The Afternoon After

I’m a big fan of blogger and scout Tommy Lawlor. There is absolutely no one who works harder in the Eagles blogosphere, and his detailed breakdowns of each week’s game are must-reads for anyone who considers him or herself to be a fan.

But sometimes Tommy is just a little too cheery. Today, when he posted his thoughts “The Morning After”, Tommy obfuscated some of the issues that made most Eagles fans retch during Sunday’s game. Follow along with my inline rebuttal below.

In some ways the game was better on tape.

In that you knew what to expect going in?

Missed tackles by Kurt Coleman, Jarrad Page, and Jamar Chaney were the worst. Those guys turned short plays into big gainers and/or TDs… Coleman’s miss on Victor Cruz should never happen. Kurt had him lined up and should have made a routine play. Cruz did nothing special. The mistake was all on Kurt for making a horrible, horrible attempt.

Wait. Was it a mistake or a “horrible, horrible attempt”? Those seem like two different things…

Kurt’s idiocy gave them a 74-yard gift. Huge, huge turning point in the game.

So Coleman is just dumb? And again, is that a mistake or a horrible attempt? Maybe it will become clear later on.

I am obviously frustrated with the team, but still have feelings of optimism as well. I know that makes me a delusional homer/idiot/delusional idiot/nut job, but hear me out.

It doesn’t, I want to be convinced.

At the 11:43 mark of the 4th quarter yesterday we led 16-14. The Giants had 232 yards of offense to that point (205 in the 1st half, 27 in the 3rd Qtr). Those yards came on basically 4 plays… 4 plays led to 177 of 232 yards. We’d largely controlled the game, aside from our mistakes.

For starters, why are we talking just about the first three quarters? Didn’t the big collapse happen in fourth? If I read this right, “we” held the injury-depleted Giants to only 55 yards through three quarters — if you take away every big play. I’m convinced already. Actually, this is the post-game pep talk for every team the Eagles beat last year, isn’t it? “Well, if you remove those big plays we gave up and that one awful quarter that lost us the game… VICTORY MONDAY!”

I’m not excusing the mistakes. We made them and they cost us 14 points. But…to that point, we’d kept things under control and had taken the lead. Unfortunately that’s when Andy went for it on 4th/1 and gave the Giants renewed hope. Horrible, horrible decision by Big Red. The Giants may still have won the game, but that call really changed things instantly.

It was a poor decision. But am I supposed to blame the Eagles giving up the next 15 unanswered points on that one fourth down call? I thought the defense “controlled the game” through three quarters.

My point in all of this is that our biggest problem is our own mistakes. That is something that can be fixed.

Or not, seeing as there isn’t exactly a wealth of talent behind those guys.

Last year no matter what the coaches did Dimitri Patterson was still going to be Dimitri Patterson. Hakeem Nicks killed him. Cruz got us for 2 TDs yesterday, but they involved a horrid tackle attempt and our CB missing the ball by maybe 2 inches. That’s far different than having a player who simply can’t match up with the opposing player.

When Tommy classifies something as a “mistake” he means that the player is good but just had a momentary horrible play. The truth is that making mistakes is what makes you a bad player. Casey Matthews doesn’t get to say “well, I just made one mistake.” The mistake proves he isn’t ready to start.

Also, it takes some twisted logic to say that getting beat by a bad player is more excusable than getting beat by a good one.

I understand that there is no guarantee the mistakes will get fixed. Some teams never get fully on track. I have faith in Andy Reid and the players…

Even after this the way this season has started? Based on what?

Let’s not forget that Reid has been backed into a corner before. The 2003 team started 0-2 before rallying to go 12-4… The 2006 team was 5-6 at one point… That team then won 5 in a row and even a playoff game. The 2008 team bottomed out at 5-5-1 after a rough defeat in Baltimore. That group went 4-1 and just missed a trip to the Super Bowl. Set us aside. Green Bay last year was 3-3 and couldn’t stop the run. They made some adjustments on offense and defense and finished okay as I recall. The 2007 Giants started 0-2.

Right, because most teams that start poorly end up going to the Super Bowl. Let’s go see who started 1-2 in 2010… Broncos, Jaguars, Chargers, Raiders, Giants, Redskins, Cowboys, Vikings, Rams — none of whom made the playoffs.

If the coaches make the right changes and the players respond, we’ll be okay. If not, we’re in for a long year. Reid has a track record of making the right adjustments and getting things worked out…

Like “adjusting” his offensive line coach to be defensive coordinator?

By the Numbers: A Miserable Disaster

Let me revise my opening statement from a week ago: Last night’s Yesterday’s loss was cruel a disaster. The Eagles showed extended stretches of dominance on both offense and defense, but made vital mistakes, suffered awful injuries, and came up just short in the end ended up losing by two touchdowns to a depleted Giants team. Oh, and the coaching stunk.

Let’s break it down with some statistics:

13:42 = Time of possession advantage to the Eagles. They had the ball over 50 percent more than the Giants, ran 21 more offensive plays, and reached 11 more first downs. Yet the Eagles only scored 16 points. How is that possible? One word: coaching. Those numbers are indicative of the talent disparity in the Eagles favor. Only horrible play calling (see: Schmitt, Owen and shovel pass, predictable) could cause the Eagles to settle for three field goals in the red zone.

4 = Times the Eagles were stopped in short yardage situations, including three plays from the one-yard-line and a fourth down attempt. We will have to see if this becomes a theme. Howard Mudd’s offensive line philosophy requires smaller, athletic linemen. That hasn’t been a benefit on short yardage. During his time in Indianapolis, Mudd’s lines averaged only 19th in Power Success.

6th = Most rushing yards in game for an Eagles player in the post-Duce Staley era. Pretty much the only positive you can take away from this game is the play of LeSean McCoy, who has quietly made his case for being the best offensive player on the team, if not the whole league. McCoy’s play warranted the almost even split of run to pass calls Andy Reid doled out yesterday.

4 = Big plays allowed of 25 yards or more, including three touchdowns. Sometimes it’s easy to assign blame, like on the Brandon Jacobs touchdown wheel route when Casey Matthews (AKA white Ernie Sims) failed to pick him up. Sometimes it’s more difficult, like on the patented Eli Manning interception gift that Victor Cruz somehow beat out Nnamdi Asomugha and Jarrad Page for the go-ahead TD. It doesn’t matter, though. Other than experimenting with Brian Rolle at weakside linebacker, hardly a sure thing, the cupboard’s empty. With big personnel holes and a coordinator who seems completely incapable of making schematic adjustments, the Eagles defense is lost.

8 = First week of the NFL season that the Eagles have any hope of seeing Michael Vick return to the field after his broken hand. The team faces teams that are a combined 7-1 over the next three weeks. Unless Vince Young or Mike Kafka can summon some heretofore unseen magic and the defense improves rapidly, this team could rapidly dig a hole for themselves that’s too deep for even Vick to get them out of.

Photo from Getty.

Compliments of the Eagles, Take One

For when setting people on fire is funny. See y’all in the press box.

Week Three
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 pm ET on FOX

Howie Roseman: Pound Wise, Penny Foolish?

Three weeks back, on the last day of roster cuts, the Eagles released cornerback Joselio Hanson. At the time, I wasn’t too worried about the move. Sure, it would have been nice if the Eagles could have gotten something back for Hanson in a trade, but ultimately the fourth corner is little more than an injury insurance policy.

Only a few days later though, Hanson was back in the fold. Apparently he initially refused to take a pay cut, but realized afterward that the reduced salary was still better than what was offered by other teams.

So, after a little bit of drama, Howie Roseman and the Eagles seemed to come out on top. They kept a solid player at a discount. It was the last of an offseason’s worth of smart moves. All the preparation for this free agency period, the aggressive signing of stars like Nnamdi Asomugha, Cullen Jenkins, and Jason Babin, has already started to pay off.

But for all that the Eagles front office did to outmaneuver the competition, stealing players away from division rivals and wowing the league with their salary cap smarts, they have been remarkably shortsighted on some smaller matters.

The normal idiom is “penny wise and pound foolish,” describing a person that does all the little things right but throws larger chunks of money away. In some ways, the Eagles front office has displayed the opposite problem. They made a ton of big moves that look great right now. Grabbing all these Pro Bowlers was remarkable. Based on those decisions, the team should be Super Bowl-bound.

So what’s holding them back? The small things. There were plenty of cheap, starting-caliber (if not All-Star quality) linebackers on the open market. Instead, the team went with a fourth-round rookie and two other young, unproven players. That decision may have cost them a win at Atlanta. The late reshuffling of the offensive line hasn’t hurt the Eagles. But the rookie kicker and punter don’t look confident yet. We’ll see if that becomes a problem down the road.

Meanwhile, in two games, Hanson has played just three snaps. 3. Not that the Hanson signing precluded bringing a linebacker in, but wouldn’t the money have been better spent on a linebacker insurance policy?

The Eagles went to such great lengths to win the offseason, but failed to fill a few crucial holes. With some luck and some adjustments, those oversights don’t have to cripple the team’s Super Bowl chances. But they sure are making things a lot harder on themselves.

Photo from Getty.

Reasons to Worry About the Eagles-Giants Game

Last week I told you why the Falcons weren’t a team to worry about. Of course, they ended up beating the Eagles. Now I’m going to tell you that this week’s opponent, the Giants, are a surprisingly worrisome matchup. Given my track record, the Eagles will probably end up blowing out the Giants. But let me air my concerns anyway.

On the whole, the Giants defense is an injury-riddled unit. But those pass rushers still look formidable. I have no desire to see Justin Tuck bearing down either on injured Michael Vick or first-time starter Mike Kafka. If the Eagles quarterback - whoever it is - can get time to throw, the Giants secondary is eminently beatable. But will they have that time? So far Howard Mudd’s offensive line has exceeded my expectations. Let’s see if they can keep it up this weekend.

I also worry, as usual, about the Eagles run defense matched up against a team that enjoys playing power football. Looking at the Adjusted Line Yard stats for the Eagles defensive line is instructive. The attacking defensive line is definitely disrupting running backs, as the Eagles have the second best “power success” rate and fifth best “stuffed” rank. But once the play gets to the linebackers, yikes. The Eagles are ranked 29th in “second level” rush yards (5-10 yards from scrimmage) and 31st in the “open field” (10+ yards). And don’t expect some big improvement  just because the Eagles are rearranging the deck chairs.

Finally, isn’t odd that people don’t seem concerned about Vick missing this game? Perhaps fans are more sure that Vick will return from his concussion than I am, but I don’t know what that’s based on. As of Thursday morning he hadn’t passed his concussion tests. Is everybody sure that Kafka can win the game on Sunday? He looked like he belonged last week, and might have been a Jeremy Maclin drop away from winning the game. Not to mention, his performance was better than other, more highly touted quarterbacks coming off the Eagles bench in the past. But will he be able to step up for a full game? That’s still very much up in the air.

The most lopsided matchup in the whole game will be Eli Manning against the Eagles pass rushers and cornerbacks. Luckily for the Eagles, Manning doesn’t have a Hall of Fame tight end to rely on either. So there’s a good chance they will sack and pick off Eli enough to obviate any other issues.

But if that’s not enough, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Photo from Getty.

Put Nnamdi Asomugha Back at Cornerback

One of the things I never thought I’d say about new Eagles defensive coordinator Juan Castillo was that his schemes are too complicated. And while overall his system seems to be an order of magnitude simpler than ex-coordinator Sean McDermott, Castillo still shares his predecessor’s maddening tendency to overcomplicate things in some respects.

When I re-watched the Eagles pass defense in their loss to the Falcons on Sunday, some defensive breakdowns were apparent. There was poor coverage here and there by all the linebackers as well as the safeties. Overall, though, I wasn’t as discouraged by the performance of the players as one particular scheme that Castillo came back to on multiple occasions.

That scheme involved bringing one or more of the safeties, Jarrad Page and Kurt Coleman, up into the box or into underneath coverage on a receiver. Either Asante Samuel or Nnamdi Asomugha dropped back and played center field instead.

Now, it may seem obvious why this sounds like a flawed plan. For starters, you’re taking one of the two best coverage players in the entire NFL away from a receiver they can cover. Plus, neither player has much, if any, experience at safety. This scheme actually takes one of your top defensive assets and turns him into a liability.

Turns out that’s exactly what happened against the Falcons. Let me highlight two plays in particular.

On the first play, the Falcons had 1st and 10 in the red zone during the third quarter. Asomugha was at safety, while Page moved up to cover Tony Gonzalez in the slot. Page gives fair coverage on Gonzalez, but isn’t athletic enough to mark him perfectly. The ball comes in the seam up the middle, and Page is slightly beat. 

This is where a safety might come in handy. But Asomugha indecisively shifted over to the opposite side, where Samuel already had good coverage on his man. When Gonzalez made the catch and pushed in for the touchdown, Nnamdi was still 8 yards back in the end zone.

The Eagles played a similar scheme later in the quarter. Samuel is matched up on the outside against Roddy White, who runs the only pass route on a play action play. Asante takes the outside coverage on White’s slant, expecting safety help in the middle. But Asomugha doesn’t read the play in time. He’s still backing up when the ball reaches White for a 17 yard gain.

Maybe there are benefits to this scheme that I’m not aware of, but all the evidence from the Falcons game suggests that it’s a poor strategy. Castillo would be better off putting his best cover corners on the opponent’s top receiving options and letting them do what they do best. Then put the safeties in their normal spots, and let the opposing teams try to beat them.

Don’t overthink it.

Photo from Getty.

Eagles-Falcons Rewind: Grading the Run Defense

Over the last few weeks, I’ve talked a lot about linebacker and my concerns about the position that appears to be the Eagles biggest Super Bowl hurdle. So last night I went back and re-watched the Falcons loss, focusing only on the run defense to try to see what was going on there.

I counted 23 Atlanta rushes. 15 of those came against the base Eagles defense, with Jamar Chaney, Casey Matthews, and Moise Fokou at linebacker. 7 came against the nickel, with only Chaney and Matthews playing, including the final 6 runs of the game. 1 play, at the goal line, involved 6 defensive linemen and four linebackers with the addition of Keenan Clayton.

Of those plays, 7 involved a defensive line stop or, often, tackle for a loss. Trent Cole, as everyone noticed live, absolutely manhandled Falcons left tackle Sam Baker. But the defensive line certainly didn’t bottle up everything. There were big holes at times and Atlanta utilized trap blocks and counters heavily to exploit them.

Of the 16 plays that got to the linebacker level, I gave the group a generous 8 stops. On this half, most were solid plays by Matthews or Chaney. They refused to get sucked in on movement and worked their way out of traffic or blocks from the Falcons offensive linemen. Don’t think I charted one good play of run defense from Fokou.

And the other half? Those were very poor showings by the linebackers. Sometimes they were too anxious to rush up the field or engage with blockers instead of staying in their lanes. Other times they were on their heels, thinking too much and not reacting. 

I don’t have the stats to compare this (if anyone does please let me know), but having one third or more of all runs make it to the third level doesn’t look pretty for the defense. Now, the secondary could certainly do a better job on run defense as well. Turner’s 61-yard run was particularly damning for Kurt Coleman (awful angle), Jarrad Page (hesitation & stumble), and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Asante-itis).

Still, it’s hard for me to speak positively about the linebacker corps. They did show promise, in that they did well sometimes. But inconsistent would be an understatement. The only change I’d make to my aforementioned suggestion would be to replace Fokou before Matthews, since the third-year player looks even more hopeless than his rookie counterpart. Perhaps another 7th-round pick, Brian Rolle, would be better, although that’s far from a sure thing.

Otherwise it’s time for a Will Witherspoon-esque pick-up or for Juan Castillo to change up the scheme. Something’s gotta give.

Photo from Getty.

By the Numbers: Why the Eagles Lost

Last night’s loss was cruel. The Eagles showed extended stretches of dominance on both offense and defense, but made vital mistakes, suffered awful injuries, and came up just short in the end. Let’s break it down with some basic statistics:

14 = The number of targets by Matt Ryan to his wide receivers, for a meager 71 yards.

14 = The number of targets by Ryan to his tight ends and running backs, for a much-less-meager 123 yards. The Eagles defense stifled the wide receivers once again, keeping them to only 5 yards per target. But the linebackers (and Jarrad Page) proved they can’t be trusted to cover at all. They let an aging Tony Gonzalez and “No Afterburner” Michael Turner rack up a ridiculous 9 yards per target, a completion percentage of 71 percent, and 3 touchdowns.

4 = Tackles for a loss by Trent Cole. It’s a testament to the Eagles ineptitude at linebacker that Cole could have such a beast of a day and the defense could still struggle to stop the run. I couldn’t see them on every play, but Casey Matthews especially took horrendous routes to away from the ballcarrier.

222 to 98 = Number of first half yards gained by the Eagles compared to the Falcons. If you’re ever asked how it’s possible to out-gain an opponent by more than twice the yards and still be down going into the half, there’s only one answer: turnovers. Take away one of those fumbles by Michael Vick, the Eagles run away with the game.

1 = Helmet-to-helmet roughing the passer personal foul on Todd Herremans. If Vick doesn’t come out of the game with a concussion at the end of the third quarter, there’s no question in my mind that the Eagles win. On that drive, the Eagles extended their come-from-behind lead to 10 points, having scored 3 touchdowns in the last 4 possessions. Meanwhile, Atlanta was foundering. On their three possessions prior to Vick’s injury, the Falcons ran 7 plays for 0 yards, an interception, and 2 punts. After, they had 2 drives with 19 plays, 170 yards, and 2 touchdowns to retake the lead. That’s called “new life.”

And yet, despite everything, if Jeremy Maclin catches that 4th and 4 pass from AJ Feeley Mike Kafka, the Eagles still might have won this game. What does that tell us? That the Falcons were lucky to sneak out with a win. If Vick comes back healthy and Andy Reid benches his in-over-his-head rookie middle linebacker, I’d make them a two touchdown favorite in a playoff rematch.

Photo from Getty.