Can The Eagles Defense Carry The Offense?

Last week, I placed the blame for the Eagles' 0-2 start squarely at the feet of the offense. Despite this week's win over the Jets (yay!), Chip Kelly's favorite unit continued to perform woefully.

Yes, Ryan Mathews, subbing in for DeMarco Murray, rushed for 108 yards on 25 carries. But his numbers hide the fact that there were still far too many negative or no gain rushes (10 total). Between Mathews and Darren Sproles, the rushing game averaged just 3.47 yards per carry, a heady improvement from the prior weeks, but nothing to get excited about. Everyone on the offensive line, including Kelce, Peters, and Johnson, are struggling to run block consistently.

Meanwhile, despite being sacked just once, Sam Bradford played another horrible game. His final numbers were 14 for 28 (50% completion rate) for just 118 yards. One touchdown and zero turnovers, if you want to focus on that. But his accuracy was poor, his ball placement terrible, and he has zero guts to throw the ball downfield, one of the only things that might give the running game enough room to breathe. See more at ChipWagon, as always.

All of which leads to...

The #Eagles offense is regressing. 2013: 6.3 yards per play 2014: 5.6 yards per play 2015: 4.5 yards per play
— Phil Bicking (@p_Red) September 28, 2015

Really bad. So the question is, until the time the offense recovers (assuming that's in the cards?), can the Eagles defense carry the team? And on that front, at least, there are some promising signs. To the stats!

Through three games, the Eagles have given up the 5th-fewest points per drive (1.42), the 9th-fewest yards per drive (26.9) and the 10th-fewest plays per drive (5.6). The run defense has been fantastic—allowing a league-low of 3.1 yards per rush and zero rushing touchdowns. Most important, they've forced turnovers on one out of every five opposing possessions. To keep it going, we'll need more Walter Thurmond ball-hawking and disruption at the line of scrimmage (Brandon Bair sighting FTW).

The worrisome note is that the Eagles haven't gotten consistent pressure on quarterbacks. The defense ranks 8th-worst in sack rate so far. Overall, this isn't terribly surprising. The two-gapping scheme means players like Fletcher Cox are responsible for the run first, then the pass second. Neither Connor Barwin nor Brandon Graham are consistent man-beaters on the outside. And now the top two middle linebackers are hurt. Billy Davis needs to mix in some good blitz concepts to get pressure if this defense is going to sustain itself.

Three games is also quite a small sample size, especially when about half of that time the Eagles faced Brandon Weeden and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Luckily, due to a combination of easy schedule and injuries, the Eagles aren't scheduled to face many top quarterbacks down the stretch. The next three games match up against Kirk Cousins, Luke McCown, and Eli Manning, with Cam Newton as the pre-bye week chaser.

Still, that we're having this conversation at all is a good sign. The defense was atrocious two years ago, and improved to average or slightly above last year. If it can take another leap, that's a huge deal for this team—especially if the offense can't turn it around.

How Cutting DeSean Jackson Continues To Hurt The Eagles

The following is an article I wrote that originally appeared in the Eagles Almanac 2015 with the title "Keep Your Options Open: What Chip Needs To Learn About The Cap." It's a couple months out of date, but the larger points remain valid, especially after the discussion of Chip Kelly's value-destroying tendencies as GM made it as far as ESPN radio this week.

One of the most ironic things about Philadelphia sports fandom is how much overlap there is between supporters of Chip Kelly and those of 76ers general manager Sam Hinkie. Sure, on the surface there are plenty of reasons why that might be the case. Both media-shy leaders are smart, ruthless, and seem to have a plan to get their teams to the (eventual) Promised Land. But the comparison breaks down quickly, because Kelly and Hinkie have nearly opposite philosophies when it comes to running a sports team.

As Sixers fans will be happy to tell you, Hinkie has an incisive understanding of NBA economics. He knows that a championship basketball team needs one or more star players, and is willing to trade anyone and hoard draft picks and salary cap space for the eventual day when he can acquire those stars.

While the jury’s still out on Hinkie's eventual success, one of the GM's best qualities is his full embrace of optionality. What is optionality? It’s the ability to adapt your plans on the fly, to give yourself as many ways to reach your goal as possible. Essentially, it’s making flexibility a priority in long term planning. Speaking to the media in February, Hinkie explained optionality in a way Kelly would love:

“I believe a lot in optionality—a lot,” he said. “I believe a lot in flexible. I believe a lot in making a decision as late as you possibly can to gain as much information as you can… We talk a lot about being a triple-option quarterback. Hold the ball in the fullback’s gut until you read the defensive end. Hold it as long as you possibly can. That is really important in part because you know so much more. Sometimes you don’t. Some of you know exactly what you knew before. Sometimes the world changed and you know a lot more than you did.”

Free cap space and lots of draft picks fit perfectly into this worldview. Hinkie doesn’t want to close any paths to getting a superstar, and wants to maximize the number of chances to get one. It’s why he hasn’t splurged on any players in free agency. Locking the Sixers into long-term contracts at this point is fruitless. There are no meaningful wins to be had now, and more important: one albatross contract could jeopardize the chances to sign or trade for someone great later.

The Eagles are obviously at a different point in their competitive lifecycle, coming off the second of two 10-win seasons. And the NBA and NFL are quite different leagues. But Kelly’s goal as new head of all football operations should be essentially the same as Hinkie’s—maximize the chances for the Eagles to be as good as possible for as long as possible. That requires embracing optionality. Unfortunately, he either has no interest in that strategy or, more likely, has no idea how to execute it.

Let’s talk about how to build a team in today’s NFL. Sam Lynch, cap expert and past contributor to the Eagles Almanac, would tell you that the key to modern team building is that any additionalcap space you have will roll into the next year’s salary cap, granting extra flexibility (read: money to spend) down the road.

Today, that rollover maneuver is institutionalized in the league’s financial rules. Any cap space you have at the end of the year automatically (and legally) rolls over to the next year. If you were $5 million under the cap in 2014, you raise your cap by $5 million in 2015. If you’re $10 million under the cap in 2015, kick all of that into 2016. In real life, the Eagles passed an extra $15.7 million (the result of years of smart moves by Banner and Howie Roseman) into 2015, and thus have the third-highest team salary cap of $159 million.

That extra cap space represents real optionality, providing the ability to make moves down the road that would benefit the team. Other franchises haven’t preserved that flexibility. For example, the New Orleans Saints rolled over less than $2 million from 2014, and were so constrained by the cap that they had to trade All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham.

The takeaway is that cap space today is the same as cap space tomorrow, as long as you aren’t directly up against the limit. Signing bonuses that stretch cap hits over the life of a contract now are functionally the same as roster bonuses that take the hit entirely in year one. Whether you use $10 million in cap space today or $2 million each year for 5 years, it makes no difference because everything rolls over continuously.

If the structure doesn’t matter for cap purposes, the total guaranteed money does. The more money you conserve today, the more you have tomorrow, the more flexibility you preserve for future free agent deals and contract extensions. Guaranteed money represents the total cost you can’t avoid if something goes wrong. It represents a constraint on your ability to pursue other options. Fully guaranteed base salaries are also major warning signs, especially after the first year. If a player gets injured or becomes otherwise replaceable, you’re likely still stuck with him just because you’re paying him no matter what.

Roseman understood this. As Sam Lynch wrote in our 2013 Almanac, that year’s free agency acquisitions—Connor Barwin, Cary Williams, Bradley Fletcher, Patrick Chung, etc.—were targeted and relatively frugal. The team guaranteed all salaries and bonuses for the first year, an easy thing to do for starters, but limited the guarantees thereafter. The Eagles’ commitment to these players in year two and three were basically options they could pick up or discard at will.

If Hinkie were a football GM, or if Roseman were still calling the shots, I suspect the 2015 offseason would have looked much different. In fact, many of the biggest moves of the last two Kelly offseasons would likely not have happened. Let’s discuss some of those moves, and explain how Kelly managed to destroy tremendous optionality and waste valuable resources—both money and draft picks.

CUT: DESEAN JACKSON

No need to reopen old wounds. Jackson was always a polarizing player and annoying off-the-field personality, but he was (and continues to be) a bona fide speed demon wide receiver. The main argument (made by reasonable people) at the time of his release was that Jackson’s salary was simply too high for his production. In 2014, he was to be paid $10.25 million, a top five salary at his position. Certainly that’s expensive, but not unreasonable for a 27-year-old coming off an 82 reception, 1332 yard, 9 touchdown campaign.

But beyond its initial cost, the contract was tremendously favorable to the Eagles. The salary actually decreased in 2015 and 2016, bringing him down to 15th-highest paid receiver territory. But most important—there was zero guaranteed money left on the deal. Jackson, a three-time Pro Bowler, was locked up through his most productive years, until age 30, and if at any time he lost a step or couldn’t play, he could be cut without penalty. That’s solid value—and better optionality.

Releasing Jackson and receiving nothing in return was already value-destroying. But it gets worse because this type of decision compounds. With Jeremy Maclin recovering from a torn ACL, Riley Cooper needed to be re-signed—the Eagles guaranteed him $8 million more than Jackson had coming to him. As discussed, such a multi-year guarantee locks you in to keeping a player. In 2015, 75% of Cooper’s $4 million base salary is guaranteed, making him virtually uncuttable. So the Eagles are stuck paying their fourth-string wideout like the 35th-best receiver in the league—and keep trotting him out on the field to justify the investment, even after it’s clear he stinks.

Moreover, the Eagles had to replace the discarded young talent. They traded two picks to move up in the 2014 second round to draft Jordan Matthews, then added Josh Huff in round three. After Maclin left in free agency—a loss that hurts more without Jackson in the bag—the Eagles guaranteed another $1 million (and $2.3 million total salary) to Miles Austin, a 31-year-old who’s likely to be the fifth-stringer and play little special teams. Oh, and they used another high pick, their first round selection, to take Nelson Agholor.

Count it up: not only did the Eagles miss Jackson on the field in 2014, but they spent more than $12 million and four high draft picks (in total the equivalent of the #8 overall pick, according to the classic draft value trade chart) to replace his production. Instead of filling a new hole, that money and those draft picks could have been used to shore up the defense, an actual weak spot.

EXTENDED: DARREN SPROLES

Trading a fifth round pick for Sproles last offseason worked out great. It was one of Kelly’s best moves, as Sproles was a difference-maker in multiple games. But what about that contract extension? The Eagles immediately gave Sproles, who was due to be a free agent this season, $5.5 million in guarantees to extend him through 2016.

Given Sproles’ production last year, it’s easy to support this move. But think it through. The Eagles are giving a 32-year-old running back $3 million this year (half guaranteed) to be their third-stringer. He’s paid like the 18th-best running back in the NFL (AKA a starter), despite being only a role player. Sproles played just 29% of the team’s offensive snaps last year, a number that will only decrease in 2015. Not a huge error, but far from an efficient use of resources.

TRADED: LESEAN MCCOY

SIGNED: DEMARCO MURRAY, RYAN MATHEWS

Let’s stick with the running back position. Everyone talked about how backs at McCoy’s age (27) decline and how his high cap number made him expendable. But McCoy’s contract was remarkably similar to DeSean Jackson’s: expensive, but with no guaranteed money left at all. If you like Kiko Alonso, you can defend the trade. But the Eagles had exactly what you want for a star running back in his late twenties: flexibility. No guarantees meant that the Eagles owned three one-year options on their franchise leading rusher. As long as he performed, he’d be paid. As soon as he stopped performing, he could be jettisoned.

It was reasonable to cut expenses in the backfield while adding a high-ceiling defensive piece. But the moves that followed made it insane. McCoy would have been the fourth-highest paid running back in the NFL this year. Now Murray is. Worse, Kelly traded McCoy’s nonguaranteed year-to-year deal for Murray’s $18 million full guarantee. Murray, who is six months older and with a worse injury history, has guaranteed portions of his salary through the next three seasons, including the full $7 million in 2016 and $2 million in 2017. Anyone who ripped Shady for his potential decline should be livid over this much worse allocation of resources.

Oh, and the icing on the cake: another backup running back—the most replaceable position in the NFL—guaranteed $5 million in full guarantees over the next two seasons.

TRADED: NICK FOLES

RECEIVED: SAM BRADFORD

This trade was laughably one-sided. If he recovers from nearly two full seasons missed due to injuries, Bradford may (may!) be better than Foles. But is he $11.4 million and a second round pick better? Think about how we’ll feel next offseason, regardless of how both players perform this year. That additional money doesn’t help the team retain or acquire a franchise quarterback for 2016, Bradford or otherwise. And the second round pick in 2016 had the potential to be another Zach Ertz or Jordan Matthews-caliber player. The long-term value squandered here for a smidgen of upside this season is immense.

EXTENDED: DEMECO RYANS

Ryans is a 31-year-old middle linebacker coming off his second Achilles tendon rupture, with little to offer going forward. The Eagles traded for Alonso and still have Mychal Kendricks. They could have cut Ryans and saved $6.8 million in cap space to be used later (the benefit of his year-to-year nonguaranteed deal). Instead, Kelly gave him $4 million guaranteed (signing bonus + salary) to stick around for a year. Ryans is being paid the 15th-highest salary in the NFL at the inside linebacker spot for spot duty on early downs. That’s expensive leadership—and does nothing to fill another upcoming hole in 2016, when the Eagles likely let Kendricks walk. (Note: thankfully, after this was written, Kelly extended Kendricks. Still doesn't explain keeping DeMeco, though.)

CUT: EVAN MATHIS

Releasing Eagles lifer Todd Herremans didn’t bother me. $4 million saved with his release was a win, especially since the soon-to-be 33-year-old was beginning to look his age. Mathis was a different story. Twitter’s favorite Eagle was almost 34, but still appeared in great shape coming off back-to-back Pro Bowls. He was owed $5.5 million in 2015, not a cheap sum. And he wanted more. But Chip held all the cards in that negotiation. No other team was going to give a guard of Mathis’ age so much coin. He could easily have forced Mathis to play out his year-to-year contract again in 2015. Instead, Kelly petulantly cut his starting left guard and opened a gaping hole in his already shallow offensive line.

We could go on and talk about some of the smaller moves, like guaranteeing multiple years of salary for special teams players, but the point has been made. Time and again, Kelly has proven that he cares not for value or flexibility in his deals. He’ll cut players and get nothing in return. He’ll throw extra draft picks into trades and pay for past performance instead of maximizing flexibility in the future.

Overall, Chip seems to see cap space as a resource to spend, and guaranteed salary as a reward rather than the shackle it can be for future roster maneuvering. Instead of maximizing flexibility in his decision-making, he implicitly dismisses the benefits of such a strategy. These are the moves of a man who doesn’t care about the long term. He wants what he wants when he wants it (generally right now), and when that costs too much and things don’t work out, what does he care?

Which leads us to our final ironic note: that the one person in the Eagles organization with the most optionality at this point is Chip himself. If at any point his grand experiment doesn’t work out, he’ll exercise the option he always has: to go back to college.

Year Two Begins: An Eagles Offseason Rundown

This time last year, fresh off a sickening 4-12 season and the long-anticipated firing of one of the best coaches in franchise history, we watched as the Eagles spun their wheels in a coaching search. Fresh off being rejected by some of their top candidates, the organization seemed to be turning toward Gus Bradley, although interviews with Bruce Arians, Brian Kelly, and rumblings about Ken Whisenhunt cast an ominous cloud over the proceedings. It wouldn't be until January 16th that Oregon's belle finally came back around and agreed to a surprise contract in Philadelphia.

Chip Kelly's arrival was met with lots of fanfare, and more than a few skeptics. I won't bother to link to those old columns written about the "college coach" and his "gimmick offense," but suffice it to say that no one's a skeptic now. If anything, we're still underestimating the job he did in his first year. Before the season began, I found all 113 teams in Football Outsiders' database that finished 20th or worse in both offensive and defensive DVOA. Those bad teams had an average overall DVOA improvement of +11.9% in their next season. Kelly's Eagles, as it stands now, posted a +37.8% increase, the third-largest jump on record.

But with an early bounce from the playoffs, the long offseason looms and more changes are inevitable. In today's NFL, huge improvement can always be followed by huge disappointment. In my opinion, the Eagles are much more likely to add to, grow from, and improve off of their 2013 success. But that's far from guaranteed. Here's where the team goes from here:

1. Prune The Dead Wood

Being only a year away from a 4-12 season, there are still a number of players on the Eagles roster who shouldn't be around at training camp next year, whether for reasons of age, performance, or both. Let's do a quick roundup of the top targets.

Todd Herremans: Even moving back to guard this season didn't seem to halt the Toddfather's decline. He's not the worst guard in the league, but Herremans was the weakest link on the offensive line and you can't expect him to get better heading into his age-32 season. Maybe you offer a restructured contract and the chance to compete for his job, but guard is one of the more fungible starting positions in the league. Time to see if there's a younger, less expensive backup who can take over.
Trent Cole: The Eagles' longtime DE-turned-OLB passed Clyde Simmons for second place on the Eagles all time sack list with a late season revival. Like Herremans, Cole is heading into his age-32 season and the third year of a contract extension. Despite his resurgence in the second half of the season, Cole never fully adjusted to his linebacker role and couldn't rescue the Eagles' moribund pass rush. We wish him the best, but it's time to move on.
Brent Celek: Another member of the old guard, Celek turns 29 before the end of the month. He proved his worth blocking, made some key receptions down the stretch, and finished with his highest DVOA since 2008. But Zach Ertz figures to replace him more and more as the down-the-field tight end. Celek is probably still a useful player on this team for his versatility, but he's not worth the $4 million salary he's due next year. Prime (Stache) restructure candidate.
James Casey: That was always a one year deal, disguised as three years. Not a bad blocker (and the Eagle could use an H-Back/FB from time to time), but barely saw the field the field for anything else. He probably would rather seek his fortune elsewhere too, although maybe he comes back on a reduced salary as the 3rd TE.
Jason Avant: While Riley Cooper and DeSean Jackson had big DVOA improvement, Avant was one of the few Eagles offensive players to decline this year. He had perhaps his worse season statistically in at least 5 years. Love the leadership, but Avant's not sticking around.
Patrick Chung: Another guy on a fake 3 year deal who should and will be cut posthaste.
Alex Henery: I'll go into depth on this once I can crunch more numbers, but Henery isn't worth keeping for beans.

2. Keep An Eye On

There are difficult decisions elsewhere too. Would be surprised if any are cut this offseason, but the team has reason to examine these relationships closely.

DeMeco Ryans: Leader of the defense and stout run defender who's a major liability in coverage. Turns 29 this summer and has a contract that's easy to do away with. Don't think you cut him yet, but the conversation about the future has to happen.
Cary Williams & Bradley Fletcher: Let's consider the two corners together. Using a broad stat like passer rating, both of these players were middle of the pack. On a good defense, each is probably a solid #2 corner. They're not going to shut down the other team's top receiver one-on-one, but they'll hold their own against most everyone else and get their share of victories. The question is how highly you value that kind of production. Both Williams and Fletcher have salaries that spike substantially in 2014. Do you let one go to make room for Brandon Boykin? Do you keep them both around another year and draft replacement(s)? Could a restructure/extension be on the table?
Brandon Graham & Vinny Curry: Both are young and relatively inexpensive, so they probably get another year in this 3-4 transition. But if the right offer came along, Graham especially could be on the block.
Jason Peters: Nothing big here but he's entering the final year of his contract. Peters was named to his fifth All-Pro team but looked like he lost a step. Eagles hope to already have his replacement on the roster (Lane Johnson), but we can't rule out an extension if he proves he's still capable. Remember, Tra Thomas manned the left tackle spot in Philly until he was 34.
DeSean Jackson: His salary goes up by over 50% in 2014. Hopefully both he and the team are happy with that. Or not.

3. Are They Worth Keeping?

Retaining your own free agents can be tricky, but this year there aren't too many questions. The big decisions come at wide receiver.

Jeremy Maclin: The biggest name on this list comes with a huge "What If?" label following his ACL tear last August. I was on record for a Maclin contract extension before the injury and still want him back. The question is how healthy he is and what kind of money he's looking for. The market for wide receivers isn't especially deep, but you don't often see guys get big money coming off knee injuries. A one-year deal with the Eagles might make sense for both sides.
Riley Cooper: The wide receiver went from racist problem-child to key contributor quickly. He has size, blocks well, and adjusts to deep balls better than most. But on a good team he's a 3rd or 4th wide receiver, and I wouldn't pay him more than that because he'll never be someone who can consistently beat single-coverage. In other words, let him test the market (where there may not be much interest) and only resign him at a backup rate.
Michael Vick: If he resigns himself to taking a paycheck as a backup, there are worse places to do it than Philadelphia. But maybe he's looking for one last shot at a starting role, and he could get it with the Jets, Jaguars, or somewhere else.
Donnie Jones: Fantastic job this season. Sign the man.
Nate Allen: Actually became the best member of the safety corps, which just shows how bad the safeties were. Let him walk.
Kurt Coleman: Bye.
Colt Anderson: Never going to be a competent safety, but still a great special teams player. Bring him back and let him compete.

4. Seek Improvement From Youngsters

The last two drafts have been tremendously successful for the Eagles, and they have more than a handful of young players who are forming a new backbone to this team. Their improvement (or decline) will largely decide how the team does in 2014 and beyond. It will also determine who deserves contract extensions and who might not be worth the trouble.

On defense, the young studs are Brandon Boykin, Mychal Kendricks, and Fletcher Cox. They've all shown flashes, but where is the ceiling? Meanwhile, Bennie Logan and Earl Wolff will be given every opportunity to win starting jobs, but both need to make big leaps this offseason.
On offense you're looking at Lane Johnson, who had a successful rookie season by mostly avoiding making news. All eyes will be on him next year, to see if he can take over at left tackle after Jason Peters. Zach Ertz also seems inline for a big year as the featured tight end in 2014.
Nick Foles' offseason matters the most. I'm not convinced he's a franchise quarterback, but he played like one in 2013. Defenses will study him intently next year, and he's unlikely to maintain his fantastic interception rate. Can he improve in other areas to maintain an edge? Foles has earned the benefit of the doubt, but we will find out.
As for backups: guys like Bryce Brown, Chris Polk, Dennis Kelly, Damion Square, Najee Goode, and Matt Barkley need to prove they're worth trusting. Does Casey Matthews get another year? What about Curtis Marsh, Roc Carmichael, and Julian Vandervelde? Lots of question marks.

5. Identify Obvious Roster Holes

Last offseason, the Eagles had gaping holes across the defense. They drafted a smattering of young players (Wolff, Logan), and added low-to-mid price veterans (Barwin, Williams, Fletcher, Chung, Sopoaga). Due to the relative success of that plan, there aren't as many problem spots as there were a year ago. Here are the main starting spots that need help.

Safety: It's easy to imagine a future where Wolff is the only guy left from last year, and he's certainly not a sure thing. Major upgrade still needed here.
Pass Rusher: The Eagles need to generate more of a pass rush. Some of that could come from improvement along the defensive line. But a dynamic pass rushing outside linebacker might make the biggest difference of anyone on the team.
Wide Receiver: At the very least you bring back Riley Cooper, but ideally you're looking at someone more dynamic across from DeSean. Plus, a new slot receiver to replace Avant would be nice.
Kicker: Forget field goals for a second. You need a kicker who can consistently reach the end zone on kickoffs.
Nose Tackle: Logan may be the guy, but my lasting memory of him from 2013 will be the Saints blowing him off the line of scrimmage.
Guard: If you jettison Herremans.

6. Plan For The Future

While you're logging the problems the team faces right now, it's also time to take stock of the future. Where will the team have holes a year or two from now?

Cedric Thornton is an exclusive-rights free agent (meaning he can't negotiate with anyone else). One of the few eligible players on the roster probably worth a long term extension.
Can't count on 30-something offensive linemen to stay healthy in the short term or sustain performance long term. Grab more depth on the offensive line.
Draft a quarterback. Always draft a quarterback.
Kendricks looks like a keeper, but Ryans may not have more than a year left. Time to get another young middle linebacker.
Boykin is probably a long term answer at cornerback, given his stellar performance in the slot. But tied to the Williams & Fletcher questions above, drafting more corners should be high on the list.

7. Find Difference-Makers In Free Agency

Building through the draft is great, but being active at the top of the free agent market is also important. I'm not talking about bringing in another Nnamdi Asomugha, but the Eagles will have plenty of cap space and few in-house players to spend it on. Howie Roseman and company must identify a few key players who can come in and not only fix problem spots in the short term, but are also good long term bets. Some candidates...

Jairus Byrd: If the Bills safety makes it to free agency, he'll command top dollar. You'd rather he wasn't going into his age-28 season, but he's an All-Pro caliber player still in his prime who would immediately lock down one of the Eagles' safety spots.
TJ Ward: Fellow second-team All-Pro safety may be slightly less expensive than Byrd. He's also nearly a year younger. Would be a great get.
Eric Decker: Again, I'd rather just bring Maclin back. But Decker is a much better version of Riley Cooper (albeit at a significant markup). There's also the underachieving Hakeem Nicks out there
Julian Edelman: Probably can go cheaper in the Avant-replacement department, but there aren't many better slot guys when healthy. Maybe Chip wants more upgrade here.
Brian Orakpo: Who knows what's going on in D.C. these days? Elite pass rushers don't come cheap, but Orakpo would fit right into a key role on the Eagles defense.
Donald Butler: If he makes to the open market, you could grab San Diego's young stud middle linebacker and jettison Ryans earlier than planned.

8. Refine The Scheme

To be fair, this is more than one-eighth of the offseason agenda, but it's the one that's least conditional on specific player debates. No matter who the Eagles bring back and who they add, the coaches have to adjust and prepare for a new season.

Chip's offense lit up the league, and ended up second only to Peyton Manning's Broncos on the DVOA chart. He'll be on every defensive coordinator's To-Do list this offseason. I have confidence in the head coach, since he's shown the ability to adjust his offense to two quarterbacks with opposite skill sets. But Kelly needs to stay a step ahead. Defenses stymied some of his schemes, and in some areas he became too predictable by the end of the season (see Cowboys and Saints defenders reading nearly every screen). New weapons will help on that front, but so will new wrinkles. I'm looking forward to seeing what he draws up in 2014.

When you switch to defense and special teams, it's worth noting that the team finished in nearly the same place as 2012 according to DVOA. The defense improved slightly, but there's still a long way to go. Patient, accurate quarterbacks (a species the Eagles were lucky to avoid for long stretches of the season) tore this defense apart with its weakness in coverage down the middle, complete lack of pass rush, and horrible missed tackles. Again, personnel was often at fault there, and this was only year one of a defensive scheme shift. But the scheme can't be as predictable going forward either. Time for Billy Davis to prove he can lead the unit to a renaissance.

All The All-22 You Need For The Wild Card Round

There has been a wealth of coaches tape coverage this season that I've been woefully negligent about linking to from this blog. Hopefully all of you have caught on without my help, but make sure to catch up on the work of our esteemed Philly analysts:

Sheil Kapadia has two All-22 posts this week. The first is on the introduction of the sweep run, with narrated insights from the offensive line. The second looks back at Mychal Kendricks' performance against Jimmy Graham in 2012 and against other tight ends in general. That'll be a key matchup in Saturday's wild card game.
Derek Sarley, meanwhile, took his usual scattershot approach over at the Daily News/Philly.com. Looks like Monte Kiffin's main advice to his defense was to hold early and often, but Nick Foles bears some responsibility for the offense's misfires as well. The QB missed opportunities and made some surprisingly bad calls on packaged plays. Hopefully that gets worked out this week.
Last but not least, Ryan over at Chip Wagon gave us more diagrams of new packaged plays and run game tweaks.

Is The Eagles Defense One Competent Safety Away From Success?

Alright, no.

But as I was watching the Eagles-Giants game on Sunday, I was drawn to this question. The Eagles defense has problems across the board. The new corners can at least tackle better than their predecessors, but remain inconsistent in coverage. Even at their best, neither Cary Williams nor Bradley Fletcher scares an opposing quarterback. Meanwhile, the front seven is a transitioning mess. Sopoaga barely shows up, and two-gapping hides last year's stud Fletcher Cox. Connor Barwin has been solid, but Trent Cole is hit-or-miss at OLB. Mychal Kendricks makes terrifically athletic plays, then falls down in coverage. The responsibilities in the run game are unclear. The pass rush is nonexistent, which has led to the bizarre move of making Brandon Boykin a rush linebacker.

This is all granted. It's a bad defense with a lot of personnel and scheme questions. But unlike the offensive side of the ball, where a great quarterback or running back can carry a team at times, defense often seems to be about your weakest link. A smart, patient, accurate quarterback can find your weakness and exploit it. Such was evident against the Peytons, but I'm not sure how much there is to learn from a drubbing at their formidable hands.

The Elis posed a much less dangerous threat. The Giants offense only scored 7 points in the two previous games. Yet they put up three times that on Sunday. Why? Again, there are many problems with this defense. The front seven, most notably, failed to register a sack until the end of the game, against a banged-up Giants offensive line.

But looking at the tape and the numbers, I'd single out safety as by far the biggest problem. The Giants only had three scoring drives. The officials gifted them the last one on a bogus pass interference call on Brandon Boykin. On the other two, 80% of the Giants' total yards were gained on four plays of 20 yards or more. What all four plays had in common was the Eagles' safeties.

On the Giants' first drive, Hakeem Nicks caught a 49-yard bomb from Manning, the second attempt in a row to split Nate Allen and Bradley Fletcher. Two plays later, David Wilson plunged into the end zone.

The second scoring drive, in the third quarter, started with a 26-yard pass to Brandon Myers where the tight end found a huge hole down the middle between Allen and Earl Wolff. Two plays later, Manning found a wide open Reuben Randle for 20 yards. Looked like Wolff should have been covering that zone, but ran with Myers over the middle instead.

Finally, the drive culminated in a disgustingly easy 24-yard TD pass to Randle. We don't have All-22 yet, but let's break that one down anyway. The Giants have three WRs, one TE, and one RB. The Eagles are going to play what looks like (again, pre-coaches tape) a variant of Cover One Robber. The defense is in man-to-man across the formation. At the snap, Allen (in blue) is going to drop into a centerfield role while Wolff rolls into the short middle. The rookie's job in Robber coverage is to help in run support if necessary, then read the QB's eyes and jump into those short and intermediate crossing routes.

Below, you can see what happens after the snap. Kendricks has blitzed, and DeMeco Ryans is looping around him (and possibly reading the running back). That leaves Wolff as the sole middle-of-the-field defender. At the top, Randle is going to run a slant against Fletcher.

Below, Manning has stared down Randle, but as he throws, Wolff hasn't moved much. Meanwhile, Fletcher is dropping further back guarding against getting beat deep in man. This leaves a big hole in the zone where Wolff ideally should be:

As Randle catches the ball below, the defense has failed. He's about to pick up a first down because neither Fletcher, who dropped way back, nor Wolff were there to stop an easy slant. Still, with three guys converging -- including Allen from his deep role -- at least it should stop there...

Except wait, no, that's not what happens. You can see below that Wolff was not only late, but he took a terrible angle at Randle and didn't even lay a finger on him. Ditto for Allen, who does this all the time. Randle scampers in for the easy touchdown.

It's worth pointing out that Boykin (bottom) is basically standing still in the last screenshot. If you re-watch the play you'll see that he slows down, seeing what we did, that the Eagles have three defenders set to shut Randle down. As the receiver breaks free instead, Boykin has an "Oh $&!#" moment, where he briefly tries to recover and help out. But it's too late.

So overall, what do we learn? The Eagles defense has a lot of problems, but the biggest mistakes all came from the two safeties. I'd venture that without those, the Eagles might have held the Giants to only 7 or 10 points. That's why I wonder how much better this defense would be with just one competent safety. Getting Patrick Chung healthy again will certainly help some, but I'm already looking ahead to the 2014 free agent class. Jairus Byrd? Donte (W)Hitner? An above-average player at that position would do wonders for this team.

Game Rewind: 15 Screenshots From the First 15 Minutes of the Chip Kelly Era

On Monday, before the Eagles' opener, I downplayed the notion that the Eagles would be able to put many wins together this season, noting that what we're really looking for is a season like Andy Reid's foundation-building 1999. I WAS WRONG.

Well, at least I was wrong about the team's potential to win games this season. Looks like the offense Kelly brings may be good enough to be more competitive more quickly than I expected. Not to mention exciting. I'm riding high off that win, especially the first quarter that became one glorious offensive wet dream.

Still, I'd caution against reading too much into Monday's game. Not only was the offense new, the defense was also unexpectedly shifty. That's a positive development from their listless preseason performance, but as the game wore on Washington adapted to Billy Davis' schemes (and he backed off some). Some flaws were exposed and others soon will be by opposing coordinators now getting a fresh look at Eagles tape. Without the Redskins' early turnovers, the Eagles might not have gone home as happy.

Because the game turned out to be so long, and the coaches' tape isn't up yet, I only managed to re-watch the first 15 minutes of the game. Here are 15 screenshots from that giddy first quarter... (Click to embiggen)

Most of what I want to highlight are variations on the zone read play Kelly loves to call. Below is one where Vick appears to be reading the slot corner. When he stays home to guard against the bubble screen, McCoy gets the handoff up the middle. Also note, the blue block is Lane Johnson, firing up to the second level after lining up on the right next to Jason Peters. Freezing one defender and then running Shady behind two tackles like Johnson and Peters is frightening:

Similar play below. Again, Vick is reading the slot corner (#26). Washington had that corner come on the blitz a few times, including this one. Reading him is a perfect counter. Vick fakes the hand off and throws a quick bubble screen to DeSean:

Then the Eagles take the above concept and add another option for Vick -- a pop pass to the tight end over the middle. Now he's reading the middle linebacker London Fletcher (#59) in addition to freezing the rest of the right side of the defense via the bubble screen threat (which he may change to given pre-snap read). When Fletcher turns to pick up Brent Celek, Vick hands it off to McCoy:

Like any other running play, success is contingent on the men up front maintaining their blocks. But because of the passing options, by the time McCoy gets to the second level, there's no one there to meet him. London Fletcher, with four Pro Bowls, 15 years of experience, and over 1300 career tackles, has taken himself out of the play:

Later we see essentially the same play run to the right. This time, Fletcher takes a step forward, looking at McCoy. Vick throws to a wide-open Ertz instead, picking up an easy first down:

Below is another zone read where Vick is either reading the LB or the DT. I highlighted the former, but it depends who you think Celek is trying to block. Either way the threat of the QB keeper makes it devastating when he actually hands off to McCoy -- who follows a pulling Jason Kelce into a hole manned by the unbalanced line of Peters and Johnson on the right:

The Eagles didn't play much defense in the first quarter, but here's one play we can take a quick break for. The Redskins execute a great screen. They manage to get Alfred Morris the ball with three linemen poised to crush Mychal Kendricks and anyone else. But Kendricks, showing this may be a breakout season, dodges two of them and makes a textbook open field tackle:

One problem I kept noticing was Vick being indecisive on what should be quick reads. Here the pre-snap read is clearly going to indicate throwing the bubble screen right away. Only one of the three DBs to the bottom is within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage:

Vick should throw this ball immediately in the screenshot below. DeSean is open and Avant is just beginning to engage the first DB:

Instead, Vick holds on to the ball and sprints out. This brings pressure on himself and allows the safety to come down. But worst of all, he's letting Avant block downfield for a couple of seconds before the pass is thrown. The referees called an easy offensive pass interference on this one:

Vick also needs to make quicker decisions under pressure. Below he has a free rusher in his face and instead of dumping the ball off to an outlet receiver (or just throwing it at their feet), he freezes and takes a dumb sack:

Alright, now check out the play below. It's another zone read sweep where Vick is reading the defensive tackle. He sees the DT crash down, so he pulls the ball and runs upfield. Todd Herremans springs to the next level to block the linebacker, while Brent Celek (obscured) tries to cut block his man:

Some people speculated during the live game that Vick ran head first into the scrape-exchange. But really this is just a simple execution problem. Celek's cut block is awful but slows down his man. It's Herremans who totally whiffs on the linebacker, leaving Vick exposed. Note, Vick probably would have had better luck running to the sideline instead of cutting back inside:

One of Vick's sacks came when Herremans and Johnson had some kind of blocking miscommunication. Herremans blocked down on the defensive tackle while Johnson eyed the blitzing linebacker. Neither of them picked up Ryan Kerrigan:

Before even helping Vick up, the rookie turned to Herremans to hash things out:

Eagles-Jaguars Preseason Thoughts: How To Combat The Scrape-Exchange

Is it too late to talk about the Eagles' third preseason game? Hope not, because that's what I'm about to do.

When we last talked, I was remarking about how bad Trent Cole looks in his new role. Shocker: he's still bad. In the few nickel snaps that he put his hand in the ground and rushed the passer, Cole got some good pressure (as he always has). But putting him in space does no one any good in coverage and it has so far hindered his naturally good run defense. Especially bad: any play that has him line up over the slot receiver and blitz. First, it's not fooling anyone. Second, he's too far away from the quarterback to do any damage.
Luckily, the rest of the linebacking core is shaping up well so far. DeMeco Ryans has been solid, if unspectacular. Mychal Kendricks was a force all over the field against the Jagurs, and was often brought on blitzes up the middle (with Cole dropping back though). On the other side, Connor Barwin continues to impress. His interception was the most athletic feat we've seen an awhile at linebacker. Interesting note: on that play, the Eagles kept their base defense in on Jacksonville's 2nd and 19, against 4 WRs and 1 TE. Odd choice.
I am a paying member of the Patrick Chung fan club. He's not a star, but watching him come up and make solid tackles is a revelation.
I didn't think Michael Vick was as horrible as the post-game narrative suggested. He held on to the ball too long a few times and threw one bad pick. But Vick also made some laser completions and showed ample mobility. He was never going to be as perfect as he had shown through the first two contests. Plus, the offensive line wasn't exactly in peak form early.
In truth, the offense Chip Kelly had Vick run seldom resembled that of the previous games. There was more under-center snaps and down-the-field passing routes than we were shown before. As some remarked, it looked at times more like an Andy Reid offense than one run by Kelly.
Sheil Kapadia has a good breakdown of what looks like the Jaguars using the scrape-exchange to combat the zone read. Here's what it looks like below. As in their typical zone read play, the Eagles let the defensive end go unblocked, with Lane Johnson crashing down on the guard, and Todd Herremans releasing to the second level. However, in the scrape-exchange, the defensive end is trained to immediately come down the line at the running back, forcing the QB keeper. The linebacker Herremans must reach arcs around the outside instead (away from the would-be block) and gets in Vick's face right away:

It worked great in the above play, but not only is the scrape hard to pull off, it's not all that difficult to combat either. The first way is simply for Vick to get better at running the QB keeper and executing the second option. On this play he ran vertically too quickly instead of laterally, negating any chance to throw the quick bubble screen to DeSean Jackson.
The second way is even easier: just don't run the zone read. Think about what happens in the above play if the Jaguars defenders get too comfortable executing the scrape, only to have the Eagles block normally. If Johnson and Herremans take on their defenders straight up and the linebacker comes around the edge instead of up the middle, there's going to be a huge hole for the running back. The offense can use further deception with an H-back in the backfield. That player come across the formation to lead blocker with multiple choices about who to attack. The below image comes from Chris Brown's (always excellent) breakdown of this technique:

Want another option? How about stop reading the defensive end? By mixing up the read, you can keep defenders unsure of their responsibility. Last time we talked about a play where the Eagles read a defensive tackle. Here's a similar play in which Vick reads the linebacker(s):

And here's even more variation. This time the Eagles read the end, but if Vick keeps it he's running behind a pulling guard in Evan Mathis. Bryce Brown picks up 11 yards to the left on this run after the zone read freezes the unblocked defender, but I wonder how many yards Vick would have gotten had he pulled it down himself to the right:

By the way, Jamar Chaney did seemingly everything possible to try to get cut over the last couple of years. What finally did him in? Not being able to block a punter on special teams. Ouch.
And what is the Toddfather doing below cavorting with the enemy, aka Jason Baboon?

Want more Eagles analysis? Don't forget to grab your copy of the Eagles Almanac!

Projecting the Billy Davis Defense

It's easy to make snap judgments about assistant coach hires and their past record on other teams. New Eagles defensive coordinator Billy Davis certainly doesn't have a sparkling resume as a coordinator on paper. But he has tons of experience in 3-4 schemes, and recently has employed more of the hybrid look that many fans were clamoring for when Gus Bradley was in town.

In Arizona, where Davis was linebackers coach for two seasons and defensive coordinator for another two, his preferred scheme was the "4-3 Under". The name is deceptive, because it's not a classic 4-3 look like we're used to seeing from the Eagles. It borrows elements from both the 3-4 and 4-3, and depending on the formation, can lineup looking like either. You can (and should) read about it directly from Davis' mouth here and here. But let me show you, to the best of my ability. Here's what the base 4-3 Under defense looks like:

Let's start up front and work our way back. If you focus on the two defensive linemen DE-NT on the strongside (left) of the formation, the look is similar to a lot of 3-4 schemes. The nose tackle should be a big run stuffer who ideally can occupy two blockers. He'll often come off the field in passing situations. On the strongside, there's a defensive end whose primary job is similar to the all-around 3-4 defensive end: get some pressure, but mainly stuff the run.

Coming to the weakside (right), you look more for pass rushers. Because the nose tackle will be occupying two linemen in the middle, both your defensive tackle and end should have mostly one-on-one matchups. This is where you want to get a lot of pressure. That defensive end, known as the "Predator" in Davis' scheme, is going to rush nearly every play, so he doesn't have to be as versatile as your typical 3-4 outside linebacker. However, he looks like that 3-4 player at times because he can move around, rush from a standing position, and occasionally drop into a zone.

Moving to the linebackers, let's start with the strongside (SLB). Last year in the Eagles' more typical 4-3 scheme, the strongside backer was mostly a coverage guy who handled the tight end. In this defense he's much more of the classic 3-4 OLB. He's going to stand up at the line and engage the tight end, but he'll often pass rush instead of dropping back into coverage. With a player like this, you're adding some of the great unpredictability of a 3-4 defense.

The middle linebacker in this scheme has to be someone willing to go up against offensive linemen. As you can see in the diagram, unless the nose tackle holds a double team, the MLB is heads-up against a guard. A slightly bigger "thumper" is necessary here. In contrast, the weakside linebacker is free to roam. Because he lines up behind three defensive linemen, he shouldn't have big blockers coming at him. While the MLB engages in the trenches, this faster player should be flying through the chaos to make the tackle.

The scheme is a nice change from the Wide Nine, not because that scheme was fundamentally unsound, but because the 4-3 Under is more flexible and unpredictable. Rather than rushing the same four linemen in the same way every down, you have a 3-4 OLB on the strongside who can cause havoc. You've also set up two of your presumably better pass rushers with great routes to the QB, while still shoring up the run game. On early downs you have a big bodied player clogging up the middle, and on pass plays you can take him out and focus on creative stunts and blitzes.

Importing Davis' ideas also looks good because, at least on paper, it seems perfect for a number of the defenders we want to keep. Fletcher Cox is a great attacking DT. Getting him one-on-one matchups on the weakside should be fantastic for generating inside pressure. The "Predator" DE looks like a great opportunity for older Trent Cole and/or emerging Brandon Graham to pin their ears back. DeMeco Ryans, at 6'1" and 247 lbs, should be able to admirably fill the MLB role, while speedy Mychal Kendricks slips right into the play-making WLB spot.

There are still personnel issues to sort out. Only the disappointing Antonio Dixon has the body type of the prototypical NT, although Mike Patterson has lots of run-stuffing experience. Cedric Thornton showed some promise at defensive tackle last year, but might not be a big enough presence to take on the 3-4 DE role on the strongside. Cullen Jenkins has played that role before, but at 32 he may not make it through cuts. Most importantly, the Eagles definitely don't have a promising candidate to play the strongside linebacker. Here's one description of that player:

The number one reason why more teams don't run a 4-3 Under is the difficulty in finding a player good enough to play the SAM. He needs to be big, strong, fast, and able to cover or rush the passer at any given time. He lines up on the outside edge of the TE at all times, and harasses him off the line, never allowing a free release, staying underneath on routes because you have your safety over the top. He also gets one-on-one matchups on the outside to pass rush.

It's worth noting that there will be a number of potential stud 3-4 OLB-types available at the fourth overall pick. That could be something to watch for as we get closer to the draft.

Want to read more? Check out these links for longer discussion: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.

Photo from Getty.