Mayock: Kuechly a Slam-Dunk for Eagles

Les Bowen, reporting on NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock’s comments:

“(Kuechly’s) playmaking and instincts are so good, think about Sean Lee. I think that’s the best comparison for him. Sean Lee went in the second round to Dallas (from Penn State, two years ago), but has become a Pro Bowl inside linebacker, and I think this kid is very similar. He doesn’t have the knee issues Sean had, and I think he’s a slightly better athlete,” Mayock said.

“If he’s not there, I think you’ve got a little bit of a problem inside,” Mayock said. “I don’t think Don’ta Hightower, from Alabama, is worthy of the 15th pick in the draft, and I don’t think there’s any other inside linebackers worthy of that pick.”

Especially with the hard fall of Vontaze Burfict, the drumbeat for Kuechly to the Eagles gets louder by the day.

Drafting Linebackers Not Named Luke Kuechly

Tommy Lawlor:

Football has become more and more of a passing league. The emphasis on size has gone away. Teams need a SAM to be someone that can hold his ground on run plays that come at him, but that can be done by a 6’1, 240 LB. The key now is for him to be able to hang with TEs, based more on athleticism that just size. Teams are now moving TEs around so if that happens with the SAM on the field, he must be able to play more in space.

This is just the introduction to a great breakdown Tommy has over on Scouts Notebook of the best SAM linebackers in the draft. Check it out. It makes a lot of sense to address middle linebacker in free agency, perhaps with a player like Stephen Tulloch, then shore up the outside spot with an early pick of Zach Brown or Keenan Robinson.

Why DeSean Should Accept the Franchise Tag

DeSean Jackson

With Jeff McLane’s latest report suggesting that the Eagles plan to place the franchise tag on DeSean Jackson, and sources close to the wide receiver in the same report saying that Jackson “would not balk at signing the Eagles’ one-year tender,” I’m starting to wonder if this whole ugly situation might be resolved with less drama than we thought.

At its most basic, every negotiation is a game of chicken, and the Eagles-Jackson contract mini-feud is no exception. It’s all about who flinches first to prevent the worse possible outcome — a season in which the Eagles keep DeSean but he refuses to sign the franchise tender and play the 2012 season without a new long term deal.

Jackson folding first means he would just sign the franchise tag and play out the year with a guaranteed $9.5 million. The Eagles, on the other hand, could give up and trade Jackson for minimal return. Neither side wants the worst outcome, so someone has to break.

Looking at the prospects again, it seems like Jackson is in the weaker position, largely because the Eagles can legitimately pre-commit to their course of action. One of the ways to win a game of chicken — typically illustrated by two cars driving right at each other — is to pre-commit by signaling to the other driver that you have locked your steering wheel into place and cannot deviate from the collision path. Thus, if the other driver doesn’t want to end up crashing, he must flinch first.

The Eagles can’t lock their proverbial steering wheel, but their history of negotiation shows enough evidence that they won’t budge. In fact, the Eagles over the years have almost never traded a player or given him a contract extension just because he demanded it. They would rather let Terrell Owens ruin a season or let Lito Sheppard ruin his trade value than capitulate. They also have refused to accept below-market value for trades, even when a player’s public comments gave other teams leverage negotiations.

DeSean knows these things, and can’t be anxious to end up as the next Vincent Jackson circa 2010.

Plus, speaking of the Chargers wideout, this free agent wide receiver class is very good. Dwayne Bowe, Marques Colston, Stevie Johnson, and others can claim similar or higher value than DeSean.

Meanwhile, Jackson’s performance in his original walk year of 2011 left a lot to be desired. He regressed on the field and showed immaturity off it.

Given Jackson’s contract demands, high trade cost, and underachieving performance, the market for his services may not be nearly as fruitful as he might have hoped a year ago. While he may try to play out the game, perhaps even into training camp, there’s not much downside to signing a one year, $9.5 million guaranteed deal. If he can improve in 2012, there will be even more opportunities to hit it big in free agency next time around.

Photo from Getty.

In Which Danny Watkins Buys a Fire Truck

Jason Kelce reports, with photo and video evidence, that fellow Eagles offensive linemen Danny Watkins has purchased a fire truck, apparently for personal use.

On one hand, this could easily be a prank. On the other, it does seem like the rather inevitable conclusion of this and this.

Sure, Why Not?

Jason Cole, Yahoo Sports:

In addition, according to a source close to Moss, the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Jets are at least curious and the San Francisco 49ers could look to fill a hole if they let go of Josh Morgan in free agency. A source with one of those teams conveyed via text it would be “intriguing” to see what Moss has left in the tank after a year away from the game.

Agent rumor-mongering at its best. Still, Randy Moss has long been on the Andy Reid wish list, and we know Howie Roseman is a big texter. Time to double-down on mercurial, contact-fearing wide receivers!

(via Sam Lynch)

Room to Improve for LeSean McCoy as a Receiver

LeSean McCoy

LeSean McCoy had an All-World rushing season last year, racking up 1300 yards and 17 touchdowns, good enough for best in the NFL in DYAR, by far. McCoy is also a more complete player than most other backs. His pass blocking has, by all accounts, improved significantly since he entered the league. And out of the backfield, McCoy has caught 166 balls over the last three seasons — third-most among all running backs.

Despite all those catches, however, there still seems to be room for improvement in the receiving department. While McCoy has already met or surpassed his mentor’s rushing ability, Brian Westbrook was a much more natural receiver. In fact, he was probably the best wideout the Eagles had for a number of years there.

At a basic level, Westbrook averaged 8.9 yards per catch over his entire career. McCoy has only managed 7.3 yards. That’s a large difference, although it’s hard to tell exactly why McCoy is deficient in that area.

One way to get a second-level look at McCoy’s receiving stats is to look at his receptions by distance. Pro Football Focus tracks passes thrown by direction, including whether those passes were thrown behind or in front of the line of scrimmage. Here is McCoy’s receiving production by year, delineated by passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage and past it:

LeSean McCoy Receiving Statistics

For starters, McCoy has always been targeted more in the backfield. Most of those are swing passes, screen passes, and shovels. However, at least until this year, he was also turning those passes into bigger gains. There’s an interesting trend, which may or may not be significant, where McCoy’s screens have become less effective each season while his receptions on pass routes past the line of scrimmage resulted in bigger gains.

(Note that YAC, yards after catch, include yards gained behind the line of scrimmage.)

So that’s interesting. But in order to get any context for those numbers, we have to compare them to other running backs. I averaged the 2011 reception figures for five comparable backs: Darren Sproles, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, and Matt Forte.

Other Running Backs Receiving Statistics

In many ways, these backs had the opposite production of McCoy. Most of their receptions came from routes past the line of scrimmage, not screens and swing passes. They were also more effective running those real pass routes than McCoy, with an average of 10.8 yards per catch beyond the line of scrimmage.

Granted, the reason McCoy runs few wide receiver-type routes is because he’s so valuable in the backfield — even as a decoy. But that’s true about these other running backs as well.

One way McCoy can take his game to the next level would be to apply himself this offseason to becoming a better route-runner and receiver when put in motion out of the backfield. That extra element made Brian Westbrook a multidimensional threat, and McCoy would be wise to follow in his footsteps.

Photo from Getty.

Report: DeSean to be Franchised

Jeff McLane:

They will not let their Pro Bowl receiver - whose contract is set to expire - walk without getting something in return, according to NFL sources.

The franchise tag doesn’t come as a surprise, but given McLane’s general stance as mouthpiece for the Eagles front office, we can assume this comes from the top.

The Eagles still hold negotiating rights to Jackson and still have the opportunity to work out a contract extension. But unless Jackson and his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, drastically drop their asking price - believed to be in the five-year, $50 million range - that proposition is unlikely as the Eagles have typically been steadfast in negotiating.

I wonder whether McLane got that five-year, $50 million figure from the organization as well, or it’s just a guess based on Santonio Holmes’s contract.

Bowles Turned Down Raiders Coordinator Job

Jonathan Tamari:

Bowles, the only new addition to the coaching staff, took the Eagles job over offers to become the defensive coordinator in Oakland, to remain the assistant head coach/secondary coach in Miami, or take the same position in Cincinnati.

Obviously, we’re taking new secondary coach Todd Bowles at his word here, but it’s surprising to say the least. Perhaps Bowles thought that his input would actually have a bigger impact working “under” Juan Castillo rather than defensive-minded Raiders head coach Dennis Allen.