The Case For The Right Retread Coach

Sometimes the new shiny thing is the most attractive option. Sometimes it just seems that way.

In the Eagles head coaching search, most people are firmly against hiring a retread coach, someone who's been around the block once already. Sure, there are Jon Gruden supporters and Bill Cowher supporters, but most people would rather get Chip Kelly or Mike McCoy or some other new name. I think the Eagles probably agree with this philosophy as well. They've been strongly linked to college coaches and other coordinators, but Mike Nolan is the only retread they've interviewed so far.

Nolan is a poor candidate, if you use history as any judge. As I detailed on Thursday, Bill Belichick is the only example of a recently hired coach who went on to have great success at his second job after posting a losing record in his first. Trying to find the one diamond in the rough is a losing proposition.

But that doesn't mean that all second-chance coaches are bad. 32 have been hired since 1999 (not including KC's hiring of Andy Reid today). Many of those hires were predicated on the idea that the coach learned something from their previous failure. But I wanted to look at only the ones who earned their second shot with solid performance the first time around. I isolated 16 who had winning records and won at least one playoff game at their previous job. That list looks much more promising. Here's how they did (or are doing) in their second chance:

Let me break it down by color. Five coaches marked in blue are clear success stories. Dungy, Coughlin, and Gruden all won Super Bowls with their second team. Holmgren came close. I suppose Parcells in Dallas is more debatable, but he reversed three straight 5-11 seasons, posted a winning record, and formed the foundation of the reasonably successful Wade Phillips era. Then you have the four green coaches, who are current and relatively new hires. Three of the four — Carroll, Shanahan, and Fox — are currently in the playoffs and look to have bright futures. Too early to tell with Jeff Fisher in St. Louis.

I marked another three coaches in orange as special cases. Gibbs and Shell each came back to coaching after over a decade sitting on the couch. Hiring coaches who have been away from the game for that long is unlikely to ever work, and I doubt the Eagles are interested in any such candidates. Schottenheimer is also in this special category because Dan Snyder unwisely fired him after a single season in Washington. He won 8 of his last 11 games that year, and went on immediately to the Chargers, where he posted a solid .588 winning percentage over five seasons (although no playoff victories).

That leaves only four hires, marked in red, who really turned out poorly: Green, Seifert, Mariucci, and Mora Jr. Any coach could end up just as bad. But I look at the success rate, including three Super Bowl-winning coaches and three current up-and-comers and wonder if the Eagles could find a similarly successful retread candidate. If they avoided the Nolans of the world in favor of coaches with a winning background, they might have a greater chance of a favorable outcome. You would be looking at people who have already proven they can run an organization, win games, and get to the playoffs — even if they may not have reached the promised land yet.

Who might that be? Well, Jon Gruden is an obvious example. He did this once already, and is widely hailed as one of the smartest football minds around. Lovie Smith is another potential candidate. I've heard few rumors about where he might end up, which is surprising considering he had only three losing seasons in nine years in Chicago, and has built top defenses everywhere he's been. Both have weaknesses as candidates, but as cool as it would be to snag a hotshot like Kelly, history suggests a retread like one of them could be just what the Eagles need.

Photo from Getty.

This Is A Three-Year Job

I was trying to think of a worst case scenario for the Eagles reboot in 2013. And besides some sort of "one more year" scenario, I think the worst thing that could happen to this team is for the front office to decide they really only need to reload rather than rebuild.

There will certainly be the temptation to avoid the hard choices that come with committing to a full purge. Even with Andy Reid gone, Howie Roseman and Jeffrey Lurie may look at the large complement of veteran players that they've shelled out big money for and decide to hire someone promising a quick fix. Whether or not the hire would actually be him, Jon Gruden provides the inspiration for this selection. He went into Tampa Bay and in a year turned the Bucs from consistent contenders to Super Bowl winners. (Honestly, the outgoing coach in that scenario, Tony Dungy, makes a lot of sense in this role as well.)

On paper that sounds great. Why waste a year or two rebuilding the team when you can hire someone who promises to get you right back into the hunt? But to go this route would be to ignore the large structural problems this team is loaded with. You would be giving the Titanic a new coat of paint rather than addressing the larger concerns.

What are those concerns? How about a team that has far too many players in critical positions who are on the downhill slope of their careers. Players like Nnamdi Asomugha, who Todd Bowles is now blitzing on third down, and Michael Vick, who isn't getting any better. There's also an over-reliance on rookies and second-year players, some of whom are talented but all are inexperienced. There's a complete lack of depth at, really, every position, most notably offensive line.

Reid built the most sustained period of success this franchise has ever seen, but he didn't do it overnight. He came in with a three-year plan, and he executed. He cleaned house, picked the right quarterback, made a few key free agent signings but mostly built through the draft. This Eagles squad has been without that hard reboot for years -- and delaying it will only prolong the inevitable.

Just another reason to start rooting for losses...

Photo From Getty.

Odd Similarities: Are the Eagles the New Colts?

There’s been one NFL team for most of the last decade that employed steady stars across the offensive skill positions, including a top five quarterback with special intangibles, two Pro Bowl-caliber wide receivers, and a cadre of complementary weapons for their pass-heavy system. This team had a speed-oriented but relatively simple 4-3 defense with lots of player turnover. And the overall system, touted for years by a steady veteran coach, was in place for season after season as the team won multiple division titles and always pushed closer to the Super Bowl — before finally making it over the hump.

I’d ask you readers what team I’m referring to, but my title probably gave it away. The Indianapolis Colts, with Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and others were one of the best teams of the 2000s. After 10 victories in Tony Dungy’s first year as coach in 2002, the Colts won 12 or more games for the next seven years.

Perhaps this is a stretch (and feel free to call me out on it if so), but in many ways haven’t the Eagles become a mirror image of those Colts teams?

Start on offense. Clearly, Michael Vick isn’t the same type of quarterback as Manning, but both are dominant stars at the position that make defenses adjust to them. DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are the new Harrison and Wayne. LeSean McCoy can be Edgerrin James and Brent Celek can grow into Dallas Clark’s shoes. Along the offensive line the Eagles now have the same “genius” position coach in Howard Mudd — so presumably that unit will start looking similar.

On defense the Eagles are apparently moving away from the complex blitzes of Jim Johnson to the opposite read-and-react style that marked Dungy’s defenses for years. New defensive coordinator Juan Castillo has praised Lovie Smith’s work in Chicago, and the Bears defense is derived from Dungy’s Tampa Two. That new philosophy should fit the Eagles personnel fine since the Colts have cycled through young linebackers at almost the same rate.

NFL teams are built in all sorts of ways, and it would have been difficult in the past to characterize these two teams as particularly similar. Suddenly though, there are these similarities and coincidences. And I don’t think it’s a bad thing.

I’ve always admired the Colts from afar for their strategy, as well as for the consistency of their success. Part of that success comes from an adherence to one of Football Outsiders’ basic principles: “Offense is more consistent from year to year than defense, and offensive performance is easier to project than defensive performance.” Colts GM Bill Polian built a consistently above average offensive unit from Manning on down, and then allowed the defense to shift around and eventually luck into a few good games in a playoff run.

Intentionally or not, the Eagles front office seems to have replicated that formula. Over the last few years they’ve focused on building a formidable offense for the foreseeable future and then started searching for defensive solutions. While the past is written for those Colts, it remains to be seen what kind of future this team has going forward.

Photo from Getty. Originally published at NBC Philadelphia.

What's the Deal with Michael Vick?

We’ve been through the whole gamut of emotions with Michael Vick: surprise when he was signed, excitement about the wildcat, boredom when he didn’t seem to have much impact, expectation that he was going to be traded, and now maybe even resignation that he might be Kevin Kolb’s back-up.

So what gives? Where are we with 7? And why have we been through such a bizarre offseason?

I think it all goes back to Vick’s goal when he signed with the Eagles. Tony Dungy and others said he could have gone in and competed for the starting job somewhere like Oakland, but the calculation was that spending a year as a back-up for an established coach and stable organization would help rehabilitate Michael’s image. Ultimately, the goal was to boost Vick’s value long term, so he could eventually pay off his creditors and return to profitability.

The tradeoff for this plan of seeking out a solid organization was that the Eagles finagled a second year into Vick’s contract. Now I don’t think he ever really thought this was a big problem. Vick assumed that after a year of rehabilitiation — even if he wasn’t able show much as a player — teams would be clamoring to get him. His calculation was that teams were worried about the bad publicity and not about his actual playing ability.

You can see this attitude at the beginning of the offseason, when Vick was talking about being a starter next year on Feb. 1:

“It would be fairly hard [to return to the Eagles as a back-up]. If I had to [come back to the Eagles], I would, just because I’m thankful.”

In other words, Vick really didn’t want to come back to the Eagles. He was ready to move on. Had he really learned anything with Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb? Doubt it. But the bankruptcy plan said it was time for a starting job for the self-stated “Top 10” quarterback.

On March 9th, the Eagles picked up Vick’s $1.5 million roster bonus, and I think Michael was genuinely surprised:

“I think the entire organization knows that I want to be a starter. I’ve reiterated that to Marty [Mornhinweg] at the end of the season and coach [Andy] Reid. They know that. They know I’m a competitor. They know I want to play. They know I want to win.”

Before the Eagles picked up Vick’s bonus, I think Vick already had one leg out the door. He had discussed teams he would like to go to, like the Carolina Panthers, and rode the “I want to be a starter” thing hard.

The problem is Vick really wasn’t helping his own cause. Any team who was looking at Vick as a veteran back-up (and his contract really isn’t expensive for one) must have been scared away by Vick’s insistence for a starting job. And the Eagles must have had a tough time getting the price they wanted for Vick as a starter (which was probably too high in the first place), because Vick was showing how much he wanted to get out of Philly.

By March 12th Vick still doesn’t really get it:

“If I’m in the same situation, I’ll just have to suck it up and go out and play and listen to what Andy [Reid] wants me to do and understand I’m there to play a certain role to try to help the Eagles win a Super Bowl. I can’t be a disgruntled employee, because that’s not who I am.”

Sure, the words are basically right. But listen to the tone. He’s willing to “suck it up” and go do his job. He doesn’t want to have to be “a disgruntled employee.” This doesn’t sound like someone who really wants to stick around.

I think these quotations also just speak to just how bad Vick is at understanding that his situation would be best served by being quiet. It’s like he took a crash course in jail on the T.O. school of negotiation.

A week and a half later Tony Dungy went on Dan Patrick’s show and discussed Vick:

Patrick: It’s been kind of quiet on the Michael Vick front. I thought he’d be with another team by now. What about you?
Dungy: You know, at first I felt the same way — that they [the Eagles] had so much money invested in roster bonuses and that type of thing. But I can kind of see [coach] Andy Reid’s point. You never can have too many quarterbacks and so they have got to make it worthwhile. If they’re going to let anybody go, they have to get what they feel is fair market value. So we’ll see what happens. I talked to Mike a few days ago and he’s very patient. If he ends up being in Philadelphia, he’s going to be fine with that and work as hard as he can.

My interpretation of this is that since Vick’s previous trade demands (which is essentially what those quotes come off as), both the organization and Tony Dungy talked with him and set him sraight. In other words, I don’t read Dungy’s quote here as “Michael is patient and willing to stay.” I read it as “I told Michael he needs to be patient and willing to stay.”

(Also, check out the answer to DP’s next question for Dungy’s take on Andy-McNabb.)

By March 25, Domo had new knowledge about Vick’s situation:

But a source in the organization said [keeping all three quarterbacks] isn’t likely. There is almost no chance Vick will return, the source said.

This is a very interesting report. It’s clearly not a purposeful leak, because (a) it would be in a headline, and (b) it actually goes against the Eagles’ interests by admitting Vick will/has to go.

The Eagles, of course, couldn’t let that slide. They leaked a story to their favorite cub reporter, Jeff McLane:

But a source said the Eagles aren’t likely to cut Vick and in fact, they aren’t shopping the 29-year-old anymore.

You could argue that this was early proof that McNabb was a goner and that Vick was needed to back-up Kevin Kolb. But I think the two things are mostly unrelated. Vick has not once been counted on by the Eagles to be a legit back-up quarterback. Throughout the season Kolb was the primary back-up, and Vick was the wildcat toy. When McNabb went down the Eagles were sure to get Jeff Garcia just in case. Michael Vick was an investment, not a real back-up; and I doubt Andy’s changed his mind on that this offseason.

The coach did call Vick the night of the McNabb trade though and give him some good spin:

“I look at the situation as not being part of God’s plan right now. I think when the opportunity knocks for me to go out and [start] again, then it’ll happen, and I’ll be ready for it. The only thing I can do is prepare myself and make sure I’m ready to play… I know I still have longevity in this league. I have to look at it as a positive. I am preserving my body and continuing to go out and learn and understand the game. That’s the value.”

Even describing the benefits of sticking around, Vick still can’t help but think and talk about starting again. He’s addicted to his own ability.

Domo then comes back and refutes the idea that Vick’s role as Kolb’s back-up is set in stone:

Reid never will admit this, but while he likes Vick as a Wildcat weapon, he doesn’t have a lot of faith in his ability to run his offense if something were to happen to Kevin Kolb this season. The Eagles still are hoping to move Vick, I’m told. But if they can’t, they really can’t afford to go with Kolb, Vick and a rookie project as their three quarterbacks.

Domo really seems to have some small tap on the Eagles organizational thinking and the general feeling at NovaCare — not to mention his theory jives with what we saw during the season. He’s not out there blasting the latest rumor from team sources, and the Eagles front office keeps putting out reports that put him down.

Like this one to Geoff Mosher:

  A team source verified that the Eagles plan to keep Vick for the 2010 season unless another team blows them away with an offer, which isn’t likely to happen.

At least Mosher presents his report with some skepticism, unlike McLane.

The truth is that Michael Vick doesn’t fit into any of the Eagles quarterback plans. Andy likes to have a veteran who is well-versed in his West Coast Offense behind his starter: Koy Detmer, Jeff Garcia, AJ Feeley. Vick can’t provide that security. Which is why we hear that the Eagles have had discussions with Garcia.

Vick also doesn’t address the need for a young, developmental quarterback for the Eagles future back-up. I’ll take a closer look soon at some of the possible quarterbacks the upcoming draft, but overall I think people who are linking the Eagles to Tebow are missing the point. Andy believes he has his “Donovan” for the next decade in Kolb, now he needs to find his new AJ Feeley — not another wildcat toy.

At the end of the day I still think the Eagles will trade Vick at some point this offseason. Andy may have improved his opinion of Vick enough to let him back-up Kolb, but there has been no evidence of that. A trade may not come soon, or even before the draft, since 2011 conditional picks might be in order. But if I were a betting man, I would wager that by September the Eagles quarterback corps goes: (1) Kolb, (2) Garcia, (3) middle-round prospect.

Where Vick Will Go: The Breakdown

So, as we’ve already done with McNabb, it’s time to breakdown where Michael Vick might end up.

Maybe I didn’t make it very clear last time, but my thoughts on distinguishing landing spots for McNabb and Vick is simple. I see three largely distinct groups of teams looking for quarterbacks this offseason. There’s the group who should be interested in McNabb: contenders who just need a good QB to put them over the top (e.g. MIN, ARI, SF). There’s the group who should be looking to the draft: teams rebuilding long term (e.g. STL, CLE, SEA). And then, somewhere in between, there’s the Vick group: those that don’t have the time or don’t want to fully rebuild, and are in some way desperate for attention (e.g. BUF, JAC, OAK).

This is definitely reductionist. For example, St. Louis might decide, as has been recently rumored, that Vick is a good bet for their franchise. Or Buffalo might want to go get McNabb instead. These are basic categories for who most likely will be interested — and you can definitely disagree with me.

But while we’re here, let’s define the Vick category a little better:

1. Not Blowing Up and Rebuilding: I would be shocked if someone like Pete Carroll traded for Vick. He has the luxury of a few years to rebuild his team the way he wants — and can therefore take the time to develop his own QB. Whatever team takes Vick has to be looking to win now.
2. Not a Contender Either: Arizona will not be risking their Super Bowl chances on the play of a quarterback who hasn’t played in two years. Unlike McNabb, Vick isn’t the last piece in the puzzle (and he may never have been).
3. Franchise Uncertainty: Trading for Vick is inherently risky. The cost might not be very high for him, but he hasn’t started an NFL game in two years. Are you willing to risk your job on his performance? To some degree, the front office and/or coach is going to have to feel pressured to make a bold move and have something happen right away. Any team with the time or confidence to rebuild slowly won’t be looking at Vick.
4. Desperation: This is what I think highlights the Vick-chasers most. Vick has maybe always been more hype than hero, and after two years away from the game that is definitely the case. Plus, he’s still a PR risk (although not as much as he was before the Eagles took the hit). He still can be an exciting addition to a team looking to return from obscurity — or just attract more fans.
5. Need a QB, and Maybe Don’t Want to “Try Again”: Kind of obvious, but this team can’t be set at quarterback. However, I think that they might be more likely contenders if they’ve already been burned once with a QB. San Francisco and Oakland fit that bill — both having tried and failed with #1 overall picks.

So that’s the basic outline we’re talking about. Desperate, attention-seeking, uncertain, middling teams. Who, per the rumors about Vick, fits this bill:

• Oakland Raiders: Oakland was rumored to be interested last year, but Vick (or Tony Dungy) supposedly turned them down. Vick is everything Al Davis loves — speedy, flashy, big arm. And having already been burned by JaMarcus Russell, trading for a starter makes more sense. Of course, little Oakland does “makes sense.” Then again, that may be a mark in their favor.
• Buffalo Bills: Could be interested in McNabb, but the team reeks of desperation to me. They’re trying to stay relevant while rumors swirl about a move away from upper NY (See: move for TO). New coach who probably won’t be around long enough to mentor a new QB could be interested in Vick.
• Jacksonville Jaguars: As I already talked about, the Jags could be an ideal spot for Vick. David Garrard hasn’t wowed anyone, and everyone knows that their biggest problem is attendance. They have to get a game-changer this offseason to reverse that trend — whether that’s Tim Tebow or Michael Vick.
• San Francisco 49ers: I still think they’re more likely McNabb suitors, but if Mike Singletary likes Vick and wants to work with him, don’t count this out.
• St. Louis Rams: Apparently there’s been interest, but I think Spags would be better suited continuing his long-term rebuilding plan.
• Cleveland Browns, Seattle Seahawks: Other teams with new regimes and long-term strategies. See above.
• Carolina Panthers: Also mentioned them with McNabb, but this could be John Fox’s last year. If he doesn’t want to tie his future to Matt Moore, Vick could be an option.
• Miami Dolphins: I know some people suggest this. Not likely. Chad Henne is their guy. (This also goes for DET, TB, KC)
• Washington Redskins: If they weren’t in the NFC East, I’d say Daniel Snyder’s team would be in hot pursuit.

The takeaway: it’s tough to tell who’s really interested in Vick and who’d be willing to send a conditional pick for him. If the Eagles are forced to drop him before his bonus comes up then a lot of teams could be inquiring. Ultimately, though, I think the Jags take Tebow and either Buffalo or Oakland send something to the Eagles for Vick.

Thoughts?