
On the Bubble: Sav Rocca, Durant Brooks, Ken Parrish
Longshots: None
Analysis: PUNTER COMPETITION! WOOHOO!

Plenty of uncertainty there. Anyone have predictions?