By the Numbers: Unsatisfying Victory

I’ve never been less enthused about an Eagles win in the Meadowlands. Hope that doesn’t harsh your mellow, but this terrible season and the race-to-the-bottom game last night didn’t really cheer me up.

Let’s look at the numbers:

0 = Giants red zone opportunities. How do you solve a massive red zone defense problem? Don’t let the Giants inside the 20!

3 = Interceptions by Vince Young. The Eagles backup was alternatively efficient and mistake-prone. He helped convert more than half of the Eagles third down opportunities and threw for two touchdowns in a game where the Giants largely contained LeSean McCoy. When Young is on his game, you wonder why he isn’t an All-Pro. But those turnovers, yikes.

12 = Passes targeted at Riley Cooper. Sunday night was our first extended look at Cooper and Young looked to him early and often. DeSean Jackson had a rebound day, but after him, Cooper was clearly Young’s favorite target. The largest wideout the Eagles have by far, Cooper could fill a fade-catching niche for the offense. But I’m not convinced after one game. It would be nice to see him get more snaps as the season conintues so we can evaluate his receiving skills going forward.

128 = Receiving yards by Victor Cruz. I hoped that Nnamdi Asomugha would redeem himself against the Giants and Cruz, showing that his early season troubles were mostly the result of learning a new system and trying to fit into Juan Castillo’s questionable coverages. Then we all saw that touchdown catch by Cruz, where Asomugha completely lost him in the end zone. $60 million? Not even close to worth it right now.

10 = Official quarterback hits on Eli Manning. The Eagles defensive line looked energized after a few down weeks. The Giants have one of the worst run blocking lines in the NFL, so it was good to see Jim Washburn’s group shut that down. But the pressure on Manning was a nice bonus.

50 = Receiving yards left on the table by DeSean Jackson due to a taunting penalty. I don’t really know where to start with Jackson. The taunting penalty seemed unfair considering its dead-ball-foul nature, but ultimately it’s DeSean’s responsibility. And after he missed last week’s game, you’d think he’d play with some maturity and humility. I guess not. At this point I am increasingly sure that he won’t be in Philadelphia next season.

Photo from Getty.

Dream Team?

Would have thought they’d stay away from that metaphor.

Week Eleven
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
8:15 pm ET on NBC

How the Cardinals Exploited the Eagles Defense

I didn’t set out to determine what happened in last Sunday’s fourth quarter collapse. Instead, I only wanted to know how the Eagles attempted to cover Larry Fitzgerald during the entire game. The subsequent conclusion only came by accident.

I re-watched every Cardinals offensive play and recorded where Fitzgerald lined up, the Eagles player who matched up across from him, the result of the play, and my best assessment of the coverage scheme. My full notes can be found in this Google spreadsheet.

Let’s start by looking at Fitzgerald and the Eagles through the first three quarters. Here’s what I complied starting with where the receiver lined up, who covered him and how, and the results of passes targeted at him.

1st-3rd Quarters (52 plays)
Slot (6)
(3) DRC press, 1-1, 42 yards
(2) Hanson off, 0-0
(1) Coleman off, 0-0

Flanker/Split End - Right (24)
(19) Samuel off, 1-3, 12 yards, 1 TD, 1 int — Mostly zone, zone blitz
(4) Samuel press, 0-0

Flanker/Split End - Left (24)
(16) Asomugha press, 0-1 — Mostly man to man
(6) Asomugha off, 1-1, 15 yards (called back, off. holding)
(1) DRC press, 0-0

For starters, we see that Fitzgerald lined up wide on both sides of the formation equally, 24 plays each, with 6 slot appearances thrown into the mix. When Fitzgerald was in the slot, he received a mixed bag of coverage and caught one big pass against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (didn’t help that Kurt Coleman missed a tackle). Against Asante Samuel on the right side, Fitzgerald mostly encountered zone coverage between Samuel and Jaiquawn Jarrett. Finally, on the left, Nnamdi Asomugha largely played man-to-man press coverage.

Overall, Juan Castillo’s secondary did well against Fitzgerald through three quarters. They limited his targets to only 6 in 52 plays and only 2 official receptions. The touchdown came when Fitzgerald cut inside against the zone and split two linebackers.

So what happened in the fourth quarter?

4th Quarter (21 plays)
Slot (5)
(2) Asomugha off, 0-0
(1) DRC press, 0-0
(1) Hanson off, 1-1, 11 yards
(1) Coleman off, 0-0

Flanker/Split End - Right (8)
(7) Samuel off, 4-6, 83 yards, 1 TD
(1) Hanson press, 0-0

Flanker/Split End - Left (8)
(7) Asomugha press, 0-1
(1) Asomugha off, 0-0

Fitzgerald took a few extra snaps in the slot, which Castillo partially countered by assigning Asomguha to a couple of those plays. Yet again Fitzgerald split his time equally on both sides. The big difference came in the number of targets and completions against Samuel in zone coverage on the right side.

John Skelton only targeted Fitzgerald 6 times total through the first three quarters. That pattern continued in the fourth quarter in all but one formation. Skelton threw to his big target 6 times just in the final quarter against Samuel.

That wouldn’t be a big deal except that he also completed 4 of those passes for 83 yards and one touchdown, including the biggest play of the game, when Samuel let his man go and Jarrett got beat deep, leading to the game-winning touchdown.

There’s blame enough for all. Samuel certainly didn’t play at a Pro Bowl level and Jarrett looked like a rookie making his first start. But the most damning thing is how predictable the defense looked in each formation. By the time the fourth quarter arrived, the Cardinals knew exactly the type of match up they’d have on Fitzgerald in each position, and they exploited that by attacking the Eagles tandem on the right side for the final 15 minutes.

On that game-changing pass, for example, the Cardinals knew that if they stuck Fitzgerald on the right side, chances were he’d be in zone coverage with Samuel on the outside and Jarrett deep. A crossing route underneath to woo Asante, a double move to fool the rookie, and the Cardinals won the game.

That’s how you lose five fourth quarter leads.

Photo from Getty.

The Great Andy Reid Debate

This season is over. Most reasonable Eagles fans understand this. The only thing left is to discuss whether or not Andy Reid must go. Thus, I searched the interwebs and Twitter for a smart, rational opponent to debate. Justin F. (follow him here) has been that and more. Read our back-and-forth exchange below.

Brian #1:   Let me start by saying that I’m not one of these people who has been calling in to WIP for years, yelling about how Andy Reid can’t win it all. He’s been remarkably successful over the last 13 years, and I both recognize and appreciate that. But after this crap-tastic season, I don’t see how Reid can keep his job any longer.

There are a few reasons, but let’s put the obvious one out there first. After failing with his first post-JJ defensive coordinator pick, Andy had plenty of time to find a suitable replacement. Yet instead of going for one of the many qualified candidates out there, he promoted his offensive line coach. The choice made no sense at the time and I don’t think I’m exaggerating when in retrospect it looks like one of the worst coordinator hires in modern NFL history. It’s one thing to make make a bad hire based on reasonable expectations (McDermott). But no team should retain management that makes such an incomprehensible, season-destroying move.

Justin #1:   Juan Castillo was a confusing decision to say the least. Now, we do not have the benefit of knowing exactly what the Eagles knew during the time of the interviews or what they saw in his 12 years as offensive line coach. They said he was always working with the defense, though I guess you can only take that at face value.  Without a doubt, the Juan Castillo hiring was a mistake. All you need to do is watch the Cardinals’ game-winning drive to see confirmation of that one. With Nnamdi Asomugha and Asante Samuel both on the field, Juan Castillo decided it would be a good idea to put Jaiquawn Jarrett one-on-one on Larry Fitzgerald.

That being said, it is a very rare occasion that one fires a coordinator (offensive or defense) in the middle of the season, no matter how bad a job he is doing. If Castillo remains as defensive coordinator next season, then Reid will have more than a few questions to answer. Castillo was a mistake, but I am not of the belief that a coach should be fired for a single mistake, no matter how bad it is, especially a coach as successful as Andy Reid has been in his tenure at Philadelphia. It is a mistake that can be fixed in the off-season and the Eagles can go from there. Again though, I am going off the assumption that Reid will have the good taste not to bring Castillo back as Defensive Coordinator in 2012.

Brian #2:   Not all mistakes are equal. Choosing Castillo as your coordinator for an “all-in” season is a worse than pretty much any other football-related personnel decision I can think of.

But even putting Juan aside, there are other reasons to end Reid’s tenure after this disastrous season. To allow a hodgepodge of young, untested, low-round picks man the linebacker corps was almost as unthinkable as promoting Castillo. Reid shares the blame with Howie Roseman, but he has enough clout to demand better. And it’s Reid’s ultimate responsibility to put his players “in the best position to win.” That’s often just a cliché he uses to admirably deflect blame from others, but these days it’s true. When your top two wide receivers are out, your quarterback is struggling, your running back is all-pro, and you have the lead, the answer is obviously not, “Let’s keep throwing.” At some point you have to hold Andy responsible for coaching decisions that have crippled the team’s ability to win.

Justin #2:   The way the Eagles structured their contracts, I do not see them as going all in this year. They will still have cap flexibility heading into the off-season and if things continue going in the way they are going, a lot of good draft picks to build upon.

While Andy Reid has not drafted a linebacker with a top pick, sometimes the late round picks turn out to be great bargains. Jeremiah Trotter was a 3rd round pick, for instance.  The Casey Matthews draft pick has been somewhat controversial among Eagles fans, most of whom have completely given up on him now. The mistake made there was he should have started on special teams at first instead of the Week 1 middle linebacker, not in picking him in the 4th round. Reid certainly called better games in his career than the game he called last Sunday in Arizona, however, he has not ignored the run completely this season. LeSean McCoy had 30 carries for 185 yards in the game against Dallas.  But as several studies have shown, overall teams do not win because they run the ball a lot, they run the ball a lot because they are winning. A 2007 study by Advanced NFL Stats concluded that passing the ball is much more important to winning than running the ball. To get back to Reid, though, I am under no pretense that he is perfect and has not made mistakes, even very stupid ones (cough cough Castillo), but under his guidance, the Eagles have been atop the NFC as consistently as one can possibly be in the past decade. Those that expect a coach to not occasionally head-scratching mistake will be bitterly disappointed as long as humans coach football. There will be down years (2005, 2007), and barring a miraculous turn around this will be one of them, but I still see Reid as a net positive for the Eagles.

Brian #3:   I’m not stuck in a backward view of the NFL. This is a passing league. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t times when it’s important to run the ball. It seemed like Reid had finally acquiesced to that view in those previous games, but the ratio on Sunday was unforgivable given the circumstances.

This consistency argument is ultimately what it comes down to. I held that view for years, and assumed that just keeping competitive would result in a random Super Bowl win. But I don’t believe that anymore. Long term, I just can’t look at this team and see any improvement over the last six seasons. Reid was at his best building the Eagles up from ‘99 to 2004, and it culminated in one Super Bowl appearance. 2005 was a lost year, but since then Reid hasn’t made any progress. The Eagles frequently reach the playoffs. The problem isn’t that Reid “can’t win the big one,” but rather that none of these teams been serious Super Bowl contenders. 

Considering this lack of progress, and the multiple huge management blunders that derailed this season, it’s time to hit the reset button.

Justin #3:   If Andy had known Vick had gotten hurt early in the game (which allegedly he did not know), I think you would have seen a lot more of LeSean McCoy than we actually did.

Just keeping competitive will result in a random Super Bowl win. Eventually.  Since 2005, the only year the Eagles missed the playoffs was 2007. You do not need to be a great team to win a Super Bowl, and conversely not all great teams do win the Super Bowl. Super Bowl XLII is a perfect example of this. Patriots had one of the most dominant seasons any team has ever had, and the Giants were 10-6 with nobody claiming they deserved a better fate. The Giants got the 5-seed, won on the road 3 times in the NFC Playoffs and won the Super Bowl. Not because they suddenly became a better team than the best NFL team of the past decade, but there is a degree of random chance in the NFL Playoffs. Again I go back to the Super Bowl XLII winning Giants. For goodness sake, David Tyree. Tyree was practically a nobody before that game, and now he is retired. Any team that qualifies for the playoffs is a serious Super Bowl contender. The year following the Giants Super Bowl win, everyone guffawed at the Arizona Cardinals in the playoffs. The question surrounding their opening playoff game against Atlanta was how much would the Falcons beat them by.  

While this is a down year for the Eagles, part of it due to poor chance (Falcons game being a prime example) and partly due to poor play (Cardinals game) and a huge defensive coordinator blunder (hiring Castillo), Andy Reid has exhibited the consistency needed from an NFL team to win the Super Bowl. Even though expectations were high this year (ohai, Vince Young) and they have fallen short of them, the appropriate response is not to blow up the coaching staff and fire Andy. Rather, the Eagles would be well served to get a new coordinator next year, be as wise as possible with their likely high 1st round pick and 2 high 2nd round picks, make smart free agent signings, and come out firing with Andy Reid at the helm for the 2012 NFL season.

What do you think?

Time to Cage LeSean McCoy

A month ago I wrote that the Eagles needed to unleash LeSean McCoy. Amazingly, over the two games that followed, Andy Reid did just that.

Reid and Marty Mornhinweg let McCoy carry the ball 58 times in weeks six and eight. He rewarded them with 311 rushing yards, three touchdowns, and — most important — two victories. None of that was meant to last, of course.

In the last two weeks McCoy has only seen the ball 30 times total, a reversion to the subpar. And, surprise, the Eagles lost both games.

The logical answer would be to again exhort Reid to put the game on McCoy’s shoulders. He still provides the Eagles with the best chance to win and, after all, it worked the first time.

But sitting at 3-6 with seven games left, the Eagles don’t need wins any more. There’s nothing left to win. The 2011 season is already over.

Instead of giving the ball to McCoy, I suggest the Eagles coaches continue to do what they do best: protect their running back by absurdly limiting his carries. With a contract extension, McCoy hopefully will be a centerpiece of the Eagles offense for at least the next five years. His talents will be important to reviving the team’s hopes in 2012.

So why risk serious injury over these last few meaningless contests? Let Dion Lewis carry the ball and gain experience. See if he can be an adequate back up going forward. And, while you’re at it, don’t worry about rushing Michael Vick back from his broken ribs. Vick needs to iron out his accuracy issues, but maybe some rest on the bench would do him some good.

There are some other positions where it would be nice to rest a player or give a younger guy a shot during this extended 2012 preseason tryout. Brandon Graham could use more action, and Curtis Marsh should get a chance to prove he was worth a third round pick.

But there’s no one I want bubble-wrapped more than McCoy, and the Eagles coaches have been plenty willing to protect him when the games counted. It would be a shame to change course and wear him out now, to no positive end.

Photo from Getty.

By the Numbers: What an Embarrassment

There were a number of awful parts to the latest Eagles debacle. But by far the worst, to my mind, was the utterly embarrassing play of Michael Vick.

Eagles fans are used to Andy Reid refusing to run the ball. They are used to seeing a wide receiver corps that consists of a bunch of 3rd stringers. At this point, the inability of the back seven to provide any deterrence in coverage or protect yet another fourth quarter lead is commonplace and expected.

Vick had his legs yesterday, and made some typically great scrambles. But his passing was atrocious on a number of levels. Certainly the defense deserves a lot of blame today, but a $100 million quarterback cannot be outplayed by John Skelton. That’s inexcusable.

47.1% = Michael Vick’s completion percentage. That was the second-most inaccurate performance Vick has had since he returned to the NFL, and it contributed to his worst quarterback rating since 2006. I know he was missing his two favorite targets, but I’m not sure they would have helped much. Vick kept making terrible decisions, throwing into double coverage more than once. Truthfully, he’s lucky to only have two interceptions.

6 = LeSean McCoy carries in the second half. The second half playcalling was perhaps the worst by Marty Mornhinweg since he assumed those duties in 2006. Vick was having a poor day and was missing both Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. McCoy was his typical self, running at a 5.8 yard per carry average — much higher than Vick’s 3.8 passing yards per attempt. And yet, with a touchdown lead, the solution was to pass?

8 = Punts by Chas Henry. He only had 20 total through the first 8 games.

3/4 = Cardinals red zone touchdown efficiency. Same as last week.

146 = Receiving yards for Larry Fitzgerald. When Fitzgerald lined up against Nnamdi Asomugha last year against Oakland, the cornerback held him to only 2 receptions for 26 yards. This year, whatever Juan Castillo’s plan was, it didn’t involve copying that successful formula. Both Asomugha and Asante Samuel had key interceptions, but Skelton continued to find Fitzgerald in mismatches against linebackers and even rookie safety Jaiquawn Jarrett.

30th = Cardinals’ Football Outsiders DVOA rank prior to this week. They are a bad team. And they didn’t even have their starting quarterback. So what does that tell us about the Eagles? They are truly disgraceful.

Photo from Getty.

Deceptive Moves, Deceptive Speed

Those are Cardinals?

Week Ten
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 pm ET on FOX

PS: I’ll be in the press box, so follow along @Brian_Solomon for real-time updates.

Fundamentally Sound

“First of all, what we’re going to do is be fast and physical, and we’re going to be fundamentally sound. We have good players here. This is the NFL, you change, you upgrade, players get hurt, but that’s what we’re going to do.”

Nodding…

(Data from Pro Football Focus)