Is the Wide Nine to Blame for Poor Run Defense?

Since I’m worried that these may be some of the Eagles final days with Jim Washburn as defensive line coach, now is as good a time as any to analyze his impact on the defensive line. A few days ago I showed how Washburn formed an elite pass rush.

Today, let’s look at the run defense.

During the season the Wide Nine technique was often scapegoated for poor run defense. While no one doubted that the Eagles linebackers were awful, many also alleged that Washburn’s scheming put too much pressure on those overmatched LBs.

To that end, it’s worth examining the defensive line to see how much it contributed to the problem, if at all.

Football Outsiders numbers suggest that, if anything, the line was the only thing working correctly against the run. While they place the Eagles squarely in the middle of the league on adjusted line yards, the defensive line was third-best in the NFL at both power success (denying short yardage runs) and stuffed percentage (runs stopped behind the line of scrimmage). The bigger problems appeared in second level and open field yards, which are generally the responsibility of the linebackers and safeties.

But let’s look more specifically, player by player. Pro Football Focus has the numbers there:

At defensive end, I don’t see much cause for blaming Washburn. Both Trent Cole and Darryl Tapp improved on their tackle and stop percentages in 2011. Juqua Parker dropped off, but there’s little reason to think that was because of the Wide Nine.

Jason Babin does come out looking pretty bad here. Among defensive ends with at least 25 percent of their team’s run snaps, Babin ranked near the bottom — 51st — in stop rate. Unlike Cole, Babin isn’t a complete player. But if he can continue to put up big sack numbers, it won’t really matter.

The two main holdovers from 2010, Mike Patterson and Trevor Laws, both improved against the run last year. Broderick Bunkley helped Denver reach the second round of the playoffs, but the additions of Derek Landri and Cullen Jenkins more than made up for that loss.

Overall, I just don’t see any merit to the arguments that blame poor run defense in Jim Washburn and the front four. All signs point to the putrid tacklers playing behind them, not the line itself.

The Never-Ending Coaching Search

It was a year ago this week that Andy Reid fired Sean McDermott and kicked off a league-wide search that culminated in the underwhelming and, frankly, absurd promotion of Juan Castillo to defensive coordinator. One year later, the Eagles are supposedly conducting another search, but signs increasingly point to this one being bungled as well.

While Reid seems reluctant to demote or fire Castillo until his replacement is ready to go, obvious front runner Steve Spagnuolo is already interviewing with other teams. Meanwhile, Marty Mornhinweg has resumed interviews for his second head coaching opportunity, with Indianapolis a potential fit. Within a week, the Eagles could easily see both their current offensive coordinator and best prospective defensive coordinator slip through their fingers.

It’s unclear where that would leave the Eagles. Is there a Plan B on defense that doesn’t involve retaining Castillo? Or would they switch him over to a job he is equally unqualified for — offensive coordinator? Maybe long time wide receivers coach David Culley, who’s never gotten any interest from other teams, is ready to take over on offense, or maybe Reid could convince Brad Childress to return, but neither of those are slam dunk hires either.

Going into the offseason, the plan to turn around this team wasn’t rocket science. Step one: hire a better, more experienced defensive coordinator. Step two: draft/sign some linebackers. Step three: help Michael Vick get back in track. In recent days, with the mismanaged wooing of Spagnuolo, the departure of college scouting head Ryan Grigson, and the potential loss of Mornhinweg, the Eagles may have suffered setbacks to all three goals.

Perhaps this speculation is too early. Many of these things are still up in the air, and could land in the Eagles favor before long. But if the worst does come to pass, I wonder how resilient and resourceful Reid can be. He outright failed a year ago when he fell back to Castillo. Here’s hoping he can do better the second time around.

Photo from Getty.

An Eagles Pass Rush Worth Keeping

With the bottle still spinning in the Eagles presumed search for a new defensive coordinator, the fate of defensive line coach Jim Washburn is up in the air. Will Steve Spagnuolo, the free agent front runner, see working with Washburn, or are the tactical and personality differences too great to overcome?

All I know is, it would be an absolute shame if Spagnuolo or any other new coordinator failed to incorporate Washburn into his scheme. The numbers bear out what an amazing job Washburn did with the Eagles defensive line, turning it into the best pass rushing front four in the whole NFL.

Pro Football Focus has a great statistic on this, Pass Rushing Productivity (PRP). The stat measures the percentage of pass rushes in which players record a sack, hit, or hurry (weighted 75 percent for the latter two).

Here’s what PRP had for the Eagles defensive ends in 2010, with Jason Babin’s year in Tennessee included for reference. “25% Rank” is the player’s standing next to all other pass rushers with at least 25 percent of their team’s defensive snaps.

As you can see, the Eagles defensive line was very effective under Sean McDermott. Darryl Tapp was the worst regular contributor, and he ranked 29th among all defensive ends. Trent Cole led the league in hurries and Brandon Graham showed promise before his knee injury.

But what about 2011:

There were a number of changes. For starters, even without Graham, substitutions were up. Cole was in on over 100 fewer passing plays. Also, the zone coverage attempts by defensive ends that marked 5-10 percent of plays in 2010 were largely eliminated.

The result of these changes and the new Wide Nine technique was an across the board jump in pressure from the ends. Cole moved up to number one in the NFL, Babin improved on his Titans production, and Darryl Tapp — still the laggard — brought up the rear at 10th best in the league. Moreover, even the back ups scored highly in limited snaps.

That is a remarkable improvement. To be complete, let’s also check the defensive tackles’ pass rushing:

Broderick Bunkley had the highest PRP among Eagles defensive tackles in 2010. In 2011, the Eagles had three (almost four) who scored higher than Bunkley. That says pretty much everything that needs to be said there.

All the numbers above are interesting, and you can pull out other nuggets in the comments (such as Hunt’s efficiency or Laws’s ineffectiveness), but overall this tells a clear story about the positive impact Jim Washburn has had on this defensive line.

I’m optimistic that a good coordinator can adapt to Washburn’s strengths, but I fear that whoever the Eagles bring in will be too stubborn to do so. Cross your fingers.

Photo from Getty.

Spagnuolo to Eagles Not a Sure Thing

Les Bowen lays out all the reasons not to assume Steve Spagnuolo is already on his way to Philly. Spags taking his time to “see what develops” isn’t proof either way, but I do think there’s a sizable chance that one of the other contenders without a defensive coordinator could offer him a more attractive opportunity, and perhaps more money. Whatever negotiations are going on behind the scenes, all of his (agent’s) comments suggest that Spags is definitely playing the market.

Best Case Scenario

Spags to Philly, Juan to Minnesota. I don’t have any faith that this will actually happen, but Andy Reid managed to find a nice landing spot for Sean McDermott, too.

(via Jason Hutt)

League Source Weighs in on Losing Grigson

Les Bowen:

A league source who has dealt with Grigson called his departure “a big loss to the Eagles.” He said Grigson was a “low-ego guy” who was “very bright” and could recite a scouting report on a player off the top of his head.

Tom Heckert really liked Ryan Grigson.

This Indecision's Bugging Me

Philly.com has the results up from their annual “Stay or Go” online voting feature, and there are some interesting findings. The highlights:

• DeSean Jackson lost a lot of support since last year’s version, but not nearly as much as fellow starter Asante Samuel. Jackson dropped from 90 to 73 percent approval, while Samuel tanked from 87 to only 39 percent. Asante was the only year-over-year starter to go from positive to negative fan support.

• Other major losers included Jamaal Jackson, Brandon Graham, Juqua Parker, Trevor Laws, Moise Fokou, and Nate Allen.

• Meanwhile, Joselio Hanson, Jason Peters, Clay Harbor, and Mike Patterson all jumped at least 20 percent.

• Howie Roseman, once synonymous with Joe Banner, is officially the most hated man in the NovaCare offices. Just under 20 percent of responders want him to stay in Philly.

To the Haters

Public discourse today suffers from a startling number of self-proclaimed victims. Everybody has a viewpoint, and whatever view that is, each person thinks it’s an endangered minority opinion.

Let’s take the unsurprising example of Eagles coverage. If you have a positive outlook in the team, you probably feel hemmed in by the negativity demonstrated on the radio and in newsprint. On the other hand, a negative observer reading pro-Eagles coverage in the national news or seeing a positive spin coming from the front office feels the need to shout their views from every possible rooftop and unfilled Philly.com comment box.

Mostly this kind of rhetoric passes in the night and we all go about our business. The problem comes when everyone’s a paranoid victim, lumping analysts together with partisans, treating reasonable arguments as opportunities to accuse rational folks of unfair bias.

Lets just put it out there: sometimes the facts have a decidedly anti-Eagles bias. Sometimes it’s the opposite.

You can choose to trust the people who always agree with your natural tendencies toward positive spin or pessimist judgments. That’s your right. But then, don’t expect to be happy here.

I’m not going to cater to anyone’s opinion other than my own, nor am I going to neuter my conclusions to preserve a fake semblance of objectivity. 

Feel free to debate with me, that’s healthy and important, but don’t complain about some perceived bias.

When I look at the evidence and think it warrants a Super Bowl outlook, I’ll tell you. When the data says the Eagles are flailing, I’ll tell you that too. I’m often wrong, and sometimes right, but either way I’ll do my best to sift through the chaff and tell you what I think is important.

If that’s not the type of commentary you value, the door is only one click away. And for the rest, I’m happy to welcome you to this humble corner of the Internet.

Photo from Getty.