How The NFL Chewed Chip Kelly Up And Spit Him Out

When Chip Kelly entered the NFL in 2013, many people derided his offense as a "college" or "gimmick" system, with its unconventional no huddle, quarterback read option, plus other aspects of the spread. Kelly pioneered packaged play concepts (those run-pass hybrids) and play call communication techniques like giant signs and coaches doing weird hand signals. Anyone who thought that wouldn't work was wrong. His offense rocked the league in year one, putting up big numbers and carrying a terrible defense to the playoffs.

Many Eagles fans, including myself, enjoyed a victory lap. We taunted the idiotic commentators who questioned Chip's revolution and basked in the glory of his high octane offense. He looked like perhaps the best coach in the NFL, someone we could count on for a tactical advantage for years to come.

But the dirty truth is that winning in the NFL is a result of many, many things, and scheme isn't that high on the list. Actually, scheme may be the least important—because it's the one anybody can copy or subvert. The offensive elements that Chip brought to the league are already being adopted widely. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady borrowed one-word play calls and no huddle from Chip years ago, and both concepts are now widely practiced by teams as old school as the New York Giants. The read option is overtaking the classic I-formation as the trusted standby for numerous teams with mobile quarterbacks. Packaged plays are everywhere. Even his prized sports science may soon be table stakes.

Meanwhile, Kelly has had to make compromises on his core tenets. As it turns out, quarterbacks are not fungible at the NFL level. You can't go from Dennis Dixon to Jeremiah Masoli to Darron Thomas, winning all the way. Chip has struggled to fit indecisive, immobile QBs like Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford into his offense, its purest form diluted by the slow feet and damning inconsistencies of each signal caller.

And NFL defensive coordinators are getting paid too. Gone is Chip's surprise factor. These days, the Eagles offense is more likely to be surprised by the defense than the other way around. (Oddly, Chip's offense seems to have shrunk rather than grown over the years.) Recently, for example, defensive line stunts designed by smart defensive coaches like Rob Marinelli and Dan Quinn have crippled Kelly's vaunted interior run game.

Overall, the scheme playing field is being leveled. And as that advantage fades, other factors become much more important—talent being number one. Acquiring, developing, and retaining talent is 90% of what makes a good football team in the long term. Yes, the less-talented team can luck into a win for any one game. And luck and scheme and hard work can overcome the odds over the course of a season. But if you want to win consistently in a competitive league, you need more.

Just because you're a brilliant engineer doesn't make you a good salesman. Just because you can write doesn't mean you can add. Just because you're a star performer doesn't mean you can manage others. Yet in football, teams have a habit of assuming that their coach can do much more than coach.

Kelly is a smart coach, with a novel and mostly effective scheme. But he is a woeful manager of personnel. I wrote the offseason about the cascade effect of his poor decisions, and the list was long then. But it's getting longer. Sam Bradford looks like a timid check down artist. Byron Maxwell is doing a great Bradley Fletcher impression for $22 million guaranteed. The Evan Mathis cut was questionable from the start, but is appalling now with the current state of the offensive line—a unit whose problems have canceled out any positive effect of a shiny new stable of (expensive) running backs.

In college, Chip didn't have the constraints of the salary cap or the draft or free agency. He was never the best recruiter, but he did fine; from 2010-2012, his recruiting classes ranked top 15 in the country. (At most, Oregon played 3 games a season against opponents who recruited at that level, and went about .500 in those match-ups.) Every year he added another 20-25 new players to a scholarship roster of 85, a game day pool 60% larger than the NFL. If a recruit didn't work out, there was always someone else to take his place, and none of them ever got too old and slow or cost too much money.

Under those conditions, the scheme was just icing on the cake. Kelly maximized the talent advantage he already enjoyed, and thus he won most of the time. But in the NFL, talent margins are too thin to ever make scheme a permanent advantage. Defenders who weren't smart enough or fast enough to disrupt the Oregon offense never made it to the NFL, and the best players are rationed out to professional teams, keeping the league in a constant tumble of parity. Plus, coaches are, for the most part, smarter. They won't sit back and let you call the same three run plays over and over. Oh, and you actually need starting-caliber guards to execute any scheme.

Hopefully Kelly can make some rapid adjustments this week. He needs to add new wrinkles to his play calling and consider benching one or more of his under-performing linemen. He needs to prove that Bradford was worth the major investment the Eagles made for him. The team is only 0-2, and the rest of the NFC East is putrid. There's plenty of time to come back—if he starts right now.

Still, I worry that the NFL has caught up to Chip, and Chip hasn't caught up to the NFL. Opponents are all over his early scheme innovations. But Kelly never figured out the intricacies of running all the aspects of a professional football team, the job he aspired to and finally wrested from Howie Roseman this offseason. The NFL is a lot harder than it looks on Sunday, and maybe we're finally seeing that.

All-22 Odds And Ends From Week Two

There's always more to discuss, so while we're still in awe at Fletcher Cox's skills, let me sneak a few more All-22 nuggets under the wire before tomorrow's game.

First things first. Brandon Boykin needs to run to space when returning kickoffs, and use his blocker (Stanley Havili, marked in blue) as a guide. If he had picked the right hole below, he could have been one-on-one with the kicker.

Here's a really simple play that drew a big gain for the Eagles: 28 yard pass to Brent Celek. The funny thing about this play is, there are actually only two pass routes.

Jackson's end-around fake will suck in the Ravens LBs and CB, leaving space behind.

Leaving both Maclin and Celek wide open down the field.

Finally, I don't understand what the Eagles are doing when it comes to "safety valve" routes, where Michael Vick can throw when everything else is covered and/or he's under pressure. In most cases, when Vick even has a checkdown, it comes from LeSean McCoy blocking, then releasing into the middle.

That's tremendously ineffective for Vick. First, because he isn't tall enough to see over the line for McCoy. Second, because he's his own backup plan in the middle of the field. Having McCoy park there just draws defenders where Vick wants to scramble — like in this play below:

Vick can't even see McCoy. Plus, he's keeping defenders inside, where Vick wants to scramble.

Compare that to a typical Ravens play, where Joe Flacco has two easy options in the flat.

If you haven't seen it yet: check out my All-22 looks at Cox, Danny Watkins, and the Eagles first drive.

Other folks are also doing great stuff with Coaches Film too. See Derek Sarley here and here, Jimmy Kempski here, and Sheil Kapadia here and here.

Fletcher Cox For The Win

After watching the Eagles victory over the Ravens in All-22 coaches film yesterday, I was all prepared to write one big post about my observations. Then I realized I had too many images to comfortably load into one post. So last night, if you were around, I showed you one play that highlights Danny Watkins' improvement.

This morning, we'll look at this year's first round pick, a much more positive read. Fletcher Cox has flown under the radar since arriving in August. He did little of note in the preseason, and was outshined early on by rookie teammates Mychal Kendricks and Brandon Boykin. The trouble is, it's difficult to examine defensive tackle play, especially in real time. Unless they're getting sacks or tackles for a loss, trench players just don't stand out.

At least, until you turn on the coaches film. When I watched Cox against the Ravens, I saw a player who is already the Eagles best run stuffer and an emerging force in pass rushing. He routinely beat Ravens right guard Marshal Yanda, a sixth-year player who was re-signed last year to a $32 million contract and then earned All-Pro honors. By the end of the day, Cox was drawing double teams left and right, which allowed DeMeco Ryans to make some of his biggest plays.

Let's roll the film. Here's Cox, one on one with Yanda in the second quarter. Check out these three successive freeze-frames:

Looks like Yanda has him well-blocked one-on-one.

And he tosses the All-Pro to the ground in one move. Hello, Joe Flacco.

Here are two frames from a run play to the left, away from Cox. Yanda tries to cut-block him. Hilarity ensues.

The block worked. Oh no, our hero is on the ground!

Wait, not anymore. Now he's at the other hash, making the tackle on Ray Rice.

This is when the Ravens realize they have to start double-teaming Cox.

Or triple-teaming him, as the case may be.

Through his first two games, DeMeco Ryans is blowing away expectations for linebackers in this city. But one of the major reasons he's able to burst through the line on run plays is that he has Cox absorbing two blockers in front of him. Here are two Ravens run plays in the fourth quarter:

It's tough for me to not overhype Cox. This was only his second game in the NFL and he's already tossing All-Pro linemen around like rag dolls and soaking up double teams like he doesn't care. Plus, he's got a Trent Cole-esque motor. How many 300 lb. defensive tackles have the drive (and speed) to get up off the ground after a successful cut-block and still make the play? And he's still learning!

As the year goes on, surely Fletch will have his ups and downs. But there's already so much to love about the Eagles first round pick. Keep your eye on him.

See more All-22 film notes here.

The New Danny Watkins

I'll have more (and nicer) stuff tomorrow from my Game Rewind adventure, but tonight I'll just leave you with this masterpiece.

Previously: Breaking Down the Eagles First Two Drives

Breaking Down the Eagles First Drive

I finally got a chance to really work with the All-22 coaches tape everyone's been clamoring about, and many folks have put to great use. I charted the Eagles first two drives of the Baltimore game, drawing up the routes and schemes the Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg used to mostly great effect. Aside from the final play, I skipped the run downs. See it all below.

1. First play of the game, the Eagles keep seven players in to block and only run three pass routes. Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson (top) each go deep, but they're more distractions than anything. The Ravens surely focused all week on preventing the big play, and Reid wants to exploit that right away. The four defensive backs marked with yellow Xs are all focused on keeping Maclin and Jackson from doing anything. That clears out space for Brent Celek to run a crossing route across the middle. With the weakside linebacker blitzing, the Ravens have only the MIKE to cover the middle of the field. Eyes in the backfield, presumably in case Michael Vick scrambles, he loses track of Celek. Easy pitch and catch for the first down.

2. Similar play in effect. Macline clears out two players with a deep route, and Jason Avant, who motions pre-snap, attracts two linebackers to him in the flat. The Ravens, stuck in zone coverage, strand two defensive backs on the other side of the field. Jackson, who lines up in the slot, gets a mismatch on a linebacker. Another easy first down completion.

3. Run to LeSean McCoy. 2 yard gain.

4. Bubble screen to DeSean. I think they're trying to take advantage of the deep safety (20+ yards away) and what they think is a blitzing slot corner (marked in blue). When he doesn't blitz, DeSean has nowhere to go.

5. Ravens threaten blitz here and put eight guys in the box, but they only rush three and drop rest back into coverage. Vick rifles ball to Avant, who sits down in hole in the zone. First down. If he needed, McCoy was available as a checkdown after he wasn't needed to block.

6. Eagles run a play action fake to the right which draws linebackers (red Xs) to right. Celek scrapes across and out the other side, which is open after Maclin runs decoy deep route (again). Beats linebackers, but Ed Reed (blue) diagnoses the play extraordinarily quickly and keeps Celek to 5 yard gain.

7. Run to Damaris Johnson. First down.

8. Run to Stanley Havili. 1 yard.

9. Eagles go five wide with two tight ends. Vick first looks left to Maclin and Avant, but both are covered. He then turns to Celek in middle, but help from that dropping linebacker means he's not open either. Vick doesn't have time to look to his right for Clay Harbor or Jackson, as he's immediately flushed from the pocket after King Dunlap can't sustain his block. Should have run out of bounds or thrown it away, but Vick was picked when he tried to force it to Harbor.

1. Back after the Trent Cole strip-sack: run to LeSean McCoy, no gain.

2. Run to McCoy, big gain. Dunlap called for holding.

3. Run to McCoy, no gain. Ray Lewis reads it.

4. At the bottom, Desean a runs deep post, while Celek runs an out route right at the safety. With Harbor's short route in the flat drawing two defenders, both have single coverage. 19 yards to Celek.

5. 4th and 1 run to McCoy.

6. 1st down run to Brown.

7. Eagles bring Avant in motion designed to get Jackson on-one-one in the slot against a safety or linebacker. Instead, the slot corner follows Avant over, blankets Jackson. Ravens bring eight on blitz, get to Vick. Roughing the passer called, though.

8. Here's the McCoy TD run. It's a really odd blocking scheme. On the left, Dunlap, Harbor, and Havili block as if it's a stretch to that side. On the right, everyone but extra tackle Demetress Bell blocks in the opposite direction. That leaves two Ravens defenders (red) in the middle where the hole should be. Evan Mathis lets BOTH go to engage the second level. How do the Eagles plan to block them? For the lineman on the left, they simply freeze him with Havili's motion to the left. The other one breaks through the line when Bell doesn't get there in time. Luckily, he's more focused on putting a hit on Vick than stopping McCoy.

Safeties Stepping Up

Mike Tanier, over at his new home Sports on Earth, has a quick look at one Eagles defensive change at halftime designed to inhibit the Ravens' tight end-centered attack. Interestingly, Juan Castillo apparently didn't order the change, but rather it was the defensive backs acting on their own (or perhaps under the authority of shadow-coordinator Todd Bowles). Check it out.

By the Numbers: Eagles Triumph Over Ravens

If the ending of the Browns game came as a collective sigh of relief among Eagles fans, this one point win was a jubilant scream. Despite more turnovers, penalties, and a spate of injuries that grounded three offensive starters, the Eagles beat what looks like at worst a solid contender and at best a team primed to make a deep playoff run. Kudos all around. Let's go to the numbers:

71.9 = Michael Vick's completion percentage. That's Vick's second-highest single-game completion percentage since he came to Philly. He still isn't out of the woods; that end zone interception on the first drive was too ambitious, and he almost had a third pick when he tried to force the ball to Brent Celek in the red zone, but this was a much better version of Vick.

36.0 = Average QB rating vs Eagles defense. Average QB rating in opponents' other games (both vs CIN): 121.7. Great stat find by The Guy On The Couch, at the very least it shows how much better the Eagles D is compared to the Bengals D.

42:31 = Eagles pass-run play call ratio. The actual ratio of passes to runs tilts the other way because of Vick's scrambles, but overall Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg called a fairly balanced attack (especially compared to last week). Two other notes on this. One: LeSean McCoy clearly has a pitch count. Otherwise they wouldn't have given six early carries to Bryce Brown/Stanley Havili/Damaris Johnson. Two: the pitch count makes it obvious early on when the Eagles are going to focus on the run. If the coaches know they want to run more, they work hard to limit McCoy's touches early in order to preserve him for later.

9 = Eagles turnovers in their first two games. It's amazing that the Eagles have managed to win twice with these turnovers (plus other mistakes like penalties). The only five teams with worse turnover margins are a combined 3-7 so far. What does DeSean Jackson think about this?

"If you cut away those turnovers, the best team in the league," he said, "period, hands down."

30 = Possessions by Eagles opponents in two games. Not to harp on the same theme, but the defense has had to deal with the ramifications of those turnovers. Let me put it this way: the Ravens offense racked up 44 points in 10 drives against the Bengals. They could only muster 23 points in 14 drives against the Eagles.

70 = Defensive snaps for both DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. They played every down yesterday. Looks like the linebacker shuffle may be over, at long last.

19.6 = Yards per catch for Celek. The Eagles tight end had a tremendous game, not the least of which was his vault over Hall of Fame safety Ed Reed. I think this will be easier to see on All-22, but it seems that the Ravens—like the Browns before them—kept their safeties deep to prevent the long ball. That opened up a lot of space in the middle of the field for Celek to exploit in crossing routes. One of the things that such success suggests, however, is how much better Vick is throwing to larger targets. At least until Riley Cooper returns, Celek is by far the Eagles biggest receiver—and that's unfortunate.

25 = Pass targets, out of 42 total, for Ray Rice and Dennis Pitta. Again, tough to tell before the All-22 is released, but it seemed that the Eagles were very effective in man coverage on the Ravens wide receivers. Aside from a few breakdowns, like Jacoby Jones beating Nnamdi Asomugha with a double move or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie inexplicably bailing out of coverage on Torrey Smith down the sideline, Flacco couldn't get anything going on the outside or up the field. He was forced to check down to his tight end and running back, a trade-off the Eagles will take every time. There's definitely room to improve against those players, though. Nate Allen and Kurt Coleman each had trouble at times keeping up with Pitta/Rice.

2 = Back-to-back Eagles wins by a single point. Last season, the Eagles went 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less. This year, they've won two straight by a single point. I think some of the "if this were 2011, they would have lost" talk is misleading, because this isn't about "heart" or something similarly abstract. A large part is substantive improvement in the defense. In both games, the Eagles opponent had ample time to mount a game-winning drive in the final seconds (and the Ravens certainly had the kicker to pull it off). The difference in 2012 is that the defense is good enough that it can shut down an offense in the last moments.

Photo from Getty.

Mister Rodgers-Cromartie's Neighborhood

Cullen Jenkins puppet is for real.

Week Two
Baltimore Ravens @ Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 pm EST on CBS