Why Castillo? Look to Sean McDermott

Others have tried to explain what exactly Andy Reid was thinking when he promoted Juan Castillo to defensive coordinator. For the record, I didn’t understand it to begin with:

Even scarier is that Castillo seemingly has no conceptual plan for the defense… Washburn runs the defensive front autonomously, and Castillo’s going to plan the back seven to “complement” his ideas? That doesn’t sound like a defensive coordinator with a coherent plan… At the end of the day, Reid couldn’t justify this decision with Castillo’s experience or knowledge or preparation. He had to fall back on “desire” and even an outlandish connection to the risk other people took when promoting Reid himself (under much more logical circumstances).

The best explanation I can come up with nine months later doesn’t actually have much to do with Castillo himself, but rather his predecessor Sean McDermott.

To start, I don’t think Reid is particularly partisan when it comes to defensive schemes. He was happy to bring Jim Johnson and let him run his blitz-happy system, although if Johnson was a Cover Two guy, it might not have made much difference. Reid has always been an offensive coach, and making sure he had a defensive coordinator who could pick a successful system and run it without help must have been the goal.

When Johnson died in 2009, Reid promoted McDermott, hoping that the young secondary coach could carry the defense forward. And if you remember, all of McDermott’s statements echoed that call for stability. Like this one:

“There is one thing I know, and that is that this system,” McDermott said. “It works. Jim has spent a considerable amount of time in his coaching career researching and finding things that work and finding things that didn’t work, quite frankly, and I’m going to respect that and we’re going to build on that. From there we’ll add wrinkles.”

Not only did the Eagles not have the time to conduct a full coordinator search, Reid was hoping that McDermott could keep everything going in such a way that the head coach wouldn’t have to worry about things on that side of the ball.

Obviously it didn’t work out. But what problems did McDermott have that Reid felt he couldn’t ignore? The first was tactical. McDermott’s schemes were often overly complicated. His “wrinkles,” like frequently dropping Trent Cole back into a zone or having a linebacker race across the defense to cover a tight end or running back, hurt more than they helped. Complicated schemes made the players seem a step slow. McDermott also lost the respect of the players in the locker room. Reporters started to hear off-the-record bad mouthing of the coach that never would have happened during Johnson’s time.

If those were your two biggest problems, I could see where it might seem logical to find someone as opposite of McDermott as possible. That’s where Castillo comes in. The man has always been respected and praised by his unit. He’s an enthusiastic, energetic leader. Plus, without a deep background in defensive coaching, a simpler scheme was almost guaranteed:

“First of all, what we’re going to do is be fast and physical, and we’re going to be fundamentally sound. We have good players here. This is the NFL, you change, you upgrade, players get hurt, but that’s what we’re going to do.”

As Sam Lynch noted, Reid’s course correction away from the McDermott errors may have been the right move in theory. But, clearly, Castillo’s promotion took the idea at least a a few steps too far.

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What Does the Danny Watkins Promotion Mean?

Geoff Mosher of The News Journal reports today that Danny Watkins, the Eagles first-round pick this year, will replace Kyle DeVan as the starting right guard this Sunday against Buffalo for his first NFL start.

This is big news for Watkins, obviously. After the Eagles gave him every chance to start in the preseason, Watkins looked completely unprepared to start. There were certainly limiting factors. He was hurt by the lockout and a brief holdout, both of which prevented him from making the transition to the NFL as fast as possible.

Still, at 26 years-old, Watkins was supposed to be NFL-ready when he arrived in Philly. The fact that he didn’t even dress for three out of the first four games strikes major doubt into estimations of Howie Roseman’s drafting, especially when the starter DeVan was so bad. Pro Football Focus pegged DeVan with the blame on both 49ers sacks, as well as four QB pressures last week. Meanwhile, the offense couldn’t buy a first down in short yardage. But really, how much did the Eagles expect out of a guy they pulled off the street a week before the season started?

With this news, we’re left wondering if Watkins was promoted due to his own progression or because the Eagles simply had no other choice. The jury is definitely still out on Watkins, and I’m not ready at all to write him off just because he couldn’t start right away. But I’m leaning toward the second option for two reasons.

First, nothing has really changed since Sunday when the Eagles decided that Watkins wasn’t good enough to put on a uniform. He couldn’t show sudden progress in practice just a day or two later. The only thing that happened recently was the coaches reviewing the game tape and seeing how bad DeVan was against the 49ers.

Second, promoting Watkins mirrors a move the Eagles made just a week ago, when they officially promoted Nate Allen to the starting lineup. Another high draft pick, Allen had been dogged with injuries but also looked completely out of his element in the preseason. He wasn’t inserted into the lineup because he healed or because he suddenly fixed his problems. No, it took a tackle “attempt” by Kurt Coleman against the Giants. Since that point, Allen hasn’t exactly looked like a stud, either.

The Eagles figured that if they’re going to get beat, it might as well be with the guys they’ve recently invested top picks in. As such, the countdown to Jaiquawn Jarrett’s promotion begins… right now.

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Time for Andy Reid to Move On?

One of my favorite stories about Andy Reid is the one about his coaching binder. It goes something like this:

As an up and coming assistant coach on Mike Holmgren’s staff, Reid saw that his mentor kept a notebook with everything from basic football philosophy to detailed notes on training camps schedules. At some point Holmgren’s notes outgrew his notebook, so he copied it into a new form and threw away the old one. Reid plucked it out of the trash.

By the time he was interviewing for the head coaching job in Philadelphia, Reid’s binder had ballooned to six inches thick. All that detail, all that preparation before he ever had a top job. It was impressive to say the least. And, like the Reid we know today who still hasn’t lost a game after the bye, he didn’t let that preparation go to waste.

Reid took over a moribund team and transformed it, improving it each year for six straight years. He found the right quarterback, hired the right assistants, drafted well, and made smart free agent acquisitions. 5-11, 11-5, 11-5, 12-4, 12-4, 13-3. Four straight NFC Championship games, one Super Bowl appearance. It was masterful, if ultimately incomplete.

The binder full of notes worked almost to perfection during those first six seasons. But six seasons later, I wonder how much of that binder is left. It’s doubtful that Reid ever had a plan for what to do after the climax of 2004. Since then, he’s mostly been spinning his wheels.

Keeping an NFL team competitive this long is very difficult, but Reid and company have managed. They’ve kept the team at or above .500 every year after 2005 and reached the playoffs four times. But the team also hasn’t improved during that span. Some of the same problems remain, some have changed, but at the end of the day Reid hasn’t lived up to the standard of constant improvement he set in his first six seasons.

When the Eagles have brought in top free agents over the last few years, one of the things they almost invariably mention is continuity. Reid’s long tenure and the relative stability of the front office is comforting. The Eagles “are always competitive” and “always have a shot to win it all.”

That’s certainly better than never having a shot, but continuity also implies a certain complacency and stagnation. The Eagles of the first half of Reid’s tenure marched forward relentlessly, like a man who pushes himself a mile further each day, intent on completing a marathon. Those Eagles didn’t have continuity, they were aggressively ascending.

Those Eagles were like an army growing in strength and resolve as it approached its target. Today’s team seems to have set up camp outside the enemy’s capital, in the sixth year of a siege that shows no sign of ending. Sometimes they launch an attack, sometimes they just sit and wait. They’re always close to taking the city, but the progress and the urgency is gone.

I’ve long been a supporter of Reid, and I still believe he can win the Super Bowl. But the road doesn’t get easier as you stay in the job longer and that urgency slips away. He may have missed his window in Philadelphia.

Look at the list of Super Bowl coaches over the last 20 years. They average just 4.3 seasons of tenure as the head coach of their team. Only Bill Cowher and Joe Gibbs have managed to win it all after their 6th season.

To some degree there’s a bias here, because coaches don’t often last much beyond their 6th season, if they make it that far. But list the longest tenured coaches and you don’t see many Cowhers. Andy Reid, Jeff Fisher, Brian Billick, John Fox. They last and they last and ultimately never find that elusive second chance. Whether that’s because they lose their edge, because their can’t find the right personnel, or because they can’t replace coaching talent, I don’t know.

The Eagles front office has bungled the 2011 season in multiple ways. With better coaching and one or two different acquisitions, maybe they’re off to a 4-0 start. But perhaps those mistakes aren’t one-off blunders. Perhaps they are indicative of a franchise that’s been running in place for six years. And if that’s the case, it’s probably time to clean house and start over.

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Fire Juan Castillo Yesterday

If he can’t bottle up the anemic San Francisco offense, Juan Castillo deserves to be fired posthaste.

That’s what I wrote just two days ago. And after the defense’s wretched performance in the second half against the 49ers, it’s time to end this farce.

Look, Castillo is not and has never been the only problem on the 2011 Eagles. Dropped passes, missed opportunities, bad playcalling, turnovers, inadequate rookies. You can spread that 1-3 blame around pretty easily.

But there is simply no denying that the Juan Castillo Experiment™ is over. The results are impossible to ignore. Three straight fourth quarter leads blown. Career high passer ratings for the last two mediocre quarterbacks to visit the Linc. An incompetent run defense rivaled only by a routinely torched pass defense.

Some people (at least as of a few days ago) still put the blame on the players. And, heck, the players certainly blame themselves. But let me explain to you exactly why it’s Castillo, not the players, who’s at fault.

Let’s start by traveling back in time about 10 months, when Andy Reid kicked Sean McDermott to the curb. I don’t think there were many people who disagreed with that move. The Eagles defense had disappointed for two straight seasons and McDermott had lost the respect of the locker room.

That defense also had major personnel holes. Neither Ellis Hobbs nor Dimitri Patterson were quality NFL starting cornerbacks. Ernie Sims played like a shark out of water. Stewart Bradley was similarly, if not quite so hopelessly inept in the middle. And there was not a single pass rushing threat outside of Trent Cole.

Ultimately, the Eagles decided to overhaul both the players and the coaching. They let Sims, Patterson, Bradley, Bunkley, and Mikell walk. In their place they brought in Pro Bowlers Jason Babin, Cullen Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and Nnamdi Asomuga. McDermott was fired, along with the rest of the defensive staff. Reid brought in Jim Washburn to install a new defensive line scheme and Castillo to oversee it all.

After four games, we can see what was evident in the preseason: the defense continues to have major personnel issues. The linebackers, even slightly improved with Brian Rolle subbing for Casey Matthews, remain a work in progress. Jarrad Page leads a revolving door of subpar safeties. Still, overall you can’t look at this defense and say that the talent isn’t significantly better than the one McDermott managed to a 10-6 record last year.

Castillo has more to work with, but has done less than the man he replaced. He has so far been completely unable to scheme around and protect his weaker starters. There is zero evidence of adjustments as the games go on, causing second half leads to disappear faster than full sentences at a Reid losing game press conference.

Even worse, Catillo’s schemes have actually mitigated the strengths of some of his best players. Look at Asomugha. This is a player who’s one of the top two or three man-to-man press cover cornerbacks in the NFL. When they call his number to match up one on one against Roddy White or Hakeem Nicks or Vernon Davis, he shuts them down. That’s what the $60 million contract was for. But frequently Castillo asks Asomugha to drop back into zone coverage, give the wide receiver a big cushion, or go all the way back into a free safety spot. Quite simply, that hasn’t worked.

In today’s game, for example, Asomugha was playing zone on an Alex Smith rollout pass in the third quarter. Nnamdi was sucked out of position to his left, allowing Kendall Hunter to break free for a 44 yard gain. It was ugly, but foreseeable. A good defensive coordinator finds ways to maximize the talents and minimize the weaknesses of his players.

Furthermore, Castillo’s main message all offseason was a return to fundamentals. Supposedly he was going to re-instill a basic attacking defense that lets the players play without overthinking. After all the missed tackles and blown assignments, it’s clear that he can’t even deliver on that promise.

Castillo may be a great motivator for his players. But he’s bringing little else to the table. His promotion didn’t make sense at the time, and after an offseason and a quarter of the season gone, Castillo still hasn’t done anything to change our minds. Time to fire him while you still might be able to salvage the defense.

Photo from Getty.

Of Breast Cancer and Horror Films

I really don’t get it. At least save this stuff for the Cowboy game the night before Halloween. Right?

Week Four
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 pm ET on FOX

Juan Castillo's Last Chance

There is little question in my mind that Juan Castillo, much like the young linebackers he has thrust into the spotlight, simply isn’t ready for primetime. So far there has been nothing to suggest that Castillo can game plan effectively to utilize his great defensive line and shutdown corners or minimize his personnel weaknesses.

Thus, this Sunday’s game is a must-win for the defensive coordinator. If he can’t bottle up the anemic San Francisco offense, Castillo deserves to be fired posthaste.

Let me detail for you just how bad the 49ers offense is. According to Football Outsiders, they have the second-worst pass blocking offensive line, the worst starting running back in Frank Gore, and no wide receiver with more than seven receptions. Alex Smith is the 25th-best quarterback in the NFL, just behind Bengals rookie Andy Dalton.

The 49ers have exactly one serious offensive weapon: Vernon Davis, the athletic tight end who has twice the receptions as San Fran’s next best receiving threat.

Planning to defend and disrupt this offense should be the football equivalent of handing someone a nearly completed crossword puzzle, final word: three letters, “easy as ___”.

Given the Eagles huge advantages against the 49ers wide receivers and offensive line, they should be able to keep San Fran from scoring much more than 10 points. And Juan Castillo has no excuse for letting Vernon Davis or anyone else on that team beat him, even with the problems the Eagles linebackers and safeties have had.

If the Eagles can’t shut this offense down, there will be no more time to let him rearrange a few players here and there. Castillo either wins this week or he’s out the door.

Photo from Getty.

Offensive Responsibility: Stop the Turnovers

The number one problem with the Eagles through three games is their defense. By almost every measure other than sacks, Juan Castillo’s unit ranks near the bottom of the league. But I sense there’s a healthy sense of dissatisfaction with the offense as well.

On the surface, those concerns seem overblown. The Eagles offense, after all, ranks 10th in the NFL in points per game and sixth in yards.They have the fourth-most first downs and the fourth-highest third down conversion rate. Moreover, they’ve done all of this despite an offensive line that was hastily stitched together and having their MVP quarterback get knocked out of two games.

So what’s the problem? Obviously, after last week, short yardage and red zone concerns are high on the list of many Eagles fans. We will have to see if those issues linger through the rest of the season.

But perhaps the biggest culprit in the offense’s sporadic ineptitude has simply been turnovers. Against Atlanta Michael Vick threw an interception and lost two fumbles. Then last Sunday the Giants came away with three interceptions, one from Vick and two gifts from Mike Kafka. The Eagles currently have the 6th-worst turnover per drive ratio in the NFL.

Off those six turnovers, the Eagles opponents scored 28 points — easily the difference between winning and losing against the Falcons and Giants. A large portion of that blame rests with the Eagles defense, which needs to step up and protect the lead when the offense makes a mistake. But the defense’s ineptitude doesn’t absolve the offense of responsibility either.

Until Castillo can shore up the Eagles defense, Vick (with injured hand) and company have to be extra smart with the football. Even with a sieve of a linebacker corps, both of the last two games were winnable until the end. A few more points, a couple fewer mistakes, and maybe you start turn things around again.

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The Myth of Andy Reid's Late Season Success

This post is going to be short and sweet. The takeaway: Andy Reid’s teams do not always improve as the season goes on.

Fans and commentators often repeat the same conventional wisdom that Reid has the Eagles running at peak performance coming down the stretch. Right now, some people are using it to ward away bad feelings about the Eagles’ disappointing first three games. Unfortunately it’s a myth propagated by poor use of statistics.

You might have seen the statistic that Reid is 35-14 in December. But it’s a rather crazy idea to suggest that the month of December somehow brings out the best in the Eagles. What’s so special about that month over others? Let’s look at Reid’s win percentage over the last 12 years by game:

I’ve included the trendline, which makes it look like there’s improvement. But check out the r-squared value. The “improvement” isn’t significant. If there’s any correlation at all, it’s dwarfed by other factors.

You can cherry-pick games 12, 13, and 14 where his win percentage is 75 percent. But (a) over 12 years that result is less than 1 win better than average, and (b) in the bookend games 11 and 15 the team is actually below average. Making any argument based just on those three games is a multiple endpoints problem.

I wouldn’t try to blame Sunday’s game on a typically slow start either. It’s true that week two is the only week where the Eagles have more losses than wins, but until the Giants loss, Reid had won the last 10 week three games.

Above I’ve averaged Reid’s career by point differential, rather than win percentage. This gives more credit to big wins, less credit to close losses, etc. And again, no significant correlation. The wins and losses might as well be distributed at random across all weeks.

Reid is a good coach whose teams have consistently won most of their games. And the team might yet turn things around in 2011. But Reid is no more likely to do better late in the season than he’s doing right now.

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