Derek Sarley:
Let's look at every passing play in the Lions game and see why those statements carry so much meaning.
Wait, every Detroit passing play? Every Eagles coverage? You can't be serious.
Must read, obviously.
Who Do You Blame For The Eagles' Collapse?
One thing I try very hard to do after every game is approach the evaluation and apportioning of blame objectively. Rarely will you see me harping on the same thing week after week. There's a time to blame Michael Vick, for example, and a time to blame those around him. There's a time to blame Juan Castillo, and a time to give him a pass.
This week, for the first hours after the game finished, I couldn't figure out where to place blame. With 5 minutes left, the Eagles were up 10 points and had a 90 percent win probability according to Advanced NFL Stats. I'm sure I wasn't the only one anticipating a 4-2 record going into the bye, and a locker room full of optimistic players and coaches. The defense had held their ground against Calvin Johnson. The offense had started slowly but rebounded to take a commanding 4th quarter lead.
Then, almost inexplicably, the team collapsed. They had two offensive drives. Both flopped, one on a catastrophic scale. Both defensive drives were failures as well.
Plenty of blame to go around when something like that happens. Coaching, to start. Andy Reid deserves significant blame for allowing such a total failure. Castillo, who Nnamdi (Best Game As An Eagle) Asomugha seemed to point to for changing the play calling in the final minutes. Fletcher Cox for getting himself ejected. Nate Allen for getting himself hurt (kidding).
Ultimately, my ire falls on the units in the trenches. Reid has always said that you build your team from the lines outward. Somehow he's failed at that this year. The Eagles offensive line seems to be at a low point in Reid's tenure. A combination of injuries to two critical members, general lack of depth, a former first round draft pick who remains awful, and two generally solid guys having down years. Vick made two poor throws that resulted in interceptions, but otherwise played good enough to win. The offensive line nearly got him killed, though, culminating in a 3 play, -21 yard overtime opening drive.
The real head-scratcher is on the other side of the line, where the Eagles should be getting tons of pressure. As has certainly been parroted around Philadelphia by now, the defense has now gone 3 games without a sack. Just one, in the right situation, might have been enough to win yesterday's game. After the game, players like Cullen Jenkins and Darryl Tapp seemed as surprised as anyone else. They kept repeating mantras about teams using more protection, but there was little passion behind those excuses.
This team is now 3-3, which means that at least in the standings, they've made little improvement from last year's "unacceptable" performance. They better find some way to fix this, or the 2013 Eagles team is going to be the start of a new rebuilding era.
Photo from Getty.
A Questionable Decision
Not a long post today because I’m on the road (bye week excuse), but I just wanted to touch on an question that’s been bugging me since the Eagles-Redskins game last Sunday.
Why did the Eagles not try to kick the field goal on fourth and two from the Redskins 32 yard line, with three minutes left in the third quarter?
A successful field goal in that spot puts them up 23 to 6, meaning the Redskins would need three scores to get even or go ahead. That was an unlikely proposition given that their offense was led by Rex Grossman. But Andy Reid opted to go for the first down instead.
Making a field goal from that distance certainly isn’t easy. Last year kickers made only 75 percent of kicks between 40 and 50 yards. A 47-harder would have been on the lower end of that too. But converting the first down is no picnic either — it’s roughly in the range of 55 to 60 percent likelihood.
What did the Eagles stand to gain with that first down? A touchdown doesn’t do you significantly more good at that spot than a field goal. And even if you make the first down, there’s a good chance you still won’t reach the end zone.
So why did Reid go for it? Was it the better strategic decision? Does he want to set a new, aggressive tone, like he has told the media a few times? Or could it be something else?
Perhaps something like he doesn’t trust his rookie placekicker? You know, the one who has attempted just a single field goal this season over 38 yards.
Just a thought.
By the Numbers: Look, It's a Running Back!
Finally, a win.
It wasn’t always pretty, but at least the Eagles have grabbed back a bit of pride going into the bye week. I shudder to think what the next two weeks would have been like at 1-5. Let’s break down the game a little bit, shall we?
28 = Carries by LeSean McCoy. Ah, sweet run game. As I said last week, not increasing McCoy’s workload would be a fire-able offense. So Andy Reid and company get to keep their jobs, at least for now (even though after the game McCoy intimated that having so many runs wasn’t the plan). I think the plan was to protect the offensive line, and on Sunday that meant a heavy dose of McCoy, as well as short drops and quick passes. Michael Vick did his job, not trying to hold on to the ball too long. Most of the time it was three/five steps, immediate throw.
+2 = Eagles turnover differential. How to lose games, for dummies: turn the ball over. Vick and Vince Young each threw an interception, so that hasn’t improved much. But the defense, with a career performance by Kurt Coleman and a huge assist from Rex Grossman, showed up to play.
9 of 17 = Receptions, of total, by the Redskins tight ends and running backs. The Eagles defense did a good job against the run for the first time this year (only 42 yards on 14 carries). But they definitely didn’t solve their tight end problem, seeing as Fred Davis was basically Washington’s only offensive threat. At least on the first watch, it looked like Jamar Chaney was covering Davis on the majority of plays, and he didn’t inspire much confidence in that role. Still, if that’s the biggest problem on defense, the Eagles can live (and win) with it.
2:27 = Time remaining in the second quarter, after which the Eagles let up 13 unanswered points the rest of the game. This kind of inconsistent effort is why I didn’t want to celebrate last week’s second half comeback. Through six weeks, this team has yet to play a complete game. If you want to win consistently (read: against quarterbacks with a sense of ball control), you need to play well for more than a quarter here and there.
Photo from Getty.
Time to Unleash LeSean McCoy
As I described yesterday, the odds of the Eagles finishing off the season with only two losses and making the playoffs are very small. Anyone who has watched this team for even a few minutes can tell that this is a below .500 club right now. And I have little hope that the main issues plaguing the team will be fixed any time soon.
But I can be convinced that the Eagles will win on Sunday against the Redskins, in spite of those issues. I think that requires one thing: unleashing LeSean McCoy.
Let me try to illustrate just how great McCoy’s season has been through five games. Only seven running backs in the last 20 years with more than 100 carries in a season have scored higher than 30 percent on Football Outsiders rushing DVOA, a statistic that measures performance above the average player. If McCoy can keep it up, his will be the highest of all of them:
- 2011 LeSean McCoy — 39.1%
- 2000 Marshall Faulk — 35.0%
- 2010 Jamaal Charles — 33.9%
- 2002 Priest Holmes — 31.1%
- 2003 Onterrio Smith — 30.8%
- 2006 Marion Barber — 30.5%
- 2004 Larry Johnson — 30.0%
And this isn’t a fluke. McCoy has the highest yards per carry average in the NFL among running backs with at least 30 carries. He is tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns, first all-purpose. This production is despite an offensive line suffering from injuries, poor blocking by rookies and journeyman free agents, and a general inability to gain an inch on short yardage and goal line plays. Oh, and he’s seemingly the only Eagles offensive skill player to not have a fumble. That is a historic season in the making.
Yet, even by Andy Reid’s low standards, McCoy hasn’t gotten nearly enough touches. There are 13 running backs with more rushing attempts. If you look at rushing attempts by team, the Eagles are ranked fifth. But that includes Michael Vick’s 38 scrambles. Take those away, and the Eagles are suddenly 29th.
McCoy was handed the ball only 20 times in the last two games. To let that trend continue against Washington would be a crime. The Redskins have the fifth-ranked defensive DVOA this year, but are just 17th in run defense. Furthermore, it would take the pressure off Vick, expose play-action pass opportunities downfield, and keep the woeful Eagles defense on the sideline.
There is no easier gameplan than pitting your biggest strength against the opponent’s biggest weakness (See: Gonzalez, Tony vs. Eagles LBs). Missing that opportunity with McCoy in week six — and the rest of the season — would be a fire-able offense.
Photo from Getty