The Summer of the Blogger: AKA Reporting Above Replacement

There's a concept in sports statistics (pioneered in baseball) called "value over replacement player." The idea is that you can quantify the level of production provided by the average player off the street, the plug-in backup who provides little more than a body with no added skills. He's the replacement player, the baseline from which you evaluate all others.

Value over replacement is a great concept to remember during recent debates over the practice squad (Newsflash: none of those guys really matter much). But it also came to mind recently during conversations about the current state of NFL beat reporting. If you follow some of the stalwart Philly reporters, you may have seen griping about their jobs turning into an overemphasis on film breakdowns over "real reporting" or "compelling stories." 

But you can see that's what the people want. This summer, IgglesBlog's Derek Sarley was hired by the Daily News to cover Xs & Os. Blogging The Beast's Jimmy Kempski has a regular gig at Philly.com now, where he can do film breakdowns, stats, and his patented stick-figure paint drawings. Sheil Kapadia continues to kill it over at Birds 24/7. Smart Football's Chris Brown is the hottest national football writer, period.

There seems to be a collective exasperation from the old guard of reporters (most of them aren't actually old) as to how to adapt to the Summer of the Blogger. Some are "blaming" Chip Kelly for the esoteric focus. But the truth is that this wasn't an overnight change, only the culmination of forces that have been brewing for years. 

It's easy to go back to say "the Internet changed everything," but I'm not talking about learning how to Tweet out links to stories. There has always been an intense hunger for coverage on our favorite sports teams, but it was filtered through a limited number of news outlets: newspapers and television. Now anyone with a Tumblr blog or a SBNation login can throw out their ill-informed opinions on a play call. Every roster change can be Bleacher Report-ized from three different sides before lunch. And, perhaps most important, the official Eagles Twitter account can be re-tweeted by every fan from here to Sweden and back.

When we're talking about value over replacement, until recently simply having access to the locker room, to the press box was enough to add value because only a limited number of people could be there. Now, largely thanks to PhiladelphiaEagles.com, that's not true. Everyone can watch the press conferences, the practices, the locker room interviews. We can get all the latest developments directly from the Eagles mouthpiece.

The point is that the replacement reporter and commentator has improved. Fans no longer need their beat guys to fall all over themselves trying to re-cut the latest press release into "me too" Tweets. Nor do they need more barely-informed, warmed-over columns that they could find in any backwater SEO-factory. They need value above and beyond that, which is why the response to called-up bloggers like Derek and Jimmy have been so positive.

To me, there are basically four ways to provide added value:

  1. News Breaker: Tell us something we don't already know, or at least didn't know yet. And no, being the first to turn a Howie Roseman mass text into a Tweet doesn't count. For as many beat reporters as there are covering the Eagles, there's surprisingly little news broken by outlets other than the team itself. Tim McManus does a good job gathering sources, as do Reuben Frank, Jeff McLane and some others. 
  2. Enthusiastic Aggregator: Fans want everything on their favorite team, from minute-by-minute breakdowns of training camp, to interview transcripts, to photos of the smoothies players get when they come off the field. And they're busy, so they want to know what else is being intelligently said about their team elsewhere. Some of the older beat guys don't understand this obsession, so they've been reluctant to embrace coverage of such minutia. But Jimmy and Sheil clearly get it, as do the guys running Eagles Pravda. 
  3. Behind The Scenes: Where are the long form profiles of players across the roster? Where are the deep dives into the organization, the coaches, the decision-makers? Maybe I've missed them among other coverage, or they've been shut behind pay walls, but there's plenty of room for "compelling stories" about the Eagles -- and the major news outlets have the best shot at finding them. I'd love to know more about the people behind the curtain, but it seems reporters spend more time parroting the same talking points instead of rooting them out.
  4. Analyst: Whether it's from stats, film review, scouting, Xs & Os, there's a healthy desire to learn more about the the game of football and specifically their team. You can see it in the way fans adore Tommy Lawlor's independent scouting and even give props to anyone who can put together a competent set of game screenshots. They don't just want more coverage, they want coverage that asks why something happened, and then tries to answer. I'm not sure why that would ever be a bad thing. 

Basic news has been commodified, but value-added reporting isn't a zero sum game. A film breakdown doesn't detract from a player profile or a breaking news story. There's room for all of it, and in fact greater hunger for anything above-replacement than ever before. Instead of criticizing the change, embrace it, learn from it, be inspired by it. 

Eagles-Jaguars Preseason Thoughts: How To Combat The Scrape-Exchange

Is it too late to talk about the Eagles' third preseason game? Hope not, because that's what I'm about to do. 

  •  When we last talked, I was remarking about how bad Trent Cole looks in his new role. Shocker: he's still bad. In the few nickel snaps that he put his hand in the ground and rushed the passer, Cole got some good pressure (as he always has). But putting him in space does no one any good in coverage and it has so far hindered his naturally good run defense. Especially bad: any play that has him line up over the slot receiver and blitz. First, it's not fooling anyone. Second, he's too far away from the quarterback to do any damage.
  • Luckily, the rest of the linebacking core is shaping up well so far. DeMeco Ryans has been solid, if unspectacular. Mychal Kendricks was a force all over the field against the Jagurs, and was often brought on blitzes up the middle (with Cole dropping back though). On the other side, Connor Barwin continues to impress. His interception was the most athletic feat we've seen an awhile at linebacker. Interesting note: on that play, the Eagles kept their base defense in on Jacksonville's 2nd and 19, against 4 WRs and 1 TE. Odd choice.
  • I am a paying member of the Patrick Chung fan club. He's not a star, but watching him come up and make solid tackles is a revelation. 
  • I didn't think Michael Vick was as horrible as the post-game narrative suggested. He held on to the ball too long a few times and threw one bad pick. But Vick also made some laser completions and showed ample mobility. He was never going to be as perfect as he had shown through the first two contests. Plus, the offensive line wasn't exactly in peak form early.
  • In truth, the offense Chip Kelly had Vick run seldom resembled that of the previous games. There was more under-center snaps and down-the-field passing routes than we were shown before. As some remarked, it looked at times more like an Andy Reid offense than one run by Kelly.
  •  Sheil Kapadia has a good breakdown of what looks like the Jaguars using the scrape-exchange to combat the zone read. Here's what it looks like below. As in their typical zone read play, the Eagles let the defensive end go unblocked, with Lane Johnson crashing down on the guard, and Todd Herremans releasing to the second level. However, in the scrape-exchange, the defensive end is trained to immediately come down the line at the running back, forcing the QB keeper. The linebacker Herremans must reach arcs around the outside instead (away from the would-be block) and gets in Vick's face right away:
Scrape Exchange.png
  • It worked great in the above play, but not only is the scrape hard to pull off, it's not all that difficult to combat either.  The first way is simply for Vick to get better at running the QB keeper and executing the second option. On this play he ran vertically too quickly instead of laterally, negating any chance to throw the quick bubble screen to DeSean Jackson.
  • The second way is even easier: just don't run the zone read. Think about what happens in the above play if the Jaguars defenders get too comfortable executing the scrape, only to have the Eagles block normally. If Johnson and Herremans take on their defenders straight up and the linebacker comes around the edge instead of up the middle, there's going to be a huge hole for the running back. The offense can use further deception with an H-back in the backfield. That player come across the formation to lead blocker with multiple choices about who to attack. The below image comes from Chris Brown's (always excellent) breakdown of this technique:

grant_e_gore12_576.jpg
  • Want another option? How about stop reading the defensive end? By mixing up the read, you can keep defenders unsure of their responsibility. Last time we talked about a play where the Eagles read a defensive tackle. Here's a similar play in which Vick reads the linebacker(s):
  • And here's even more variation. This time the Eagles read the end, but if Vick keeps it he's running behind a pulling guard in Evan Mathis. Bryce Brown picks up 11 yards to the left on this run after the zone read freezes the unblocked defender, but I wonder how many yards Vick would have gotten had he pulled it down himself to the right:
  • By the way, Jamar Chaney did seemingly everything possible to try to get cut over the last couple of years. What finally did him in? Not being able to block a punter on special teams. Ouch.
  • And what is the Toddfather doing below cavorting with the enemy, aka Jason Baboon?
Babin Herremans.png

Eagles-Patriots Preseason Thoughts: This Offense Is Going To Be Fun

  • I'm not fretting about Fletcher Cox. As Derek Sarley laid out quite plainly, the problem on those first few run plays was much more about spacing in the new 3-4 defensive lineup. The bigger problem was Trent Cole, who looked totally out of place as a stand-up linebacker. Maybe he'll get better, but I wouldn't count on it. The sample size wasn't large, but I thought Brandon Graham looked a lot more comfortable out there. 
  • In nickel packages the Eagles tended to switch to a four-down linemen look, and Cole looked like his normal self there. Back in April I suggested that the coaches keep Cole as a down rusher -- even consider starting him at 3-4 defensive end. That latter option is probably off the table now that Cole has slimmed down for his OLB role, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him has a dedicated pass rush specialist in exclusive four-linemen looks before long.
  • As a broader point, the 3-4 defensive transition is going to be rough. Not only do some of the players not fit into their defined roles, but the spacing issues will probably continue. Good offensive coaches will exploit this inexperienced front, and Mychal Kendricks and DeMeco Ryans are going to get mauled at the second level.

  • On the touchdown pass, Sheil Kapadia says:  "Vick said [DeSean] went deep because the Patriots had a single high safety." Jackson's ability to stretch coverage is even more necessary now that Jeremy Maclin is out for the year. If can't keep safeties honest, the run game and short passes become difficult.
  • Zach Ertz looks like he needs some serious work. He's not a speedy receiver (only 4.68 second 40 yard dash) and he looks totally lost blocking. Here Ertz is at the top of the formation letting Jerod Mayo (admittedly a good linebacker) get by him without so much as slowing him down. While the offensive line is getting a good push up the middle, Mayo comes in off the edge unblocked and makes the tackle:

  • Here's a cool play: a zone-read design where the quarterback is looking at the defensive tackle instead of the end. It's the Eagles' fourth play from scrimmage, with Vick deciding whether to hand off to Chris Polk or keep it himself. The typical zone-read we've seen in the NFL so far (and we also saw from the Eagles on Friday night) involves letting the defensive end come upfield unblocked. If he goes for the QB, you hand it off. If he goes for the RB, the QB keeps it. Same idea here, but Vick is reading Vince Wilfork at defensive tackle. If he had sprinted to his left to get Polk, Vick would have had a huge hole up the middle. Because he stayed in his lane, Polk gets the hand off and has two double teams to run behind on the right (click to embiggen):
  • Just as I was drawing this play up, Chris Brown posted an extensive review of Chip's play calling, including this one (with a gif). You should definitely check that out.
  • Brown talks about "packaged plays" as well, and Sheil has a glorious medley of screen caps on those run-pass options.
  • However, my favorite play of the night was the one below. What looked like a zone-read play to the left was really a play-action rollout to the backside. Vick has a clear run-pass option on this play and it's killer for the defense. This is something Foles doesn't present -- a dangerous running threat out of the backfield. The Patriots defenders who weren't sucked in by the play action aren't sure whether to converge on Vick or cover their receivers, so neither happens. Easy 19-yard completion to Riley Cooper:
  • Lane Johnson looked athletic and powerful. Sheil had good shots of him pancaking defenders and getting to the second level: here and here. 
  • Fellow Eagles Almanac scribe Dan Klausner is trying to convince me that Chris Polk is ready for the big time. I'm open to the idea, but haven't seen it yet. Certainly he is the better pass blocker (see Sheil's screencaps here), but Bryce Brown is a much more dangerous weapon. Watching him explode through holes or grab passes out of the backfield, it's obvious that Brown's someone you want to have the ball. Perhaps it's a silly hypothetical, but I can't shake the feeling that Brown would have exploded through that hole for a first down on the Wilfork zone-read.
  • Nick Foles moved the ball very efficiently in the Eagles' first real up tempo test. See more from Jimmy Kempski.

For much much more on everything Chip Kelly and the Birds, buy the Eagles Almanac!

Chip Kelly Is Already Two Steps Ahead Of NFL Defenses

In his Sunday training camp rundown, Sheil Kapadia mentioned one play the Eagles ran that caught my eye:

The Eagles run what initially seems like a read-option play, but instead of taking off, Vick unleashes a pass to McCoy, who is out wide.

It's just one small play in a whole day of practice, but the implications are much greater—it shows that Chip Kelly is a couple steps ahead of the NFL defenses he's facing. Opposing coaches have been studying up on the zone read, trying to get a handle on stopping it before it expands even more widely this season. Last week, Chris Brown wrote a fantastic piece on that quest, as did Greg Bedard—who had Stanford's Derek Mason take him through the learning process NFL coordinators are facing.

If you read those articles, you'll understand the difficulty inherent in facing an offense capable of running the read option. You'll also see suggestions that NFL defenses can catch up if they adopt the "scrape-exchange" and other policies that expert college teams have worked on. But while coaches are trying to teach their defenders how to fight back, Kelly is bringing in a host of new ideas from the college level, most notably turning the "regular" zone read we've already seen from Robert Griffin III and Colin Kaepernick into a triple option attack.

Brown wrote about these variations back in 2009. He described how the triple option off the zone read is easy to do with a third runner in the backfield, but also how bubble screens and other pass options can be even more deadly and unpredictable way to keep the defense honest. Here's Fishduck on Kelly's use of the bubble screen: 

Most of what Fishduck talks about in the related article is using the bubble screen as a constraint play to keep the defense honest. Many times, the read is taking place before the snap, and the zone read is little more than a play-action pass. But other times, as in 1:40 in the video, the quarterback is reading two defenders. After pulling the ball based on the defensive end crashing down, he sees the outside linebacker coming at him too. Instead of taking a loss, the quarterback has a third option to throw a quick bubble pass.

Kelly actually talks about that exact play in this video (at 2:15) with Urban Meyer:

The key, as you learn from Fishduck above, is that a third pass option added to the zone read makes it that much harder to defend. The defense can't load defenders into the box without the quarterback making an easy switch to the outside pass (without even needing to audible). Moreover, even if they execute the scrape-exchange properly and get a defender on the quarterback keeper, he still has an option to throw. 

Nothing about this is fool-proof, and a sound defense can slow down the triple option threat (or keep it to dink-and-dunk down the field). But NFL teams still trying to catch up to last year's version of the zone read are going to be falling down if they don't adjust to what Kelly is adding on to it.

Also: Buy the Eagles Almanac 2013 if you haven't already! 

Eagles Almanac 2013 PDF On Sale Now!

If you missed out on the Kickstarter pre-ordering process, now's your chance to get the Eagles Almanac 2013! Stuffed to the brim with nearly 100 pages of pure Eagles content, the Almanac tells you everything you didn't know you needed to know about Chip Kelly and the future of the team. Download it now for just $10. 

And check back soon for the paperback copy to go on sale.

The Absentee Blogger

I've gotten a few notes asking why there hasn't been new content up here. I apologize, but recently I've barely had enough time to keep up with day-to-day Eagles news, let alone comment on it. My day job has been busy and what free time I do have is going into the Eagles Almanac that many of you lovely readers pre-ordered.

(By the way, if you missed the Kickstarter, throw us your name and email here and we'll let you know when the book is available for regular purchase.) 

While there's not much real news to speak of right now (fake controversies aside), you can still get your summer fix plenty of other places in the blogosphere. I don't need to tell you about the work Tommy does day in and out. BGN covers everything and Brent can feed your number-crunching fix. Meanwhile, Sheil and Tim are tag-teaming my personal favorite one-stop-shopping over at Birds 24/7.

See you soon.

Last Chance to Pre-Order the Eagles Almanac

I know it's been quiet around these parts as ​I've been swamped at my real job. Just wanted to mention one last time about the Eagles Almanac. This is the last week you can pre-order the book. We will put the it up for normal sale later in the summer, but only those folks who pre-order can ensure that they get their copy before training camp begins. Plus, there are bonus extras that are only available through a Kickstarter pledge.

Get your order in now!​