In the Press Box: Vikings-Eagles!

Thanks to some awesome folks at NBC Philadelphia and the Philadelphia Eagles media relations crew, I’ll be in the press box Sunday night at Lincoln Financial Field for the first time, breaking down the action, the post game press conference, and the locker room quotes — in person!

Obviously I have some ideas about things to cover and questions to ask, but I’m opening up the floor to you, my small cadre of followers. What should I do? Who should I talk to? What should I look into? Are there stories you wish were covered or perspectives you feel are missing?

Send me an email, post something in the comments, or hit me up on Twitter. I look forward to seeing what we can come up with, Eagles fans.

Statistically, Eagles Comeback Was Near Impossible

Many fans around Philadelphia turned off their televisions when the Eagles were down 31-10 to the Giants on Sunday. Even NBC10’s own Tim Furlong admitted to it.

While those of us who stuck around witnessed perhaps the most incredible comeback in Eagles history, was it that wrong to walk away from such a huge deficit? There’s no “right” answer, but at least statistically, there was no reason to expect the Birds could come back to win — even if every ball bounced their way.

According to the Win Probability calculated by Advanced NFL Stats, that possibility was as close to zero as you could get. Let’s break it down by play…

Time to Pay Vick & DeSean

Would the Eagles be assuming some major risk with those moves? Absolutely. Jackson probably isn’t close to his listed 175 pounds in pads and has a history of concussions and neck injuries. Vick is a 30-year-old scrambling quarterback, takes a bunch of hits, and hasn’t shown that he can play at this level long term. Plus, he’s one off-the-field misstep away from permanent suspension by the NFL.

And yes, there are some major hangups regarding the current NFL collective bargaining agreement and how that affects giving out contract extensions. Much of the money would need to be guaranteed while other incentives and salary cap workarounds would need to be put into place.

But at this point, with these two transcendent stars, none of that matters. You have to get deals done to keep them in Philadelphia long term. Why? It comes down to one simple fact:

No other two players in the NFL could have won Sunday’s game…

DeSean's Final Steps: Smart Play or Show Off?

After the Eagles “New Miracle at the Meadowlands” comeback ended with Jackson’s amazing punt return, Andy Reid said that his star returner and wide receiver was simply making sure that there was no time left on the clock when he ran along the mouth of the goal line for a few seconds before going into the end zone.

After such a exhilarating play, no one really wants to counter the notion that Jackson was performing the smart play. But DeSean’s history of goal line mishaps and early celebrations is well documented.

However, the truth regarding the final moments of the Giants game is unclear. The only certainty is that running along the goal line was not the smart move. Time had already run out during Jackson’s return before he reached the Giants 20 yard-line…

McBenched

Just over a month ago, Donovan McNabb signed what was thought to be a long-term contract extension with the Redskins. Now it appears that “Tom Brady-esque” money was little more than a mirage in the desert wasteland of Washington DC sports.

According to multiple anonymous sources cited by The Washington Post, Redskins Coach Mike Shanahan has benched McNabb, his “franchise quarterback,” in favor of Rex Grossman for this Sunday’s game against the Cowboys.

McNabb — who hasn’t been a healthy scratch since his rookie season — said on Wednesday that he would have expected “professionalism and communication” by being informed in advance. After declining to publicly name a starter in his last press conference, Shanahan does not seem to have granted him that respect…

Are NFL Referees Biased?

The data shown in the graph above depicts the average penalties called per game against away teams versus home teams. Those referees who call more fouls against the away team have positive bars, and those who call more against home teams have negative bars.

Once that becomes clear, it’s easy to see which referees have bias for or against the home team. For example, our good friend and “strictest NFL ref” Ed Hochuli is also the umpire with the second-most against home teams. He calls, on average, 1.67 penalties more against the home team than the visiting. The crew led by Walt Anderson is even worse.

Meanwhile, referees like Gene Steratore, Terry McAuley, and Pete Morelli have the opposite bias: against the visiting team by over 1.5 calls a game. if the Eagles had two home games, the first refereed by Anderson’s crew and the second by Steratore’s, there would be a swing of almost four penalties, enough to halt a drive, call back a long run, or miss a blatant late hit…

Fear or Be Feared: NFC East Pass Rushers

The first thing that stands out is that Trent Cole has surpassed DeMarcus Ware as the best pass rusher in the division. Last year Ware led the pack as the only player with more than 13 percent. This time he hasn’t fallen off much, but Cole has improved by almost five percentage points.

Meanwhile, the second-best rusher last year was Anthony Spenser of the Cowboys, who has droppd down to 11th this season. That could explain why Dallas’s pass rush isn’t nearly as fearsome as everyone thought it would be during the offseaon.

Who has stepped up to take Spencer’s place as best young rusher? Why, Eagles rookie Brandon Graham, who despite only amassing three sacks, is third best in the division in total pressures. He’s followed close behind by the guy who shares his snaps, Juqua Parker, and another Eagles back-up, Darryl Tapp. None of these players have been flashy, but they’re making an impact even when you’re not noticing them…

Eagles Pass Rush: Who's Up, Who's Down?

For starters, you can see that Parker, while still more effective than last year, has dropped off to a lesser role, going from getting pressure on close to 20 percent of all pass rushes to only 13 percent. Laws has similarly fallen back to the middle of the pack as far as Eagles defensive tackles go.

Meanwhile, Cole has actually become slightly more effective as the season has gone on, leading the team in Pressure per Rush and sacks, with nine.

First round pick Graham, whose season ended prematurely on Sunday with an ACL tear, didn’t make a lot of flashy plays. Yet the rookie sill had a promising first year. He was second on the team only to Cole in quarterback hits and pressures, leading him to a total Pressure per Rush percentage of 13.7, good enough for third-best in the NFC East after 14 weeks. If he can recover from his knee injury, Graham should have a bright future on the Eagles defensive line for years to come…