The Herr-Dawg Prepares to Move Inside

Todd Herremans doesn't seem to mind his presumed move back to guard. From Jordan Raanan:​

"They don't spend the fourth overall pick on a kid and not have him come and play tackle," said Herremans, who received a text from general manager Howie Roseman and a phone call from coach Chip Kelly after the pick. "One of the things that has always been big for me is my versatility and being able to play other places. I'm sure they'll probably bump me down to guard and see how everything else works out."

And this quote was buried, but also interesting:

"I was prepared to play tackle, I was prepared to play guard," Herremans said. "I think I can probably steal a few more years at guard, but I still think I have three or four really good years of football left."

See also: The Book of Love According to Herr-Dawg

Danny Watkins Would Lose At Limbo

Tommy Lawlor, in his official Detailed Game Review (emphasis mine):

WATKINS - The gameplan called for King Dunlap to block to his inside a few times on pass plays. Danny would then do a short pull and take on the edge rusher. I’m not a huge fan of this tactic. Very mixed results. Danny had a couple of good blocks. Jake Bequette gave him fits on a couple. Up and down beyond that. There are times when he anchors and does a really good job. There are other plays where athletic moves get the best of him and he’s then holding on for dear life. I do like the fact that he won’t give up when beaten. Smart. Do what you can to protect the QB/RB.

Not to pick on Tommy, who covers both the good and the bad here, but at some point you've lowered the bar too much.

Pass Blocking Efficiency, from Peters to Kelce

Considering how much fun we had the last time we talked about offensive line play, we might as well go back to it.

Pro Football Focus calculates “Pass Blocking Efficiency” as a percentage of plays in which offensive linemen prevent quarterback pressure. Sacks are weighted more heavily than hits and hurries, but they all count.

Here are the numbers for the Eagles starting linemen last season:

I listed the players in order of their Pass Blocking Efficiency, but truthfully that doesn’t quite give you the right context. 95 percent might sound good, but you have to prevent the quarterback from pressure the vast majority of the time if you even want to see playing time as an offensive lineman.

For a more accurate picture, look at the ranks on the left side. Those numbers are where the player stands among all those at his position (tackle, guard, or center) who played at least 50 percent of his team’s snaps. Therefore, even though Evan Mathis has the highest raw score, Jason Peters was ranked higher among his peers. He scored 5th-best among tackles, where Mathis was 11th among guards. Presumably that means that Peters’ job is more difficult.

Todd Herremans ranked 35th with 94 percent PBE, but that’s not as bad as it might sound. 58 tackles qualified with more than half of their team’s snaps, so he is below average among all of them. On the other hand, he still scored better than the majority of “second” tackles, so I suppose there’s a positive way to look at his performance. Danny Watkins, at 43rd out of 55, looks worse than Herremans on this measurement.

It was Jason Kelce that really stood out to me, though. At 30th overall, he was the single worst center measured. I was critical of Brian Baldinger’s comments that Kelce was having a Pro Bowl year, but that was based solely on my own impressions. These numbers certainly back me up though. In fact, Kelce’s 33 total pressures allowed was 10 more than the next highest center.

Assuming Mathis returns to Philly, it looks like the left side of the line will be more than fine. But everyone from Kelce on down the right side definitely has room for improvement in 2012.

Photo from Getty.

The Case Against Re-signing Evan Mathis

Due to his Twitter and Reddit participation, Evan Mathis has become something of a unifying force for fan goodwill on the Internet. Honestly, I’m not sure there’s anything Eagles fans online agree about more than that Mathis must be retained.

At the risk of setting off a mini-revolt from those legions of supporters, I wonder if the enthusiasm has gotten a bit out of control. Is Mathis really as valuable as everyone says? There’s at least circumstantial evidence that points in the opposite direction.

First, we should remember that only a year ago, Mathis was completely unknown. With the Panthers and Bengals from 2007 to 2010, he started only seven games. He wasn’t a highly-valued free agent, just a veteran journeyman, and the Eagles signed him at the end of August last season largely because of Danny Watkins’s surprising holdout. If a bunch of options at right tackle, like Ryan Harris and Winston Justice, hadn’t failed so miserably, Mathis might not even have been promoted to the starting lineup.

Now, none of that on its own is damning. Players rise and fall over the course of their careers. Mathis is a good fit for Howard Mudd’s system, and his rapid offseason body change may have contributed to his revitalized prospects. Still, we must wonder whether a career year at age 30 is really indicative of future top performance.

The other question, for which I don’t have any conclusive answer, remains: was Mathis as good last year as many people thought? I’m not trying to take anything away from what was clearly a solid season. Mathis provided stability to an offensive line that desperately needed it and had good results despite sharing the middle with two rookies.

But at the same time, former NFL linemen have said that left guard is one of the easier line positions. Mathis manned that side with Jason Peters, a truly dominant force, and yet runs to the left tackle netted the third-worst mark in the league, according to Football Outsiders. When Todd Herremans lined up in that spot, directional rushing to the left was alwasy a major strength. In 2011 it became a mixed bag.

Furthermore, Mathis just never passed the eye test that a supposedly top-five-type guard might. He gave up few negative plays, but I also never found myself saying “wow” after one of his highlights. With Todd Herremans and Shawn Andrews in recent years, the Eagles have had guys on the interior that could lay claim to the “dominant” descriptor. As solid as Mathis was, to my eyes he was never that.

All of this is not to say the team absolutely shouldn’t resign Mathis. I’m actually in favor of that move in theory. But if he has other offers for significant money, would the Eagles really be wise to get into a bidding war for his services? I think not.

Photo from Getty.

What Does the Danny Watkins Promotion Mean?

Geoff Mosher of The News Journal reports today that Danny Watkins, the Eagles first-round pick this year, will replace Kyle DeVan as the starting right guard this Sunday against Buffalo for his first NFL start.

This is big news for Watkins, obviously. After the Eagles gave him every chance to start in the preseason, Watkins looked completely unprepared to start. There were certainly limiting factors. He was hurt by the lockout and a brief holdout, both of which prevented him from making the transition to the NFL as fast as possible.

Still, at 26 years-old, Watkins was supposed to be NFL-ready when he arrived in Philly. The fact that he didn’t even dress for three out of the first four games strikes major doubt into estimations of Howie Roseman’s drafting, especially when the starter DeVan was so bad. Pro Football Focus pegged DeVan with the blame on both 49ers sacks, as well as four QB pressures last week. Meanwhile, the offense couldn’t buy a first down in short yardage. But really, how much did the Eagles expect out of a guy they pulled off the street a week before the season started?

With this news, we’re left wondering if Watkins was promoted due to his own progression or because the Eagles simply had no other choice. The jury is definitely still out on Watkins, and I’m not ready at all to write him off just because he couldn’t start right away. But I’m leaning toward the second option for two reasons.

First, nothing has really changed since Sunday when the Eagles decided that Watkins wasn’t good enough to put on a uniform. He couldn’t show sudden progress in practice just a day or two later. The only thing that happened recently was the coaches reviewing the game tape and seeing how bad DeVan was against the 49ers.

Second, promoting Watkins mirrors a move the Eagles made just a week ago, when they officially promoted Nate Allen to the starting lineup. Another high draft pick, Allen had been dogged with injuries but also looked completely out of his element in the preseason. He wasn’t inserted into the lineup because he healed or because he suddenly fixed his problems. No, it took a tackle “attempt” by Kurt Coleman against the Giants. Since that point, Allen hasn’t exactly looked like a stud, either.

The Eagles figured that if they’re going to get beat, it might as well be with the guys they’ve recently invested top picks in. As such, the countdown to Jaiquawn Jarrett’s promotion begins… right now.

Photo from Getty.

Old Man Danny Watkins is Eagles 1st Round Pick

Danny Watkins, Eagles number one pick. Savior to the woeful right guard spot. But at 26 years old (27 in November), Watkins is one of the oldest players to be selected in the first round ever.

Outside of his age, this looks like a solid pick by the Eagles. As I’ve written on multiple occasions, they needed help along the offensive line more than anywhere outside of perhaps cornerback. And after only four years of playing football, Watkins already has shown the talent to be a first round selection. Certainly there is a lot of potential for offensive line gurus Andy Reid and Howard Mudd to tap into. Plus, everyone praises the former fireman’s work ethic and maturity.

But of course, there is the small matter of age. Even if Watkins becomes a Pro Bowler, his upside is limited. His second contract wouldn’t come until he was over the age of 30. That’s not a deal-breaker — 44 offensive linemen over the age of 30 started at least 10 games in 2010. But it is by far the biggest downside of the selection.

Below are the scouting reports on Watkins from various draft experts and the selection they projected him to be picked in their most recent mock drafts.

Rick Gosselin, Dallas Morning News (#28 overall, to New England):

Watkins is the safest pick in the entire draft - the one player you can confidently say will be in the Pro Bowl in 2012. He’s the best guard on the board, and some NFL teams were looking at him as both a center and tackle. (source)

Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN (#32 overall, to Green Bay):

He’s an interesting guy with his size and the versatility he provides. He’s going to continue to get better because they coach you up in the NFL. With the guard group not being particularly strong, that helps him a lot. It wouldn’t shock me if he went in the second or third round when all is said and done. (source)

Mike Mayock, NFL Network (#21 overall, to Kansas City):

I put the tape on and he jumped out at me. He’s heavy-handed [meaning Watkins ‘punches’ well], he finishes, and he’s nasty; he reminds me a lot of the [John] Moffitt kid from Wisconsin. I look at the two of them and I think they’re both interior starters. I think they’re centers or guards, and they’re starters in the league… has been coached really well… he can bend and he’s really naturally strong. He’s got what they call a 6-inch punch, and he can jar you with that 6 inches. ” (source)

Todd McShay, ESPN (#25 overall, to Seattle):

I think Danny Watkins fits in immediately as a starter and you look at his make-up: he’s a tough, physical, nasty offensive guard that’s going to upgrade this team in the run game and also help in terms of pass protection. (source)

Tommy Lawlor, Scout’s Notebook & Iggles Blitz:

Probably the most interesting prospect in the whole draft… Spent both years [at Baylor] as the  starting LT. Did a solid job there, but projects inside in the NFL.  Doesn’t have the athletic ability or footwork for playing OT. Looks like  a natural fit at G. Watkins is a tenacious blocker. He goes to the  whistle. Or the echo of the whistle. Anchors well. Able to re-set when  he is initially driven back. Sinks his hips and plays with good  leverage. Feet are fine for playing in a tight space (like G or C). Also  has a mentality that fits well at G. Sort of a bully. Likes to find a  defender and really mash on him. Uses his hands pretty well. Still raw,  but seems very coachable.

Older than teams prefer, but a real good player and the kind of guy that teams love. Should go in the early 2nd round. (source)

Wes Bunting, National Football Post (#19 overall, to New York Giants):

Watkins is… a strong anchor player, moves his feet well through contact, has the ability to play both guard spots and even some right tackle. I fully expect him to come in and start at a high level from day one. It’s not the sexiest of selections, but I love the pick and think he can be one of the better guards in the NFL early in his career. (source)

Originally published at NBC Philadelphia. Photo from Getty.

Negative Plays by Offensive Line: Eagles v. NFL

We’d all love for the Eagles to have one of those dominant offensive lines, one that knocks defenses back all game. But to some degree, offensive linemen are judged more by their mistakes than their positive plays.

To that end, I put together the following charts of “negative plays” by offensive lineman, according to the stats guys at Pro Football Focus. I calculated a negative play to be a penalty, sack, hit, or pressure. Obviously these individually are not equal. A sack is far worse than a simple pressure. But overall a lineman who’s letting a lot of guys get to his quarterback probably isn’t doing such a good job, and sacks are often based on luck — who has the quarterback step toward him, etc.

I added all the negative plays up and divided them by each player’s snap count: the number of times the guy actually played. For the purposes of this exercise I also limited the players to those who were on the field for at least 25% of their team’s total snaps (except for Eagles’ linemen). Finally, to make the number a little bit more digestible, I multiplied those fractions by the average number of defensive plays in an NFL game (~62).

Behold Negative Plays per Game. Click each to see the large version in a new window/tab. Tackles on the left, guards in the middle, and centers on the right:

           

In terms of the NFL in general, you certainly recognize a lot of the players on the top of these lists. Clearly there’s a correlation here: great offensive linemen don’t make negative plays.

That’s not to say that the causation is total. Again, there’s more to being a lineman than NOT giving up bad plays. That may be why a number of Pro Bowl guys fall down on the lists — David Diehl, Alan Faneca, Leonard Davis, etc. Or maybe the numbers expose that they aren’t quite as good as their reputations or paychecks would suggest (see: Peters, Jason).

One other note: the Jets have a kick-ass line — dominant run blockers who don’t make many mistakes. Two top-5 tackles. A top 3 guard. The number 1 center. And their only weak link, Faneca, left in free agency.

On the Eagles:

For tackles, both Peters and Winston Justice were above average. Justice was more reliable (nothing new there), but scouts seem to consider Peters’ 2009 as a down year. If he can stay healthy and cut down on the penalties, he could jump back to the top group. Todd Herremans, when subbing at tackle, played at about an Alex Barron-level, i.e. Dallas’s potential starting LT this year. With an even smaller sample size, King Dunlap was horrible. Hopefully his newfound girth can help him improve.

Herremans was also surprisingly mistake-prone as a guard. Maybe that was rust or lingering issues from missing the first 6 weeks, but it clashed with my past perception. He earned a 1.20 score in 2008, which would have been good for 15th last year, and is about what Nick Cole got. Cole may not have been dominant at guard but he didn’t make many mistakes. Both Max (Now I Can Fit Into) Jean-Gilles and the lesser but less-crazy Andrews brother have things to prove this season.

As for centers, Jamaal Jackson was great in 2009. Nick Cole wasn’t so hot, but he was better than four-time Pro-Bowler Andre Gurode. Make of that what you may.