By the Numbers: Showed Me

In previewing week eight, I called the Cowboys match up a “show me” game. In other words, show me something that should give some hope that the Eagles can actually accomplish what will be an uphill battle to the playoffs.

They certainly didn’t answer all of my questions, but the 34-7 trouncing of the Dallas Cowboys was nothing if not proof that the Eagles can play at an elite level. Let’s break down the win.

7 = Number of receptions by Brent Celek, more than in the last three games combined. Jason Avant also had a big day, as Michael Vick torched the Cowboys over the middle of the field. Celek noted after the game that Dallas often lined up in deep Cover Two formations to prevent the big pass play. The formations worked, in a sense, but the Eagles picked them apart underneath those safeties.

185 = Rushing yards for LeSean McCoy on 30 attempts. Only three Eagles in history had more rushing yards than McCoy in a single game. Only three times has a running back received more rushing attempts in Andy Reid’s 12 years as head coach. McCoy is not only quickly convincing the rest of the NFL that he deserves to be included in the conversation about the best running back, but he seems to have already sold Reid. 58 carries in the last two games means Reid took my humble advice and, well, ran with it. (It also helps to have Jason Peters back.)

1 = Embarrassed coach. Rob Ryan, after the game: “I got out-coached, out-everything. It’s all on me.”

13 = Straight wins after the bye for Reid. Looked like he was one step ahead of Ryan the whole game.

100% = Eagles “Drive Success Rate.” Football Outsiders says that the Patriots have the highest rate in the league of drives with either a first down or touchdown, at 79%. The Eagles accomplished that on every drive Sunday night. The offense also converted more than half of their third down chances for the first time this season since week one.

88% = Cowboys “Drive Success Rate.” Oddly enough, the Cowboys offense also scored well against this metric. Of course, only in their final two drives did they manage to reach a third set of downs.

9.3 = Rushing yards per attempt by DeMarco Murray on 8 carries. The Eagles defense had a great day, its best against a quarterback not named Grossman. But there were still some problems that didn’t look fixed. Murray had no problem gashing the defense when he had the ball in his hands. Poor tackling was still an issue from Jamar Chaney and others. Kurt Coleman also allowed a ghastly 70 yard touchdown pass to Laurent Robinson.

Perhaps the truest thing that can be said about Sunday’s victory was that the Eagles won the way they are built to win. This team was constructed to jump out to big leads and then force the opponent to comeback against a relentless pass rush and Pro Bowl cornerbacks. Howie Roseman and Reid essentially had this performance in mind when they made all those offseason changes. We’ll see if that revived blueprint can hold going forward.

Photo from Getty.

"Trick or Treat"

Redneck Cowboys fans? Really?

Week Eight
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
8:15 pm ET on NBC

New Contracts for DeSean, LeSean Coming Soon?

There’s renewed optimism for a DeSean Jackson contract extension, at least according to Jeff McLane.

“Sources close to Jackson” told the Inquirer reporter that negotiations with the team have picked up recently. Jackson also told reporters yesterday: “Without trying to say too much, I think things will work out good here. We’re after the bye week now, so there’s a lot more time for things to get done.”

I already speculated on Jackson’s eventual contract here, and the only thing I’d change is probably revise down the total money from $60 million to closer to $50-$55 million over six seasons (given new information about Santonio Holmes’s contract). If the Eagles want to avoid a franchise tag-induced holdout next year, the time is now for an extension.

But even if that deal is coming down the pipe soon, another one looms on the horizon for LeSean McCoy. McCoy has proven this year that he’s capable of performing among the best running backs in the NFL and his contract is up after 2012. While the Eagles offense isn’t as dependent on McCoy as it once was on Brian Westbrook, they need to lock him up long term.

Here are some of the more recent contracts given out to top backs:

2011- Chris Johnson (25): 6 years, $55 million, $30 million guaranteed
2011- Adrian Peterson (26): 7 years, $96 million, $36 million guaranteed
2011- Frank Gore (28): 4 years, $26 million, $14 million guaranteed
2011- DeAngelo Williams (28): 5 years, $43 million, $21 million guaranteed
2010- Jamaal Charles (24): 6 years, $28 million, $10 million guaranteed
2009- Maurice Jones-Drew (24): 5 years, $31 million, $18 million guaranteed
2008- Steven Jackson (25): 6 years, $45 million, $21 million guaranteed
2008- Michael Turner (26): 6 years, $35 million, $15 million guaranteed

There are a lot of different situations represented here, but as with the wide receivers, we can at least determine a general ballpark for McCoy’s negotiations.

Let’s start at the top. Johnson and Peterson got otherworldly contracts that serve as nothing but the upper bound for McCoy’s talks. There’s no more chance of LeSean seeing $9 million per year or close to $30 million guaranteed than there is of DeSean sniffing Larry Fitzgerald’s $130 million deal. McCoy will probably have trouble even besting the per year contract value of Gore or Williams, since they have more years and more production to bank on.

The closest analogue to McCoy in production and age is probably Charles, whose $28 million deal looked like a bargain before he tore his ACL. If McCoy wants to wait this out and get closer to free agency, his play might continue to push his value northward. But, as Charles demonstrated this year, a running back’s career is always in danger. If LeSean can get a reasonable six year, $32 million contract with $14 million guaranteed, he should probably jump on it.

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Asante: "There’s a Power Struggle Around Here"

One day after Andy Reid put a “gag order” on his loquacious cornerback, Asante Samuel talked with reporters in the locker room and let fly his true feelings about the Eagles front office. While Samuel said he’d “go to war for Andy,” he lambasted unnamed others in the organization, presumably Joe Banner and Howie Roseman.

Samuel said that members of the front office might not want him, but only because they’re “playing fantasy football” with the owners money. He said he was happy when the Eagles acquired two other Pro Bowl corners, “but when they made the call to me and told me they were trying to trade me, that’s where it went bad.”

Samuel also noted that he didn’t think Reid, Banner, and Roseman were all on the same page. “I think there’s a power struggle around here,” he said. Eventually he came back and delivered a delicious non-apology apology.

It’s easy to make Samuel out to be the bad guy here, the one who lets down his own team by griping about his personal situation (especially when he’s making $6 million in base salary this season). But this isn’t about Asante, it’s about the front office.

Blame for the disastrous start after the summer hype is deserved all around, but most of it has been laid on Reid’s shoulders. While picking Juan Castillo to be defensive coordinator might be a fire-able offense, a significant part of this season’s troubles lies with others — a fact that hasn’t gotten nearly enough ink.

Roseman and Banner are the ones that quasi-publicly explored shipping Samuel out of town, then backed out, leaving an inevitably ugly personal conflict. They’re the ones who signed a bunch of veteran players that have made zero or negative impact (Joselio Hanson, Ronnie Brown, Vince Young, Steve Smith). They’re the ones that simultaneously gave no care to the gaping personnel hole at linebacker. They’re the ones that got such underwhelming production from the last two drafts.

And to suggest, as some commentators have, that Reid is just playing good cop to the higher-up’s bad cop is misguided. We’ve been hearing about problems in the organization regarding Roseman’s rise for a couple of years now. The defensive consultant leak spoke to a rift somewhere, and Asante isn’t the only one to point it out. Veterans held a team-only meeting before the Washington game after which they told reporters “We don’t want coach Reid gone so we have to turn it around.”

Reid issued a perfunctory denial of any split within the front office, but I have to assume he sees the writing on the wall. Unless there’s a remarkable turnaround, someone will have to be scapegoated for this season’s failure. Banner isn’t going anywhere, and the newly-installed Roseman is his man. That leaves only one person.

But such a thing might not be all bad for Andy. Who knows? He might laugh all the way to Andrew Luck in South Beach.

Photo from Getty.

Sizing Up the Dallas Cowboys

Last night, I hunkered down in the film room (read: NFL Game Rewind) and watched the last two games of the Eagles’ week eight opponent, the hated Dallas Cowboys. To be honest, I wasn’t expecting much. The team is 3-3, including three fourth quarter letdowns. Most of the press I’ve stumbled across about the division rival has been disparaging at best.

But I came away from those two games and an examination of the stats with an entirely different perspective: the Cowboys are a pretty good team.

Let me start with the objective stats from Football Outsiders. Dallas excels in a number of areas. They are third overall in team defense, and first in adjusted line yards allowed by the front seven. On offense, they’re only 30th rushing the ball, but are eighth though the air. Having the fifth-best adjusted sack rate helps, as does Tony Romo’s overall stellar play. He has had some untimely interceptions in losses to the Lions and Jets, but he’s still fourth in quarterback DVOA, the highest rate of his career. Romo’s yards per attempt and QB rating are right in line with where they were before his injury-shortened season in 2010.

Subjectively, the Cowboys looked very solid against both the Patriots and Rams in the last two weeks. St. Louis was a pushover, with A.J. Feeley starting and basically no one interested in tackling, but Dallas didn’t mess around. They had few mistakes, racked up the yards, and got a breakout rushing game for the first time this year. Dallas also played an even, closely-fought game against New England that Tom Brady pulled out with a last minute touchdown drive.

Andy Reid always wins after the bye. Always. 15-0 including in the playoffs. But this one won’t be easy. The Cowboys have all the weapons to beat the Eagles this Sunday: a solid quarterback, playmakers at wide receiver, tight end, and out of the backfield. They have a physical, blitz-happy defense.

Most games from here on out are “must win” situations for the Eagles, because they can’t afford more than two additional losses if they still want a real shot at making the playoffs. This one is more of a “show me” game. If the team really wants to give me hope that they can pull off a turnaround, a solid game against a good team like the Cowboys is where they need to start.

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The Sad Decline of Donovan McNabb

It’s been awhile since I’ve talked about Donovan McNabb.

Take a gander at the chart below. It’s an updated variant on the graphs I put together back before McNabb was traded to the Redskins.

Yuck. The last two years have not been kind to McNabb. Both in Washington last year and with the Vikings this year, he’s scored solidly at the bottom of NFL quarterbacks.

You can read the graph two different ways, although neither are positive for Donovan.

First, you can just plot a steady decline in performance since 2006. In that season he put up numbers akin to the Super Bowl year. Afterward, even through Brian Westbrook’s masterful season of 2007 and the emergence of the young guns in 2008 and 2009, McNabb could never again match those peak years.

Before he was traded there were warning signs of his decline. 2009 saw his lowest DVOA performance since 2002 and his lowest EPA since 2005. Perhaps that trend would have continued in Philadelphia.

The second understanding of the graph comes instead from the sharp dropoff in 2010. From 2007-2009 McNabb largely hovered just above average, as the 10th- to 15th-best quarterback in the league. As soon as he started in Washington, however, he plummeted to 25th-best. Every notable stat fell.

There is no doubt that the difference is large between the Eagles offense and those in Washington and Minnesota. That’s a potential excuse for McNabb, if you’re looking for one. If he came back and started with the Eagles his numbers would probably look better. But the fact that he couldn’t elevate those teams and perform at least close to he did in Philadelphia doesn’t lend to any argument in his favor. Maybe Andy Reid was propping him up.

Or maybe it’s just age catching up to McNabb. 35 is old for an NFL player. This year only Tom Brady, Matt Hasselbeck, and Kerry Collins are seeing significant playing time among quarterbacks over age 32. Since he came into the league, McNabb has gained about 20 lbs and has lost his trademark speed.

No matter the reason, it’s sad to watch.

Photo from Getty.

The Rise of the Eagles' Two Tight End Formation

Sheil Kapadia wrote a nice post last week about how the Eagles are using Brent Celek this year. Cliff notes version: he’s pass blocking more and running routes less.

But recently I’ve been noticing another trend with the Eagles tight ends — namely, more frequent use of two tight end formations with second-year man Clay Harbor. That was just my anecdotal recall though, so I checked the snap counts at Pro Football Focus.

Last year, if you exclude the Week 17 back-ups game against the Cowboys, Harbor only saw the field on 21 percent of all offensive snaps after he started playing late in the season. For the whole team in 2010, the Eagles ranked 30th in the league with only 16 percent of offensive formations including two tight ends.

This year, Harbor’s playing time has increased to 29 percent, almost exclusively when Brent Celek is still on the field. That means the Eagles are now running two tight end sets significantly more than last year. However, even more than last year, Harbor’s snaps have increasingly come on run plays. He’s a run blocker on 58 percent of his plays, compared to last year’s rate of only 48 percent.

So, what can we gather from this information? For starters, it lends to the growing sense that paying for Steve Smith as the Eagles fourth wide receiver was unnecessary. Smith has only been on the field for 12 snaps the last two weeks, while Harbor was in for 37 snaps. If the Eagles are increasingly going to two tight end formations, the fourth receiver becomes even less important.

Another player that has become marginalized with Harbor’s increased playing time is Owen Schmitt. Last year, Schmitt blocked on 45 percent of run plays, but his performance was subpar. This season, his blocking has dropped to 19 percent of runs. Instead, Harbor is now in on more than half of them.

Finally, I wonder if the Eagles will be forced to keep three tight ends once again soon. Perhaps not if the coaches are only trying to get Harbor on the field more because he’s playing well. But if the two tight end sets become increasingly important to this offense? It might be necessary to add a third tight end to the roster at some point.

Photo from Getty.

A Questionable Decision

Not a long post today because I’m on the road (bye week excuse), but I just wanted to touch on an question that’s been bugging me since the Eagles-Redskins game last Sunday.

Why did the Eagles not try to kick the field goal on fourth and two from the Redskins 32 yard line, with three minutes left in the third quarter? 

A successful field goal in that spot puts them up 23 to 6, meaning the Redskins would need three scores to get even or go ahead. That was an unlikely proposition given that their offense was led by Rex Grossman. But Andy Reid opted to go for the first down instead.

Making a field goal from that distance certainly isn’t easy. Last year kickers made only 75 percent of kicks between 40 and 50 yards. A 47-harder would have been on the lower end of that too. But converting the first down is no picnic either — it’s roughly in the range of 55 to 60 percent likelihood. 

What did the Eagles stand to gain with that first down? A touchdown doesn’t do you significantly more good at that spot than a field goal. And even if you make the first down, there’s a good chance you still won’t reach the end zone.

So why did Reid go for it? Was it the better strategic decision? Does he want to set a new, aggressive tone, like he has told the media a few times? Or could it be something else?

Perhaps something like he doesn’t trust his rookie placekicker? You know, the one who has attempted just a single field goal this season over 38 yards.

Just a thought.