I don't often link to articles not about the NFL or the Eagles, but this one deserves a read. Zach Lowe of Grantland gets an unprecedented inside look at the camera-tracking system used by the NBA's Toronto Raptors to analyze and compute optimal playing styles. I don't want to be that guy who always yells, "This is the future of sports analytics," but it sure is cool. Some NFL teams are also experimenting with cameras, GPS, and other similar systems.
Set Your Expectations Accordingly
Jason Brewer on new Eagles safety Kenny Philips' contract:
Phillips' contract has no signing bonus or guaranteed money. He has a $1 million roster bonus that he'll get if he makes the team and $850k base salary. Adam Caplan reports that he could earn another million if he reaches certain incentives.
According to reports, the Giants did make Phillips an offer in an attempt to keep him from hitting the free agent market. But when you look at how little he signed for, you have to wonder whether the Giants offered even less or whether it was some sort of "take it or leave" deal that he left.
Only about $100,000 more than the veteran's miminum salary and a roster bonus that doesn't kick in unless he makes the team. That's not so much "team-friendly" as it is "this guy has nothing left." It would be tough for the Giants to sneak under that low bar. They clearly didn't want him or his knee issues. At this point, I expect absolutely nothing from Philips.
Another Cog in the Machine
Great All-22 breakdown of new Eagles wideout Arrelious Benn's skills by Sheil Kapadia:
The two key terms with him are YAC and versatility. In 2011, he averaged 6.6 yards after the catch, 11th in the NFL, per PFF. In 2010, it was 6.3, which was tied for sixth.
Benn’s size can be a bit misleading in this respect. Given his size, he doesn’t break a lot of tackles, but as the YAC numbers show, he clearly can be elusive.
Benn is 6'2", 220 lbs and only 24 years old. The team's overall free agency parameters right now appear to be youth, flexibility, and size -- all on the cheap.
Connor Barwin and the Pass Rushers
The Eagles made a surprise move on Thursday, adding 3-4 outside linebacker Connor Barwin. The initial reports of the deal were of an imposing six-year, $36 million contract. But only the first two years are guaranteed ($8 million), and the three-year total is just $13.5 million. That's quite a reasonable deal for a young pass rusher, although it muddles the overall defensive picture. Let's talk it out.
First, there's Barwin himself. The 26-year-old former Houston Texan was drafted in the second round in 2009. In his first season (as a 4-3 defensive end), Barwin registered 4.5 sacks in a backup role. After an injury in the 2010 opener caused him to miss the entire season, he returned as a starting OLB in Wade Philips' 3-4 defense the next year, notching 11.5 sacks. Last year, while he played 94 percent of the team's defensive snaps, Barwin regressed to only 3 sacks.
It's tough to know exactly what that means. 19 sacks in your first three real seasons is impressive, although Barwin would be making a lot more money if his 2011 results had come last year. Pro Football Focus' pressure per play numbers were never that high on Barwin, even during 2011, and they declined further in 2012. Howie Roseman excused that performance, saying Barwin had fewer opportunities last year to play on the "open side" of the formation away from the tight end. He did rush the passer 86 percent of the time.
Overall I think the move is fine. The more detailed contract numbers suggest that Barwin is being paid like an above average but not great pass rusher. At only 26, he still has upside, and he's the first guy the Eagles added with extensive experience as a 3-4 edge rusher. Plus, his 6'4", 260 lb. frame fits Chip Kelly's new physical mandate. Tough to argue with any of that.
The bigger question is how the Barwin signing dominoes through the rest of the lineup. The Eagles have three incumbent players who seem likely to be slotted at outside linebacker: Trent Cole, Brandon Graham, and Vinny Curry. Without much data on Curry, he was going to be fighting for playing time regardless. Graham came on strong last year, with 5.5 sacks and a ridiculous 17.3 PRP from Pro Football Focus. It's unclear if he can make the transition to the 3-4, but he does seem to have a bright future ahead of him. Cole had a down year, though, and he's entering his age 31 season. His ability to convert to a new defense is even more suspect. If Cole's contract wasn't so onerous he would have been traded by now.
Another complicating layer is that we don't know what the defense is really going to look like. If they go with the Billy Davis hybrid, all of the above players seem more like Predators than SAMs; they're primarily pass rushers who rarely drop back into coverage. Of course, having too many good pass rushers is rarely a problem, and Kelly is always preaching about catering the scheme to the players on hand. Final note: I doubt that the Barwin signing prevents the team from drafting another OLB early. To reiterate, there are questions with all of the current players, and the newcomer's deal is smaller than first thought. There are no guarantees going forward.
Other Notes:
- Cary Williams & Kenny Phillips continue the trend of youth and high risk-reward signings that makes sense for a rebuilding team. A player like Philips, for example, has proven to be a good safety. A small bet on his health is a smart move, and it's even better in the secondary, where the team needs a complete overhaul.
- Sheil has good notes on Geno Smith's workout with the Birds. Interesting to hear what kind of drills Kelly ran him through.
Photo from Getty.
The Geno Smith Parade
The Eagles worked out the West Virginia QB earlier this week in Morgantown, and they brought owner Jeff Lurie with them. When asked if that means the Eagles are going to take a quarterback early in the draft, Chip Kelly demurred. From Tim McManus:
“You know, I don’t know,” said Kelly. “I know one thing about since I’ve been here is we’re going to look at anybody and everybody that can help us win football games. If it takes us getting on a plane to watch a guy go work out or bring someone in, they’re not going to be the last two guys that we go to see or bring in here to see. Just because it’s quarterbacks people get enamored with that.”
Smith is widely considered the best quarterback in the draft and the Eagles hold the No. 4 pick, so obviously it will get people’s attention when word gets out that the team brass hopped a flight to work him out. That is especially true when owner Jeffrey Lurie is along for the ride.
I'm torn on what this means for the Eagles' plans, but at the end of the day I come down on the side that they are actually less interested in Geno Smith than we might have thought. Sure, they sent a full contingent of coaches, scouts, and even Lurie down to watch him. Due diligence is important. But I think if he were really at the top of the team's list, they would have been more subtle.
Remember: last year the Eagles paraded Dontari Poe past reporters at NovaCare, then sent Jim Washburn down to Mississippi to work out Fletcher Cox in private.
Thoughts on Free Agency Day 1
The Eagles were active on the first day of free agency. Although they didn't go after any of the big names, Howie Roseman and company made a bevy of smaller moves. Let's break them down.
Cut Nnamdi Asomugha. Finally. Now we can all celebrate.
Signed Isaac Sopoaga. According to Albert Breer, it's a three-year deal worth $12 million, with $5 million guaranteed. First of all, I doubt it's really for three years. Sopoaga is 31 years old, and he'll be 32 when September rolls around. That's not a player you count on a few years down the road. Second, I don't particularly like this signing. As I said on Monday, it's time to rebuild from the ground up. You want the Eagles to get younger -- something their other signings accomplished -- not older. Sopoaga serves one purpose only, and it's similar to the one Michael Vick is serving: he allows the coaching staff to implement a new scheme immediately. That's valuable as the defense converts to 3-4 hybrid, but I'd rather see them bring in younger nose tackles instead. Hopefully they still will.
Signed Bradley Fletcher. Jordan Raanan says the deal is two years, $5.25 million plus incentives. This is a fascinating move. Lots of people are high on the young corner (he turns 27 this summer), including Tommy Lawlor, who says Bradley has "the best pure cover skills of any CB on the market." Yet he was demoted last year, previously suffered a knee injury, and received a relatively cheap deal that itself suggests he wasn't highly valued. Bradley immediately becomes the most experienced corner on the roster, and one of the starting spots is his to lose. I'm cautiously optimistic.
Signed James Casey. I know lots of folks were hoping for a stretch-the-field athlete at tight end like Jared Cook. But this is probably better (and cheaper). Casey is a fullback/tight end hybrid who the Eagles gave a three-year, $14.5 million deal. What's great about that versatility (he even played WR and QB in college at Rice) is that Casey can shift all around the formation as Chip Kelly turns up the speed on his no-huddle offense. He's not amazing at any one role, but whenever he's on the field the team has a capable receiver, blocker, even running back at their disposal. As far as 29-year-old role players go, there's a lot of upside here. Matt Waldman has a good write-up on Casey's abilities.
Signed Patrick Chung. The Eagles needed to add more safeties, and the hard-hitting Chung certainly fits. The 2009 second-rounder fell out of favor in New England after a spate of injuries and poor coverage. Much like the Bradley signing, there's talent and youth to like here. Still, Bill Belichick knows as much about defensive back play as anyone, and he let Chung walk. Plus, analysis of his performance sounds a lot like a description of Kurt Coleman. That's never good. UPDATE: Apparently Chung's salary is "fully guaranteed" in 2013 and 2104, which makes no sense.
Signed Jason Philips. The 27-year-old journeyman is going to compete for an inside linebacker spot. You have to like his chances against the likes of Jamar Chaney and Casey Matthews, but he's nothing to get excited about.
Photo from Getty.
Free Agency Strategy for a New Era
Free agency kicks off this week (finally). The Eagles are sitting on over $30 million in cap space, and that number should jump over $40 million once they cut Nnamdi Asomugha. That kind of cap flexibility positions the team as a major buyer. The question, as always, is who is worth buying and at what price. But more broadly, how should the Eagles use this free agency period to set themselves up for long term success?
I don't need to rehash the dangers of free agency. You can draw a straight line from the summer of 2011 to the downfall of Andy Reid. But just because there are dangers doesn't mean the Eagles would be better off ignoring the rash of veterans on the open market. Looking back at the Reid era, we saw how making the right decisions can immensely help your team. Take Jon Runyan for example. He was signed in 2000, only Reid's second offseason. He became one of two bookend tackles that anchored the offense for the next decade.
The Runyan deal obviously looks great in hindsight, but you can see why it was likely to succeed. The team purchased a young player with top talent at a premium position. Those are really the only types of acquisitions I'm rooting for this time around. The Eagles have too many holes to think they can turn this around in a single offseason. Rather than try to plug everything, play the long game.
You obviously want to avoid older players, including stars. Even if the next Asomugha or Babin played well, they wouldn't still be good when the rest of the team is ready to make a leap. Furthermore, I see little benefit in buying up middling talent at this stage. This isn't a Super Bowl team about to make a run. Better to let youngsters battle it out with playing time than give snaps to a mediocre band-aid player.
Overall, and maybe this is common sense, but you should look at every potential acquisition and ask yourself, can this player be an integral part of a deep playoff run in 3 years? Actually, that's the same question you should ask about the players on the current roster. If the answer isn't a resounding yes, don't waste your money. Move on, get younger, start over.
Photo from Getty.
Chip Stew: Why Kelly Will Win Super Bowls In Philadelphia
Oregon blogger Charles Fisher seems as excited to watch Chip Kelly with the Eagles as he was watching his beloved Ducks:
The fans of Philadelphia have no idea what they are about to witness. The greatest sports experience of their lives is about to unfold over the next four years, and they will be delighted with the winning, but confounded by the methods. Football is not supposed to be coached this way, most will declare, but the NFL will be unalterably changed and Eagle fans will be in the eye of one of the greatest transformations the sport has seen. The more discerning football fans of this city will be entertained by more than touchdowns; they will also find themselves caught up in the intellectual fascination of the strategies implemented and the genius of a very special coach named Charles “Chip” Kelly. As he leaves Oregon and comes to Pennsylvania, I wish to offer as a parting gift a glimpse into why he will win Super Bowls at Philadelphia and give you the most total, overall thrills you can imagine from watching a football team.
Like you're not going to read the rest of an article that starts that way.