Nick Foles Is Not Your Savior

On Monday, I showed you how Nick Foles' stats through 5 games compare to his rookie peers. There were some positive notes there, especially when you look over the last two games. If he can keep up that pace of NFL-caliber QB play over the final three weeks, then we can talk seriously about 2013. But I would caution everyone against thinking that the Eagles have solved their QB problem already.

In all likelihood, Foles is not the answer in 2013, let alone for the next decade. Could he be? Yes. But he needs to prove that he can be the guy, not have fans or front office personnel will him into the role. Our default evaluation stance should be skepticism. Here's why:

1. Foles may not be able to keep up his recent run of success. To my mind, even considering Foles the guy for 2013 is entirely contingent on him finishing the year strong. Some people are treating that as given, but it's not. Over the last two games, his best performances, Foles faced the 24th and 23rd-ranked pass defenses, according to Football Outsiders. He should look good against those teams. Furthermore, even in success Foles has been extremely lucky. Defenders have dropped multiple easy interceptions -- any one of which would have cost the Eagles the game on Sunday. 

2. There is no guarantee Foles will improve over time. Remember in 2010, when Michael Vick blew everyone away and was given a contract extension? His renaissance didn't last long. While Foles may improve, make better decisions, work on accuracy and footwork and reading defenses -- opponents will improve as well. Teams figured out Vick, and with a rookie like Foles, they are only now starting to have the film to evaluate him. Whether that happens at the end of this season or next, they are going to catch up.

3. Immediate results mean little when you're thinking long term. Remember Bobby Hoying? Remember AJ Feeley? More recently, on other teams, think about John Skelton, Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel. The list goes on and on. Just because a player (especially a rookie) holds their own initially doesn't mean they can be the franchise QB permanently. Whether it's regression to the mean or defenses realizing they can blitz the heck out of you, players who are anointed early often fail in the long term.

4. Remember Foles' pedigree. High draft picks are never guaranteed successes, but they have a much lower bust rate. Six quarterbacks were taken before Foles went with the 88th pick. Most teams passed him over three times. Historically, quarterbacks drafted near Foles have less than a 10 percent chance of making a single Pro Bowl. A couple of competent performances don't change those overall odds of success.

5. What is Foles' upside? On a related note, you have to consider his ceiling. Few people seriously thought that Foles, a mid-round pick, had NFL-starter potential. He was compared, pre-draft, to Skelton and Chad Henne. Jon Gruden compared him to Brad Johnson based on preseason performance. And there are hints of that limited upside in the film and the stats. Not super-accurate, not a great long ball, not a dangerous scrambler. Do you want to hitch your ride to a guy who may not ever be an "elite" quarterback?

6. The Andy Reid factor. Reid has always gotten the most out of limited and young quarterbacks, Feeley being a great example. Those carriages typically turn back into pumpkins on the way out of town. And with Reid gone next year, will the next coach be able to make the most of out a guy like Foles? Running the ball more would help, but it's no guarantee.

7. Seize the moment. This isn't specifically about Foles, but more about the Eagles' situation. Right now they are lined up for the fourth overall pick in the next draft. It's not often (hopefully) that you end up in a spot like that. Unfortunately, the QB selection looks barren, but if the team remains that high, they potentially will have the chance to get the top option like Geno Smith. You don't turn your back on that chance just because of a guy like Foles.

Photo from Getty.

Post-Draft Position Breakdown: Quarterback

What the Eagles did: I’ve already written about the Nick Foles pick at some length here, although only from the perspective that I think he was overdrafted based on his talent. Foles is an odd selection because he seems so far outside the type of player Andy Reid usually goes for. Huge, with a cannon arm but limited athleticism doesn’t exactly echo through the years of Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, and Michael Vick. It remains to be seen if Reid and Marty Mornhinweg can either fit him into their offense or adjust the offense to fit him.

Because of that, I have a sneaking suspicion that Russell Wilson was the real target. After the Foles pick, Reid denied any interest in Brock Osweiler, but admitted that he “honed in on those two guys,” Foles and Wilson:

“And with these quarterbacks very few of them come from the west coast offense. You saw the kid that went before him (Wisconsin QB Russell) Wilson. He had played in the west coast offense at North Carolina State. There are very few of those that have that opportunity to do that… I liked Wilson, yeah, I sure did. He’s a heck of a player too. We had our eye on those two players and I wish that kid all the best. He’s got a great personality. Not a lot of guys have his size, but he gives you the confidence he’s going to be able to do it.”

Maybe I’m reading too much into his press conference, but my immediate thought after watching it was along the lines of, “that was a much stronger endorsement than Reid gave Foles.” And Wilson just makes so much sense as a player who wouldn’t challenge Vick’s current leadership but could learn a tremendous amount watching him.

Given Wilson was selected only 13 spots ahead of the Eagles by a Seattle team that no one expected to draft another quarterback, Reid and Howie Roseman may have been forced to settle for Foles instead.

What I would have done: Obviously, I wouldn’t have drafted Nick Foles. He doesn’t seem likely to have the talent or the fit to make him a potential starter down the road, nor will he help push Mike Kafka to be a better backup.

The Eagles definitely have a long term need for a franchise quarterback to replace Vick. We won’t know how long term that need is until after this coming make-or-break season for him. Therefore, barring the ability to go get a top talent like Robert Griffin III, drafting someone in the early-middle rounds probably wasn’t the best use of resources. My goal would have been to grab a veteran backup to compete with Kafka instead, perhaps buying low on either Colt McCoy or Seneca Wallace in Cleveland.

Way-too-early prediction: Don’t expect anything from Foles this year, but it will be interesting to see if the Eagles quarterback gurus can help Vick and Kafka rebound from a down year in 2011. As a rule of thumb, one shouldn’t discount the Eagles coaching ability in this area (Vince Young/Mike McMahon nonwithstanding), so I’m reasonably optimistic.

Still, I wonder if we’ve seen the the limits of Vick’s abilities. It’s tough for him to mature into a more responsible quarterback at his age. An improvement from last season is likely, but a return to 2010 may be too much to ask. As to Kafka, I don’t trust him right now but a third-year leap into AJ Feeley territory isn’t out of range.

Oh, and Trent Edwards is not making the team.

Photo from Getty.

Kevin Kolb: Fourth Grade Bad-Ass, and Other Stories

Go read this. Now.

Fanhouse writer and mid-day WIP host Anthony Gargano went bass fishing with Kevin Kolb. The first part of his story was relatively tame, other than when Kolb recounted a story about how he killed a rattlesnake while hunting with his future wife at 17 years old. The second part of the story is much juicier.

It starts with honestly one of the most disturbing stories I’ve ever heard about any kid, that took place when Kolb was a helper on his football coach dad’s team. He was in fourth-grade and one of the eighth-grade players was teasing him:

And so there was this one time that one kid rode young Kevin Kolb extra hard, and Kolb challenged him to a tug of war with the bath towel wrapped in electrical tape the team sometimes used, and Kolb beat him. And Kolb was so emotionally charged, brimming with fear-breaking sick and tired, that he then beat that one kid with the towel wrapped in electrical tape into submission, whipping him to the ground.

“I beat him until they had to pull me off him,” Kolb spits. “They were like, ‘Kevin … stop!’ Stop! Kevin, stop!’ That kid was a little punk. I was never going to let that happen to me again. I was never going to let anyone make me feel that way again and I never did.”

Gargano writes splendidly, but he tries to gloss this incident over with a simple line that it provided Kolb with “the gift of fortitude.” I think it’s a little more than that. As a fourth-grader, Kolb beat up a kid probably twice his size, and would have continued if people hadn’t restrained him. That’s an incredible competitive fire to have in the Eagles huddle, but it’s also an incredibly violent and disturbing image.

There’s a ton more in the profile. How Kolb’s still “sick” over his interception to Ed Reed in 2008. How Kolb’s high school was basically a semi-pro team. How AJ Feeley thought Kolb should take it easy in practice to make Donovan McNabb look better. How McNabb felt threatened by Kolb’s presence from the beginning, and embraced Michael Vick to push his young challenger down the depth chart.

How former Eagles General Manager and current Browns GM Tom Heckert would have offered the farm for Kolb:

“Whatever Andy wanted, I would have given him,” Heckert said at the time. “A one (draft pick), a two … two ones. No joke. Kolb is legit.”

There’s so much to think about that perhaps I’m getting too hung up on the image of fourth-grade Kolb standing over another kid, beating his snot out. Yet it does repulse me at a very basic level. Hopefully Kolb can channel that “fortitude” into an team attitude that makes losing unacceptable in the Eagles locker room — and he never has to challenge anyone to a tug of war again.

Thoughts on Free Agency Day 1

So the first day of free agency is wrapping up, and we’ve seen a few interesting things happen. If I were you I’d read KSK’s round-up first, but here are a few interesting nuggets to think about:

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The Rams signed A.J. Feeley to a one year, $6 million deal. Too bad for the Eagles, he would have been a nice veteran back-up option to Kolb. But good for Feeley. I imagine he’ll get a chance to start for a year in front of Sam Bradford. (By the way, all the Vick to St. Louis talk just never really made sense to me. Why would you do that when you can draft the best quarterback and start over?)

Maybe the bigger take away for the Eagles though, is that Michael Vick is a great value at only $5 million in 2010. And if a lucky team can get him after the Eagles pay Vick’s bonus in a few days, he will be a ridiculous steal at about $3.5 million.

Maybe I was too much of a downer on likely returns for Vick…

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Remember only a year ago when everyone wanted Anquan Boldin to be an Eagle? Yeah… neither do I. But John Harbaugh apparently does.

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So both Julius Peppers and Chester Taylor bolted to the Windy City?

Do you hear that sound? That’s the air letting out of Philly fan hopes for this free agency.

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If, as reported, Todd Collins and David Carr are attracting interest, teams are really scratching the bottom of the barrel on quarterback talent. I assume the Eagles front office has recieved many, many calls about their QBs.

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Leonard Weaver deserves mad money for his work last season. Maybe he’s even convinced the front office that the fullback position is important?  Count me unconvinced.

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Didn’t notice Lawlor’s post yesterday, when he said:

I’m hearing that at least one team is having talks with the Eagles about Michael Vick.  I don’t know if this is a deal that will get done soon or not.  The other team is trying to figure out how Vick will handle joining a team with a starter already in place.  Can’t be specific with this for now.

“With a starter already in place”? Weird. I can’t imagine Vick would be all that happy with that. But where would that put him? It would have to be a team with a starter and no real back up. In other words, it could be a lot of teams.

Guesses off the top of my head? Jets, Ravens, Chargers, Lions, Bucs.

* * *

Will Witherspoon, we hardly knew you.

* * *

Oh, almost forgot. Breaking news: Reid goes on the radio says McNabb is the Eagles QB for 2010.

Eagles Looking at Free Agent QBs?

Most of the NFL chatter has the Eagles sending quarterbacks away. Michael Vick should be out the door (sooner rather than later), and Donovan McNabb may not be far behind.

But if either or both of these QBs are traded, the team’s depth at the position instantly takes a hit. Suddenly the Eagles will be in the market for a quarterback — especially if Kevin Kolb is named the starter, meaning the Eagles need a capable veteran back up.

While Koy Detmer probably won’t be coming out of retirement, here are a couple replacements.

Most likely:

• A.J. Feeley — You get the feeling Feeley wouldn’t mind starting somewhere else. He signed with Carolina during last season thinking that might be a possibility. But is he likely to have it better some place other than Philly? I doubt it.
• Jeff Garcia — Another guy who knows Andy Reid, Philadelphia, and the system. Brought in last year to back up Kolb, he definitely could be an option this offseason if McNabb is jettisoned.

Interesting other options, if the previous reliable ones aren’t available:

• Jason Campbell — Campbell’s a guy who all of us Eagles fans hate, because as bad as the Redskins tend to be, he always gives the Philly defense fits. There’s a good chance he’ll get tendered for a year by Washington while Shanahan grooms a new QB. But if Campbell gets cuts loose , and doesn’t see a bright path to a starting job elsewhere, I could see Andy, Donovan McNabb’s mentor, being an attractive career-reviver.
• Tavaris Jackson — Ought to get tendered. If he doesn’t, could be attractive in Philly since he knows the system.
• Chad Pennington — Will probably get a job starting for another year somewhere ahead of a young draft pick (STL ?). And if he can’t get that why not go back to Parcells in Miami? Mostly just a safe pick if the Eagles can’t grab an obvious choice.

Random fliers:

• Patrick Ramsey — Career backup. Not a fabulous option.
• Dante Culpepper — It would be pretty funny if the Eagles sent McNabb away and brought in his (much less successful) draft peer. Yay, long ball.
• Rex Grossman — Who knows.

Did I miss anyone? Going to put up another post soon on quarterback draft prospects the Eagles might look at this year. Check back for that one.