Asante, Asomugha, and Apocryphal Aces

Right before free agency began, I started to write a post about what the Eagles could learn from the Phillies. I noted some of the similarities between two front offices that in recent years have been aggressive as well as value-oriented. But I also pointed out that the Eagles might do well to follow the cross town example of Ruben Amaro, who has no qualms about going for it all without qualification.

At the end of the post, I was going to recommend that the Eagles look seriously into signing Nnamdi Asomugha, despite my previous reservations. Adding him, in tandem with Asante Samuel, was as close a move as I could come up with to the Phillies signing Cliff Lee to assemble the Four Aces. Of course, what I didn’t anticipate was that the Eagles would actually follow through on that unpublished suggestion.

Unfortunately, after Samuel’s press conference yesterday, it has become clear that the Eagles may have learned the wrong lesson from the Phils. To put it bluntly, I don’t expect Asante Samuel to still be in Philly a week from now. As I’ve said in other places, this looks a lot like a “trade for Halladay, trade away Lee” deal.

And that’s a shame. There’s a reason the Phillies reversed course and resigned Lee last offseason. Plus, I’m just not sure what the Eagles can get for Asante at this stage. As far as I can tell, the Eagles valued Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie as a second round pick. Samuel is certainly worth more than that. As a consistent Pro Bowler and interception machine, Samuel should command a first round pick in 2012 (only worth a 2011 second rounder) plus something else, like another player or mid round pick. Is any team going to be willing to pay that price?

Hedging bets to be competitive today and in the future has made the Eagles a paragon of consistency. But sometimes you have to break your own rules. Reward requires some risk.

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A couple more notes about the deal.

First, watching Asomugha’s press conference, you can tell he might be the more articulate player to take the microphone in Philly in at least the last decade. Not to slight other geniuses in the locker room, but the man used “apocryphal” in a sentence. He’s raising the bar on and off the field.

Additionally, check out this quote:

I did it the way I like to do it, making the decision early. So that decision was made in March. So once we made that decision, we put all the pieces together, marked off the boxes, saw what we thought was the best fit — when that comes around full circle, you got to go with it.

Was that Nnamdi describing his free agency decision, or Howie Roseman describing the Eagles offseason process? Perfectly in sync.

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Finally, I think if the Eagles do keep Asante, they run the risk of discovering that either he or Nnamdi isn’t quite as good as they thought. When you have one great corner, all the passes can be funneled to the other side. But two great corners means teams will be forced to choose. Whoever they choose would be the weaker link.

Photo from Getty.

What We Learned: Eagles Hated the 2010 Defense

The Eagles defense in 2010 wasn’t awful.

Let me just throw that out there. Football Outsiders ranked the Eagles D 14th in the NFL. That’s better than the median, if only slightly. Similarly, Cold Hard Football Facts placed the Eagles 9th in Defensive Hog Index and 11th in Defensive Passer Rating. Not bad.

Plus, it’s easy to lay the blame for the problems the Eagles did have on a couple specific spots, starting with Sean McDermott’s overcomplicated and ineffective schemes. When he was fired back in January, it was widely perceived to be the biggest change the Eagles would make. McDermott didn’t work out, he was the problem, etc.

But it wasn’t just McDermott who was let go. Andy Reid, for the first time, purged almost the entire defensive coaching staff. He fired defensive line coach Rory Segrest next. He declined to renew linebackers coach Bill Shuey’s contract. He didn’t push to keep secondary coach Dick Jauron around after just one year.

In promoting two assistant positional coaches, picking up Jim Washburn and Johnnie Lynn, and moving Juan Castillo to lead the operation, Reid couldn’t have made a more drastic coaching change. The focus, the scheme, the technique, the personalities — new faces all around.

During the lockout lull, you would have been forgiven for having thought such a major overhaul (on a scale we’d never seen before) was the end. You might have hoped for a new cornerback in free agency to fix that revolving door of ineptitude, but what else did you expect? The change already happened. McDermott wasn’t solely to blame, but coaching was.

Then free agency rolled around, and suddenly the Eagles front office was executing a similarly radical shift in player personnel. The offense went largely untouched, but the defense was gutted and rebuilt. Bye bye to defensive stalwarts like Quintin Mikell and Stewart Bradley. Replace them with rookies and other unproven youngsters. Grab a new RCB in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Sign a new starting LDE in Jason Babin. Another new cornerback: the esteemed Nnamdi Asomugha. A new starting defensive tackle, Cullen Jenkins. Ship Brodrick Bunkley off. Asante Samuel is probably next. Overall, in addition to a brand new coaching staff, the Eagles will likely have at least six new starters on defense.

It’s clear to me now that Andy Reid and the rest of the front office thought the defense, despite anecdotal and statistical evidence to the contrary, was awful in 2010. You don’t replace almost everything about the defense if you think the unit was above average, unlucky, or close to a rebound. Nor do you take this path if you can lay the blame just on or two aspects. In fact, there isn’t a team in the NFL right now that has so dramatically overhauled their defense - even the ones that, on paper, were significantly worse.

Note that I don’t yet call it an improvement. Making that judgment will take time, as new layers assimilate, younger players step up, and new coaching doctrines sink in. There are still question marks, especially at linebacker and safety. The change was extreme, but it’s not yet complete. Plenty of time to see if the revamped Eagles defense is really what was needed.

Farewell Kevin Kolb, We Hardly Knew You

Perhaps the strangest thing about the Kevin Kolb era was that it never came to pass.

Of course, at first we didn’t see him coming. It’s easy to forget the shock and dismay that accompanied Kolb’s first day as an Eagle. Drafting him upset the entire foundation upon which Andy Reid had run the franchise the previous eight years. Reid and Donovan McNabb, joined at the hip through their NFC Championship Game losses and endless boring press conferences, defined the Eagles years from 1999 to 2006. Among the fans, there was little daylight between the two.

McNabb and Reid were the past, present, and future of the Eagles — until April 28, 2007. Suddenly, that narrative broke. Commentators like to point out that McNabb was booed on draft day. The fan base was certainly split back then. But no pick has met with such immediate and overwhelming… confusion. Who was this no-name quarterback from Houston? Why not get a player who can start immediately? How long until he takes over?

And so began the countdown. The confused countdown to an era that never began.

No player in Eagles history has so radically altered the conversation around the team while achieving so little on the field. Kolb changed the entire dynamic. In his second year he inched closer to the starting job. A false start in Baltimore in 2008, followed by a huge step forward in 2009, with impressive spot starts against the Saints and Chiefs that instilled major confidence in Kolb from the fans.

As we rolled into 2010, the debate was raging, but the move was fait accompli. The Eagles traded McNabb to the Redskins to cause ever more drama and we looked to the shining example of Aaron Rodgers to guide the Eagles new leader. Finally, the Kolb era had begun.

Until… it didn’t.

Kolb threw seven passes before Clay Matthews slammed his head into the ground. Seven passes was all the chance he ever got. Michael Vick strode in, almost saved the game against Green Bay, then expanded upon his newfound passing skills in the win at Detroit. On September 21, Reid named Vick the starter. That was it. The rest is epilogue: the Vick era, an exciting new future to contemplate.

For three years Kolb waited for his turn, always just around the next bend. He finally got his chance — foiled. If not for the cruel twists of fate, his rightful time as Eagles leader should have begun in 2010 and continued for at least as long as McNabb. Kolb’s time was incomplete, his promise as an Eagle unfulfilled. Now, as he jets across the country to Arizona, I want to understand the Kolb era. I want resolution, but I can’t find it.

Unless that was the Kolb era. The waiting, the countdown, the drama, the injuries — that certainly wasn’t about McNabb, nor was it yet about Vick. The McNabb years, as I see them now, describe a rise into the NFL elite, a turnaround that peaked with one Super Bowl shot. And Vick’s time is only just beginning. But the Kolb era represents all of the unfulfilled promise in between.

For the last four years the Eagles have always been one year away from the Super Bowl. Fundamentally flawed young teams that showed tremendous potential, but could never capitalize on slivers of opportunity: a confusing countdown that never ended. Rationalization and hope. Ultimately, a brief footnote in the team’s long history.

On one hand Kolb never got his shot. But on the other, he defined the Eagles better than anyone else during his time in Philadelphia. We just couldn’t see it until he was walking out the door.

Photo from Getty.

Finally! Eagles Trade Kolb for DRC, 2nd Rd. Pick

Last year, when the Eagles traded Donovan McNabb, I was shocked. Now I’m just relieved. Took long enough.

And not sure why everyone’s so surprised the Eagles could get a second round pick with Rodgers-Cromartie. The Cardinals had to bid against fair market value. Young, talented, potential franchise quarterbacks don’t come cheap.

Adam Caplan called it first. Arizona handed Kolb a five-year extension for over $63 million with over $20 million guaranteed. Lucky guy.

I’ll be back later with more.

Kolb Watch: Free Agency Third Day Live Blog

Today’s the day. I think. The final hurdle has to be Kevin Kolb’s new contract. Hopefully that will get settled shortly. My prediction, once again, is Kolb for Rodgers-Cromartie + Arizona’s 2012 2nd round pick + another conditional middle round pick.

Can’t promise the same kind of strange happenings as yesterday, but hit it here for updates as we go along.

9:54 am - Eagles sign Jason Babin to a 5-year deal (Jay Glazer), worth $28 million (Jim Wyatt). There’s your new defensive end. However, as Sam Lynch points out, this is probably a front-loaded deal. No one should expect Babin to still be on the team in 2015, when he’ll be 36.

Time to see if Babin just had a fluke season or if Jim Washburn really discovered his talent.

2:13 pm - Looking more and more like the Kolb deal will go down today. Howard Eskin confirmed my speculation that the Cardinals are working on his contract extension. Adam Caplan also tweeted that the two sides have made “substantial progress in recent hours.”

Photo: “Chasing Andy” from and of Jeff McLane.

Notes on a Bizarre, Boring Start to Free Agency

So Kevin Kolb didn’t fly out the door on Tuesday at 10:01 am. Looks like it will take at least another day to iron out the details. While the smart money is still on Kolb ending up in Arizona, both the Cardinals and Eagles seem to be doing some last minute maneuvering for leverage.

Some reporters have argued that the Eagles are losing leverage as potential suitors, like Seattle, move on other options. I don’t agree. The Eagles may be losing the ability to jack up the price even higher, but Kolb’s value seems fairly set based on previous trades. The Eagles main leverage is derived from their ability to simply reject any deal and keep Kolb as an inexpensive backup, as well as Arizona’s obvious need for a legitimate long term answer at quarterback. None of critical facts have changed.

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Early yesterday morning I published a post ranking the Eagles free agents based on how likely they were to return. That is now moot.

Jonathan Tamari reports from an extra anonymous source that the Eagles won’t resign any of their free agents:

The Eagles will not pursue any of their own free agents, including starters such as Stewart Bradley, Quintin Mikell and Sav Rocca and backup running back Jerome Harrison, the Inquirer has learned.

As I said yesterday, this move is surprising, but not particularly shocking. None of the Eagles free agents were brilliant, must-keep stars. The only two guys I said even had a 50 percent chance or more of returning were Stewart Bradley and Sav Rocca. Both of those players would only have been convenient to resign. There are other free agents out there with at least equal talent.

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With that said, I hope the front office grabs some veteran competition at some of these spots like linebacker. The offense has Super Bowl talent. Would hate to see mistakes by rookies cost them.

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This thought probably deserves a full post, but I think we’re just now seeing the full impact of Bobby April, special teams ace. It’s not a coincidence that one year after April arrived both Akers and Rocca are out and the Eagles picked up both the top rookie kicker and top rookie punter (arguably) to replace them.

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I’m excited for Noel Devine. The Eagles have had plenty of success with pass-catching, punt-returning, fun-sized speed demons

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As I write this, Donovan McNabb is on the verge of being traded to the Vikings for a 6th round pick in 2012 and another 6th in 2012. Wow.

If the Cardinals are looking for a reason not to deal for Kolb, this is it. Andy Reid knows when to sell high on quarterbacks.

Photo from Getty.

Kolb Watch: Free Agency 1st Day Open Thread!

Today may be the last day that Kevin Kolb, the blog’s final namesake, is still an Eagle.

*single tear*

I’ll try to update as the rumors start to fly. You can also follow my minute to minute updates on Twitter. Jump right into the comment open thread though!

10:26 am - Eagles agree to terms with UDFAs WR Perry Baker, WR DeAndre Brown, RB Graig Cooper, P Chas Henry, QB Jerrod Johnson, DT Ced Thornton, LB Brandon Peguese, WR Terrance Turner and TE Martell Webb (According to @Eagles).

Some of these names were already reported. Henry is new though, I remember him as a good, consistent punter while at Florida. Perhaps I should have downgraded Rocca’s chances to return…

11:42 am - Michael Vick talked to the media and mentioned that DeSean Jackson “has some personal decisions he has to make” before reporting to camp (Source). Could he be considering a holdout? I bet Banner is on the phone right now with DeSean’s agent, reassuring them that an extension is a top priority.

5:35 pm - Jonathan Tamari for the Inquirer says “The Eagles will not pursue any of their own free agents.” He doesn’t mention his source, but he sounds very confident. If this is true, it’s certainly surprising. I thought they’d bring back at least a couple of their own guys.

However, I can’t say I’m totally shocked. Looking at the list again, there are no players who are guys the Eagles “have to sign.” I only listed Bradley and Rocca as having a greater than 50 percent chance of returning, and both of those were a matter of convenience, rather than need. The Eagles should have little problem finding guys of equal talent on the open market.

Which Eagles Free Agents Will Be Back in 2011?

The Eagles have 15 players who just became free agents. Some of them will return, but most will probably move on. Who will still be around when training camp starts later this week? Let’s break down their chances, from least likely to most likely:

0% — Antoine Harris, Bobby McCray, Reggie Wells: Who? I bet there aren’t more than a handful of fans who even remembered these guys were still on the team. I certainly forgot.

5% — Ernie Sims, Ellis Hobbs: Both short term rentals were acquired for middle round draft picks, and neither worked out. No reason to bring them back unless you really can’t find anyone else.

10% — Quintin Mikell, David Akers: Q had a good run here, and he still plays at a high level. But you just don’t draft two safeties in the second round and then give a soon-to-be 31-year-old a new contract. His leadership will be missed. Similar situation for Akers. Can’t last once your successor comes along.

20% — Max Jean-Gilles, Nick Cole, Omar Gaither, Akeem Jordan, Dimitri Patterson: Five young guys who each could return in the right circumstance as a backup and special team contributor, but their spots have already been filled by younger players with more upside. Time to move on.

35% — Jerome Harrison: Coming to the Eagles midway through the season, Harrison provided a spark on offense and was a huge boost over the previous backup running back, Mike Bell. I wouldn’t mind having him back, and neither would the Eagles, but I wonder if there are better fits out there for both parties. Harrison certainly would like a chance to start, if he can find the right opportunity.

60% — Stewart Bradley: With the rest of the linebacker corps young and unproven, the Eagles need at least one veteran presence. Bradley would be the logical choice, even for a one year contract. And yet the Eagles don’t seem all that interested in bringing #55 back. He might command more from another team on the open market, and there are other stopgap solutions (the only type of linebacker Andy Reid has ever seen) all over free agency.

85% — Sav Rocca: 2010 was quite possibly the Aussie’s best year yet as a punter. With no other plan in place, it would be surprising to see the Eagles let him walk.

Let me know if you disagree. And, as updates come flying in on Tuesday, join me in the comment section to sound off on the latest rumors and news.

Photo from Getty.