Time's Up

I'm not going to crucify Andy Reid for still playing LeSean McCoy late in the game Sunday, even with the score out of reach. His concussion, in hindsight, was avoidable, and Reid's rationale for keeping him in was ridiculous. But benching McCoy would require that your coach give up on the season and start building for 2013.

That's not Reid's job. He's been here for 14 years and is about to be fired. Why should he coach for a future that doesn't exist for him? Why should he care?

I said last week that the Eagles shouldn't wait until after the season to fire Reid. The McCoy injury now sets that idea in sharper context. This season is lost. There's no salvaging it. Even a respectable finish at this point is unlikely and undesirable. All that's left is to play for 2013: lose as many games as possible, evaluate your players for next season, and keep your confirmed stars from serious injury.

It's time for Jeffrey Lurie to step up. He's in control. He needs to fire Reid, promote Marty Mornhinweg to interim head coach, and finish out this sad season with an eye toward the future. Kick-start the coaching search. Evaluate players and plan the cuts you are going to make. Make the decision on what to do with Michael Vick, who's owed $3 million just a few days after the Super Bowl.

There's nothing admirable about letting this play out for the next six weeks. And, as McCoy shows, there's actually a tremendous downside to doing so. Time to move on.

Photo from Getty.

How the Cardinals Exploited the Eagles Defense

I didn’t set out to determine what happened in last Sunday’s fourth quarter collapse. Instead, I only wanted to know how the Eagles attempted to cover Larry Fitzgerald during the entire game. The subsequent conclusion only came by accident.

I re-watched every Cardinals offensive play and recorded where Fitzgerald lined up, the Eagles player who matched up across from him, the result of the play, and my best assessment of the coverage scheme. My full notes can be found in this Google spreadsheet.

Let’s start by looking at Fitzgerald and the Eagles through the first three quarters. Here’s what I complied starting with where the receiver lined up, who covered him and how, and the results of passes targeted at him.

1st-3rd Quarters (52 plays)
Slot (6)
(3) DRC press, 1-1, 42 yards
(2) Hanson off, 0-0
(1) Coleman off, 0-0

Flanker/Split End - Right (24)
(19) Samuel off, 1-3, 12 yards, 1 TD, 1 int — Mostly zone, zone blitz
(4) Samuel press, 0-0

Flanker/Split End - Left (24)
(16) Asomugha press, 0-1 — Mostly man to man
(6) Asomugha off, 1-1, 15 yards (called back, off. holding)
(1) DRC press, 0-0

For starters, we see that Fitzgerald lined up wide on both sides of the formation equally, 24 plays each, with 6 slot appearances thrown into the mix. When Fitzgerald was in the slot, he received a mixed bag of coverage and caught one big pass against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (didn’t help that Kurt Coleman missed a tackle). Against Asante Samuel on the right side, Fitzgerald mostly encountered zone coverage between Samuel and Jaiquawn Jarrett. Finally, on the left, Nnamdi Asomugha largely played man-to-man press coverage.

Overall, Juan Castillo’s secondary did well against Fitzgerald through three quarters. They limited his targets to only 6 in 52 plays and only 2 official receptions. The touchdown came when Fitzgerald cut inside against the zone and split two linebackers.

So what happened in the fourth quarter?

4th Quarter (21 plays)
Slot (5)
(2) Asomugha off, 0-0
(1) DRC press, 0-0
(1) Hanson off, 1-1, 11 yards
(1) Coleman off, 0-0

Flanker/Split End - Right (8)
(7) Samuel off, 4-6, 83 yards, 1 TD
(1) Hanson press, 0-0

Flanker/Split End - Left (8)
(7) Asomugha press, 0-1
(1) Asomugha off, 0-0

Fitzgerald took a few extra snaps in the slot, which Castillo partially countered by assigning Asomguha to a couple of those plays. Yet again Fitzgerald split his time equally on both sides. The big difference came in the number of targets and completions against Samuel in zone coverage on the right side.

John Skelton only targeted Fitzgerald 6 times total through the first three quarters. That pattern continued in the fourth quarter in all but one formation. Skelton threw to his big target 6 times just in the final quarter against Samuel.

That wouldn’t be a big deal except that he also completed 4 of those passes for 83 yards and one touchdown, including the biggest play of the game, when Samuel let his man go and Jarrett got beat deep, leading to the game-winning touchdown.

There’s blame enough for all. Samuel certainly didn’t play at a Pro Bowl level and Jarrett looked like a rookie making his first start. But the most damning thing is how predictable the defense looked in each formation. By the time the fourth quarter arrived, the Cardinals knew exactly the type of match up they’d have on Fitzgerald in each position, and they exploited that by attacking the Eagles tandem on the right side for the final 15 minutes.

On that game-changing pass, for example, the Cardinals knew that if they stuck Fitzgerald on the right side, chances were he’d be in zone coverage with Samuel on the outside and Jarrett deep. A crossing route underneath to woo Asante, a double move to fool the rookie, and the Cardinals won the game.

That’s how you lose five fourth quarter leads.

Photo from Getty.

By the Numbers: What an Embarrassment

There were a number of awful parts to the latest Eagles debacle. But by far the worst, to my mind, was the utterly embarrassing play of Michael Vick.

Eagles fans are used to Andy Reid refusing to run the ball. They are used to seeing a wide receiver corps that consists of a bunch of 3rd stringers. At this point, the inability of the back seven to provide any deterrence in coverage or protect yet another fourth quarter lead is commonplace and expected.

Vick had his legs yesterday, and made some typically great scrambles. But his passing was atrocious on a number of levels. Certainly the defense deserves a lot of blame today, but a $100 million quarterback cannot be outplayed by John Skelton. That’s inexcusable.

47.1% = Michael Vick’s completion percentage. That was the second-most inaccurate performance Vick has had since he returned to the NFL, and it contributed to his worst quarterback rating since 2006. I know he was missing his two favorite targets, but I’m not sure they would have helped much. Vick kept making terrible decisions, throwing into double coverage more than once. Truthfully, he’s lucky to only have two interceptions.

6 = LeSean McCoy carries in the second half. The second half playcalling was perhaps the worst by Marty Mornhinweg since he assumed those duties in 2006. Vick was having a poor day and was missing both Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. McCoy was his typical self, running at a 5.8 yard per carry average — much higher than Vick’s 3.8 passing yards per attempt. And yet, with a touchdown lead, the solution was to pass?

8 = Punts by Chas Henry. He only had 20 total through the first 8 games.

3/4 = Cardinals red zone touchdown efficiency. Same as last week.

146 = Receiving yards for Larry Fitzgerald. When Fitzgerald lined up against Nnamdi Asomugha last year against Oakland, the cornerback held him to only 2 receptions for 26 yards. This year, whatever Juan Castillo’s plan was, it didn’t involve copying that successful formula. Both Asomugha and Asante Samuel had key interceptions, but Skelton continued to find Fitzgerald in mismatches against linebackers and even rookie safety Jaiquawn Jarrett.

30th = Cardinals’ Football Outsiders DVOA rank prior to this week. They are a bad team. And they didn’t even have their starting quarterback. So what does that tell us about the Eagles? They are truly disgraceful.

Photo from Getty.

Deceptive Moves, Deceptive Speed

Those are Cardinals?

Week Ten
Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles
1:00 pm ET on FOX

PS: I’ll be in the press box, so follow along @Brian_Solomon for real-time updates.