Eagles-Patriots Preseason Thoughts: This Offense Is Going To Be Fun

I'm not fretting about Fletcher Cox. As Derek Sarley laid out quite plainly, the problem on those first few run plays was much more about spacing in the new 3-4 defensive lineup. The bigger problem was Trent Cole, who looked totally out of place as a stand-up linebacker. Maybe he'll get better, but I wouldn't count on it. The sample size wasn't large, but I thought Brandon Graham looked a lot more comfortable out there.
In nickel packages the Eagles tended to switch to a four-down linemen look, and Cole looked like his normal self there. Back in April I suggested that the coaches keep Cole as a down rusher -- even consider starting him at 3-4 defensive end. That latter option is probably off the table now that Cole has slimmed down for his OLB role, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him has a dedicated pass rush specialist in exclusive four-linemen looks before long.
As a broader point, the 3-4 defensive transition is going to be rough. Not only do some of the players not fit into their defined roles, but the spacing issues will probably continue. Good offensive coaches will exploit this inexperienced front, and Mychal Kendricks and DeMeco Ryans are going to get mauled at the second level.

On the touchdown pass, Sheil Kapadia says: "Vick said [DeSean] went deep because the Patriots had a single high safety." Jackson's ability to stretch coverage is even more necessary now that Jeremy Maclin is out for the year. If can't keep safeties honest, the run game and short passes become difficult.
Zach Ertz looks like he needs some serious work. He's not a speedy receiver (only 4.68 second 40 yard dash) and he looks totally lost blocking. Here Ertz is at the top of the formation letting Jerod Mayo (admittedly a good linebacker) get by him without so much as slowing him down. While the offensive line is getting a good push up the middle, Mayo comes in off the edge unblocked and makes the tackle:

Here's a cool play: a zone-read design where the quarterback is looking at the defensive tackle instead of the end. It's the Eagles' fourth play from scrimmage, with Vick deciding whether to hand off to Chris Polk or keep it himself. The typical zone-read we've seen in the NFL so far (and we also saw from the Eagles on Friday night) involves letting the defensive end come upfield unblocked. If he goes for the QB, you hand it off. If he goes for the RB, the QB keeps it. Same idea here, but Vick is reading Vince Wilfork at defensive tackle. If he had sprinted to his left to get Polk, Vick would have had a huge hole up the middle. Because he stayed in his lane, Polk gets the hand off and has two double teams to run behind on the right (click to embiggen):

Just as I was drawing this play up, Chris Brown posted an extensive review of Chip's play calling, including this one (with a gif). You should definitely check that out.
Brown talks about "packaged plays" as well, and Sheil has a glorious medley of screen caps on those run-pass options.
However, my favorite play of the night was the one below. What looked like a zone-read play to the left was really a play-action rollout to the backside. Vick has a clear run-pass option on this play and it's killer for the defense. This is something Foles doesn't present -- a dangerous running threat out of the backfield. The Patriots defenders who weren't sucked in by the play action aren't sure whether to converge on Vick or cover their receivers, so neither happens. Easy 19-yard completion to Riley Cooper:

Lane Johnson looked athletic and powerful. Sheil had good shots of him pancaking defenders and getting to the second level: here and here.
Fellow Eagles Almanac scribe Dan Klausner is trying to convince me that Chris Polk is ready for the big time. I'm open to the idea, but haven't seen it yet. Certainly he is the better pass blocker (see Sheil's screencaps here), but Bryce Brown is a much more dangerous weapon. Watching him explode through holes or grab passes out of the backfield, it's obvious that Brown's someone you want to have the ball. Perhaps it's a silly hypothetical, but I can't shake the feeling that Brown would have exploded through that hole for a first down on the Wilfork zone-read.
Nick Foles moved the ball very efficiently in the Eagles' first real up tempo test. See more from Jimmy Kempski.

For much much more on everything Chip Kelly and the Birds, buy the Eagles Almanac!

Head Coach Search Diary: Bill O'Brien

Who will replace Andy Reid in 2013? With this season spiraling out of control, that's one of the few relevant questions left to ponder. As such, I hope you'll indulge me in an ongoing series discussing potential top candidates for the Eagles head coaching job.

Who Is Bill O'Brien?

Bill O'Brien, 43, just finished his first year as head coach of the Penn State Nittany Lions. Growing up in Boston, his football lineage stretches back two generations. O'Brien's father played at Brown University, and his grandfather played for a professional team way back in the 1920s that used Fenway Park as home field. O'Brien and his two older brothers followed their father's footsteps to Brown, but while the others went on to law school and politics, Bill jumped straight from playing to coaching.

After graduating with a dual degree in political science and organizational behavior management, O'Brien bounced around college football. He was the tight ends coach at Brown in 1993, then became the team's inside linebackers coach the following year. In 1995 he joined George O'Leary's staff at Georgia Tech as a graduate assistant, then as the running backs coach from 1998 to 2000. He was promoted to offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, then assistant head coach in 2002, after which O'Brien moved on to Maryland as running backs coach for two years, then two more as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Duke.

The biggest move came in 2007, when Bill Belichick offered O'Brien a job as a lowly offensive assistant. Long time friend and scout (and former Eagles executive) Jason Licht set them up, but he was surprised that O'Brien would rather be a film lackey with the Patriots than a coordinator in college. “Most people wouldn’t have taken that jump because it’s such a risk and a leap of faith,” said Licht to The New York Times. “But what surprised me the most is that it was such a quick decision for him. He had so much confidence that this was the best way for him to rise within the profession.”

O'Brien, often working from 3am to 11pm, became close friends with Josh McDaniels, and after moving from wide receivers coach to quarterbacks coach he replaced McDaniels as offensive coordinator in 2011. As the Patriots cruised to a 13-3 record and Super Bowl appearance, O'Brien directed an offense averaged more than 32 points per game. Wes Welker had 122 receptions for 1,569 yards, and two tight ends (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez) combined for 169 receptions for 2,237 yards and 24 TDs. It was an eye-opening performance, even if O'Brien did benefit from Tom Brady, and it catapulted the young coach to the top of some coaching search lists.

The Jaguars got permission to interview O'Brien during the Patriots' playoff bye week, but reports conflict as to how close he was to that job. Jason La Canfora reported that he was a "top candidate" in Jacksonville, but that he pulled out of the process to take the Penn State job instead, replacing the legendary but embattled Joe Paterno. It's unclear why he took that job instead of waiting for a NFL position to open up. His agent, Joe Linta, told the Boston Herald at the time that "Everybody’s dream, like his, is to be an NFL coach." But just days later he signed with Penn State. O'Brien also apparently disregarded warnings of harsh NCAA sanctions. He told Rick Reilly: "I didn't know the NCAA was going to come in here and do what they did."

In any case, O'Brien has exceeded all expectations in his first season in Happy Valley. Despite losing key players to transfer and confronting huge off the field concerns, Penn State went 8-4 and he was named the Big Ten Coach of the Year (in the same season Urban Meyer went 12-0 at Ohio State). The way O'Brien has turned around the program, against all odds, has made him a much desired NFL head coaching candidate again.

Why Hire Bill O'Brien?

An O'Brien hire comes with many advantages. First of all, he has proven he can come into an organization and turn things around. There haven't been many worse hands dealt to a new head coach than what he's seen at Penn State in the last 12 months, and he's handled it perfectly.

You're also getting a college coach who has experience running an NFL system. While Chip Kelly's offense will be a risky transition, we know O'Brien's can work with professional players. Moreover, he proved that he doesn't need Brady to make it work. Importing the Patriots offense to Penn State, he turned former walk-on Matt McGloin, a limited passer who makes poor decisions, into a legitimate threat. Before O'Brien, McGloin completed only 54% of his passes with 22 TDs and 14 INTs in two seasons. In 2012, he completed 60% for 24 TDs and only 5 INTs.

Why Not Hire Bill O'Brien?

There are honestly very few reasons not to hire O'Brien. He has the experience, the success, and the leadership to succeed in the NFL. There is the much-cited notion of his contract, which requires a buyout of $9.2 million. But these days top NFL head coaches are paid an annual salary of $5-8 million per year. Most owners won't balk at negotiating for him at that price.

The real questions start with whether he wants out of Penn State after a year, anyway. I'm not sold on the idea that O'Brien will want to leave. He already chose the Penn State job over the NFL once, and despite his protestations, he must have known what he was getting into. Certainly O'Brien can use NFL offers as leverage to get a raise if he so desires. More to the point, (and maybe this is my Penn State fandom coloring my opinion) if he does leave immediately, does that speak poorly about his oft-praised character? Instead of bravely accepting the long term fight to restore Penn State's winning tradition in the face of NCAA sanctions, O'Brien will just be the guy who teased fans with being the savior only to jump to greener pastures right away. Not hero to villain, perhaps, but certainly hero to opportunist.

Final Thoughts

When you read about O'Brien's personal journey, especially about having to deal with his son's scary and dangerous seizure condition, it's hard to dislike the guy. Even more so when you watch how he has turned around a moribund and scandal-ridden Nittany Lions squad. I would love to have him as the next Eagles head coach... if only he didn't have to leave Penn State to get there.

Photo from Getty.

Putting the Eagles Third Down Defense Under the Microscope

One of the most concerning parts of the preseason game on Monday night was the way the defense wilted on third down (against Patriots backups). I rewatched all the third downs in the first half and noted the formations and playcalls. See the full list of 13 plays below along with the pre-snap formation (click for bigger) .

The end result was different than I expected, though. I remembered Juan Castillo's blitzes as the main problem, and certainly they were a major issue. He blitzed on three third down opportunties. On two of those plays, Josh McDaniels saw it coming a mile away and called screens that burned the defense, gaining 36 total yards. The third blitz actually did work, sacking Ryan Mallett for a loss of nine yards, only to be nullified by Nnamdi Asomugha's holding call.

But I was surprised to see just how bad the defense was under the four-man rush. Despite decent pressure from the front four, the Patriots converted 6 of 10 opportunities against no blitz, gaining 74 yards and a touchdown. That's not anyone's idea of good third down defense. Still, like the sack above, this set does include an interception by Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie that was called off for roughing the passer.

One more note, before I release you into the wild of all 13 plays: the Eagles pre-snap formations were 100 percent reliable in predicting their defense. When they had the DEs stand up, that indicatd a blitz. When they had a more conventional pre-snap look, a more conventional defense ensued. Now, Castillo may be playing a long game here, trying to trick the team's early opponents that those patterns will hold. But if not, the predictability of the defense will be easy to attack going forward.

1st Q: 3-12-NE 18 (13:43) (Shotgun) R.Mallett pass incomplete short right to D.Woodhead.
* Off Formation: Shotgun, 1RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
* Def Formation: Nickel, man-press coverage. Allen in the box.
* Play: 4-man rush gets pressure from Hunt and Cole. Poor throw somewhere between covered Woodhead (Kendricks) and covered Branch (DRC). Incomplete.

1st Q: 3-8-NE 13 (10:20) (Shotgun) R.Mallett pass short left to J.Edelman to NE 29 for 16 yards (K.Coleman; N.Allen).
* Off Formation: Shotgun, 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR.
* Def Formation: Nickel, man-press coverage. DTs line up wide, with Cole and Hunt as stand-up rushers in the middle. Kendricks at line of scrimmage to the top, Coleman in the box.
* Play: Patriots throw quick WR screen to left side, get two offensive linemen out front. Eagles blitz 6, none react quickly to screen. Asomugha blocked by Branch. Hanson only half-blocked by linemen, doesn't pursue for tackle. Coleman comes across formation, catches up with Edelman at same time Allen appears as last defense.

1st Q: 3-15-PHI 35 (6:57) (Shotgun) D.Woodhead up the middle to PHI 33 for 2 yards (P.Hunt; T.Cole).
* Off Formation: Shotgun, 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR.
* Def Formation: Nickel, no press coverage.
* Play: Draw to Woodhead. Four man rush, possibly cover 2. Hunt and Cole both beat blockers to inside, make tackle for minimal gain.

1st Q: 3-7-NE 23 (3:11) (Shotgun) R.Mallett pass short right intended for D.Branch
INTERCEPTED by D.Rodgers-Cromartie at NE 34. D.Rodgers-Cromartie ran ob at NE 30 for 4 yards.
PENALTY on PHI-F.Cox, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NE 23 - No Play.
* Off Formation: Shotgun, 2 RB (or 1 RB, 1 TE) in the backfield, 3 WR
* Def Formation: Nickel. Asomugha and Hanson with man-press coverage at top. DRC playing off on other side.
* Play: 4-man rush. Both backs chip ends and release. Cox beats guard, gets pressure up the middle. DRC steps in front of Branch to make interception. Cox (barely) hits QB late, penalty called.

1st Q: 3-7-NE 41 (2:22) (Shotgun) R.Mallett sacked at NE 32 for -9 yards (T.Cole).
PENALTY on PHI-N.Asomugha, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 41 - No Play.
* Off Formation: Shotgun, 2 RB, 3 WR
* Def Formation: Nickel, man-press coverage. DTs line up wide, with Cole and Hunt as stand-up rushers in the middle. Kendricks at line of scrimmage to the top, Coleman in the box.
* Play: Eagles blitz 5, with Ryans starting to blitz then peeling off to cover Woodhead. Hunt gets pressure up middle, Kendricks beats RB block on outside. Cole and Cox clean up for sack. Negated for holding call on Asomuga.

1st Q: 3-5-PHI 49 (:51) (Shotgun) R.Mallett pass short middle to D.Branch to PHI 29 for 20 yards (K.Coleman).
* Off Formation: Shotgun, empty backfield. 5 wide with Woodhead at the top.
* Def Formation: Nickel, Asomugha and Hanson with man-press coverage at top. DRC playing off on other side. Kendricks picks up receiver to slot right, Ryans goes out to get Woodhead wide left.
* Play: 4-man rush, Hunt/Jenkins stunt gets pressure in QB's face but he completes pass over the middle to Branch, who got a step on DRC.

2nd Q: 3-9-PHI 28 (15:00) (Shotgun) R.Mallett pass short right to S.Vereen to PHI 8 for 20 yards (P.Hunt).
* Off Formation: Shotgun, 1 RB in backfield, Woodhead wide right as 4th receiver
* Def Formation: Nickel, Man-press coverage on all but Woodhead, on whom Allen has off coverage. DTs in stance with rest milling around.
* Play: Eagles blitz 6, Patriots get 3 linemen out in front of RB screen. Big gain, Hunt chases him down from behind.

2nd Q: 3-7-PHI 7 (13:48) (Shotgun) R.Mallett pass short right to A.Silvestro for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
* Off Formation: Shotgun, 1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR
* Def Formation: Nickel, zone coverage with corners playing off.
* Play: 4-man rush, good pocket. TE beats Kendricks one-on-one on out route at goal line for TD.

2nd Q: 3-3-NE 27 (8:24) (Shotgun) B.Bolden up the middle to NE 31 for 4 yards (M.Kendricks).
* Off Formation: Shotgun, 2 RB, 3 WR
* Def Formation: Nickel, man coverage. Coleman in the box.
* Play: Inside run. Landri pushed away from the play, Patriots linemen get enough on LBs to get 1st down

2nd Q: 3-13-PHI 28 (5:05) (Shotgun) B.Hoyer pass deep middle to D.Branch to PHI 11 for 17 yards (K.Coleman).
* Off Formation: Shotgun, 2 RB, 3 WR
* Def Formation: Nickel, zone coverage (Marsh in for DRC, Boykin in for Hanson).
* Play: 4-man rush. Completion over the middle to Branch in a hole in the zone. Kendricks doesn't drop back enough, Coleman doesn't react quickly enough.

2nd Q: 3-17-PHI 18 (3:48) (Shotgun) B.Hoyer pass short middle to J.Ebert to PHI 17 for 1 yard (D.Ryans).
* Off Formation: Shotgun, 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
* Def Formation: Nickel, zone coverage.
* Play: 4-man rush, Hunt gets inside pressure. Short middle dump off pass bottled up quickly by Ryans.

2nd Q: 3-9-NE 30 (2:02) (Shotgun) B.Hoyer pass deep right to D.Stallworth pushed ob at 50 for 20 yards (C.Marsh).
* Off Formation: Shotgun, 2 RB, 3 WR
* Def Formation: Nickel, man-press coverage. Allen in box, threatens blitz.
* Play: 4-man rush. Hunt gets pressure around edge, QB escapes pocket, finds Stallworth on comeback route down the sideline against Marsh.

2nd Q: 3-18-NE 42 (1:40) B.Bolden up the middle to NE 47 for 5 yards (C.Jenkins).
* Off Formation: Under center, 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR
* Def Formation: Nickel, man coverage on outside
* Play: 4-man rush, inside run stopped by Jenkins.

Eagles 2012 Dress Rehearsal: the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

It's easy to make too much of a preseason game, even one that everyone acknowledges is the last real dress rehearsal before the regular season gets underway. The Eagles are still working out the kinks, and sometimes a poor practice can lead to a fabulous opening night.

At least, that's what everyone tells me. At the risk of being that insane moron who draws too many conclusions from a glorified scrimmage, let me highlight the main things that stuck out last night:

The Good

Mychal Kendricks is quickly on his way to becoming the best linebacker on the team. In striking contrast to Casey Matthews's first games in the spotlight a year ago, Kendricks doesn't give off any indication that the moment is too big for him. He's certainly not a Pro Bowler yet (although that didn't stop me from making such wild, fanciful leaps on Twitter), as evidenced by his subpar coverage in the red zone that gave up a touchdown. But Kendricks proved that he has the whole package. Seeing him diagnose a screen play, fight off a blocker, and make the tackle warms my heart.
Philip Hunt continues to look like, at worst, the Eagles third-best defensive end. Hunt showed solid pass rush potential last year in limited snaps, but his added bulk makes him look like a formidable, versatile starter.
Continuing with the defense, I would be remiss not to point out what an upgrade Nate Allen is over Jaiquawn Jarrett. Lots more to prove for Allen going forward, but his run support against the Patriots was especially noteworthy.
What's that you say? You've only skimmed the last few paragraphs looking for the name Nick Foles? Now registering on Tim McManus's scale of 1-to-Tebow, the rookie has surpassed all expectations. I was particularly skeptical on draft day, but in two games Foles has looked better than any Eagles backup since Kevin Kolb's two starts in 2009. I'm no quarterback guru, but one of the things that stands out about Foles is his complete lack of fear (something that seems to be dooming Kolb in Arizona). His pocket awareness, perhaps aided by his 6'6" frame, is fantastic, which enables him to move around fluidly and deliver crisp passes into tight spots. If he can keep this up, there's no question he's a better option than Mike Kafka.
The Eagles red zone offense was great. Part of that was Foles, but other players stepped up as well. Stanley Havili made his case for the fullback job, notching consecutive good plays -- a fullback trap to get to the goal line and a lead block to put LeSean McCoy in. Clay Harbor made a fantastic grab in the corner of the end zone. Even DeSean Jackson showed up, when the Eagles motioned McCoy out of the backfield and got Jackson one-on-one against a linebacker.

The Bad

Unfortunately, all the good things I mentioned above happened against the Patriots backups. Bummer.
On Michael Vick's injury, all I can do is quote DeSean's immortal words: "Aw man, not again."
Ironically, new starter King Dunlap was the most impressive offensive lineman last night. Evan Mathis allowed the pressure on the play where Michael Vick was injured. Todd Herremans had a similarly poor showing. And Danny Watkins looked totally incapable of blocking anyone. Let's not even mention Demetress Bell and his struggles against fourth-stringers.
Penalties, a problem in their own right, led to this shouting match between Andy Reid and Cullen Jenkins. Way to show some fire and all that, but this isn't really a good sign.

The Ugly

Josh McDaniels, with only second and third-stringers at his disposal, ran circles around Juan Castillo, especially on third down. That's frightening.

Photo from Getty.

The Giants Won the Super Bowl

… with this touchdown.

By the Numbers: A Fall From Grace

Andy Reid Vince Young Eagles

At the end of Sunday’s game two players were firmly seated on their respective benches. One was Tom Brady, leader of an elite but far from perfect team, who took a rest after amassing a three touchdown lead. The other was DeSean Jackson, talented underachiever on a league-basement team, who was benched for poor play while the Eagles were trying desperately to come back.

There may be a more apt and fair comparison, but to me that distinction illustrates exactly how far the Eagles have fallen. They used to be an elite squad. Not anymore.

Let’s check the numbers:

7 = Times the Patriots entered Eagles territory. They scored 5 touchdowns and went 1 for 2 on field goal attempts on those 7 possessions. That touchdown percentage would be worst in the league for opponent trips to the red zone, let alone crossing the 50 yard line.

2 = Official tackles by Jamar Chaney. There is no doubt that on Sunday Chaney missed more tackles than he made. See the entries under “No need for linebackers” and “fundamentally sound” in the Eagles coaching handbook.

400 = Largely worthless passing yards by Vince Young. That is, however, a single game career high.

40% = Completion percentage on passes targeted at DeSean Jackson. Young’s total would have been even higher if not for Jackson letting two touchdowns and another 75 to 100 yards slip through his fingers. DeSean’s stock has never been lower. It is increasingly likely not only that he’s playing for another team next season but that the Eagles won’t be able to get back much for his services.

10 = Eagles penalties, for 60 yards.

6 = First half carries by LeSean McCoy. The Patriots secondary is bad and the Eagles were able to take advantage of that matchup frequently, so I won’t belabor the “Why won’t you run the ball?” point. But the Patriots were also deficient against the run, no matter what Reid said in his post game press conference. Especially in a game when the goal needed to be keeping Tom Brady off the field, McCoy should have been more of a factor. You can bet that’s what Jim Washburn was heckling Marty Mornhinweg about on the sideline.

.125 = Eagles win percentage at Lincoln Financial Field since Week 16 of last season. Seeing so many fans stream out of the stadium with a quarter left to play can’t have made Jeff Lurie happy.

Photo from Getty.

Game Day Blowout

Did Kurt Coleman just give that fan a concussion?

Week Twelve
New England Patriots @ Philadelphia Eagles
4:15 pm ET on CBS

PS: I’ll be in the press box again, so follow along @Brian_Solomon for real-time updates.

Hot Read: Egotism, Attitude, and a Safety Puzzle

There’s no easier character for the sports media to portray than the athlete megalomaniac. Perhaps it’s the public’s fault. We demand that our stars be humble and empower our media representatives to take them down a notch when necessary.

There’s no other way to explain the overblown reactions to stories like this and this. Fans love to hate, and the media is happy to oblige in blowing small quotes up into page view-chasing controversies.

Of course, what makes two overconfident remarks from quarterbacks proof of their egotism, and another quotation only a positive example of appropriate confidence is beyond me.

* * *

Relatedly, is it such a bad thing if this year’s Eagles team has an “us against the world” mentality?

Spygate didn’t work out so poorly for the loaded Patriots in 2008. Maybe channeling some anger and isolation back at the rest of the NFL is a good attitude to take. Everyone is going to be gunning for the Eagles anyway.

* * *

Safety is a really interesting spot these days for the Eagles defense.

Nate Allen is supposed to be the unquestioned starter out there, but his knee isn’t 100 percent, so now he’s sharing snaps. Kurt Coleman has taken over as one of the more consistent and trusted youngsters on the defense, despite the team drafting his replacement. That rookie, Jaiquawn Jarrett, hasn’t shown the ability to contribute much right away. Meanwhile, Patriots castoff and cheap free agent pick up Jarrad Page is getting some first team reps. All while the fifth guy on the depth chart, Colt Anderson, was called out recently by Bobby April for his star special teams contributions.

Last year the Eagles started the season with only three safeties. Not sure what the answer is to that puzzle in 2011.