Together At The Close

On Sunday, Andy Reid will go out and coach his last game with the Eagles. His 243rd game as head coach in Philadelphia, 14 seasons of ups and downs. And I'm so glad that Michael Vick will be quarterbacking that final game.

I know it doesn't really matter. Getting another chance to see Nick Foles is probably a better use of our time. But Vick's story will always be so closely tied to Reid for me. Sure, Donovan McNabb was the long-running franchise icon who Reid groomed and partnered with for the best years. And Kevin Kolb was supposed to be second in line after that. But Vick disrupted that natural progression — leading to one of the highest points in Reid's tenure and, ironically, his lowest.

If there was one thing you could say about Reid (beside fat jokes and run-pass ratio gripes), it was that the coach was a quarterback whisperer. McNabb and Kolb both crumpled after they departed Philly. Guys like AJ Feeley and Jeff Garcia had no business being successful, but Reid made them so. Yet nothing cemented Reid's reputation more than salvaging Vick's career.

Truthfully, I think even Reid believed Vick was beyond saving. He did provide refuge after Vick spent two years in jail. But it always seemed like an investment more than a true rebuilding project. With the backing of Tony Dungy and Roger Goodell, Reid saw a beaten down player with immense talent who he could buy cheaply and sell later on, while being a fun toy to play with in the meantime. He never intended to start Vick. The 2010 offseason was filled with nearly as many Vick trade rumors as there were for McNabb.

If not for a twist of fate (or Kolb's neck), Vick never would have started in Philadelphia. But not only did he start, he experienced a resurrection. Vick was always a dynamic fan-favorite, but suddenly he was commanding one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. The player  who had never been a complete player was running, passing, and executing Reid's offense better than McNabb ever did. That 2010 team didn't win a playoff game, but there were eternal memories nonetheless. Remember the opening play bomb to DeSean Jackson that kicked off a 59-point score against the Redskins? Remember the Miracle at the New Meadowlands? 

Although we didn't know it at the time, these victories were the last hurrah for both Reid and Vick in Philadelphia. The last two years devolved as both Reid and Vick fell from their lofty 2010 peak. What had seemed to be the master stroke of Reid's career turned out to be a fleeting mirage of success. He made terrible coaching and personnel decisions. Vick couldn't replicate the efficiency he had demonstrated for the first time at age 30.

With the end of their careers in Philly inexorably entwined, it is fitting that Vick and Reid should go out together. And while I still hope for the best draft pick losing can buy, it will be hard for me not to root for them on the way out. 

Photo from Getty.

Bye McNabb and Kolb, Hello Defense

Sheil Kapadia has the breakdown of the complete haul the Eagles received for our revered blog namesakes:

McNabb and Kolb = Nate Allen, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Casey Matthews, Vinny Curry, Brandon Boykin, and DeMeco Ryans

Remains to be seen how all of these players will turn out but on the surface: not too shabby.

RG3 to Philly? It's Pretty Crazy

Heisman-winning quarterback and draft analyst man-crush Robert Griffin III met with the Eagles at the NFL Combine late last week, sparking a mini-resurgence of speculation (read: hope) that by some twist of fate RG3 could be coming to Philadelphia.

Jimmy Kempsi wrote, “it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see the Eagles make some sort of blockbuster trade to move up to 2 to get him.” He goes on to make some good points: Michael Vick will turn 32 before the season starts, his contract isn’t really for the full six years, and the cost of paying a first round quarterback isn’t prohibitive any more. Despite those reasons, there are still major barriers to bringing Griffin to the Eagles.

Let’s start with the fact that the Eagles are completely outgunned in trade negotiations. All indications are that the Rams are looking to sell out of the second overall selection. Do you know what it would take for the Eagles to even get into the conversation for that pick? According to the draft value chart, giving up the Eagles 2012 1st, two 2nd, 3rd, and 2013 1st round picks still leaves the team coming up slightly short.

For comparison, let’s take two of the teams cited most often in trade rumors: the Browns and the Redskins. Cleveland has the 4th and 22nd overall picks. Just those two selections are already worth more than the massive Eagles bounty described above. Former Eagles GM Tom Heckert definitely has the inside track on Griffin. Washington, meanwhile, could match Philly’s offer with just their 1st and 2nd round picks this year and 1st rounder next year.

You can draw comparisons with Vick today and Donovan McNabb in 2007, the year the Eagles drafted Kevin Kolb, but the cost is so much more prohibitive for Griffin. Using an early second round pick when you already have a starting quarterback is questionable, forfeiting almost your entire draft is prohibitive.

And that brings up the second major reason to shoot down any Griffin ideas: the opportunity cost is far too high. Giving up that many high picks would mean ignoring needs at a bunch of positions, including linebacker, defensive line, cornerback, and wide receiver. Given the general lack of young talent, especially on defense, the Eagles cannot afford to waste the opportunity to finally get a good, full draft.

Drafting Griffin, despite these concerns, would be writing the next year or two off. The Eagles front office would be admitting to the fans and — more importantly — a veteran group of players that they can’t win in 2012. They would be telling Michael Vick, who everyone hopes will work to improve himself this offseason, that he’s not really their franchise player. That could be a disaster.

What it comes down to is that the timing is off. Tommy Lawlor called the situation “awkward,” but it’s more than that. 2012 is shaping up to be a make-or-break year for more than just Andy Reid. Vick needs to get back to his 2010 form. DeSean Jackson, if he even accepts the franchise tag, could be gone after 2012. Veterans like Cullen Jenkins, Nnamdi Asomugha, Jason Babin, and Trent Cole may only have a year or two of high-level play left, and poor drafting has left the cupboard bare behind them.

Next year should answer a lot of questions about this team and the way it’s constructed. The Eagles could rebound and make a playoff run, in which case you will want a strong crop of young players in place to fill in the holes and keep up the momentum. Alternatively, if the Eagles flop there will be a NovaCare house cleaning like we haven’t seen since 1999. In that case, the team will be in a natural position to draft a new franchise quarterback and rebuild around him going forward.

Watching RG3 highlights is intoxicating, and I would love it if he ended up with the Eagles. But it’s not going to happen. Let’s just make that clear.

Photo from Getty.

Kolb Due $7 Million Roster Bonus

Jason La Canfora, for NFL.com:

Kolb will earn a $10 million signing bonus and $2 million salary in 2011. He’s due a $7 million roster bonus this March, which conceivably could be declined by the Cardinals, meaning they would could get out of Kolb’s deal after paying him just $12 million over one year.

Hypothetically, could the younger namesake end up back in Philly in the not-too-distant future?

Sizing Up the Atlanta Falcons

Seeing as we’re at the midweek point, perhaps it’s time to take a gander at the Eagles upcoming opponent to see what we might expect out of this weekend’s game. On Sunday the Eagles play the Atlanta Falcons in Michael Vick’s big return. Remember, last year Vick was injured against his former team and Kevin Kolb led Philadelphia to victory in his absence.

In preparation for the matchup, I went back and watched the Falcons week one loss against the Bears. Honestly, I didn’t find much to be worried about.

Let’s start on defense, where the unit looks average at best. They mostly played a vanilla 4-3 scheme with infrequent blitzing. The Football Outsiders Almanac said that the Falcons had more zone blitzes than anyone else in the NFL in 2010, but I didn’t notice that. Not that I would mind if they did. Defensive end John Abraham, like Trent Cole the last few years, is far and away the best pass rusher they have. Dropping him back into coverage only helps the offense.

The Falcons defense added Ray Edwards in the offseason, and at his size he’s hard to miss. But even against the Bears rookie tackle Gabe Carimi, Edwards made hardly any impact. Sean Weatherspoon is a tremendously fast linebacker, but made a couple of missed tackles that even Asante Samuel would be ashamed of.

Atlanta had an especially hard time covering Matt Forte on screen passes. Forte had two long gains, one for a touchdown and one that should have been a touchdown if not for a bad officiating call that put him out of bounds at the one yard line. LeSean McCoy must be licking his lips.

The Falcons offense has better weapons on paper than the Rams, but they barely registered because Matt Ryan looked so mediocre. The typical pass play involves Ryan dropping back with plenty of time and then dumping the ball off to the open man underneath. I’m all for taking what the defense gives you, but Roddy White and Julio Jones were nonfactors against the Bears.

For a while I thought it might just be the Bears cover two scheme, but then I checked the stats from last year. Ryan was 26th among quarterbacks in yards per attempt (6.5) and 28th in yards per catch (10.4). And while he’s decisive with the football, Ryan isn’t particularly mobile. That’s especially bad considering his left tackle Sam Baker had nine blown blocks in 2010 according to the FOA, third-most in the league.

Overall, this looks like an overrated team. Last year Atlanta won 13 games but their Pythagorean wins were closer to 11. They don’t look significantly better, while the Eagles have improved substantially since their 2010 victory.

All in all this will be a more difficult test than week one, and any further lapses in run defense or tight end coverage won’t make it easy on the Eagles defense. But if those holes can be patched up, I don’t see much reason to expect anything other than a 2-0 start.

Photo from Getty.

Michael Vick, Meet Your New Burden

“We’re sitting here, and I’m supposed to be the franchise player, and we’re talking about practice.”

The NFL has done a semantic disservice by creating a “franchise player” tag. That designation means little more to the team than “best free agent we don’t want to lose.” A real franchise player, as Allen Iverson understood it, was a player who transcended the normal relationship between player and team.

The franchise player is both the indispensable star on the field as well as the jersey that is directly entwined to the team off of it. All players are blamed for poor performance and coaches are always intently questioned after losses. But no one takes more direct criticism for or is more closely associated with overall problems than the franchise player.

Last year, even after the Eagles hitched their wagon to the Second Coming, Vick wasn’t the franchise player. Number seven was still a revelation, much like a penny stock you buy on a whim and ride to millionaire status. Fans, spectators, commentators were playing with house money. They enjoyed the ride and wondered how long it might last.

There were whispers of disapproval as Vick fell back to mortality at the end of the season. Perhaps the NFL has figured Vick out, they said. Maybe he’s not really as good as we thought. Are we sure that sending Kevin Kolb away is the right decision?

In the moment, those voices never amounted to any substantial chorus. There was still too much optimism, too much residual exuberance. Today, however, with the announcement of Vick’s new $100 million contract, that all changes.

Vick’s days as a miracle child are over. He is a high-priced investment expected to perform at an elite level and, more importantly, expected to carry the Eagles to a Super Bowl win. There is no doubt that anything less in 2011 will be a failure for the team as a whole, and specifically for Vick — no matter what stats he puts up or how well he plays. And that paradigm will continue for as long as Vick remains an Eagle.

Vick’s exploits transcended the Eagles in 2010. The team was mediocre, stumbling into the playoffs and exiting in the first round. But Vick became a story much bigger. In 2011 and beyond that will no longer be possible. The franchise player is constrained within the boundaries of his team. Iverson was a star, but once he became more than that for the Sixers his individual efforts never soared quite as high. One could say the same about Vick during his time in Atlanta. The franchise player carries his team. Every spectacular performance lifts the organization. Every loss increases the player’s burden.

Michael Vick is well compensated and adequately prepared to take on this challenge. But accepting the title of franchise player is easy. Enduring it, especially in Philadelphia, is the hard part.

Photo from Getty.

Get More McNabb or Kolb in the '11 Eagles Annual

Thank you for your continued support of McNabb or Kolb. Glad to see lots of Eagles fans enjoying the free agency bonanza and the start of training camp. It’s an exciting time.

No big new post today. Just wanted to alert you to more great Eagles content. The 2011 Eagles Annual from Maple Street Press is available for order online now and should be on bookshelves in the Philly area soon.

Yours truly penned a piece on the evolution of the passing game from Donovan McNabb through Kevin Kolb to Michael Vick, with a bunch of stats that I had wanted to use for a while. Check it out.

There’s a ton more content where that comes from. Having just received my copy in the mail yesterday, I can tell you it’s 112 pages of pure Eagles analysis, with no ads (kind of like this site). Besides myself, many of your other favorite bloggers lent a hand to the magazine.

Jason Brewer at Bleeding Green Nation was the issue editor. Jimmy Kempski at Blogging the Beast wrote articles about the NFC East competition, Andy Reid, and the Eagles sophomore class. Tommy Lawlor of Iggles Blitz contributed characteristically detailed pieces on the rookies, assistant coaches, and the historic 1991 Eagles squad. Sam Lynch, cap maven, broke down the principles that keep the Eagles on top. Gabe Bevilacqua, also known as everyone’s favorite Bounty Bowl, looked back at the Buddy Ryan days. And, certainly not least, Tom McAllister, who wrote Bury Me in My Jersey, reflected powerfully on the moral quandary of rooting for Michael Vick. Plus much more.

If you are as dedicated of an Eagles fan as I think you are, you’ll want to pick up a copy.

Eagles Front Office Outsmarted Everyone Else

It’s not easy to explain the free agent binge the Eagles have embarked on over the last week. People have tried, of course, but I can’t help but find most of their explanations lacking.

Donovan McNabb’s resentful commentary, as told to Clark Judge, certainly isn’t right. He whined, “You’re seeing Andy taking that chance. It’s not just taking that chance on one guy. They’re taking a chance on a bunch of guys. And they’re spending money. That’s amazing.”

It’s not as easy as saying that Reid and company have changed up, become more aggressive, more willing to spend, or more risky overall. The Eagles front office has never hesitated to go after the best free agents, signing guys like Jevon Kearse, Jon Runyan, and Asante Samuel. While they’ve been prudent with their money, that’s never been a big restraint. And, considering all but the Nnamdi Asomugha deal can be opted out of after a year, they’ve certainly hedged against risk.

I look at the list of free agents additions at right and I don’t see a big shift in philosophy. Some of the guys are older, but they’re top players still in their prime, not fading former stars. And, to reiterate, they haven’t let themselves get too risky with the deals.

Plus, the veteran acquisitions hide the fact that the rest of the Eagles lineup is still very young. A month back I pointed out that the team was poised to have Michael Vick potentially be the oldest Eagle in 2011. That’s unlikely now, but the overall point remains. This team is still young — even after adding a few 30-year-old veterans — and the bounty of 2012 draft picks beckons.

So what has changed? It’s not a willingness to spend or accept risk. It wasn’t aggressiveness that won the free agency period for the Eagles. Nor was it some fateful passing text messages in the night.

It was brains.

Read Jonathan Tamari’s Inquirer story about the Eagles preparation for the end of the lockout and free agency and tell me that the front office’s “blueprint” didn’t run circles around the rest of the league.

Carolina, for example, jumped into free agency like a chicken with its head cut off, throwing huge signing bonuses at every player who threatened to leave. Washington signed so many washed up veteran wide receivers that one backed out of his commitment. The Jets and Cowboys spent days pursuing Asomugha and came up empty.

Meanwhile, during the same window, the Eagles front office signed all their draft picks, picked a bunch of undrafted rookies, traded Kevin Kolb at high market value to the only team who was really interested, signed two Pro Bowl defensive linemen, snatched up the single best free agent with a surprisingly low deal before anyone knew they were even bidding, and then plugged cheap, proven contributors into the remaining holes with cap room to spare.

It makes sense. During the Andy Reid era, the Eagles have always been best at pregame preparation rather than live adjustments. And what was the lockout, ultimately, but an extra long chance to do nothing but plan, prepare, and scheme for the first days back?

Essentially, the Eagles just ran the best first 15 scripted plays they’ve ever called. The outcome of the whole game remains far from decided, but they now have a tremendous head start.

Photo from Getty.