Confident Comeback

Jason Peters talked to the media yesterday for the first time since his season-ending injury last year. Sheil Kapadia brings us the money quotes:

Asked what kind of difference he could have made, Peters said, “A big difference. I’m a starter. I’m the number one offensive lineman in the league. So me being out there carries everybody else and makes them play their best. It was a big part, me not being out there, so I’m back now.”

“I’m going to do what I’ve been doing,” Peters said. “Any time I get an offensive line coach, I don’t forget what I learned from the last one. I just take what he gives me and add it on to my game. So it’s not that I’m going to throw away Howard Mudd’s stuff. I’m just going to add on what Coach Stoutland’s going to give me."

“Any player will tell you… you wouldn’t see Tom Brady change his game if he got a new coach. He’s going to be Tom Brady. So same thing I’m going to bring to the table this year. I’m going to play hard. Whatever scheme they give me, I’m going to do it 100 miles an hour.”

I've talked (briefly) with Peters in the locker room and listened to/read a number of quotes from him over the last few years. He's never been the most expressive player, but right now he appears enthusiastic, confident, and motivated. Hopefully this is a positive sign.

No Quarterback, No Problem?

Jeff McLane writes:

There may be plenty of reasons the Eagles won't draft Geno Smith with the No. 4 overall pick. But Chip Kelly's belief that his offense can thrive without a franchise quarterback suggests that a team with many needs will pass on the West Virginia prospect... Kelly stated two weeks ago at the NFL owners meetings that his system doesn't require a Tom Brady-like quarterback "because we didn't have a traditional marquee quarterback at Oregon."

I wouldn't necessarily take those words at face value, especially when Kelly also described quarterback as "the key position" in the NFL. Still, this highlights one of the biggest doubts I have about transporting Kelly's offense to the pros. I've discussed this before -- just because he had a 65 percent run-to-pass ratio at Oregon doesn't mean he can slot in any quarterback at this level. The best teams have the best quarterbacks, and I'm skeptical of any suggestion that Kelly can do without one long term.

The Biggest Question Mark

The Eagles have now made a number of free agent moves, almost all on the defensive side of the ball. Given that unit's poor play, such focus wasn't unexpected. The team needed at least four new defensive backs and some 3-4 building blocks. But I'm puzzled as to the front office's seaming lack of worry about one offensive position -- and it isn't quarterback.

Whither the offensive line? This is an area that so far at least has been totally ignored in free agency, despite a multitude of questions. I understand there's a lot of optimism surrounding the o-line, as everyone comes back from injuries. Football Outsiders tracks injuries with their Adjusted Games Lost metric:

Not that Eagles fans need another reason for self-loathing, but congratulations, your team had the highest offensive line AGL on record and the largest-ever increase in offensive line AGL. In 2011, only Jason Peters had an AGL above 1.0. In 2012, there were five: Peters (16.0), Jason Kelce (14.0), Todd Herremans (8.0), King Dunlap (2.0), and Danny Watkins (2.0). I don't think it's a stretch to muse that the offensive line injuries played a role in producing the third-worst quarterback AGL this year as well.

That kind of historic injury collapse is unlikely to happen again, so there's a lot of potential for a rebound season. But that conveniently avoids the underlying fact that the team has three starters returning from season-ending injuries -- including Peters coming back from a wicked ruptured Achilles tendon. We don't know if any of these players, especially Peters, will be the same players they once were.

Moreover, even putting aside the injuries themselves, we're looking at an increasingly aging line. The four presumed starters -- Peters, Mathis, Kelce, Herremans -- have an average age of 30. Teams can do well despite older offensive lines (Jimmy Kempski has tracked average age the last two seasons and coincidentally both times the oldest line has worked for the Super Bowl winner). But that doesn't mean it's a good idea overall to trust aging players during a rebuilding process. Are we sure that Peters and Herremans and Mathis are solid options for the next 2-3 years?

There are also major questions about performance. Danny Watkins is still around, for now. He's likely an unsalvageable bust at guard but there's no obvious replacement on the roster. Herremans had a subpar year in 2012 at right tackle. Is he capable of manning that spot long term, or does the team need to kick him back inside as an expensive guard? If so, they'll need a new offensive tackle, which is even harder to find than a new interior lineman.

And all of the above is just about the starting spots. As we saw last year, it's vital to have depth that you can count on. Right now, with the possible exception of Dennis Kelly, there's not a lot to like about any of the backups.

Howie Roseman and Chip Kelly have talked about filling holes now so that they are free to take the best player available in the draft. That's a good strategy, but they seem to have completely ignored this one glaring need. There were three intriguing right tackles on the open market, including Jake Long, who has already signed. Could Andre Smith or Sebastian Vollmer be on the docket next? Both have serious question marks, but a young, talented tackle would do so much to shore up this position.

There may be top linemen available with the Eagles' first pick, but you can't count on that -- and you also don't want to prevent yourself from going after a different player that you like better. Unless they make a late move here though, that's looking like the path the team is headed down.

Photo from Getty.

Lights, Cameras, Revolution

I don't often link to articles not about the NFL or the Eagles, but this one deserves a read. Zach Lowe of Grantland gets an unprecedented inside look at the camera-tracking system used by the NBA's Toronto Raptors to analyze and compute optimal playing styles. I don't want to be that guy who always yells, "This is the future of sports analytics," but it sure is cool. Some NFL teams are also experimenting with cameras, GPS, and other similar systems.

Set Your Expectations Accordingly

Jason Brewer on new Eagles safety Kenny Philips' contract:

Phillips' contract has no signing bonus or guaranteed money. He has a $1 million roster bonus that he'll get if he makes the team and $850k base salary. Adam Caplan reports that he could earn another million if he reaches certain incentives.

According to reports, the Giants did make Phillips an offer in an attempt to keep him from hitting the free agent market. But when you look at how little he signed for, you have to wonder whether the Giants offered even less or whether it was some sort of "take it or leave" deal that he left.

Only about $100,000 more than the veteran's miminum salary and a roster bonus that doesn't kick in unless he makes the team. That's not so much "team-friendly" as it is "this guy has nothing left." It would be tough for the Giants to sneak under that low bar. They clearly didn't want him or his knee issues. At this point, I expect absolutely nothing from Philips.

Another Cog in the Machine

Great All-22 breakdown of new Eagles wideout Arrelious Benn's skills by Sheil Kapadia:

The two key terms with him are YAC and versatility. In 2011, he averaged 6.6 yards after the catch, 11th in the NFL, per PFF. In 2010, it was 6.3, which was tied for sixth.

Benn’s size can be a bit misleading in this respect. Given his size, he doesn’t break a lot of tackles, but as the YAC numbers show, he clearly can be elusive.

Benn is 6'2", 220 lbs and only 24 years old. The team's overall free agency parameters right now appear to be youth, flexibility, and size -- all on the cheap.

Connor Barwin and the Pass Rushers

The Eagles made a surprise move on Thursday, adding 3-4 outside linebacker Connor Barwin. The initial reports of the deal were of an imposing six-year, $36 million contract. But only the first two years are guaranteed ($8 million), and the three-year total is just $13.5 million. That's quite a reasonable deal for a young pass rusher, although it muddles the overall defensive picture. Let's talk it out.

First, there's Barwin himself. The 26-year-old former Houston Texan was drafted in the second round in 2009. In his first season (as a 4-3 defensive end), Barwin registered 4.5 sacks in a backup role. After an injury in the 2010 opener caused him to miss the entire season, he returned as a starting OLB in Wade Philips' 3-4 defense the next year, notching 11.5 sacks. Last year, while he played 94 percent of the team's defensive snaps, Barwin regressed to only 3 sacks.

It's tough to know exactly what that means. 19 sacks in your first three real seasons is impressive, although Barwin would be making a lot more money if his 2011 results had come last year. Pro Football Focus' pressure per play numbers were never that high on Barwin, even during 2011, and they declined further in 2012. Howie Roseman excused that performance, saying Barwin had fewer opportunities last year to play on the "open side" of the formation away from the tight end. He did rush the passer 86 percent of the time.

Overall I think the move is fine. The more detailed contract numbers suggest that Barwin is being paid like an above average but not great pass rusher. At only 26, he still has upside, and he's the first guy the Eagles added with extensive experience as a 3-4 edge rusher. Plus, his 6'4", 260 lb. frame fits Chip Kelly's new physical mandate. Tough to argue with any of that.

The bigger question is how the Barwin signing dominoes through the rest of the lineup. The Eagles have three incumbent players who seem likely to be slotted at outside linebacker: Trent Cole, Brandon Graham, and Vinny Curry. Without much data on Curry, he was going to be fighting for playing time regardless. Graham came on strong last year, with 5.5 sacks and a ridiculous 17.3 PRP from Pro Football Focus. It's unclear if he can make the transition to the 3-4, but he does seem to have a bright future ahead of him. Cole had a down year, though, and he's entering his age 31 season. His ability to convert to a new defense is even more suspect. If Cole's contract wasn't so onerous he would have been traded by now.

Another complicating layer is that we don't know what the defense is really going to look like. If they go with the Billy Davis hybrid, all of the above players seem more like Predators than SAMs; they're primarily pass rushers who rarely drop back into coverage. Of course, having too many good pass rushers is rarely a problem, and Kelly is always preaching about catering the scheme to the players on hand. Final note: I doubt that the Barwin signing prevents the team from drafting another OLB early. To reiterate, there are questions with all of the current players, and the newcomer's deal is smaller than first thought. There are no guarantees going forward.

Other Notes:

Cary Williams & Kenny Phillips continue the trend of youth and high risk-reward signings that makes sense for a rebuilding team. A player like Philips, for example, has proven to be a good safety. A small bet on his health is a smart move, and it's even better in the secondary, where the team needs a complete overhaul.
Sheil has good notes on Geno Smith's workout with the Birds. Interesting to hear what kind of drills Kelly ran him through.

Photo from Getty.

The Geno Smith Parade

The Eagles worked out the West Virginia QB earlier this week in Morgantown, and they brought owner Jeff Lurie with them. When asked if that means the Eagles are going to take a quarterback early in the draft, Chip Kelly demurred. From Tim McManus:

“You know, I don’t know,” said Kelly. “I know one thing about since I’ve been here is we’re going to look at anybody and everybody that can help us win football games. If it takes us getting on a plane to watch a guy go work out or bring someone in, they’re not going to be the last two guys that we go to see or bring in here to see. Just because it’s quarterbacks people get enamored with that.”

Smith is widely considered the best quarterback in the draft and the Eagles hold the No. 4 pick, so obviously it will get people’s attention when word gets out that the team brass hopped a flight to work him out. That is especially true when owner Jeffrey Lurie is along for the ride.

I'm torn on what this means for the Eagles' plans, but at the end of the day I come down on the side that they are actually less interested in Geno Smith than we might have thought. Sure, they sent a full contingent of coaches, scouts, and even Lurie down to watch him. Due diligence is important. But I think if he were really at the top of the team's list, they would have been more subtle.

Remember: last year the Eagles paraded Dontari Poe past reporters at NovaCare, then sent Jim Washburn down to Mississippi to work out Fletcher Cox in private.