The Real Problem

Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie Nnamdi Asomugha

New coaches often talk about having players “buy in” to the team they are trying to build. Players have to believe that the system they are contributing to is worth personal sacrifice. They have to be accountable to their actions and understand that the play of one man affects the whole. They have to trust each other, and they have to trust their coach.

Buying in is not close to sufficient to win football games, but it does seem to be necessary. To my untrained eyes, many players have not bought in to the greater whole at NovaCare — mainly on defense.

Lets look at a test case: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. DRC came to Philadelphia this offseason as a young, talented player needing a home. Arizona was apparently not the right place for him, maybe this would be. But what does he see when he walks in the door?

Rodgers-Cromartie is almost immediately demoted to nickel back. He’s asked to play in the slot, a position he’s never had to handle. Who’s telling him to make this unwanted change? An offensive line coach whose promotion his new teammates have already questioned.

Not only is Rodgers-Cromartie playing a new position, but he’s doing so in an unclear system that’s fundamentally unsound in the back seven. He has linebackers next to him and safeties behind him who don’t seem up to the task and are being swapped in and out constantly, to little effect. Every linebacker and defensive back has either been benched or has had their position adjusted. And none of it has worked.

In short, Rodgers-Cromartie has about a dozen different excuses he can use to explain away his poor play and obvious lack of effort. There’s no accountability from the top, because Juan Castillo hasn’t earned that respect. There’s no accountability among the players, where the best and longest-tenured player among the secondary demonstrates a notorious I-know-best attitude — and he might be right.

We saw Sean McDermott slowly lose the players during his two year stint as coordinator. But most of the malcontents were fringe players like Chris Clemons. Quintin Mikell and Stewart Bradley, who may not have always been the best players on the field, were leaders in the locker room who publicly and consistently bought in to the message from above.

The Eagles let go of veteran players that could establish continuity and trust in the locker room. They brought in a host of new, highly compensated free agents from different systems. They promoted a coach whose strategies and solutions were suspect, at best. And then they started losing.

I keep repeating that this team has many problems, but is still more talented than the one that won 10 games last year. It’s true. The whole is much less than the sum of its parts. Until that attitude is fixed, it doesn’t matter whether it’s Rodgers-Cromartie or Jamar Chaney missing a tackle. Nothing will change.

Photo from Getty.

By the Numbers: Season Over

Eagles Bears

The Eagles are indisputably less than the sum of their parts. Not that those parts on their own are all great, but any team with this type of talent should be better than that.

That’s coaching.

35% = Completion percentage on passes to Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. Brent Celek was the Eagles leading receiver for the second straight week. On one hand, it’s a welcome change to see Celek finally becoming an offensive weapon again. But Celek’s emergence has come in part because defenses have largely shut down the Eagles best receiving threats. Last week that wasn’t a problem, but it’s tough when your top two wideouts only get the ball six times total.

0 = Sacks and hits on Jay Cutler. Jim Washburn’s pass rush has been stellar for most of the season, but it didn’t show up last night. The Bears came into the game ranked 27th in adjusted sack rate. Everyone expected the Eagles defense to get pressure on Cutler, but it didn’t happen.

2 = Bears Pro Bowl linebackers. It’s amazing what some competent linebacker play can do.

3/4 = Bears red zone touchdown efficiency. You can’t win if you don’t do better in the red zone. The Eagles defense was worst in the league last year in the red zone, and Sean McDermott was shown the door. The team is just as bad this year.

133 = Rushing yards by Matt Forte. Same old, same old. The Eagles won two games, and people pushed  the problems we had seen for weeks to the back of the bandwagon bus. But they never went away.

1/2 = Eagles red zone touchdown efficiency. The offense right now is like a thoroughbred with asthma. You can see the potential, especially when Michael Vick does something no other quarterback can do, or when LeSean McCoy and Jason Peters tag team the defense. But at the end of the day they just can’t keep those moments coming. You know an untimely interception or a dropped pass is just waiting to sideline them again.

3-5 = Eagles record through eight games.

Photo from Getty.

Must Win on Monday Night

Michael Vick Chicago Bears

“If the Bears prevail, nobody is going to write that the Eagles’ season is over,” says Les Bowen.

Not so sure about that. I might.

Lets take a look at the Eagles’ playoff chances. Football Outsiders’ odds prior to this weekend gave them a 34 percent chance of making the postseason. The team was slightly more likely to win the division than the wild card, a result of a rather weak division.

But the Giants’ win over the Patriots last night put them a few lengths ahead of the rest of NFC East field. The Cowboys also won, meaning the Eagles — if they lost tonight — would be behind the leader by three games and the second-place team by a game. That scenario is not pretty.

And a loss to the Bears puts the Eagles further behind in the wild card standings as well. The Lions are way ahead at 6-2. The Eagles, at 3-5, would be two games down to both Chicago and Atlanta, both of whom would also have head-to-head victories against Philadelphia. They’d also be a game back of Tampa Bay and the Cowboys.

To make the playoffs with 8 games left, the Eagles would have to go 7-1 the rest of the way and still get lucky, hoping that five out of the six teams ahead of them flop. Sure, there would be a token chance. But at that point, you’re really just playing for pride and Andy Reid’s future.

Demolishing the Cowboys last week was a necessary step, and it showed that there’s still a chance the Eagles could close out the season with a big winning streak. But the margin for error is razor-thin, especially against another team in the wild card hunt.

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Measuring the Jim Washburn Effect

Trent Cole Mike Patterson Cullen Jenkins Sack

Yesterday, I detailed how Jim Washburn’s coaching resurrected Jason Babin’s career and turned him into a sack machine. But what about other players? How is Washburn and the wide nine formation treating veteran Eagles defensive linemen?

That’s the question I set out to answer, using Pro Football Focus’s great stats. Below is a table calculated based on snap counts and pressure data compiled in 2010 and 2011 for Eagles linemen who have played in both Washburn’s system and Sean McDermott’s.

Jim Washburn Philadelphia Eagles DLThe first column shows change (Δ) in frequency of pass rushes per snap the player is in the game. There are some interesting trends there alone.

Mike Patterson used to be a largely first and second down defensive tackle, but he’s now getting the chance to rush the passer more. The opposite appears to be true for Trevor Laws. Meanwhile, Washburn has smartly eliminated Trent Cole’s occasional coverage responsibilities in 2010.

So, once these players are going for the quarterback, how are they doing? There are clearly some winners and some losers.

Patterson, Cole, and Darryl Tapp are all way up in total pressure per rush (sacks, hits, pressures). Antonio Dixon was too, before his season-ending injury. Juqua Parker seemed like he’d be a good fit for Washburn’s scheme, especially because Babin’s addition would keep him fresh. But that hasn’t happened at all. As for Laws, the numbers don’t match up with my anecdotal memory of his solid performance.

Overall, it’s clear that Washburn and the addition of successful free agents is having a big, positive effect on the Eagles pass rushers. You probably already knew that, but now at least you have the stats to back it up.

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Jason Babin, From Scrap Yard to Sack Yards

Jason Babin Eagles Sack Celebration

Jason Babin is just a hair off the pace to tie Reggie White’s record for most single-season sacks (21) as an Eagle. That’s crazy, especially because it was less than two years ago that the career journeyman was kicked to the street by the same Eagles team he now stars on.

I would say that the 31-year-old’s career was revived in Tennessee, but that would be inaccurate. “Revived” suggests that he returned to a former glory, one that never existed. At age 30, Babin signed a one year deal with the Titans. It was his fifth team in six seasons. After the Texans drafted him in the 1st round and immediately slotted him into the lineup, Babin only started 10 games over the next five years.

And then came Jim Washburn. Below are the sacks per pass rush and total pressure (sacks + hits + pressures) per pass rush stats, courtesy of Pro Football Focus:

Jason Babin Stats

What a huge jump from 2009 to 2010. Babin got pressure and sacks 50 percent more in the wide nine formation than he did the previous season in Sean McDermott’s more typical 4-3 scheme. And that’s despite more playing time on run downs.

I was worried that Babin’s 2010 performance was a fluke, but his numbers have only gone up since returning to Philadelphia. His overall pressure per rush figure is similar, but he’s actually getting more sacks — another 50 percent bump. Maybe that’s luck, but maybe not. Considering his only two games without sacks came while Trent Cole was injured, it isn’t much of a leap to suggest that his opportunities are increasing with a fellow Pro Bowler coming at the quarterback.

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Why Did the Cowboys' Defensive Plan Fail?

Michael Vick Cowboys

After the Redskins game, I noted that despite losing, Washington successfully exploited a weakness in Michael Vick’s game by blitzing him on almost every third down and goal line situation. Naturally, I expected Rob Ryan’s physical Cowboys defense to pursue a similar strategy.

In some ways Dallas did mold their initial game plan around this strategy. Ryan often blitzed an extra defender off the edge, and sometimes succeeded in getting pressure and forcing Vick to make poor decisions. For example, they sacked Vick this way on the Eagles first play from scrimmage. He was also slightly less effective the whole night when the Cowboys brought at least one blitzer (all four sacks, yards per attempt down about one yard, completion percentage down over 20 percent).

However, there are a few reasons why Ryan’s strategy failed to pay off against the Eagles offense.

For starters, LeSean McCoy. The Eagles running back is such an elite force that you have to respect him in your defensive scheme. A couple of times Dallas brought extra rushers but were burned when McCoy broke through the line and already reached the third level of defenders. When Andy Reid actually commits to the run the way he’s done the last two weeks, it becomes more difficult to focus solely on Vick.

Second, when Dallas did blitz they did so without general awareness. One of the keys to blitzing against Vick is that you have to keep containment. Frequently, Cowboys were streaking up the field, leaving wide lanes for Vick to take advantage of with his legs. Reid and Marty Mornhinweg also dialed up a bunch of different screen passes that seemed to take the Dallas defenders by surprise. If you’re going to blitz the Eagles, at least be prepared for that possibility.

Finally, Ryan didn’t copy the Redskins’ model exactly. He generally blitzed an additional defender or two, not resorting to zero coverage. And when they didn’t blitz, Dallas dropped their safeties way back, exposing chunks of the middle of the field that the linebackers needed to cover. The Cowboys linebackers were not up to that task. It was an amazing Casey Matthews-esque performance from that group.

I’d still expect opponents to try blitzing Vick. But those teams will have to learn from the Cowboys’ mistakes if they want to make that strategy successful against this multifaceted and explosive offense.

Photo from Getty.

31 Other Teams Didn't Have This Problem

Judy Battista, The New York Times:

Another victim of the lockout: the Philadelphia Eagles, who might have looked a lot more the way they did Sunday night if their off-season haul of free agents had been able to work together during a normal season. Instead, it has taken nearly two months for the Eagles to find the form that was expected of them.

Rob Maaddi, Associated Press:

It took time for the new guys to get acclimated and returning players also had to adjust to a new defensive coordinator and new offensive line coach without benefit of minicamps because of the lockout.

Nick Fierro, The Morning Call:

Watching how the Philadelphia Eagles pulled together vs. Dallas Sunday night, Washington two weeks earlier and the second half of the Buffalo game a week before that, it’s not hard to conclude that they’re now where they thought they’d be going into the season had they not been locked out all summer.

Also known as cognitive dissonance between this and this.