Chip Stew: As Likely to be the Next Great Coach as Anyone Else

Back in November, when Chip Kelly-to-the-NFL talk was only rumor, Chase Stuart disputed the notion that Kelly was likely to be the next Steve Spurrier. I know most Eagles fans have moved past this line of argument, but the broader context Stuart brings to the disucssion is still worthwhile:

But the bigger question isn’t ‘whether or not Kelly will fail’ because ultimately most coaches do. Rex Ryan was the toast of the town two years ago, reaching the AFC Championship Game in each of his first two seasons, and now seems on his way out the door. Tom Coughlin may be the single best coach in professional football, and Giants fans have wanted him fired for long stretches of his career. After awhile, every coach becomes a failure. Andy Reid is learning that lesson quite painfully in 2012...

Few elements of football are more art than science than the hiring of a head coach. The options always come with bright red flags. College coaches aren’t even in the same league as NFL coaches, young coordinators have never shown the ability to lead, and retreads have already proven that they can fail. The skills needed to make a person a great position coach or a great coordinator often have little overlap with what is needed of a head coach. And while it’s true that the skills needed to make a great college coach a great NFL coach are different as well, criticism of Kelly as ‘just a college coach’ is short-sighted. You can’t pluck the next Bill Walsh off of Craigslist. Kelly is smart, creative, and a proven winner. He can bring a level of clarity to an otherwise dysfunctional organization. To me, he’s the most attractive option out there for the half-dozen or so teams that will need a new coach in 2013.

Long Road Ahead

The Super Bowl takes place this weekend, and the Eagles will not be participating. Breaking news, everyone.

But in all seriousness, this is the height of the sport, and the Eagles are far, far away from getting back there. Let's just take a moment to realize how far. Look at the 49ers roster and try to think of players on the Eagles who could start for the NFC Champs. It's a short list.

On offense, San Francisco has two quarterbacks who are better than anyone on the Eagles roster. They have an athletic freak of a tight end, and two Pro Bowlers on their mauling offensive line. 2011 Jason Peters could play for them, but not sure you take the 2013 version over Joe Staley. Evan Mathis, the Eagles' best offensive lineman in 2012, is probably a notch below former first round pick Mike Iupati. I would take LeSean McCoy over Frank Gore, certainly. And DeSean Jackson beats old Randy Moss. But that's all.

Moving to the defensive side brings an even worse comparison. The 49ers have two of the best linebackers in the NFL, Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman. They also have two Pro Bowl pass rushers, Justin Smith and Aldon Smith, and both Pro Bowl safeties, Donte Whitner and Dashon Goldson. I love Fletcher Cox and maybe he can sneak in on the defensive line if we're being generous, but that's all.

That's three players -- make it four with Alex Henery over the dearly departed David Akers. You'll get the same results if you compare the Eagles to other championship teams, even the 2004 squad that made it to the Super Bowl. You wouldn't be able to sneak many 2013 Eagles on to that roster.

All of which is to say: this isn't a quick-fix job, it's a long-term rebuilding process. Set your expectations accordingly.

Photo from Getty.

Chip Stew: Changing the Way the NFL Thinks About Going for Two

For the latest entry in our Chip Stew series, let's look at the coach's aggressive approach to the game. Not only does he routinely go for it on fourth down (a move that's heavily backed by statistics), but Kelly also tries for two point-conversions far more than other coaches. Here's Michael David Smith:

In five of Oregon’s 13 games last season, the Ducks tried for a two-point conversion after scoring their first touchdown. Three of those five two-point tries were successful, and two were unsuccessful. When the Ducks didn’t go for two, they often sent out their field goal/PAT unit and had them line up in a trick-play formation, shifting into the standard kick formation only after seeing if the defense appeared ready to stop the play they planned to run.

Kelly’s approach to two-point conversions — trying them after taking a 6-0 lead, rather than only trying them late in the game when the “chart” says they should — is unheard of in the NFL. According to Aaron Schatz of FootballOutsiders.com, the last time a team tried for a two-point conversion in the first quarter (other than on bad snaps or fumbled holds when the team initially planned to kick the extra point) was in 1998. And even that play was done in an attempt to chase points by a team that had just scored a touchdown to narrow the deficit from 14-6 to 14-12 and wanted to tie the game with a two-point conversion.

The math behind attempting a two-point conversation is more questionable than going for it on fourth down. Brian Burke analyzed it a couple years ago. His numbers showed a potential advantage, especially if you run the ball (or execute a quarterback run), but it's not clear cut. Kelly seems to have confidence it can work, at least in college. I can't wait to see if he will bring that attitude to the NFL.

The Eagles' Quarterback Calendar

One of the most intriguing areas to watch this offseason will be the Eagles' maneuvering to find their 2013 quarterback. To that end, there's a clear month-by-month path that they have to undertake -- and it begins next week. 

February 6: If Michael Vick remains on the roster after this date, $3 million of his salary automatically becomes guaranteed. That makes the 6th the first important marker in the Eagles' decision-making process. Do they keep Vick, absorbing the contract hit because his athleticism may still be the best option for Chip Kelly's offense?

That's unlikely. Vick still has great mobility and a rocket arm, but his decision-making, despite a few years of tutoring from Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg, is questionable. Moreover, even if you can keep Vick happy and teach him a new offense, the upside is limited. He still wants to start, but will turn 33 before training camp with significant wear and tear on his body. At best you're buying a stop gap option, and that doesn't seem worth the $3 million guarantee. Expect the Eagles to sever ties with Vick after the Super Bowl.

[Update: As Sam Lynch points out, there is also the possibility that Vick and the team renegotiate his contract to avoid the guarantee. Not sure that's likely, but it's another outcome.]

March 12: Free agency begins. Unfortunately, there aren't many quarterbacks out there of note. Still, the Eagles should be dipping their toes into this pool if they let Vick walk. Players like Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Moore, and Jason Campbell are best suited to a backup role, but they might rather get a shot of competition in Philadelphia than automatically sit on the bench. Are you scraping the bottom of the barrel here? Sure. But every team needs depth and competition at the QB spot, and these options aren't going to be expensive. Maybe you get away without signing someone if you think Trent Edwards can adapt.

April 1: The only potential free agent who actually may be able to start is Alex Smith, currently under contract with the Super Bowl-bound 49ers. Smith, according to reports, has a contract clause that kicks in on April 1st that makes his entire $7.5 million salary guaranteed. San Francisco certainly isn't going to pay that, so they will look for suitors before having to cut him outright.

The Smith case will be interesting to watch because of the multitude of factors at play. The 49ers have to trade him in the month of March, or else cut him. They have little leverage unless multiple bidders step up. The question is, who would bid highly for Smith? At first glance, there are seven teams who will be in the Franchise QB hunt this offseason: Buffalo, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Oakland, Philadelphia, and Arizona. Most of them are in rebuilding phases where buying a soon-to-be 29-year-old quarterback isn't on the agenda. Plus, John Harbaugh and the 49ers haven't exactly treated Smith like a franchise guy. They openly flirted with Peyton Manning, then benched Smith in the middle of his best season for an unproven second-year player. That doesn't seem like a quarterback in whom you want to invest.

If I were the Eagles, I would part with a 2013 late round pick or a conditional selection in 2014 based on playing time for Smith. Certainly if the 49ers cut him, you have to investigate. He's no great quarterback, but competence and a dash of athleticism could still be valuable.

April 25-27: The NFL draft. If the Eagles handled free agency properly, they should have Nick Foles and at least one other potential starter (or at worst, a fair backup) at this point. You never want to enter the draft with a glaring need, especially at quarterback, or other teams will use that knowledge to their advantage. Plus, you just can't count on getting the guy you want.

Unfortunately, the Eagles (and other teams) are shackled with a poor class of quarterbacks. It's even poorer when you look for guys who could fit Chip Kelly's system. The order of all of these players is still being sorted out, but from what I've been reading, there are only a couple that really interest me. In the first round, Geno Smith out of West Virginia could be an option. No one thinks he's the second coming of RGIII, but he had a lengthy, productive college career throwing from the pocket and has some mobility to boot. Smith also seems likely to score highly on the Football Outsiders Lewin Forecast. 

While first round picks are less expensive than they once were, the Eagles shouldn't reach for Smith with the fourth overall pick unless they're sure he can be an elite guy. A later round option is EJ Manuel, the Florida State quarterback who was just named Most Outstanding Player at the Senior Bowl. Here's what Mike Tanier said about him last week:

Manuel is impressive on film and when discussing his game. He is not nearly as impressive when standing in a pocket and distributing passes in a stripped-down game plan. He has the size coaches covet (“He looks like a tight end out there,” Detroit Lions/South Squad coach Jim Schwartz said) but his best bet will be to follow the route of Wilson: earn a mid-round selection and find a coach amenable to his playing style -- perhaps Chip Kelly, who recruited Manuel out of high school and now coaches the Eagles.

Sounds promising. The nice thing about Manuel is that he potentially fits Kelly's style, and also wouldn't cost a top pick. Consensus suggests he's more of a 3rd-5th round prospect (at least, before his Senior Bowl performance). At that low risk, I'd draft Manuel in a heartbeat. Let him compete for the job in an up-tempo spread offense like he's used to. If it works out, maybe you've caught something similar to Russel Wilson. If not, move on without any huge cost.

July 22: Training camp will start sometime at the end of July. This is when the real competition begins between free agents, rookies, and the incumbent Foles. One note about Foles: I don't have anything against him, but he's essentially the fall back option here. He's cheap and has shown some skills. Don't hand him anything. Let Foles prove that he deserves to start -- and that he can compensate for his lack of running skills.

April 24-26 (2014): I've discussed before how the best way to find a franchise quarterback is to keep throwing them at the wall until one sticks. The general outline of pairing Foles with a rookie and a veteran free agent seems like the best way to pursue that path this year. But the nice thing is that you're not wedded to anyone long term. If none of those options work this time, you start over again. Next year's draft could be loaded with talented, athletic quarterbacks like Logan Thomas, Tahj Boyd, Teddy Bridgewater, and Johnny Manziel. When at first you don't succeed: try, try again.

Photo from Getty.

Injuries: A Reason for Optimism and Pessimism

Football Outsiders hasn't yet released their Adjusted Games Lost metric, which will document how affected each team was by injuries in 2012. In 2011, if you recall, the Eagles placed second among all teams with only 22 "games lost" by players due to injury. That low figure suggested that the team's disappointing season couldn't be excused by bad luck, and that there was little upside in terms of a regression to the mean. The disastrous 2012 campaign showed the truth of that hypothesis.

Although the full metric isn't out yet, we can already see a mixed bag with regard to injuries from last season. I went through and pulled a rough estimate for 2012 of the "games lost" by players because they were on the trainer's table and came up with 65. That would have placed the Eagles near the middle of the league overall. However, there's a massive split comparing offense to defense.

On the Eagles defense, few starters missed games due to injury. Trent Cole missed one, as did Mychal Kendricks and Fletcher Cox. But overall it was a remarkably healthy group. That's not a good thing when you're projecting for 2013. It would be nice to say "If only Nnamdi Asomugha and DeMeco Ryans and Cullen Jenkins were healthy, then things would have gone better." Instead, this was the best performance the Eagles defense could muster, despite staying relatively healthy. Don't expect a lucky bounce back next season.  

The offense is a different story, though. I counted about 60 games missed by starters on offense. Key skill players each missed a handful: Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson. Jason Avant, Brent Celek, and Jeremy Maclin also had a few. All together, that figure would have been right near the top of the league in 2011. But more amazing is the 40 games missed by the offensive line, including 30 just by Jason Peters and Jason Kelce alone. That's a staggering figure that is unlikely to be repeated in 2013.

As I said earlier in the week, the offense has a chance to make a quick recovery if players like Peters and Kelce return to form and the unit avoids the injury bug this year. There's your optimistic note going forward. I wish I could say the same about the defense.

Photo from Getty.

Chip Stew: For the Spread Generation Shall Inherit the Earth

For our second edition of Chip Stew, let's talk quarterback. Matt Hinton over at CBS Sports isn't discussing Chip Kelly per se, but about the new wave of quarterbacks coming up through the ranks who can both run and pass effectively:

Consider that before 2001, no player in Division I history had ever rushed for 1,000 yards in a season while also passing for 2,000 yards. Up to that point, the few quarterbacks who did manage to crack 1,000 on the ground were almost exclusively glorified tailbacks in triple-option schemes that rarely asked them to put the ball in the air. (Even the 1,000/1,000 milestone was unprecedented until 1981, the height of the option era.) Over the subsequent 11 years, from 2001 to 2011, a dozen different players broke the 2,000/1,000 barrier, all of them in spread offenses, some of them more than once. By the end of last year, the barrier had ceased to exist: The 2,000/1,000 Club added five new members in 2012 alone, all five of whom will be back this fall as part of the most versatile quarterback class the sport has ever produced. At least, so far.

Disappointingly, few of the quarterbacks in the 2013 draft class look like they fit the new mold perfectly. Kelly might not get a great young dual threat candidate this year, but going forward there will be more and more opportunities to do so.

The Most Important Eagle of 2013

Speculation abounds about the player who will quarterback Chip Kelly's offense in 2013. Free agency awaits, as does the draft. Michael Vick anticipates the unlikely $3 million payout his contract guarantees if he's on the Eagles roster on February 6th. Then there's Nick Foles, who surely hopes Kelly can adapt an offense to his skills.

A lot of questions, few answers. And, honestly, I'm not sure how much it matters, at least this year. Long term, Kelly is going to need to find a dynamic, elite quarterback. That's a large part of winning in today's NFL. But short term, I have confidence that an offensive innovator can make do with any number of options, from a fresh rookie with legs to the immobile Foles. Historically, Kelly hasn't asked his quarterback to carry the offensive load and he has never had an NFL-caliber QB. Oregon ran the ball 65 percent of the time last year, and the quarterback only averaged about 8 carries per game. The QB isn't quite so important when you build your offense around play makers -- and LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson and company sure are weapons Kelly can focus on.

So if, despite the hype, the quarterback isn't the most important Eagle of 2013, who is? To me, the answer is simple: Jason Peters.

Peters, the 6'4", 340 lb offensive tackle whose 40-yard dash at the NFL combine was only .04 seconds slower than Jason Kelce's, is a player with obvious and immense talent. He's been to five Pro Bowls, including two with the Eagles since the team sent a first round pick and change to the Buffalo Bills for him. It's no coincidence that McCoy had his breakout season in 2011, when Peters was absolutely destroying would-be tacklers.

Of course, in what was to be only the first in a long string of disappointments last year, Peters ruptured his Achilles tendon in the offseason and never played a down in 2012. The rest of the offensive line collapsed without him. Whether it was King Dunlap or Demetress Bell taking his place, left tackle became a major weakness. Evan Mathis held strong at guard, but Jason Kelce tore his ACL in the second game. Danny Watkins continued to be awful, and Todd Herremans regressed at right tackle before also falling prey to injury.

I know those injuries weren't correlated, but going forward the Eagles are going to need rebound performances from everyone -- especially Peters. While they may not need (at least at first) an elite quarterback, the team needs a solid offensive line. Last year, Oregon averaged just under 50 points per game. Kelly's offense was held under 35 points only once, when Stanford's defensive front dominated the Oregon offensive line and limited the Ducks to just two touchdowns. The play makers need space to work. The quarterback needs time. That starts and ends with the offensive line -- and the line starts and ends with Peters.

There's a fair chance that the Eagles will pick an offensive tackle early in the draft, both for depth and long term plans. But the transition would go a lot easier if Peters proves he can once again shoulder the load. On Tuesday he turned 31 years old. In football years, that's nearing the end of his prime, with or without a career-threatening injury. Tra Thomas held his own until age 34. Jon Runyan lasted until age 35. If Peters can recover from his injury and last another three or four years, that would be huge. The team could build from an (aging) position of strength rather than scramble to find a replacement. A high draft pick could get some time to apprentice or step in at guard instead. And If Herremans needs to move back inside, the instability won't be devastating.

The Eagles defense, whether it transitions to the 3-4 or not, is going to take more time to rebuild. There are too many holes to execute any kind of quick turnaround on that side of the ball. But the offense, with a little bit of Kelly magic and an offensive line rebirth, could get a head start. And that depends on Peters.

Photo from Getty.

Chip Stew: Efficient Use of Practice Time

As a fan base,  we have about seven months until Chip Kelly kicks off the new era of Eagles football. That's not a lot of time to absorb the mountain of knowledge out there about Kelly, his offensive schemes, coaching style, practices, and everything else that we might want to know before Week One rolls around. To help us on this journey, I'm starting a new running feature to highlight articles that we can add to our pool of background information: the Chip Kelly Read of the Day, code name Chip Stew.

Our first entry is a classic. The PDF "Efficient Use of Practice Time" comes straight from Kelly's mouth. It's the coach talking about his philosophy regarding practices, coaching technique, quarterback play, and more:

Statistically, 33 percent of the assistant coaches become head coaches during their career. When I took over at the University of Oregon, the first thing we had to find out was "What do we stand for?" You have to answer that in your offensive, defensive, and special team philosophies. lf you are going to stand for something, it is not what you say it is. lt is what people see in your actions. People should be able to come, observe you, and in five minutes know what you stand for.