Let's Not Panic Just Yet

While I missed the Eagles-Steelers game live, I certainly caught the harsh real-time reaction to the loss. However, once I caught up on the game myself yesterday, I was surprised how little cause for alarm I saw. Sure, the Eagles lost. But not all losses are created equal.

The Eagles lost by 2 points, on the road at a good Pittsburgh team. That, on its face, should be enough to keep the sky from falling. The Arizona loss and even the Cleveland win were both more alarming.

For starters, the defense continues to play well overall. They went into the game 2nd in defensive DVOA, and allowed only 16 points to a Pittsburgh team that averaged nearly 26 per game through the first three weeks, was coming off its bye, and returned its top running back. I don't see much to complain about with that performance.

Granted, there are shortcomings on defense that need to be shored up. The defensive line got pressure on Ben Roethlisberger, but failed to record a sack. The run defense was lacking at times, especially when Fletcher Cox was on the sidelines. And Nnamdi Asomugha continues to show that he's not a bad corner, but certainly a limited one. But these are complaints at the fringes of success.

The bigger question marks were on offense, but even there I see more silver linings than storm clouds. For the second straight week, Andy Reid toned down the offense, keeping the run-pass ratio under control while providing easier routes for Michael Vick. Vick responded with his second straight solid week through the air: completing two-thirds of his passes, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. And the offense left multiple plays on the field. Obviously there was the fumble down at the goal line, which is just killer bad luck. The Eagles also should have received a defensive pass interference call on Ike Taylor against DeSean Jackson in the second quarter. That would have put them in position for another score.

The biggest problem, which we already knew going in, was the offensive line. They don't have the individual players to match up well, but they could *ahem* muddle through if only their communication was better. The Steelers' zone-blitz scheme isn't easy to protect against, but you can't have rushers coming free at the quarterback if you want to win in the NFL.

One final point, regarding Michael Vick's fumbling. There's a lot of hand-wringing over it, even people saying he should be benched. I don't believe that. Vick has always been rather fumble-prone, with a rate often hovering around or just below 10% of all sacks and runs. He led the NFL in fumbles twice, in 2004 and 2010. But through all that, he's never had a fumble rate as bad as he is putting up this year.

A few weeks back, I suggested that Vick's interception rate was ridiculously high, bordering on a statistical anomaly. Since then, after two interception-less games, it has dropped to just a tick under last year's number. At this point, I'm looking at Vick's absurd 17.4% fumble rate and thinking the same thing. He's probably never going to be great at controlling the ball, but this poor trend isn't likely to sustain itself either.

Photo from Getty.

The Eagles Early Offensive Line Struggles

The Eagles offensive line didn't have a fun time early in Sunday's game against the Giants. In fact, they were getting beaten at nearly every turn. Michael Vick was taking hits, LeSean McCoy couldn't find holes. It wasn't pretty.

Dallas Reynolds and Demetress Bell played especially poorly, but the scariest thing is that they weren't the only culprits. The whole line was getting beat, sometimes one-on-one and other times because of communication breakdowns. Check out a bunch of the plays below:

Kiwanuka, playing nose guard, manhandles Reynolds while Mathis looks the other way.

McCoy blocks the blitzer, but Watkins doesn't get help from Reynolds on Rocky Bernard.

Reynolds, pulling, whiffs on Chase Blackburn. Bell also can't sustain block on JPP.

Herremans gets beat inside by Justin Tuck.

Communication issue leaves blitzer unblocked.

More All-22: How The Eagles Offense Made It Easy On Mike Vick; Hey Look, An Eagles Run Game!

The New Danny Watkins

I'll have more (and nicer) stuff tomorrow from my Game Rewind adventure, but tonight I'll just leave you with this masterpiece.

Previously: Breaking Down the Eagles First Two Drives

Same Old Eagles? Not So Fast

The prevailing reaction to Sunday's season opener was, "Here we go again." The Eagles won, despite showing shockingly bad tendencies across the field. Anyone who was optimistic all offseason that the problems of 2011 were behind us was sorely mistaken.

But the more I think about the game, the more I think that narrative rings false. In fact, the team we saw on Sunday looked markedly different than last year's version — for better and worse. This version looked like a Bizarro Eagles — comically exaggerated in some ways and a complete 180 turn in others. All told, I may actually be more optimistic today that I was before Sunday.

Let's start, as one should, with Michael Vick. The conventional wisdom was that whatever was wrong with Vick in 2011 could be fixed in a few months of one-on-one tutelage with Marty Mornhinweg. I was never so sure. To me, Vick looked like a flawed quarterback last year. I use the word flawed purposely. He certainly wasn't the elite player we glimpsed in 2010, a Superman quarterback. But for 2011 Football Outsiders ranked him 12th in passing DVOA, the second-best mark in his career — by far — and just a tick below his 2010 performance. Other measures were even more positive: lowest sack rate in his career and highest yards per rush since 2006, despite staying in the pocket more than ever.

Vick's biggest problems in 2011 were accuracy and turnovers, both of which reverted back toward his career averages. That alone, though, doesn't make Vick a bad quarterback — just flawed. And they are flaws Vick is unlikely to snap out of at age 32. But the Vick we saw against the Browns wasn't merely flawed, he was broken. He posted a shocking single-game -50.7% DVOA, third-worst in the NFL, in front of only Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden (-106.4% LOL). He threw four interceptions, tying a career-worst. His quarterback rating was 51.0, worse than in all but one game he's played in the last two years.

Derek gave you the pessimistic scenario for Vick's problems — that Andy Reid and company have actually made him worse by tinkering. There is truth there with regard to Vick's regression in 2011. He was at his best when he was playing off the cuff, taking the world by storm in 2010. But in terms of Sunday, we may have watched something akin to a statistical anomaly. It is unlikely that Vick has permanently fallen back to the realm of overmatched rookies, unable to see linebackers dropping back into coverage. You can't wave away his performance with a "rusty" tag, but what you saw is basically worst case scenario Vick. I would be surprised if he is still be playing at that level next week, let alone six weeks from now.

That is, assuming the offensive line gets fixed. Bizarro Eagles exaggerated Vick's flaws — as well as the line's problems. King Dunlap is a poor substitute for Jason Peters, but he wasn't the (main) issue. There were simply too many communications breakdowns. Sheil Kapadia ran through every hit Vick took, and by my quick examination, eight of those involved either a completely unblocked rusher or one that was handed off improperly. Considering four out of the five linemen played together last year, that shouldn't happen. Nor do I expect it to going forward. Molding the line into a coherent unit is what Howard Mudd gets paid the big bucks to do — and it's an easier fix than having to replace overmatched players.

Clearly the play-calling was also an issue. Why did the Eagles keep four running backs if they aren't going to use them? Take some pressure off of Vick by running more of the offense through LeSean McCoy. And if you're worried about McCoy breaking down, give some carries to Bryce Brown (or Dion Lewis or Chris Polk). Last year, right after the Eagles fourth preseason loss, I advocated unleashing McCoy. Coincidentally, that was right after Vick played in a similarly crappy manner to last Sunday (2 TDs, 4 INTS, 315 yards passing). Marty Mornhinweg listened (or at least had the same thought), and proceeded to call Shady's number for 58 rushes over the next two games. He didn't disappoint — racking up 311 yards and three scores. Mornhinweg and Reid aren't complete idiots. They know last week's pass-run ratio was untenable, and nearly cost them the game.

Thus, in my mind, the team's three biggest problems are eminently fixable (four, if you count an extreme number of penalties). Moreover, their biggest liability from last year — the defense — showed signs of improvement. Look, it's hard to draw conclusions playing against Brandon Weeden & Co. That offense looked pitiful. But Juan Castillo's defense was rock solid. They did everything they were asked to do and more.

Cleveland had the fourth-highest average starting field position in the NFL on Sunday, courtesy of the five Eagles turnovers. They were also tied for first (with the Eagles) in total number of offensive possessions (15). Despite that, the defense only allowed three measly field goals. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie stole two interceptions (Asante Samuel who?). The defensive line stacked up against the run better than we've seen since Jim Washburn came to town. DeMeco Ryans put last year's linebackers to shame with his burst through the hole.

No one should expect this level of dominance from the defense against the Ravens or other opponents, but it seems well on its way to competence and more. If you're looking for a reason for optimism, this is it. The offense is unlikely to be as bad as we saw in week one. The defense looks better than it has in quite some time. Is it too early to talk playoffs? (Yes, for the record.)

Photo from Getty

Recap: Eagles vs. Browns

I don't know what everyone's all excited about. This is why the Eagles schedule five preseason games in the first place.

Michael Vick didn't have his greatest game. In fact, he was downright bad, with four interceptions and a few more close calls. But, as Andy Reid said after the game, Vick was just "rusty." After he injured himself the last two times he took the field, it was good to see Vick back out there today, and his ability to "just keep shooting" will help him once the real games start.

What's that? Yes, you're right. Vick was supposed to show improvement this year, considering he had his "first real offseason as a starter" with quarterback gurus Reid and Marty Mornhinweg. But I'm sure that "new Vick" is coming soon. The fact that he looked worse than ever, making poor decisions and forgetting that linebackers existed in coverage, is a small thing. Vick needed to get out some of the bugs, and what else is a dress rehearsal for?

That must have been the reason Reid and Mornhinweg didn't use LeSean McCoy. Vick had 65 pass drop backs in the game, while the Eagles All-Pro running back—who the Browns demonstrated an inability to stop—was a sideshow for most of the afternoon. Better to keep McCoy fresh for the games that count, I suppose, and let Vick get more practice throwing interceptions.

That goes double for Jeremy Maclin, who racked up yardage and a touchdown, but wisely avoided blocking down the field and dropped a few balls just for practice. We wouldn't want the biggest of the Eagles' healthy wide receivers to actually demonstrate toughness yet.

We can probably also discount the inebriated performance of the offensive line. Howard Mudd was just using this game to test the replacement referees' definition of holding and roughing the passer. When Danny Watkins let his man stream by him off the snap, I'm sure it was in service of one of those goals. Same with the time that McCoy tried to run behind his left tackle, and the King in the North just stood there, idly watching.

Besides, the defense looked great, didn't it? Let's not discount their improvement. Yes, it was against on offense that probably had trouble tying its shoes in the morning, but that's no matter. Brandon Weeden and his 5.1 passer rating is surely up to the quality of the rest of the quarterbacks the Eagles will face. And the Browns' other offensive weapons were at least average, right?

Save your outrage. Embrace "rusty." And wake me up next week in time for the season opener against the Ravens. There's a game I'm looking forward to.

Photo from Getty.

Danny Watkins Would Lose At Limbo

Tommy Lawlor, in his official Detailed Game Review (emphasis mine):

WATKINS - The gameplan called for King Dunlap to block to his inside a few times on pass plays. Danny would then do a short pull and take on the edge rusher. I’m not a huge fan of this tactic. Very mixed results. Danny had a couple of good blocks. Jake Bequette gave him fits on a couple. Up and down beyond that. There are times when he anchors and does a really good job. There are other plays where athletic moves get the best of him and he’s then holding on for dear life. I do like the fact that he won’t give up when beaten. Smart. Do what you can to protect the QB/RB.

Not to pick on Tommy, who covers both the good and the bad here, but at some point you've lowered the bar too much.

Rewind: Notes on the Eagles-Cowboys Game

Michael Vick Eagles Cowboys Shotgun

One of the unheralded stories of 2011 is the regression of Michael Vick. After borrowing Superman’s cape last season, Vick returned to mere mortal status once again. Just as a simple measurement, in 2010 he had quarterback passer rating above 90 in 10 out of his 12 games. This year, he’s only had 5 out of 12.

However, things seem to be picking back up for Vick as he and the coaches are potentially finding some answers for him. He’s had back-to-back 100+ QB rating games for the first time this season over the last two weeks.

I charted all of Vick’s passes this week and noticed that he’s hardly ever doing three step drops from under center anymore. In fact, I counted only two of those, and both went for incompletions.

The majority of pass calls (20 of 36) involved Vick in shotgun, and half of those added five step drops on top of the pre-snap depth. Whether his height factors in to this I can’t say, but he’s clearly more comfortable and effective in shotgun, and generally as far back from the line of scrimmage as possible. The added depth gives him more time to find deep receivers and also more space to scramble if necessary.

* * *

Danny Watkins is awful. I want to really emphasize this point. After watching him fairly closely the whole game, it’s clear that he didn’t deserve to be on the field.

At least half a dozen times, Watkins single-handedly let his defender get by him (often instantaneously) to get pressure on Vick or a backfield tackle on LeSean McCoy. It was Kyle DeVan, Stacey Andrews, Winston Justice-against-the-Giants bad.

Tommy Lawlor wrote of Watkins, “Solid game. Got driven back in pass pro a time or two, but did stick with the blocks.”

I wish that were the case. In reality, Watkins needs to make a big leap in the offseason to be even an average NFL starter.

* * *

Speaking of below replacement level starters, Jamar Chaney was almost as bad.

If you run straight up the middle and fail to block the middle linebacker against 31 teams in the NFL, it must be a tackle for a loss more often than not. Against the Eagles, it’s a nine yard gain. I’m not exaggerating when I say that the run defense frequently looks like it only has 10 players out there.

Chaney demonstrates no ability to get off blocks. But more importantly, even when unblocked he’s indecisive and slow. You can tell that he’s athletic enough to run with most tight ends, but in run defense he never charges the line. At best he’s a speed bump 3 yards into the run, but most of the time he doesn’t even provide that.

* * *

Just to prove I’m not always negative, let me say some good things about Casey Matthews. He looked, frankly, great this week. Speedy, instinctive, good in space, and quick to take on tight ends and running backs out of the backfield. I’d actually like to see him get some of Chaney’s snaps in the base defense next week.
Clay Harbor was instrumental as a blocker on the back-to-back end-arounds to DeSean Jackson. Set the edge with a hard block on Sean Lee the first time, then faked a block on Ware, shouldered Lee, and got up to the third level on Jackson’s second try. That said, there’s no reason Harbor should be one-on-one with DeMarcus Ware in pass protection. That led to a sack.
Brent Celek, on the other hand, continues to show me nothing but poor run blocking. But every week they add another brilliant tight end screen to the playbook, and he’s great at that.
Brandon Hughes got some significant looks as the dime corner, especially when Nnamdi Asomugha came inside to cover Jason Witten. Hughes was beaten once each by Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, two good receivers, both times he was targeted.

Photo from Getty.

The Rise of the Eagles' Two Tight End Formation

Clay Harbor

Sheil Kapadia wrote a nice post last week about how the Eagles are using Brent Celek this year. Cliff notes version: he’s pass blocking more and running routes less.

But recently I’ve been noticing another trend with the Eagles tight ends — namely, more frequent use of two tight end formations with second-year man Clay Harbor. That was just my anecdotal recall though, so I checked the snap counts at Pro Football Focus.

Last year, if you exclude the Week 17 back-ups game against the Cowboys, Harbor only saw the field on 21 percent of all offensive snaps after he started playing late in the season. For the whole team in 2010, the Eagles ranked 30th in the league with only 16 percent of offensive formations including two tight ends.

This year, Harbor’s playing time has increased to 29 percent, almost exclusively when Brent Celek is still on the field. That means the Eagles are now running two tight end sets significantly more than last year. However, even more than last year, Harbor’s snaps have increasingly come on run plays. He’s a run blocker on 58 percent of his plays, compared to last year’s rate of only 48 percent.

So, what can we gather from this information? For starters, it lends to the growing sense that paying for Steve Smith as the Eagles fourth wide receiver was unnecessary. Smith has only been on the field for 12 snaps the last two weeks, while Harbor was in for 37 snaps. If the Eagles are increasingly going to two tight end formations, the fourth receiver becomes even less important.

Another player that has become marginalized with Harbor’s increased playing time is Owen Schmitt. Last year, Schmitt blocked on 45 percent of run plays, but his performance was subpar. This season, his blocking has dropped to 19 percent of runs. Instead, Harbor is now in on more than half of them.

Finally, I wonder if the Eagles will be forced to keep three tight ends once again soon. Perhaps not if the coaches are only trying to get Harbor on the field more because he’s playing well. But if the two tight end sets become increasingly important to this offense? It might be necessary to add a third tight end to the roster at some point.

Photo from Getty.