Can The Eagles Defense Carry The Offense?

Last week, I placed the blame for the Eagles' 0-2 start squarely at the feet of the offense. Despite this week's win over the Jets (yay!), Chip Kelly's favorite unit continued to perform woefully.

Yes, Ryan Mathews, subbing in for DeMarco Murray, rushed for 108 yards on 25 carries. But his numbers hide the fact that there were still far too many negative or no gain rushes (10 total). Between Mathews and Darren Sproles, the rushing game averaged just 3.47 yards per carry, a heady improvement from the prior weeks, but nothing to get excited about. Everyone on the offensive line, including Kelce, Peters, and Johnson, are struggling to run block consistently.

Meanwhile, despite being sacked just once, Sam Bradford played another horrible game. His final numbers were 14 for 28 (50% completion rate) for just 118 yards. One touchdown and zero turnovers, if you want to focus on that. But his accuracy was poor, his ball placement terrible, and he has zero guts to throw the ball downfield, one of the only things that might give the running game enough room to breathe. See more at ChipWagon, as always.

All of which leads to...

The #Eagles offense is regressing. 2013: 6.3 yards per play 2014: 5.6 yards per play 2015: 4.5 yards per play

— Phil Bicking (@p_Red) September 28, 2015

Really bad. So the question is, until the time the offense recovers (assuming that's in the cards?), can the Eagles defense carry the team? And on that front, at least, there are some promising signs. To the stats!

Through three games, the Eagles have given up the 5th-fewest points per drive (1.42), the 9th-fewest yards per drive (26.9) and the 10th-fewest plays per drive (5.6). The run defense has been fantastic—allowing a league-low of 3.1 yards per rush and zero rushing touchdowns. Most important, they've forced turnovers on one out of every five opposing possessions. To keep it going, we'll need more Walter Thurmond ball-hawking and disruption at the line of scrimmage (Brandon Bair sighting FTW).

The worrisome note is that the Eagles haven't gotten consistent pressure on quarterbacks. The defense ranks 8th-worst in sack rate so far. Overall, this isn't terribly surprising. The two-gapping scheme means players like Fletcher Cox are responsible for the run first, then the pass second. Neither Connor Barwin nor Brandon Graham are consistent man-beaters on the outside. And now the top two middle linebackers are hurt. Billy Davis needs to mix in some good blitz concepts to get pressure if this defense is going to sustain itself.

Three games is also quite a small sample size, especially when about half of that time the Eagles faced Brandon Weeden and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Luckily, due to a combination of easy schedule and injuries, the Eagles aren't scheduled to face many top quarterbacks down the stretch. The next three games match up against Kirk Cousins, Luke McCown, and Eli Manning, with Cam Newton as the pre-bye week chaser.

Still, that we're having this conversation at all is a good sign. The defense was atrocious two years ago, and improved to average or slightly above last year. If it can take another leap, that's a huge deal for this team—especially if the offense can't turn it around.

By the Numbers: Eagles Triumph Over Ravens

​If the ending of the Browns game came as a collective sigh of relief among Eagles fans, this one point win was a jubilant scream. Despite more turnovers, penalties, and a spate of injuries that grounded three offensive starters, the Eagles beat what looks like at worst a solid contender and at best a team primed to make a deep playoff run. Kudos all around. Let's go to the numbers:

71.9 = Michael Vick's completion percentage. That's Vick's second-highest single-game completion percentage since he came to Philly. He still isn't out of the woods; that end zone interception on the first drive was too ambitious, and he almost had a third pick when he tried to force the ball to Brent Celek in the red zone, but this was a much better version of Vick.

36.0 = Average QB rating vs Eagles defense. Average QB rating in opponents' other games (both vs CIN): 121.7. Great stat find by The Guy On The Couch, at the very least it shows how much better the Eagles D is compared to the Bengals D.

42:31 =  Eagles pass-run play call ratio. The actual ratio of passes to runs tilts the other way because of Vick's scrambles, but overall Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg called a fairly balanced attack (especially compared to last week). Two other notes on this. One: LeSean McCoy clearly has a pitch count. Otherwise they wouldn't have given six early carries to Bryce Brown/Stanley Havili/Damaris Johnson. Two: the pitch count makes it obvious early on when the Eagles are going to focus on the run. If the coaches know they want to run more, they work hard to limit McCoy's touches early in order to preserve him for later.

​9 = Eagles turnovers in their first two games.​ It's amazing that the Eagles have managed to win twice with these turnovers (plus other mistakes like penalties). The only five teams with worse turnover margins are a combined 3-7 so far. What does DeSean Jackson think about this?

"If you cut away those turnovers, the best team in the league," he said, "period, hands down."

30 = Possessions by Eagles opponents in two games.​ Not to harp on the same theme, but the defense has had to deal with the ramifications of those turnovers. Let me put it this way: the Ravens offense racked up 44 points in 10 drives against the Bengals. They could only muster 23 points in 14 drives against the Eagles. 

70 = ​Defensive snaps for both DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. They played every down yesterday. Looks like the linebacker shuffle may be over, at long last.

19.6 = Yards per catch for Celek.​ The Eagles tight end had a tremendous game, not the least of which was his vault over Hall of Fame safety Ed Reed. I think this will be easier to see on All-22, but it seems that the Ravens—like the Browns before them—kept their safeties deep to prevent the long ball. That opened up a lot of space in the middle of the field for Celek to exploit in crossing routes. One of the things that such success suggests, however, is how much better Vick is throwing to larger targets. At least until Riley Cooper returns, Celek is by far the Eagles biggest receiver—and that's unfortunate.

25 = Pass targets, out of 42 total, for Ray Rice and Dennis Pitta. Again, tough to tell before the All-22 is released, but it seemed that the Eagles were very effective in man coverage on the Ravens wide receivers. Aside from a few breakdowns, like Jacoby Jones beating Nnamdi Asomugha with a double move or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie inexplicably bailing out of coverage on Torrey Smith down the sideline, Flacco couldn't get anything going on the outside or up the field. He was forced to check down to his tight end and running back, a trade-off the Eagles will take every time. There's definitely room to improve against those players, though. Nate Allen and Kurt Coleman each had trouble at times keeping up with Pitta/Rice.

2 = Back-to-back Eagles wins by a single point. Last season, the Eagles went 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less. This year, they've won two straight by a single point. I think some of the "if this were 2011, they would have lost" talk is misleading, because this isn't about "heart" or something similarly abstract. A large part is substantive improvement in the defense. In both games, the Eagles opponent had ample time to mount a game-winning drive in the final seconds (and the Ravens certainly had the kicker to pull it off). The difference in 2012 is that the defense is good enough that it can shut down an offense in the last moments.

​Photo from Getty.

'Why Did I Do That?'

Jonathan Tamari:

“Some if it was, ‘What was I thinking?’ ” Pederson said, describing Vick’s reaction to last year’s game tapes. Some turnovers were out of his hands. A few interceptions came from wild tips. But “for the most part it’s just ‘Why? … Why did I do that?’ And that’s the kind of thing that we missed a year ago in that offseason.”

Sometimes your greatest strength can be your greatest weakness. For Michael Vick, his athleticism allows him to skate by on improvisation alone. It’s good to see him questioning that mentality.

Beyond 'I Goofed'

The full transcript of Andy Reid’s interview with McLane and Domo is up, and it has some juicier quotes than just the “goofed” line.

“From a coaching standpoint, we probably gave [Michael Vick] a little too much too soon protection-responsibility wise. You can’t take quite as much as we did early and do that with a guy. Even though he’s been in the league as long as he has, it’s a different (protection) scheme. If I had to go back on it, I would have backed up and just gradually fed him the stuff. You’re talking about a very intelligent guy. Very intelligent. But you can’t dump years and years of things on the table and expect him to go and perform.”

That’s the first time, to my knowledge, that Reid has admitted that a lot of the protection/decision issues were on Vick.

“The first thing that happens in this league is, if the coach doesn’t know what he’s talking about, the players are going to let you know. They’re gonna be very verbal about that. But everybody stayed on board with Juan Castillo. I thought that was a tribute to him, his coaching ability and his staff.”

In trying to tell us, “Hey, at least the players like him better than that McDermott guy,” Reid actually places Castillo in a category of coach that “doesn’t know what he’s talking about.” Stunning.

Stop Drinking the Juan Castillo Kool-Aid

It never ceases to amaze me how quickly both fans and writers can jump-start the bandwagon after a mere modicum of success.

When I wrote yesterday about the possibility of a pro-Juan Castillo movement, I had no idea it would get started so quickly. I assumed it would take at least another week or two of solid defense, and even then it wouldn’t be particularly vocal. Apparently I was wrong.

The Eagles have put together back-to-back good defensive performances. Both games came against mediocre or worse offenses (check the DVOA) with poor starting quarterbacks. In both games the defense benefitted from early opponent turnovers and the return of Michael Vick, who guided the Eagles offense to two large halftime leads. Then the Jets/Dolphins offense, neither being world-beaters in the first place, became one dimensional and desperate through the rest of the game.

Even if you want to overlook those particularly beneficial factors, don’t you at least remember how the rest of this season has gone? Not once, but twice before the Eagles defense seemed to be going in the right direction.

After week eight the Eagles had won two straight games and limited the Redskins and Cowboys to 20 points combined. The playoff hunt was back on… until it wasn’t. The Eagles immediately lost to the Bears and Cardinals. But all was forgiven again when Vince Young led them a win over the Giants in the Meadowlands. At least until they came back the next two weeks and got blown out by the Patriots (38 points), and embarrassed by the lowly Seahawks (31 points).

So forgive me if I’m not ready to crown Castillo after these last two “everything that can go right” wins. I’d be surprised if the defense manages to keep up the pace over the final two weeks. And, not to move the goalposts, but even if they do play well (against two flawed teams they’ve already beaten) it will still be best for the Eagles to move on from this utterly failed defensive coordinator experiment.

Photo from Getty.

By the Numbers: Record-Breaking Victory

You may be surprised to hear this, but the Eagles are two more solid defensive efforts away from retaining Juan Castillo. One can see how the notion is going to start gaining momentum.

Since the Eagles left Seattle in disgrace, their defense has played two straight good games, albeit not against world-beaters. Over the final two weeks, they play two teams that they held to a combined 20 points the first time around.

Now you’ve got a “strong end to the season ” storyline that lends to the idea that Castillo just needed time to work things out, especially with the lockout. Avoiding collapse means the players will rally to this storyline, and writers will throw around the fact that Sean McDermott got a second chance.

Inside Novacare, Andy Reid’s already on a make-or-break 2012 season, so he might as well go out with his guys. Joe Banner and Howie Roseman will let Reid dig his own grave… and, voila. Juan, season two is born.

(Just to head everyone off at the pass, this is an awful idea.)

83% = Catch rate by Brent Celek. Celek’s 156-yard performance was impressive, even if he couldn’t quite punch his 73-yard catch-and-run into the end zone. In fact, it was the most receiving yards for a tight end in Eagles history since “Pistol Pete” Retzlaff in 1965. But even more important was the indication that Celek is really back, after dropping passes at a high rate in 2010.

0 = Eagles turnover margin, including the muffed punt. It’s amazing how many times these two teams tried to give the game away. The Eagles converted more of them to points, though.

20% = Jets red zone touchdown rate. Winning is easier when you don’t allow a touchdown every time the opponent gets inside the 20.

20 = Total all-purpose touchdowns for LeSean McCoy. What a ridiculously fine season for Shady. No one expected this type of historic performance.

3 = More sacks by Jason Babin. Some writers keeping trying to discredit Babin by linking him to the poor run defense. But that’s neither fair, nor particularly relevant. Even if he was a big problem against the run (which he’s not), 18 sacks evens that out a little bit.

Photo from Getty.

Calling All Asante Samuel Interpreters

Asante Samuel, as quoted by Les Bowen:

“We were top five [in turnover differential, at plus-9] last year, huh? What do you think the difference is?” Samuel asked. “You don’t want to say it? I got no comment.”

Who does Samuel blame most? Is it “the offensive line coach?” Maybe it’s those pesky front office boys “playing fantasy football with the owner’s money.” Or could he be casting well-earned blame on his teammates?

You decide.

(Via BountyBowl)

A Thin Veneer of Success

I know I’m the Negative Nancy of the Eagles blogosphere, unable to enjoy a close win against a division rival. Yes, the 18-play drive was neat and the defensive line played well against a bad Giants offensive line. But without a heroic strip-sack by Jason Babin with a minute left after the Giants had already driven 70 yards, we might be talking about yet another fourth quarter collapse.

Frankly, this win only covered up many of the same problems we’ve seen in every loss. Turnovers, red zone issues, missed tackles, dropped passes, blown coverages, stupid penalties — it was all still there. We even saw new problems emerge: the offense couldn’t get LeSean McCoy going until his final run of the night.

There are far more people than I expected who are re-checking playoff scenarios based on the thought, “If only they could keep playing at the same level.” Let me tell you, that level is at best .500 the rest of the way.

* * *

In other news, here’s Pro Football Focus’s charting of the Eagles pass coverage from Sunday night. We’ve talked about Nnamdi Asomugha’s problems, but if you saw Rob Gronkowski’s two touchdown game on Monday night, the linebackers should worry you much more.

Photo from Getty.