Coach Chip Strikes Back, Or Something

It's amazing what a win over Dallas will do for your spirits. The Eagles went into the bye week at 3-4, reeling from a loss to Carolina that wasn't particularly close. Post-bye, post-victory over a hated rival, and they're 4-4, with the wind at their back, a rejuvenated team.

All it took was a few fourth down tries, a revived running game, and a kicker that finally made a clutch field goal longer than 50 yards. Suddenly it's "the biggest win of the Chip Kelly era" (which is really saying something about the Chip Kelly era, unfortunately).

Sam Bradford is fixed. He's "continuing to flip the script on his legion of detractors". Apparently, the main issue was footwork, with QB coach Ryan Day noticing a problem three weeks back. "The results have been evident," writes the Inquirer.

Have they?

Via XKCD

The funny thing about the win on Sunday night is that on paper, not a lot looks different from the losses earlier in the season. If you're going to give the Eagles credit for any improvement, it has to be in the run game, where they've reeled off four straight games with more than 150 rushing yards. Kelly also seems to be mixing up the play calling a bit better. 

But Bradford suddenly proving he's the guy of the future? This team, suddenly a legit playoff contender? Seems like wishful thinking.

Take Bradford on Sunday. His stats were solid: 25 for 36, 69% completion rate, 295 yards, 8.2 yards per attempt, 1 TD, 0 INTs. But the funny thing about those numbers is how much they were influenced by one great overtime drive. In regulation, his stats weren't quite so good: 20 for 31, 65% completion rate, 239 yards, 7.7 yards per attempt, 0 TD, 0 INT. That's arguably worse than Matt Cassel, who completed a higher percentage of passes for more yards and 3 TDs (plus one bad INT).

The point is not that Bradford's game-winning drive has no value. But just remember that he was one Caleb Sturgis screw up or one heads-tails controversy from being the same just-good-enough-to-lose Bradford we've seen all season. If Jordan Hicks tears his pectoral muscle before grabbing that pick six, the Eagles don't make it to overtime and there is no "Sam Bradford has fixed it" narrative worth telling.

Nor, really, is there one for the Eagles, who had two weeks to prepare and narrowly avoided falling to a Cowboys team that lost 5 straight games coming in and had posted just 91 passing yards against Seattle a week earlier. This is a 4-4 team that has played a bunch of bad teams in a bad division. Luckily, they play more going forward: their next three opponents are a combined 7-17.

Maybe this group has finally turned a corner, and will cruise to 7-4 before heading to New England. I hope so. But don't be surprised if this turnaround is a mirage, and inconsistency dooms the Eagles to underperform down the stretch. That would simply be par for the course this season.

There Is No Escape

Last week, we knew it was the end times. Some folks still grasped at the straws of denial, clinging to the hope of playing another bad team. Maybe the ship would right itself once more. Maybe Andy Reid could salvage something from this burgeoning train wreck of a season.

It was, as I think all Eagles fans knew deep down, not going to happen. This Eagles team has passed the event horizon of failure, and every week we just get one more week closer to the inevitable conclusion.

It's not that I think Reid is a bad coach in the abstract. I would seriously consider hiring him if I were the owner of another franchise. But as close as Reid came to a Super Bowl win, as amazing as his sustained success in Philadelphia was — everything has to end, and most of the time it doesn't end well.

This Eagles team he has assembled is bad in more ways than we can count, starting with what has devolved into easily the worst offensive line in the Reid era, a pitiful shadow of the team's former strength. Bad draft picks and an over-reliance on free agency have created a roster that's simultaneously past its prime and woefully inexperienced. Injuries have left huge holes at positions with zero depth.

But what drives this far over the edge is the complete collapse of anything resembling a team. Sure, there was a players-only meeting last week. Whoop-de-do. This team is falling apart. Veteran stars are admitting it's over. Others have turned on the fans. Your quarterback thinks he's going to be benched, while his brother demands a trade. Joe Banner, or, I mean, a front office "decision-maker" is twisting the knife. Am I missing anything?

Reid's ability to keep this team competitive long term without a hard reboot was impressive. But it desperately needs one now — and not just in the locker room. The Eagles need new voices coaching and scouting and signing. It's not unlike what happened to the Indianapolis Colts in 2011. Going without Peyton Manning (Eagles version = Jason Peters?) exposed a lot of weaknesses in that organization, and crazy Twitter personality and owner Jim Irsay made the tough call to clean house. So far, the results have been positive for them (yes, Andrew Luck helps).

That's what's needed in Philadelphia. But until then, we'll just have to slog through the rest of this miserable season.

Photo from Getty.

By the Numbers: Season Over

The Eagles are indisputably less than the sum of their parts. Not that those parts on their own are all great, but any team with this type of talent should be better than that.

That’s coaching.

35% = Completion percentage on passes to Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson. Brent Celek was the Eagles leading receiver for the second straight week. On one hand, it’s a welcome change to see Celek finally becoming an offensive weapon again. But Celek’s emergence has come in part because defenses have largely shut down the Eagles best receiving threats. Last week that wasn’t a problem, but it’s tough when your top two wideouts only get the ball six times total.

0 = Sacks and hits on Jay Cutler. Jim Washburn’s pass rush has been stellar for most of the season, but it didn’t show up last night. The Bears came into the game ranked 27th in adjusted sack rate. Everyone expected the Eagles defense to get pressure on Cutler, but it didn’t happen.

2 = Bears Pro Bowl linebackers. It’s amazing what some competent linebacker play can do.

3/4 = Bears red zone touchdown efficiency. You can’t win if you don’t do better in the red zone. The Eagles defense was worst in the league last year in the red zone, and Sean McDermott was shown the door. The team is just as bad this year.

133 = Rushing yards by Matt Forte. Same old, same old. The Eagles won two games, and people pushed  the problems we had seen for weeks to the back of the bandwagon bus. But they never went away.

1/2 = Eagles red zone touchdown efficiency. The offense right now is like a thoroughbred with asthma. You can see the potential, especially when Michael Vick does something no other quarterback can do, or when LeSean McCoy and Jason Peters tag team the defense. But at the end of the day they just can’t keep those moments coming. You know an untimely interception or a dropped pass is just waiting to sideline them again.

3-5 = Eagles record through eight games.

Photo from Getty.

Slappy the Bear

Rule #4: Make sure Jason Kelce knows you’re in shotgun!

Week Nine
Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles
8:30 pm ET on ESPN

Must Win on Monday Night

“If the Bears prevail, nobody is going to write that the Eagles’ season is over,” says Les Bowen.

Not so sure about that. I might.

Lets take a look at the Eagles’ playoff chances. Football Outsiders’ odds prior to this weekend gave them a 34 percent chance of making the postseason. The team was slightly more likely to win the division than the wild card, a result of a rather weak division.

But the Giants’ win over the Patriots last night put them a few lengths ahead of the rest of NFC East field. The Cowboys also won, meaning the Eagles — if they lost tonight — would be behind the leader by three games and the second-place team by a game. That scenario is not pretty.

And a loss to the Bears puts the Eagles further behind in the wild card standings as well. The Lions are way ahead at 6-2. The Eagles, at 3-5, would be two games down to both Chicago and Atlanta, both of whom would also have head-to-head victories against Philadelphia. They’d also be a game back of Tampa Bay and the Cowboys.

To make the playoffs with 8 games left, the Eagles would have to go 7-1 the rest of the way and still get lucky, hoping that five out of the six teams ahead of them flop. Sure, there would be a token chance. But at that point, you’re really just playing for pride and Andy Reid’s future.

Demolishing the Cowboys last week was a necessary step, and it showed that there’s still a chance the Eagles could close out the season with a big winning streak. But the margin for error is razor-thin, especially against another team in the wild card hunt.

Photo from Getty.